moonslav59

So, as we get nearer to the end of the 2024 season, most likely on a disappointing note, once again, here is a look at the what the foundation of the 2025 40 man roster might look like: 8 Free Agents to Be: Jansen, Martin, O'Neill, Pivetta, Jansen, Garcia, Sims, Paxton 5 IL (60 Day) Players to be added over the winter: Giolito, Whitlock, Hendriks, Mata, Murphy (I'm assuming Story will be added before the season ends. These two groups pretty much cancel each other out and leave us at 37, before making any additions and subtractions to prepare for Rule 5, and trades/signings. 28 Keepers (could trade): Duran, Devers, Houck, Casas, Story, Abreu, Rafaela, Bello, Crawford, Whitlock, Wong, Hendriks, Winckowski, Yoshida, DHam, Slaten, Criswell, Priester, Kelly, Weissert, Perales, Bernardino, I Campbell, Grissom, Guerrero, Romy G, EValdez, Refsnyder (assuming no retirement) 7 Bubble: Heineman, Murphy, Wikelman, Booser, Sogard, Shugart, Gasper 2 DFA/Trade very likely or certain: Dalbec, Horn Add 5-6: for Rule 5 Protection: Fulmer, Fitts, Dobbins, Jh Garcia, Monegro, Castro Bubble Rule 5: Bastardo, Gambrell, Hickey, Liu, Sikes Non Rule 5 Prospects that could be added: Anthony, Mayer, Campbell, Teel, Meidroth, Sandlin (I think we hold off adding any of these players until the last minute, so I will not list any for the opening day projection.) My Opening Day 26 with others on the 40 in parenthesis: (*IL Giolito w Criswell as #5 and Weissert to #8 RP) SP: Houck, Giolito*, Bello, Crawford, Priester (Fitts, Dobbins, Monegro. Perales, Wikelman) RP: Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Kelly, Fulmer, Criswell*, Winckowski, Bernardino (Weissert*, I Campbell, Guerrero, Booser, Murphy) C: Wong, Heineman 1B: Casas 2B: DHam, Grissom SS: Story, Romy (Sogard) 3B: Devers LF: Duran (Castro) CF: Rafaela (Jh Garcia) RF: Abreu, Refsnyder DH Yoshida (E Valdez) Now, we know we will make trades and sign some FAs, and some will need to be added to the 40 man, and likely some to the 26. Personally, I think we try to trade EValdez & Wikelman, but I'm not sure other teams, who also have roster crunches are looking to add a platoon DH and struggling AA pitcher to their 40, so they may end up being DFA'd. However, neither is at the top of my DFA list. To DFA, if no trades for them or for others that could open slots on the 40: 1. Murphy 2. Wikelman 3. Sogard (maybe Romy) 4. EValdez 5. Heinemen (but a catcher would need to be added, like Teel) 6. Castro 7. Booser _________________________________ Here is my actual 26 man projection (not my wish list): SP: __Add__, Houck, Bello, Crawford, Gio/Priester/Fitts/Criswell RP: __Add__, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, __Add__, Wink, Kelly, Fulmer C: Wong, Heineman (or a cheap add) 1B: Casas 2B: DHam- Romy or Grissom (other in AAA) SS: Story, Sogard 3B: Devers LF: Duran CF: Rafaela RF: Abreu-Ref DH: Yoshida I know: not very imaginative. We might add Anthony or Campbell to the opening day 40 and 26 on day one. If it's Anthony, I think we trade Abreu or Yoshida. If It's Campbell, maybe we trade DHam or Grissom, or keep both for minor league depth. We could trade to fill a pitching slot, listed above or just add another pitcher, or trade for a RHB to play RF.

Piester is on the 40, already.

No problem. Thanks for the update.

If we add anyone to the 40, it might be a guy who we may add in December for Rule 5 protection, like Guerrero would have: Dobbins Fitts (We may protect Monegro & JH Garcia, but they won't be called up, soon.)

If we are able to find a taker for Yoshida, could we try to sign O'Neill to be the DH? O'Neill is a top 7 batter vs LHPs since 2023, and maybe he could stay healthy not playing D. I don't see many RHBs on the trade market that fit into a slot better than who we have already. Trade Yoshida nd cash for _____. Trade Abreo & Wink for a pitcher and sign O'Neill?

Maybe cut ties with Garcia or Sims?

Does the CWS take Teel, Abreu, DHam and Wink for Crochet? (Technically, they don't have to add Teel to the 40, so it's 3 for 1.) How about... 2 arbs of Crochett and 3 years of Luis Roberts Jr at $55M for Mayer, Abreu, Winckoski, Fiits & Sandlin

Give Meidroth a few weeks to make a small impression.... or not.

then, talk amongst yourselves...

