moonslav59

We lost a guy who only played 2/3 a season. It was a big loss, I agree, and it was a loss in an area where we sucked to begin with. but losing Soto, Torres, Dugo and Rizzo is massive vs LHPs and RHPs. Bellinger should do well, but he is a huge "what if?" and Goldy has been falling off a cliff by more than Arenado, on offense. Why are you giving them the benefit of the doubt, but not our 24-29 year old players?

Goldschmidt turns 101 in September (38 in Dog years.) His OPS dropped 171 points, 2 years ago and 94 points in 2024. He had a 98 OPS+. I'm not sure why you expect improvement from a 38 year ols, and suggest I am being overly optimistic by saying I project improvement by our whole group of pre-prime, peak prime and prime players, who are basically everybody but Ref. While the 1B position was a mess for NYY, last year and a .716 repeat OPS bt Goldschmidt would still be a nice gain from 2024, I'm not seeing Goldy making up for the loss of Soto, Torres and Dugo. Bellinger has a much better chance to make a dent in the losses, but no way he and Goldy come close to what they lost. Anytime a lefty joins NYY, you have to think they could have a big year, and Cody just might, but the guy has been all over the map. I'd say he has as many or more questions as our Sox players do. His OPS over the last 4 years: .542 in '21 (44 OPS+) .654 in '22 (81) .881 in '23 (139) .751 in '24 (111) Verdugo's last 4 OPS+ 107>102>100>81 Torres last 4: 93>113>118>101 Soto: 158>127>155>178 Rizzo: 110>130>94>81

We essentially added Giolito to the rotation, too. You failed to point out who was lost from the rotation. We lost Paxton: they lost Cortes, so I give us the edge on improving that area. We also added Hendriks to the pen. Yes, we lost Jansen and Martin, but also a lot of scrubs that look like addition by subtraction. The Yanks lost Holmes, Trivino and Kahlne. I still agree, though- advantage NYY by a hair. (You claimed "not even close?") On batting: The Yanks lost a ton of offense in Soto, some with Torres and a little with Verdugo & Rizzo. To me they lost a lot more than they gained with Bellinger and Goldschmidt, who might be slightly better than Rizzo. We lost O'Neall and McGuire/Jansen and gained nobody. I say we lost less than NYY did: edge BOS.

I can't find any recent reports on his shoulder(s.) Back in September, they said it was "nothing structural," and that off season workout is all that is needed. I, too, have my doubts. It's not like our medical team has a great record. Devers has said both shoulders bothered him, but the left one was the worst and "hurt" all season. It's pretty amazing that he was on his way to his best career OPS into mis August, despite the injury. It seems like just about every Sox player has some sort of lingering question(s.)

With no Anthony or an addition like Grichuk on the opening day line-up, I'd say Ref is the LF platoon. This assumes Yoshida is healthy. Even if we add Grichuk/Laureano or Anthony to the roster, Ref should start every game vs LHPs, even if it means platooning Yoshida at DH. I see our opening day OF configuration as such: LF: Duran v R/ Ref v L CF: Rafaela v R/ Duran v L RF: Abreu v R/ Rafaela v L (As you can see, Duran and RAF play FT, while Abreu and Ref platoon.) If Yoshida is hurt, we might see Romy platoon with Abreu in RF and Ref DH or platoon DH with ____?

If the MLB 13 man pitching staff begins with Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Bello, Giolito, Crawford, Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Wink, Wilson, Weissert and Guerrero, these would be the pitchers lined up to make the 14 man AAA staff. (Assuming Sandoval, Murphy & Perales begin the season on the 60 Day IL.) SP: Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Fulmer, Gambrell, Drohan RP: Bernardino, Penrod, Kelly, I Campbell, Mata, A Adams, J Moran Noah Davis, Wyatt Mills, Robert Stock, Brian Van Belle, Hobie Haris, S Newcomb, Wyatt Olds, Jose Adames That looks like pretty decent AAA pitching depth, for once.

Is this how we start the season? vs RHP 1. L Duran LF 2. L DHam 2B 3. L Casas 1B 4. L Devers 3B 5. R Story SS 6. L Abreu RF 7. L Yoshida DH 8. R Wong C 9. Rafaela CF vs LHPs 1. L Duran CF 2. R Refsnyder LF 3. R Story SS 4. L Devers 3B 5. L Casas 1B 6. R Romy 2B 7. L Yoshida DH 8. R Wong C 9. Rafaela RF SP: Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Bello, Giolito, Crawford RP: Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Wilson, Weissert, Guerrero If Campbell makes the 26, he coudl bat 2nd FT and play 2B. Ref could bat 3rd vs LHPs, and Story 5th...

