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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    This really should not be too much to ask, but I feel in my bones, it is or will be. Not long ago, we'd be talking Burnes, Tanner Scott and Estevez, plus maybe O'Neill.
  2. moonslav59
    I'm 90% positive they think they have their closer (Hendriks) and back-up closers (Whitlock & Slaten.) I'm not sure how much they are counting on Fulmer, but I think they count him in the 8 man pen, if healthy. They might think we need one other good set-up man and a LH'd RP- tops. We do have a good mix of promising pen arms to fill the 5-8 slots and still have AAA depth. The problem with that, IMO, is that all 6 of those in the mix are question marks, and what often happens is, you end up cycling through 6 or 8 guys, while many fail, until you find 4-5 that might do what is needed..."MIGHT." Then, at any moment, they can get hurt of implode like Bernardino did, this year, Brasier last year and the year before, and Barnes back in '21. I'd feel a lot better with Hendriks as our closer, if we also added a top set-up man that could maybe be tried at closer, if Hendriks gets hurt or struggles. (Remember, Uehara was like our 3rd string closer over a decade ago.) That might be the best we can hope for, but I'd add a solid LH'd RP'er, too. We need two really good RP'ers- minimum. I'd like 3 but know that is a pipedream. They think they already added 2 with Hendriks and Fulmer, but they come a far distance from replacing Jansen and Martin. Anybody that thinks this is a capable pen is kidding themselves, and that is putting it mildly and politely: Closer: Hendriks Set-up: Whitlock Set-up: Slaten RP4: __ add__ (LHP) RP5: Criswell RP6: Fulmer RP7: Guerrero RP8: Winckowski/Weissert/Bernardino/I Campbell Penrod/Kelly/Booser/Shugart I'd love to see our Woo pen be those listed at #7 and lower, at worst. Something like this: Closer: Tanner Scott Set-up: Hendriks Set-up: __LHP__ Set-up: Whitlock Set-up: Slaten RP6: Criswell RP7: Winckowski RP8: Fulmer Even this pen might not be enough, but the #9-15 depth looks like it should be able to fill 2-3 key slots over the season, but not be slotted as opening day pen arms.
  3. moonslav59
    I totally understand, and I greatly appreciate your efforts on improving this site. Keep up the good work.
  4. moonslav59
    While minor league splits don't always translate to the bigs, I think it is safe to think Anthony will do okay vs LHPs. I'm not so sure about Mayer. Campbell is a RHB who could be a big plus in that area. The return of Story may help. Replacing O'Neill will not be easy, but I doubt we spend big on getting a top RHB. We have too many greater needs. We may try to add a RHB at catcher. On the pitching side, I do think we need a solid LH's RP'er, but our biggest need is a closer and set-up man, regardless of which arm they throw with. Sure, making one a lefty makes sense, but getting 2 solid RH'd RP'ers and a decent LH RP'er would be fine with me. Bernardino looked like he might be the guy. .708 OPS Against in 2023 (.459 v LHB) .588 OPS Against 1st half '24, but then .980 over the second half. Maybe he can regain his form, but one could argue he was just a fluke for about 1.5 seasons. Some numbers that might calm the fears about not having LH'd RP'ers: OPSA vs LHBs .549 Slaten .513 Whitlock (career: .689 v LHB/.695 v RHB) .444 Guerrero (just 18 PAs) Maybe Whitlock is the pen solution v LHBs.
  5. moonslav59
    If we make no major trades, what would it cost to get the minimum quality players we need. There is some disagreement over what our top needs are and how much should be allocated for particular need area. Most think we need ... 2-3 RP'ers (from a closer to a couple set up men to maybe just 3 good RP'er) 1-2 SP'er (from an ace to an innings eater 4/5 slot guy) A RHB (with some power- maybe at Catcher of OF, if we trade Abreu.) I'm going to assume we go for 4 significant players and their price ranges: AAV SP: $15-30M (I'll say $24M) RP1: $8-18M (Maybe $16M) RP2: $6-12M (Maybe $8M) RP3 or RHB: $6-12M (Maybe $7M) That's $55M total. I think we'd be under the tax line paying that out, but will we? We could also make a big trade or a couple medium ones and either spend more on less players, of fatten JH's wallet by just spendingless.
  6. moonslav59
    I'm hoping you are joking.
  7. moonslav59
    Will Brez get the financial support DD was given? Does he have the freedom to trade several top prospects? Yes, the situation is much different than today, but how different is knd of unknown, right now.
  8. moonslav59
    I agree. DD was taking control from him. Nobody in charge likes that. This does not mean JH and others wanted Ben to quit, so I don't see it as being the same as firing somebody, but if they were pretty certain he'd quit, I can see thinking there is little difference.
  9. moonslav59
    The 2019 team did not do well, and yes, we can blame some of how bad 2020 was on the missing Sale and ERod, plus JD's .680 season, but these guys were FAs after 2019: Porcello, Moreland, Pearce, Nunez, Holt, Thornburg These guys might not be great, but with $11M to spend and you had to trade Betts and Price, all you can do is build up the lower part of the 40. This was the season end roster to 2019: https://www.soxprospects.com/2019SE.htm
  10. moonslav59
    Don't you think a mandate to cut tens of millions from the budget kinda forced his hand on that? I doubt he thought he'd be viewed as "smart" by replacing Porcello, Betts & Price with Dugo, Martin Perez, Jose Peraza and Jonathan Lucroy. (I think those last 3 guys cost like $11M.) No way did he think he was building a 2020 winner and would be called "the smart one." Even with the $11M winter spending by Bloom, the budget was still reduced by about $60M, according to cots adjusted CB Tax numbers.