Agreed, but I do think many teams would value any of the 3 I mentioned more than their #39 or #40 guy, but that is not always how it works. Why trade something good to get a good player plus another that just slightly upgrades your #40 guy? I do think a team like the CWS would enjoy having all 3 I mentioned. All would be starters.

Makes sense. I think I'm higher on Cespedes and his bat than some.

I think we "sell high" on DHam, this winter- maybe in a package with Abreu and or Wink.

Probably/Maybe: +.022 Duran since AUG 15 -.047 Devers same time period

LOL. So much is still left unsaid!

Sox Top Prospects by ETA (soxprospects.com with tweaks) 2025: 1 Anthony, 2 Mayer, 3 Campbell, 4 Teel, 9 Meidroth (all listed as "early '25) 12 Fitts, 18 Dobbins, 19 Penrod, 27. Guerrero 2026: 6 Perales (they have him as '27) 11 Sandlin, 14 Romero, 15 Jh Garcia, 16 Castro, 22 Monegro 2027: 5 Montgomery, 8 Bleis, 13 Tolle, 21 E R-C 2028: 7 Arias, 10 Cespedes, 17 Jo Garcia, 24 Valera

Nice article. I think Bailey is helping us get turned into a better direction. I hope the farm development changes do the same. Many argue it was a mistake putting Whitlock into the rotation, and I'm not sure how much Bailey had to do with that. Whit's injury after 4 GS confirmed the reason to be worried, but one could also look and say, Whit did a fine job in those 4 starts. Bello did worse than expected. Houck & Crawford: better. I still like the addition of Bailey, despite our recent woes. Gio was supposed to be our IP leader. Houck and Crawford are already at career IP highs. Pivetta was a bit of a disappointment. The pen pick-up, except for Slaten, almost all bombed: I Campbell, Weissert, Garcia, Sims, Anderson, Keller, Wingenter, Y Ramirez. Criswell did better than expected.

They usually go conservative, esp on IP. What was Gio's projection, or was he already hurt when they made them?

Soxprospects.com did their Sept update on the rankings: 1. Anthony 2. Mayer 3. Campbell (up) I might have put him 2nd. 4. Teel (Jumped by K. C.) 5. Montgomery 6. Perales (Went up while on IL) 7. Arias (up and up) 8. Bleis (down) 9. Meidroth (up) 10. Cespedes (down) 11. Sandlin 12. Fitts 13. Tolle 14. Romero (up) 15. Jh Garcia (up) 16. Castro 17. Jo Garcia 18. Dobbins (up) 19 Penrod (up- not sure why) 20. Wikelman (why are they sticking with him? 21-25: ERC, Monegro, Cason, Valera, Early 26-30: Mullins, Guerrero, Jordan, Paez, Zanetello (down, bigly) 30-40: D Refeys, Ju Gonzalez, Neely, Wehunt, Sogard, Bastardo, Reimer, Taylor, Ehhard, Clarke 41-50: Tygart, Dean, Carlson, Ingrassia, Anderson, Gasper, Gambrell, Hickey (down), Bonnin, Jackson 51-60: Brannon, Mata, Fermin, Pinto, Brito, Nunez, Hoppe, I Coffey, Turner, Rogers

Hell, when we extended him, many said he was "an injury waiting to happen," or "already damaged goods." We heard that repeated every year afterwards, until the last few months. He did not let down that crowd, every year.

I do think Sale had a better chance of pitching well (2.50 to 3.75) than Gio (3.25 to 4.25,) but on estimated IP, I'd have gone Gio (140-180) to Sale (30-120.) I'd have predicted a higher WAR for Gio based on his IP projection, and I was never high on Gio.

Will Duran (.877) pass Devers (.898) in OPS, this year? Rankings among batters with 375+ PAs: 12. Devers .898 16. Duran .877 18. O'Neill .862 26. Abreu .824

There is still a chance Grissom turns out oaky or better. (I'm not counting on it, nor should they plan on his comeback.)

I agree with you and Bell over 90% of the time, but it's weird how you two disagree on almost everything. What's up with that?

I don't disagree, and trading DHam depends on how confident they feel in Mayer and or Campbell. Campbell is a coveted RHB, while DHam bats lefty. I'm just thinking of guys we might trade, instead of prospects. I'm not for trading him just for the sake of a trade. I like DHam and really like Abreu.

He's done okay in 15 IP, but 3.70 and a 1.250 WHIP since 2019 is nothing special. The 3.6 BB/9 is a worry, too.