Solid post, again. I don't think Yoshida is tradeable, and throwing in a good player to dump him is a hard thing to do. I don't think we'd call up Mayer or any of the big 3 to be a sub. We've all lost confidence in our FO. Their lack of actions, wrong actions are bad enough, but the lies and deceptions just drive it into our hearts.

Here is a look at the ALE and top AL contenders' winter pluses and minuses: BOS: Lost Pivetta, Jansen, Martin, O'Neill, D Jansen/McGuire, L Garcia/Sims Added: Crochet, Buehler, Chapman, Sandoval, Wilson, Narvaez, J Moran NYY: Lost Soto, Torres, Cortes, Holmes, Verdugo, Rizzo, Kahnle, Berti, Trevino, Poteet Added: Fried, D Willimas, Bellinger, Goldschmidt, Loaisiga, F Cruz BAL: Lost Burnes, Santander, Means, McCann, E Jimenez, A Slater, J Webb & Coulombe Added: O'Neill, Morton, G Sanchez, Kittredge, D Carlson & T Sugano TBR: Lost Springs, Carlson, Siri, Poche & T Alexander Added: H-S Kim, D Jansen & E Jimenez TOR: Lost Yarbrough, Tate, Horwitz & Romano Added: Santander, Scherzer, Hoffman, Y Garcia, Straw, A Gimenez, N Sandlin & J Walker HOU: Lost Tucker, Bregman (?) Kikuchi, Pressly, Verlander, Urguidy, Neris, Graveman, Gamel, C Ferguson, Heywood Added: Paredes, Walker, Wesneski CLE: Lost Boyd, Cobb, Naylor, Straw, Gimenez, Sandlin & Morgan Add: Santana, Sewald, Luis Ortiz, Cecconi DET: Lost nobody at all Added: G Torres, Cobb & Kahnle KCR: Lost Singer, Y Gurriel, Frazier, W Smith, Pham, DeJong & Grossman Add: India, Estevez, Lorenzen, Wiemer SEA: Lost Y Garcia, Josh Rojas, J Turner, Urias, Chargois, Voth & Haggerty Added: Polanco, Solano & Mastrobuoni MIN: Lost Margot, Santana, DeSclafani, Kepler, Farmer, Thielbar & Moran Added: nobody at all To me, only TOR, DET and BOS clearly got better. BAL, HOU and MIN got worse The others stayed about even or maybe got worse.

Ref should. They guy has been a lefty killer for 3 years in a row. Only 11 batters in all of MLB have a higher OPS vs LHPs and more PAs than Ref since 2022. He's at .910. Yoshida has an .810 OPS vs RHPs, career- not great but pretty good. If Ref hits .910 and Yoshida .810, our DH might hit .845-.850. That would have placed them 5th in 2024 DH OPS. We placed 13th, last year at .742.

I told myself to expect no more spending, but then that damn Soto thing got to me.

Yes, I have fond memories of signing that song in February.

Ohtani to pitch in May.

They did talk about Yoshida playing some OF, but that does not have to be opening day or even in April. I'm thinking he'll be the opening day DH, unless we face a lefty, and we decide to start Ref at DH, not the OF. The reports I see say Yoshi should be ready by the first day of ST'ing or by opening day.

When you try to take an optimistic view of our pitching staff, while remaining somewhat realistic and objective, we can think that health could be the number one issue with the idea that all of our pitchers under he age of 32 could maybe just repeat or come close to their best single season years since 2017 (last 7 full seasons.) In this light, here are the best fWAR seasons by our current pitchers. 5.6 Buehler '21 (5.1 in '19 & 3.1 in '18) 5.2 Giolito '19 (4.1 in '21, 2.0 in the short '20 season & 1.8 in '22) 4.7 Crochet '24 (1.4 in '21) 3.9 Houck '24 (2.3 in '21) 3.7 Sandoval '22 (2.3 in '23) 3.6 Fulmer '17 (1.5 in '18 & '21) 2.4 Crawford '23 (1.9 in '24) 1.6 Bello '23 (1.3 in '24) 1.1 Criswell '24 Pen: 3.9 Hendriks '19 (2.7 in '21 & 1.6 in '22) * turns 36 soon 2.1 Chapman '19 (1.8 in '18 & '23) * turns 37 soon 1.6 Whitlock '21 (1.4 '22) 1.5 Slaten '24 There is no way all of these guys approach their season highs in 2025, especially Hendriks, Chapman and maybe Giolito & Fulmer, but I do not think coming close is any wild expectation or wish. We could see.... Buehler & Crochet: 4-5.5 Houck & Giolito: 3-4.5 Crawford & Bello: 1.5-3 Criswell 0.8-1.3 & Sandoval for a half season of 0.8-1.3 Pen: Slaten & Whitlock: 1.5- 2.5 Hendriks & Chapman: 1.0-2.0 We won't see all these guys meet these lofty possibilities, but one or two could even exceed the range listed, here, and we might just need 3-4 of our starters to meet these ranges to have a nice season. The pen may need to go 3-4 or 4-4, unless some other pen arm steps up.

