moonslav59

Exactly, and bad splits by Sox players in 2025 is not a sure thing, either. Casas is pretty good vs lefties, and Devers has had some very nice seasons vs lefties. Ref and Romy may not repeat their success, but I have more faith if Ref vs LHPs in '25 than O'Neill. Story is the wild card, along with Campbell & Anthony.

Being optimistic does not mean the team does well. I was very optimistic going into 2019. I was more optimistic in the winter before 2022 than I was before 2021's.

I guess my main issue with this is about relying exclusively on 2024 data, like that is the one driver in projecting future production. We have several players who have had great or decent success vs LHPs in very recent seasons- just not 2024. There is no reason to think some of them will have better 2025 seasons than 2024, especially Devers, Casas, Story & maybe Wong and Duran. As great as Duran looked in '24, his LH'er splits were better in '23- same with Wong. It is an issue and concerns me, a lot. I am pushing for a Grichuk signing to help ease the loss of O'Neill, but I also see that just about everyone did worse vs LHPs in '24 than previous seasons. Even ref had better recent seasons and w more PAs. Romy looks like the only guy with a career best season v lefties, and he did not play all that much. It's a worry, but we did get better in other areas- even way better with the rotation, that was not all that bad, to begin with.

Nope to both. (My opinion and my expectation)

Maybe more like a $4-4.5M/1 deal w bonuses.

I would not start him vs LHPs to begin the season. I'd use Refsnyder at corner OF as the starter v lefties. (Yoshida would be the FT DH.) Once we see how Abreu does, when he faces LH'd RP'ers, that might change, some. The arrival of Anthony or even playing Campbell in the OF might force the choice for us. I'd go: v RHPs: Duran LF, Rafaela CF, Abreu RF v LHPs: Ref LF, Duran CF, Rafaela RF (in away games w shorter RF's, I'd flip Ref to RF, Duran to LF and Rafaela in CF.) Anthony has had decent splits in the minors, but rookies often struggle vs off-handed pitchers, out of the gate. He will not be added to the 40, until he's added to the 26 as a FT player or very near FT player. To me, he'd force an Abreu-Rafaela platoon. If Campbell is added as an OF'er, Rafaela would become the super utility guy or FT SS, if Story is out. (He could play some 2B, if Anthony is in the OF and Campbell not on the 26.)

While I think losing Pivetta may be more significant than some think, I can't help but get excited about the rotation and rotation depth this team has. Many have lingering questions that may seem larger or more profound than pitchers like Burnes and Fried, but many of the guys we have can throw some nasty stuff and have proven they can dominate in their roles. Crochet is looking to step up his IP, much like Houck and Crawford did in 2024, but there is no doubt, the guy can dominate. Buehler reminds me of Sale, missing so much time and not being fully dominant when pitching in between injuries, but again, this guy can dominate and showed he can, last October. The 2024 addition of Giolito might as well be considered a 2025 addition, and while he has not shown the dominance he once had a few years back, over a full season, he is not old, and he has had some pretty long stretches of looking really good, not too long ago. Houck's 2024 success is fresh on our minds. There is a worry he cannot do it again, but the guy can pitch- and pitch very well. Bello and Crawford seemed to look better in 2023 than 2024, but both showed they can take the ball every 5 days and are at an age where a break out or "career" season often occurs. We are one of just 3 teams, the Reds and Rays are the others, who have 6 SP'ers with projected fWARs of over 1.1. On top of these 6, we probably have top 5 or 10 AAA SP'er depth in Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins and no 40 man guys Fulmer, Gambrell and Drohan. The pen lost Jansen and Martin, along with as many innings of easily replaceable scrubs, but we added Chapman, Hendriks and Wilson. Once could count Whitlock as a "new pitcher," since his role has changed back to where he had some great success. His past success was no fluke. The guy can pitch. He even had a 1.96 ERA, last year, before going on the IL. Hendriks and Chapman have had some great success, even recently. Slaten had one of the Sox best fWAR years as a RP'er in a long time. BEST RP'er fWAR in the last 10 years: 3.2 Kimbrel '17 2.1 Workman '19 1.8 Schreiber '22 1.6 Whitlock '21 1.5 Martin '23 1.4 Slaten '24 & Jansen '24 1.3 Uehara '15, Kimbrel '18 & Barnes '21 1.2 Barnes '19 & '18 Newbies: since 2019 (last 5 full seasons) 3.9 Hendriks '20 2.7 Hendriks '21 2.1 Chapman '20 1.8 Chapman '23 1.6 Hendriks '22 There are some good reasons to be optimistic about our pitching staff: 6 good starters and 4 RP'ers with some very nice success, over the past 5 seasons. We have a lot of decent pitching depth in AAA, as well. Maybe, this will not be enough to compensate for doing little to improve the offense and defense, over the winter, but we do have 3 of America's top 25 prospects, who are all ML ready or very close to it. (Mayer would likely have made it 3 top 10 prospects, had he stayed healthy. At what point is it okay to be optimistic?

Yes, I get that, but I'd consider posting my first bet in over 40 years on the Sox finishing ahead of the Jays in '25. The Jays have been active- no doubt. They lost Dillon Tate, Ryan Yarbrough, Jordan Romano and Spencer Horwitz and gained: Santander Hoffman Scherzer Yimi Garcia, Andres Gimenez, Nick Sandlin, Josh Walker & Miles Straw. The Sox lost Jansen, Pivetta, O'Neill, Martin & quite a few additions by subtractions. We added: Crochet Buehler Sandoval Chapman Wilson, Narvaez, Moran and have a bunch of players returning from injury, including Giolito & Hendriks (0IP in '24) and Whitlock, Story, Casas and others. We lost more than they did, but our gains look way better, to me. (I'm sure they have returning injured players, too, but ours seem more promising and significant. (Maybe I'm wrong.)

