moonslav59

Well, they did go 17-11 from March 31st to May 1st and had the best ERA for a while. They had some bad and real bad stretches, too, so .500 took it all into account. We were 10 games over .500 after 96 games. I understand weighing the second half more highly, but I don't see it that way.

Our roster is loaded with pitchers. The 3 that will go to the 60 are not being counted on. We have 16 everyday players on the 40 with one being JH Garcia, who will not play MLB in 2025, and another being Sabol, who is there just for catcher depth. Essentially, we have 14 with 13 starting on the big club. Hell yes, I think we add 3 everyday players. The ones I chose seemed like the most ML ready and possibly healthy listed on the Woo roster. Campbell and Anthony should be two, but I think we hold back on Anthony to gain a year of service. Mayer could be added, if Story looks shaky or we have a MI injury. If you had to pick 3 everyday players, who are yours? Toro, Hickey and Binales?

I respect your opinion. I disagree. We were at or above .500, everyday, except one from opening day to June 3rd, when we were at 30-31. Then, the same from June 9th to Sept 17th. I'm not saying this is my metric, but the team felt like a winner, to me, for most of the year. I hate to blame injuries, and our staff stayed pretty healthy, after GIO and Whitlock went down, but the Devers injury really hurt us, badly. I realize those last 4 games, where we went 1-4 matter just as much as the others, but we were out of it. I'm fine with anyone thinking we were lucky to win 81` games, but I disagree. I'm not expecting 100% health in 2025, but I think it's safe to expect near the norm. We have a few layers with recent or pro-longed injury histories, so maybe our odds are higher than others, but none of these returning guys are looking to start the year on the IL. (Murphy and Perales don't count. Maybe Whitlock missed a week or two.) We have Gio and Hendriks about to play their first game in a Sox uniform. Whitlock started 4 games and had an ERA under 2, then missed the whole season. Story missed over 500 PAs, Casas over 350 and Yoshida and Ref enough to have an impact. (O'Nell is not coming back, so his missed games don't really factor into things, except we don't have 650 PAs to replace- just 473.) Devers played hurt and missed a couple weeks. I don't expect as many injuries, but who knows. If we have the same amount, I still think we finish ahead of TOR & TBR and win 85-90 games. (That's without Grichuk and or another RP'er added.)

I think we'll add Campbell, who will be our starting 2B on opening day, Nate Eaton (if not Anthony to the 26) and Sykes. I think we holf off adding any pitchers to the 40, until we've cycled through 15 or more.

I think STEAMERS tends to be conservative on projections, but we all expect they are consistently the same with every player and team. I don't disagree. They are not changing the formula when projecting Sox players, of example. There are other player projections, like Duran's, where other fans are scratching their heads. I get it. Certainly, TOR could finish above us, and we have sown a knack for finishing in last place, even when we were not projected to do so. I've always been big on pitching (especially SP'ers and the closer) and defense (especially up the middle and RF D.) Maybe, I'm overly biased, but I thought our rotation sucked, last winter, and did not give us much of a chance, because of that. I've always felt age matters. I'm not changing my goalposts. We have a young team, and our older players do not hold key positions, except our 9th inning pitchers. As the season went on, last year, I thought we were were better than expected, thanks in large part to our younger players doing well and Houck, Crawford, Bello and Slaten holding their own. I know we ended, poorly, and that matters a lot to some people more than to me. I felt like our team was better than a .500 team, but ended up at .500. Who knows? Maybe we have the same amount or more key injuries. Maybe some young players take a step back- more than one should expect. Maybe 2024 was Duran, Abreus, Rafaela, DHam. Wong, Houck, Crawford, Slaten and others' career years. I get that, but by and large, I expect pre-prime players to improve, overall. I expect prime players to have good years more than not. I don't think that's being a homer. I realize all of this is part of these site's projection models, but they are often wrong. Someone mentioned they have Duran going minus on D. To me, that is absurd and a clear mistake. I'm not projecting Story & Casas to play 145+ games, but if just one does, that should be a huge boost. I'm not thrilled with this team. I have said we are not a top contender. We could have and should have done more, but I also look around at what other teams have done in the AL, and nothing really jumps out as being way better than what we did, and I actually think we blew Houston's winter away. BAL has a lot of kids on the rise, but they lost some talent. The Yanks got some nice talent but lost Soto and others. SEA seems to be stagnant. KCR, CLE and DET? Ummm... I think we look to be a very slight favorite to squeak into the playoffs or just miss- maybe an 85-90 win team, as of now. I haven't looked real closely at what other teams have done, but I think we got significant; better than a team that should have won 82-85 games, last year. (IMO)

I said, I think they did. It's an opinion. We were over .500 for most of the season and got bitten by injuries. I think we were better.

"around the start of ST'ing" sounds vague. Clearly, they need to be on the 40 during Rule 5. It's good to know that we could sign Grichuk or Robertson/jansen during ST'ing and not have to DFA someone.

