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Everything posted by moonslav59
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I'm assuming the worst for him. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I think you have to opt into those notifications. I don't get them, but my wife opted in and gets them. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Also, banks notify the IRS on large transactions, not the customer or MLB. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I have no issues with you or your interactions with me. You are one of my favorite posters. I hate the idea of thinking back to 4 rings to help ease my pain from recent season results, but I do remember a time, when I did not have that little piece of comfort. That time was over 3 decades, for me, and more for other Sox fans. More than this, though, is my belief that we have finally righted the farm, despite some lingering worries about finding and developing fine young pitchers. To me, this is the strongest farm we have had since the mid Theo era. Couple that with my belief that we currently have the best set of pre-prime to prime, core players than we've had since Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Beni and ERod. That was 5 years ago, plus. Much has been said about the farm's failure to produce good pitchers, but when you look at past winning Sox teams, they were mostly dominated by acquired pitchers. We had one peak time with Lester, Buch and Masterson, but since then, we've been pretty awful. Once can argue, many of our current homegrown pitchers are barely better than mediocre, are inconsistent or have some major flaws, like a high BB or HR rate, but I see a significant improvement over years past. Don't get me wrong, we still need major additions, and I am nowhere near confident that JH will allow Brez to fill the 3-5 gaps we have with quality and high quality players, but I'm also not sure he is done spending, like a few posters seem to think. The fact is, we don't know what he will do, or if e will ever spend like he did with DD. (He may not ever have to, if this farm comes through.) I have given the pessimistic view, several times, already, and I seem to give the optimistic view more often, and certainly more than some, but I like our core of pre-prime and prime players. Pitching needs help, but this is a pretty decent, and mostly low cost foundation: Gio is 30. Weissert & Kelly are 29. Houck, Crawford & Whitlock are 28, Criswell & Penrod 27 and Slaten, Wink and Campbell 26. Bello is just 25, and Fitts, Priester & Guerrero are 24 or younger. Only Hendriks (35>36) and Fulmer (31>32) are post prime. Although Whitlock spent no time on our farm, he and almost all the other under 31 pitchers listed here, did. The age of our key everyday players and the ML ready or near ML ready prospects is something I find very hard to not be optimistic about. Sure, there are questions, and health concerns with some of our key players, but it seems like we now have the depth covered, and some of the depth has more upside than the starters. Only Ref is over 32, and he will most likely only be a short-side, platoon DH and 5th or 6th OF'er. IMO, that is rather stunning and grounds for optimism, all by itself. Story is 31, and has health issues, but we now have Mayer. Rafaela & Grissom are 23, while Casas is just 24. DHam, Abreu & Valdez are 25 or 26, while Devers and Duran are 27 and just entering peak prime. Wong is 28. This is 7 or 8 key players (9 if you count Ref), and then we have quite a list of very promising depth to fill the other slots or provide injury insurance for 2025. This is an awesome looking list of ML ready or near ML ready prospects, of which we may only need 1-2 do do very well: Anthony, Campbell, Mayer, Meidroth, Fitts, Priester, Guerrero, Penrod, Shugart & Dobbins Teel, Sandlin, Romero, Jh Garcia, Castro, Early among others I'm pretty sure Brez will add 3-5 players to the 26 or 40, but a lot depends on how high quality they are, and if they can stay healthy and not disappoint, like so many of our most recent pick-ups have done. I'm cautiously optimistic- not about JH deciding to spend "what it takes," but because we have such a large group of pre prime and prime players to choose the best 26. If the 3-5 additions come through, the group I just highlighted only needs to fill 21-23 slots, plus any injury slots that open up. I don't think that should be an issue. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
They did cut 20% of their budget from 2013 to 2018, but unlike the Sox, they kept winning regular seasons. I think Sox fans would love to see JH go nutty on spending. -
I've always appreciated your posts. It's nice to see someone own what they do.
- 193 replies
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- masataka yoshida
- rafael devers
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I do think SEA and all but one fan would love to have Casas on their roster. It's funny, how that fan uses BTV, but when we talk of trading for Castillo, all of a sudden the -$30 value Castillo is worth more than Mayer. BTV would accept Yoshida for Castillo +$7M cash. That same fan keeps saying, but we don't need Mayer, because we have a SS, then suggested we add our 8th OF'er.
- 193 replies
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- masataka yoshida
- rafael devers
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I think you solved your own puzzle. That whole situation was downright nutty. -
Yes, all Mariner players are undervalued. Sox players are overvalued or correctly valued by BTV.