I seriously doubt we get to opening day with the unbalanced 40 man roster. When we add Murphy, Perales and Sandoval to the 60 day IL, I'm thinking we add at least 2 everyday players to the 40. One might be Campbell or Anthony- maybe both, but we will not allow it to get to a point where JH arcia gets the call before being ML ready. I think one will be Eaton, and if we end up having to DFA him, later, and lose him, it won't be a big deal. Once we add Campbell and Anthony, they are locked into a slot on the 40, and someone else will need to be DFA'd if we need to add someone else. This is the advantage of adding guys like Eaton, Toro or Sykes. It won't be Hickey or Binelas, so who else is on the AAA roster that could be #40?

Did we ever get a clear diagnosis? If it was structural, like a rotator cuff and needs surgery, at some point, but some issues do heal with just rest. I'm worried.

I'm not sure we need them to be that good, but we do need quite a few things to go right. Many are based almost totally on health, although someone like Story could play 150 games but hit just .650. IMO, that would still give us a boost, but not enough to make a big difference. (Our SS position hit a surprising .761 in 2024.) I think we may start Campbell at 2B, in part because the kid has been a monster, but also because our unbalanced line-up. We keep Anthony in AAA for just long enough to gain the extra year of control (mid May?) and Mayer stays in AAA, until needed. If our OF is doing fine, we may hold off on an Anthony promotion even longer.

Good article. No complaints on the ordering.

I've had points in the off season, where I was really down on the Sox, and I'm still pissed we didn't do more, this winter. At least I went into the off season not expecting anything, at all. That being said, I'm trying to see the bright side while remaining realistic and and somewhat objective. Before last season began, I thought we might see some exciting things and wondered how many of the good possibilities needed to come true for it to be a winning season. There was a pretty long list, and maybe surprisingly many did come true. Just not enough. Here is a look at the 2025 everyday players: Devers is as good a place to start as any. While he lagged behind in RBIs, he was on his way to a career high in OPS., and was still at .974 on AUG 7th, but the shoulder issue knocked him and the Sox out of it. His last 36 games saw a .573 OPS. Despite this, he still ended up with his second best career OPS+ at 139. At age 28, I'm not sure why it's not reasonable to think his career year could be 2025. He is in peak prime, now. Maybe- just maybe. To me Casas might be the biggest key to 2025. I can't see him ending up like Bobby Dee, who was still over .800 as he passed his first 550 PAs. Casas is at .830 after 840 PAs (125 OPS+) Health has always been an issue, but the guy averages over 30 HRs per 650 with an OBP nearing .360. It's hard to predict what this 25 year old will do in 2025, but first and foremost, he simply has to get the PAs. Duran is considered the best everyday player on the team by some, and I can't really argue with his 2024 numbers. Seems strange that 2 years ago, hardly anybody saw much promise. Over his last 1097 PAs (2 seasons,) he has an .832 OPS (126 OPS+) 127 XBHs and 58 SBs. His defense went from bad to near GG almost overnight. I'm not sure how many teams have 3 guys that can end up with an OPS over 125 or 130. I'm sure there are some, but I really like our three man core of 25 to 28 olds. The next players have way more questions and or very noticeable flaws, but many have some high promise or hopes. Story has been battling injury, and when he has played, sporadically, he's K'd way too often and shown little production, when compared to his many years w COL. His near GG defense, alone could be a big boost to the team, but as one of our few RHBs with history, I think we need something positive on offense. Realistically, I'm not sure we can expect much. I'm wondering if .725+ is all we can really expect, with maybe some hopes for more. Abreu killed RHPs, last year, but looks to be a platoon bat, until he can show something vs lefties. His defense was really good (GG.) He is also just 25 and was still at .830 on SEPT 8th, last year. Did he hit a wall? Can he hist over .830 for a full season? A 117 OPS+ after his first 475 PAs of his career is not so bad. Rafaela showed a few glimpses of being able to hit, decently. His defense looked real good, but he made too many unforced errors. He was forced to play SS more than he probably should have, but he wasn't all that bad. Word is, we want him in CF as much as possible, but with Anthony banging on the door, I'm not sure he can stick as a starter or FT'er. He has to bring his offense to the next level. I'm not sure 2025 is the year he does that. He's just 24, so who knows? Yoshida and Ref coudl end up being a nice platoon DH, but who wants 2 near DH only players out of your 13 on the roster? Ref has to stay, since we suck vs LHPs and he's a top 20 batter in MLB against lefties. Yoshida has been roasted alive, enough, so I'll let that go. He still has a 113 career OPS+ and might have a good year in him,m at age 30. Wong may have gotten lucky on O, but his D is for real... BAD! I think I spoke about how I felt Wong and McGuire could combine for an OPS over .700. This year, I just hope for improved catcher defense. Is that realistic? Probably not. The 2B mix of LHB DHam and RHBs Romy & Grissom might combine to give us a nice 2B season, but nothing is for sure, here. It's hard to look at DHam's 92 OPS+, Romy's 99 and Grissom's god-awful 31 as encouraging, but after watching EValdez, Reyes and others botch up the middle infield for a few years, I guess it didn't take much for me to feel better about 2B. DHam & Romy combined for 44 SBs in under 550 PAs, so that makes up for some of the low offense. Both looked pretty good at defense- something we haven't seen in a while. Okay, we're missing O'Nell's 473 PAs, but we will not be missing the over 475 PAs of EValdez (.633) McGuire (.575) and Jansen (.623.) Between DSmith, Dalbec and Cooper, we have another 450 PAs of sub .650 batting, easily replaced. Last, but not least, we have Campbell, Anthony and Mayer as total question marks with high ceilings and unknown floors. All are ML ready or very near that. Our biggest needs on offense are at 2B, SS and a RHB OF'er. Low and behold, Mayer plays SS, Campbell plays 2B and OF and is a RHB, and Anthony plays OF with decent splits on the farm. On defense, we need better catching, corner IF and maybe SS, if Story gets hurt, again. The 3 kids can't help much with C, 1B and 3B, but Mayer could help at SS, and maybe Campbell could play 3B, someday. Again, we have a lot of questions, but we have a lot of options that don't all need to come up smelling like roses. Counting Narvaez, who I did not mention, we loom to have 16 everyday players for the 13 slots. That may be just enough. It may not be. I'm feeling pretty good about our O. Our D still scares us and is too dependent on Story, but the 3 kids can help, if they get a look. I'll go over the pitching, tomorrow.