  11. moonslav59
    There is an in between possibility: they knew he might quit, but hoped he'd stay and work under DD.
  12. moonslav59
    The thing is, there was a report that DD was all set to trade Betts, midseason 2019, but the Sox started winning, and they decided to give 2019 a shot. I'm certain no GM would want to trade Betts, so I'm assuming Bloom was forced to do it, or told He'd have to cut $45-50M from the budget, elsewhere. I think not being able to bring Kimbrel & Kelly back in 2019, and not given a penny to even try to replace them, might have been the beginning of the friction. I do think DD knew the Betts trade was on the winter horizon, and could likely have been the final straw in the relationship between JH and DD. I honestly cannot imagine DD running the Sox under the 2020 and 2021 budgets handed to Bloom. I'm not saying he'd have quit, but there would have been some major acrimony that would likely have led to a (not much) later firing or retirement.
  13. moonslav59
    Yoshida underwent labral repair surgery on his right shoulder. Duran (CF) and Abreu (RF) are Gold Glove finalists.
  14. moonslav59
    What? By intentionally spending less than he could have, to look smart?
  15. moonslav59
    You make some good points, and you do no longer say he "decimated the farm." That is a good direction you took. No doubt, all GMs make mistakes. Getting the team to where DD got it in 2018 took a lot of skill and investment. It also took sacrifice, which I was fine with. Others were not. Nobody is right or wrong, because the whole ball of wax is gray in color, anyway.
  16. moonslav59
    Yes, and that was quicker than I ever imagined we could get back to the playoffs, but I think it proved to be a blip on the radar screen of a longer down time. Although we started spending more, for a brief time, we lost so many players, even after Kimbrel & Kelly, then Betts, Price & Porcello. I think we could have ended the "cliff" after 1-2 years, had JH returned to the "cycle" or spending. It seems like 2022 (the over the limit year) was a mirage, and just about everything went wrong. I do think the cliff was worse than I expected in 2020, but not having Sale and ERod hurt, badly. I think the 2021 season made JH feel like he did not have to spend a ton to win, so we missed a chance to pull out of it quickly. JH and of course, Bloom's poor choices extended the bad times.
  17. moonslav59
    It would have taken masterful moves to keep the team competitive with the slashes imposed on the GM. I never expected a 6 year cliff. I think I even suggested it could/should be 2-3 years, which makes 2021 just about on track. I also never expected the cuts and tight budgets by JH to last about 6 years. I expected him to "cycle" back to spending to or just over the tax line every 2-4 years. We did spend (poorly) and did go over one year- the one we should not have. Bloom was hired to find cheap players that overperformed: he didn't find enough, and he was nearly Oh-For on his biggest contracts handed out. (Jansen and Martin did fine, but he only had them in his era for 1 year.) Story, Yoshida, Barnes, Richards, Kluber and Kike II were his first $10M+ deals. If you count M Perez I + II as $10M+, that's oh for 7 until 2023. Maybe we could have made the playoffs had he just gobe 2 for 7 or 3-7- maybe not, but it was never going to be a glory team, once Betts was botted.
  18. moonslav59
    I spelled it out, and you know exactly what my position was and always has been. It was "inevitable," when you believe JH will not spend and spend year in and year out. He never did before, and I did not expect he'd start in 2019. We can cry all day long, "But JH CAN SPEND MORE!" That does not make it inevitable he will. JH has cut spending every 2-3 years, over his whole era. I felt it was inevitable, he would again, and that we'd pay the price. You and others claimed, among other ideas, that we could build the farm quickly, that JH would just keep raising the budget from an already 1 ranked budget, or that we still had a strong enough core to keep the window going for 3-4 more years. The farm had nothing from Devers to Houck. The rules were changed to make winning and spending teams have a harder time stocking the farm. Stiff penalties were added to big spenders, and thinking JH was going to pay those taxes was la-la land.
  19. moonslav59
    As much as I rant about adding a solid SP'er, I agree that Tanner Scott should be target #1.
  20. moonslav59
    Yes, he did, but over the 4 years, he did not spend what DD did. He spent less in 2013 than Theo did in 2010 to 2011. (That's not counting inflation.) Ben did increase spending after 2013, and quite significantly, so your point is solid. The team was at about $165M, the two years before Ben, and he dipped to $154M in '13 before ending at $184M. From start to finish, he went from $168M (Theo in 2011) to $184M- up $1`6M DD went to $197M yr 1 & 2, then 1, $234K in 2018 (1 rank) and $236M in '19. His total add was $$52M in 4 yrs. Bloom from $236M to $181M or -$55M. Brez down $10M in 1 year.
  21. moonslav59
    The sham, here, is you inventing we thought.
  22. moonslav59
    Of course JH could have become what the Dodgers and Mets are, today. Nobody ever said there HAD TO BE A CLIFF, or that it was inevitable. We knew JH was not going to go from the #1 spending team (2019) to much greater heights to keep all the stars or replace them in kind.
  23. moonslav59
    Ben, Bloom and Brez would have spent $50M more year, if JH allowed them to do it.
  24. moonslav59
    Good article. We certainly need a LH's RP'er, and I'll go farther and say the need for a RHB is overblown. I'd like one, yes, but it's not as high a priority as a LH's RP, a solid SP and another solid RP'er or three. Just get a serviceable RHB catcher, and count of Story, Campbell and Ref to do the rest. Also, Anthony is no platoon player. He hits lefties, very well.
  25. moonslav59
    If the pen is not significantly improved, the sham continues.
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