I fully agree, but I think he might end up being our best option to close, especially if Slaten regresses. There are some closers who go 2 IP, at times. I think Miller did, a few times. I'd like Whitlock to pitch the 7th and 8th or 8th and 9th in some games- maybe every 3 days.

I googled it, and it say a player can be added, at any time.

I'm not happy with the amount of improvement we made, this winter, but I've always been much higher on pitching than most, and I'm stoked about our rotation and starter depth. I wish we had gotten a lockdown closer and big RHB, but I think we are better. I'm not hung up on how we ended the season playing poorly. I think our team played better than a .500 team, but the P number say we deserved 81-81.

I'm not "trying to find away around" data. Steamers has us below TOR. I've never valued them much at all, even when they had us doing better. I think our batters will improve more than regress in 2025. We have to make up for the loss of O'neill, but also EVladez, McGuire, Jansen, Reyes, DSmith, Cooper & Dalbec, who total more PAs than O'Neill. I look at who TOR added and their ages of key players, like Springer 35, Gausman & Bassitt 34. Why should we expect they improve? TOR did get better, and I admit I am no expert on players from other teams, so maybe I am undervaluing their improvement, but they finished in last place in 2024, and I think we got a lot better, despite losing our best batter vs LHPs.

Baseball Prospectus and Daveport have us ahead of TOR and TBR. Fangraphs has us 0.1 behind TBR in team WAR. Not all data has TOR better.

Really? I could have sworn teams could not do this. Why don't we do it, now, instead of trading guys like Shugart and Booser to make room for new players? I think Sandoval is a lock for the 60 day. Maybe Murphy could be added.

Of course, but as a group, I think it fair to expect a team with 12 out of 13 batters in pre-prime, peak prime or the end of prime, and the one guy outside of prime as a short-sided platoon guy, to do better than when they were younger. Only Duran had a career year. I don't count Abreu, because it was his first full year. Some may regress, but more should progress. Can you agree with that principle?

I look at where we finished in 2024, who TOR and BOS lost from 2024 and who we added, including returning healthy players that missed a lot of time in '24. TOR had a nice winter, but I think ours is better. Look at Crochet's data. Buehler's. Gio, Hendriks, Chapman and returning guys like Whitlock, Casas, Devers and even Story. There are a lot of services that make projections based on data. I have only seen one come up with team totals, so far. Are there others that show TOR better than us?

I don't disagree, but I also do not have high hopes for a guy (Hendriks) who has not pitched since 2022 and turns 36 in a couple weeks. I like Slaten, too, and I think Whitlock might end up being the best of the 4.

You can't place a player on the 60 Day IL, until opening day.

Maybe Sam think he is just a Grichuk, Campbell and Anthony away from fixing that "balance."

That has to be the plan, and honestly, I don't think it's a bad one. We have 3 top prospects- all ML ready or very close to it. I know prospects are no sure bet, but with 3, there is a very good chance 1-2 do well. There is always a chance, even a steady vet has an off year or gets hurt. Nothing is a guarantee in MLB. You try to put together the best team you can, on paper, and then see how they do. The good thing is, our weakest areas for hitting are middle IF and OF vs LHPs, only, and our top prospects play MI (Campbell 2B and Mayer SS) and OF (Anthony has good splits and Campbell bats RH'd.). Okay, Catcher is an issue, too, but not really at hitting.

The law of averages says player approaching prime, usually improve.

Maybe he feels like having 3 of the best ML ready prospects in America and the return of Casas is all the focus he needs on O. Maybe he feels like the return of Story to SS will leap us from bottom 5 to middle 10 on D. It's not like there is nothing to base improvement on. Almost every batter and defender we have on the 26 is moving towards prime, and going by age curve history, should get better. The ones that are not approaching peak prime are either in peak prime (Devers, Duran, Romy and Wong,) near the end of prime (Story & Yoshida) or showing no signs of letting up in their post prime (Refsnyder, who is a short-side platoon DH/LF'er.) It should be expected that our returning players, as a whole, do better in 2025 than 2024, and that is not even looking at returning players from injury, like Casas, Devers, Story, Yoshida and others with lesser injuries. (Yes, some will get hurt in 2025, but we lost a lot of our best batters in 2024, and some played hurt in many games.)

One set of data, yes.

He won't be signing a minor league deal, either.

Agreed, and if we had both, I'd start the year with Jansen as the closer. To me, it's a close call between Hendriks and Chapman. I even think Slaten or Whitlock could muscle their way into the closer role.

Last year, Abreu started 104 of 119 games when a RHP started (87%.) He started 6 out of 43 games when a lefty started (14%.) I expect about the same in 2025. I think Ref missed some time, and O'Nell did miss a lot of time, so maybe he would not have started that many (6) vs LHPs, had they been healthy. We'll see.