- 193 replies
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- masataka yoshida
- rafael devers
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I could have said that word. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
No, but I'm fine with others saying it was a nutty overpay for a DH. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
We all said, "No way would we have paid Bogey what the padres gave him." I call that nutty spending. I don't want JH spending like that. I would not criticize him for refusing to do something like that. I find plenty of other examples to criticize him on, but not for things like refusing to offer Ohtani $710M or Yamo $320M. The Sox have been the highest spending team, at times, and maybe other fans called JH nutty for spending so much on Price, and then adding JD and paying Porcello $22M x 4. I'm not getting into semantics. I think nutty has many different meanings and connotations. A few teams made some massive jumps in spending within a 2-3 year period. It was not something you see happen. I have repeatedly said that is not the only or even the main reason for our spending ranking drop, as the topic moved from just spending to "ranking," after it was pointed out we raised our spending by over 25% in a 2 year period, while many posters were screaming that JH was "being cheap" of "cutting spending." Those Statements were just not true, and pointing that out is not being a JH apologist or defender. I do defend him on other things, like 4 rings, but not letting Betts walk. Not letting countless stars walk without replacing them with anything near similar resemblances. Porcello might have been mediocre, but Martin Perez, Richards and Kluber couldn't carry big Dick's jock. That's on JH. Again, I'm not changing my term "nutty," because you don't think it fits. It has been extreme spending by 2-3, maybe 4 teams, of late: LAD, NYM, and SDP/TEX for briefer moments. (Maybe PHI, a little bit.) I would not be pissed at JH for not keeping pace with those 4-5 teams + the NYY, but I would for the other 4-6 teams ahead of us. Thanks for explaining why you disagree. Nutty, to you, means irrational, and those signings made sense to you, because they are a team like LAD who has oodles of cash and revenue streams. I still call it "nutty." Yes, I do think Ohtani at $700M is extreme and nutty. I think Yamo's deal was, too. Glasnow's was, as well. The Mets deals were a joke, and they later dumped some. The Bogey deal was absurd. Is that a better word than "nutty?" -
I'd say Nate's contract was okay, and about on the same level as Porcello's. Wacha's was good. Hill ws okay, for the cost. Even Paxton's 21 GS for $10M was okay. The last big contract for a pitcher, that we gave out? Hmmmm. (The Beckett extension was not great.) Pedro's extension, over 2 decades ago?
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The last thing we need is an OF'er. Now, Casas, Yoshida and Fitts for Bryce Miller, and maybe... (Maybe Castillo with no Fitts, instead of Miller)
- 193 replies
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- masataka yoshida
- rafael devers
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I don't see a Garver-Yoshida swap as something SEA would want. They are done paying Garver, after this year. Now, add a guy like Casas or a lesser one, and they'd perk right up. We'd need more than Garver, if we added Casas.
- 193 replies
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- masataka yoshida
- rafael devers
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Thanks. I know soxprospects does not always jive with MLB's criteria for graduation.
- 9 replies
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- matt duffy
- jojo ingrassia
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Even those who live in that world think $700M is nutty. I'm not sure why you think I need to explain why it is. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I just explained it. Maybe not enough for you, but I think a 31% increase in a budget that was already one of the highest in MLB is extreme. I used "nutty" to denote "extreme." It was extreme. Just because they can afford it, does not change the fact that they blew history away with last winter's 4 signings. I call it "nutty." I explained why. Agree to disagree, but why can't you you answer why you disagree? -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I'd be fine with this. I value catcher defense almost as much as SS defense. I do think we could try and fix catcher D, while also adding to our RHB power, but that is secondary to the D. -
Huh? I'm all for adding Campbell and Anthony to the 40 and 26 on day 1 or 2 of the season. (Day 2, if we need to wait to place someone on the 60 IL to make room for them.) The day Story gets hurt, I add Mayer to the 40 and 26, unless he's hurt, too. I'm NOT for adding Garver. We have too many players that are better hitters than he is vs RHPs. We have ref vs LHPs. We can put DHam, Romy, Grissom and even Rafaela in AAA, if we need room on the 26 for a big 3. I think adding the big 2 or 3, plus 3 key additions would get us to favorites to make the playoffs.
- 193 replies
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- masataka yoshida
- rafael devers
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If Garver is the only way we can dump most of Yoshi's contract and maybe get some kind of production out of the return, I'm okay with it, but getting back a DH, is not what I'd like. I'd rather get a pitcher who has a 5% chance of doing just okay in 2025. I also think we have an overload of batters, and I have more faith in the 3 prospects than some. I know none fit the DH profile, but I'd be fine with using the DH to rotate players for "rest" instead of giving them 5-10 days off. Play Ref at DH vs every LHP, and then "rest" guys at DH vs RHPs: Devers 10 games, instead of 5 days off, Abreu, Duran, Casas, DHam, Wong and maybe even DHam or Story, here and there. I do think E Valdez has a close to equal shot at doing well vs RHPs as Garver.
- 193 replies
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- masataka yoshida
- rafael devers
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Why does "nutty" have to mean causing financial trouble? They are spending way more than most teams and have even outdone themselves with the Ohtani and Yamo singings. It's nutty compared to other teams and even quite extreme for their own history. They used to spend a ton back in the mid 2010's, but they went under $190M in 2018. $187 to $267 is a massive increase. On CT Tax, they were at $205 in 2019 and are now at $352M. You seriously can't understand why anyone could see that as going nutty on spending in a short time? Just from 2023 to 2024 they went from $268>$352- a 31% increase. Who else does that besides the Mets and maybe TEX did that, ever? Let's not argue semantics. 3 teams vastly increased their spending, and that is just part of the reason we dropped in ranking. Of course, JH's recent cuts is also a major factor. Last winter Dodger spending: $700M/10 Ohtani $325M/12 Yamo $140M/10 Will Smith $136M/5 Galsnow (This one alone is more than most teams did w one guy.) I'd like you to explain why this is not nutty? This blows away any winter any team has ever had, except for maybe that year the Yanks signed something like 5 out of the 11 QO FAs. -
Even DH'ing GG candidate Abreu would seem like a waste. Ref vs LHPs, yes. Who vs RHPs is in doubt. I mentioned E Valdez as a longshot choice. Maybe DHam, if 2B is covered vs RHPs, but he's our best defensive 2Bman. Devers as a FT DH could work, but then we need 3B covered.
- 193 replies
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- masataka yoshida
- rafael devers
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