Actually, not everything. Maybe not even 5 of the 8 players I listed. 4 out of 8 might be enough. The thing is, it might be just as likely enough of the guys on this list do well vs LHPs in 2025 as it is for O'Neill to stay healthy and rake, again. O'Neill is such a wild card. We may have just been lucky to draw that card in 2025. If we brought him back, it would be Pollyannic to expect 450+ PAS and an OPS vs LHPs over .900, too. Forget about 1.180.

I feel like we have one more move to do- maybe two. Not major, but something. I think we sign Grichuk or Laureano. Maybe we sign a RP'er, but I doubt it is Robertson or Jansen. Maybe Finnegan, Sims or Beeks.

Is he any worse than Penrod, Weissert, I Campbell, Wilson and a few other guys that might get 30+ IP in 2025? (I don't want him.)

Here's our chance to boost the pen!

Polanco signs with SEA for $7.5M. Astros were interested. Is Bregman going to HOU?

I can't see thinking TOR is better.

So, we haven't hired replacement scouts, I gather. Seems like using data and scouting would be a way to improve without spending much.

Scherzer to TOR for $15.5M. Catcher Elias Diaz signs w SDP for $3.5M/1. Not much to talk about, except maybe TOR's budget to sign or not sign Bregman.

How's this? vs LHPs w BOS (unless noted) ... 1.005 Refsnyder '22 .941 Refsnyder '24 .941 Grissom '22 (w ATL) .879 Romy '24 .877 Wong '23 .847 Story '22 .828 Refsnyder '23 .824 Devers '23 .817 Casas '23 .749 Duran '23 All we need is repeats of specific seasons from the past 3 years, all at once. Note: Grichuk vs LHPs: .914 '24. .995 '23, .926 '22 Laureano: .869 '24, .794 '23, .691 '22, .858 '21 O'Neill: 1.180 '24, .794 '23 (79 PAs) .788 '22 (91 PAs)

This is reminding me of the "Who will replace Renfroe's 98 RBIs" period. Maybe we sign Grichuk and Robertson and that pushes us over the line by a thread.

Agreed. I saw Robertson as okay in '22 and '23, maybe a little better than okay, and he was really good in '24. My issue is not knowing if he will be "good" or not in '25. We have 15-20 RP'ers with various levels of promise. Sure, most do not have as much as Robertson or Jansen, but I wanted a lock down closer. Again, I'd settle on either or both, and maybe they cna move the needle more than I expect they will. Some notable fWAR seasons from the pen since 2021; 1.9 Robertson '24 (1.2 in '23) 1.8 Jansen '21 (1.4 in '24) 1.8 Schreiber '22 1.7 Chapman '23 1.6 Whitlock '21 1.5 Slaten '24, Martin '23 1.4 Crochet '21 & Fulmer '21 1.3 Barnes '21 Trades? 2.3 M Miller '24 2.3 Bednard '23 (1.4 '22) 2.2 & 2.0 Helsley '24 & '22 (1.5 in '23)

I changed Robertson to 2nd to 4th. I also said, I'd "take them both." I just don't see either making a BIG difference. They might, so why not? I wanted better, but would settle on either or both.

Casas hits lefties, okay, so 350-400 more PAs from him could help. Devers has had some seasons with good lefty splits. 500 more from Story is an unknown, but has promise. Romy and Ref are our two lefty killers. Grissom and Rafaela are dice rolls.

1.181 is what we need!

I see both declining but with hopes for one more good year. Robertson had a very nice 2024, but he dropped about 90 points off his FIP from '22 and '23. His K/BB ratio went up like a 26 year old. I just have serious doubts about a repeat. I'd rather have him than Wilson and maybe 2-3 other in the pen, but I'd have him as our 2nd to 4th pen arm, but could end up our #2 or #8. I'd make Jansen the closer, knowing he could easily lose the job by May. I'd take em both, but I doubt they'd make a big difference.

He might make a good closer. I can't really blame the agent, although I did not think he deserved a QO. I thought he could get $60M/4 or $50M/3. Has there been any reported offer or serious discussions? I know I'm a homer, but I thought he was pretty good, and he took the ball every 5 days, unless demoted. Since 2021: 23rd in IP 47th in SIERA at 3.78 (tied or close to Nate, Ober, Castillo, Steele, Ragans, Lugo, Kikuchi & Houck) Since 2023 (79 pitchers w 250+ PAs) 4th in SIERA 3.32 38th ERA- at 93 50th in fWAR at 3.9

MLBTR's top FAs still not signed: 3. Bregman- looks like TOR or DET (outside chance HOU or BOS) 7. Alonso (1Bmen have seen their stock tumble) 8. Flaherty (Injury concerns) 25. Heaney (not sure why he was ranked 25th.) 28. Pivetta (no rumors that I know of.) 33. Scherzer (not sure he's still got enough in the tank) 41. Kyle Gibson (nope) 47. David Robertson (turns 40 in April) 49. H Bader and 50. Turnbull Others" Jansen, Grichuk, Lance Lynn, J Junis, JD and Turner