ESPN still says Mar 1st. CBS says "probable" for opening day.

I certainly think this is a big reason for coming up short, but I was for selling in 2023. I don't think trading for Garcia, Sims and Paxton was doing nothing. All were doing pretty good in 2024, but other teams added more or ones that did better. The year we got Schwarber, we almost made the WS, but we also got Robles, Davis, Rios, Iggy and Shaw. These were all guys, we'd be pissed about, had they not did much better than anyone expected. To me, we need to set ourselves up with winter moves, so we don't need 6 summer moves to work out.

The Devers injury hurt. General malaise. The failure of Paxton, Garcia and Sims to even do just okay. Luis Garcia: 3.44 w SDP '22-'23. 3.71 w LAA in '24. 8.22 w BOS. Lucas Sims: 3.10 w CIN in '23. 3.57 w CIN '24. 6.43 w BOS. Paxton did okay, but only gave us 11 IP in 3 GS and got hurt after 3 starts. Martin was not nearly as good as 2023, and missed some time. Slaten went on the IL, and the pen was a disaster. Our starters came down to earth after the first 4-6 weeks, but still did okay (99 ERA- after May 15th.) I mentioned your weighing the second half more, because you mention it a lot. Sorry, if I assumed it mattered more to you than it does. It's a long season, and there is a reason baseball plays 162 games and not 81. I get the argument that you are what your record says you are, but the schedule is not balanced (not blaming it on thet, this year) and some teams just have worse luck than others (not saying we had worse luck.) I'm just saying the 2024 team seemed like a winning team. Not a playoff winning team, but better than a .500 team. I see MIN had a better record than us, despite a negative run diff, but such is baseball. Looking at fWAR, we had the 12th best pitching fWAR and 15th best everyday player fWAR. That averages out above average at around 13.5 ranked or at the 55% spot by fWAR. I'm not saying I have a lot of data that shows we should have won 82-85 games, but they felt like it to me.

Agreed. I can be both. In theory, a tight spending team should realize when a window is open, and choose that time to spend more. I'll ask again, "How soon is now?"

Personally, I'd feel slightly better with jansen as our opening day closer than Handriks or Chapman.