moonslav59

I was talking to the point about the "indecisiveness" of the choice made comment, namely because we waited until February. While I do think Bloom was kicking around various scenarios of trades, I think the "why" is as clear as day: to meet the budget set by JH. I think Max was right: he knew we could not afford Betts, or if we did try to do it, we'd have had to gut much of the supporting cast as we ended up doing, even with trading Betts w half-Price. We also lost Porcello's contract and a few small to moderate ones, too- replacing all these guys with Martin Perez and scrubs. It was a total tear down that was made even worse by ERod missing 2020 and Sale missing almost all of 2020-2022 or 2023. Remember, we never replace Kimbrel & Kelly, the winter before,. That was just the beginning, as we followed up by letting Beni, JD, ERod, Nate, Bogey and others go, in subsequent years. If that is not proof of the "why," what is? It was obviously about the money. What is the alternative theory? Some quotes about there being not set budget or that Betts was going to return? Like, all of a sudden, we are taking their word as truth? If anything, their word should show the opposite, as we've learned since the trade.

Would the Sox and Rays agree to this trade? 5 years of Abreu + Wikelman or Murphy for Pete Fairbanks RHP ($3.7M in '25 w $7M option for '26 w $1M buyout.) Colin Poche LHP (3rd arb '25)

notin, I went to BTV and can't see how you can see player values without paying. What am I missing?

Ian Browne wrote an article asking 5 Qs on the Sox winter needs. 1. Will they get an ace? "An ace can change the confidence level of the club." 2. How to improve the defense? The "quickest solution" is for Story to play a full season, but also this..."Will Devers be asked to move off 3B?" 3. Can they balance out the lineup? "Look for the Sox to go after two right-handed bats." (Bregman, Adames, Teoscar were named, along with O'Neill.) 4. Is Roman Anthony ready to make the club on Opening Day? "There are a lot of moving parts Breslow has to consider." 5. Will Whitlock move back to the pen? "The guess here is the Whitlock will move back to the pen... Whitlock expressed an openness to do whatever the medical staff thinks will keep him the healthiest."

Yes, I shoulda had a C. All of the above

“I think we’re an offseason away, I really do. I mean, I really believe we have the ingredients to take a run at this thing next year.” -Sam "the man" Kennedy Anyone know what this translates to? A or B? A. "Budget cuts on the way?" B. "Our internal options are ready to fill all our needs."

Of course, JH can "afford" anybody, but the 2020 budget cannot be disputed, either. Had we kept Betts, we'd have had to find a full-Price taker plus someone else to trade, like maybe $JD at $15M a year plus Beni and others.

Agreed. I didn't mean to sound like this was all on the scouts. Bloom, JH & Co. made the final call. I do think a lot of stock is put into what scouts say, and apparently they really liked Yoshida. He may still end up hitting better than he's shown, but $18M for a low-powered DH has to be a guy with a .400+ OBP and a ton of doubles.

He had really declined, but yes, me too. I don't think he ever said, "I retire."

Porcello was a modern day rarity. He pitched 170 IP at age 20, 163 IP at age 21 then never under 170 for the next 9 years.

All scouts swing and miss, sometimes, badly. I think we have made some major changes, already, but I'm not sure about the specific people involved. I am pretty certain it was the scouts who got Bloom to want Yoshida. This is usually the case with all these sort of decisions made.

I've mentioned some teams might want him for $3-6M a year, but how many would pay $6-9M a year? Would anyone want him at $10M a year?

I'm not sure that's why we paid to let Sale pitch for ATL. I do think that is an aspect of the Yoshida trade desire, along with the LHB overload. The Price dump as not about having better pitchers in the system. Our 2020 rotation is a testament to that fact. We paid a chunk of Barnes' deal beyond what Blier cost us. We paid a little of Beni's deal, but saved enough to afford Renfroe (or marwin, if you are a glass half-empty guy.). Am I missing anyone else we paid to play elsewhere, since Carl Crawford? I think we DFA'd Pablito. I think we are all done paying other teams, so why not add Yoshida to the tally?

I think they started "shopping" Betts as soon as the settled on a new GM and had their big strategy talks, which was mostly about how to we make massive slashes to the budget. I don't see waiting until February as evidence of indecision. I think they were trying to do better than the measly off the Dodgers gave, but the found none. The Price aspect of the trade was the kicker.

One massively expensive RHB contract is Trout's. He's way to expensive for JH to pay, and he seems to refuse to be moved from CF, and would likely refuse to DH. He's owed $37M a year until 2030 (6 more years!) His lux tax hit is $35M. Even giving LAA Yoshida at $18M x 3, would hardly put a dent into what Trout is paid and will be worth. He just turned 33 and is always hurt- just what we need, right? Anyway, what might a Yoshida for Trout deal look like? How much money would LAA have to pay, beyond the $54M they get in Yoshida? Would adding T Anderson at 413M x 1, lessen the payback amount and sweeten the pot for the Sox? I think he's owed $222M/6. Minus $54M for Yoshida and Maybe another $54M paid years 4-6 would bring the cost to us down to about $19M a year and $17M CBT. I still would not do it. Add T Anderson, and I'd still say no, even if he agreed to DH fulltime. Trout looks like the next Pujols, or maybe he already is him.

Word was the Sox scouts were drooling over Masa for years. He has not come close to earning his keep, and $18M/yr sets a high bar for a DH to meet. I still think finding a team looking to dump an even bigger salary might be the best was to get something for him, but teams looking to dump salary, will not want Yoshida and his contract. Usually, teams looking to shed salary are rebuilding, and Yoshida is not at a point where he would be part of any rebuild. I'm not even sure many teams would take him for nothing in return at $6-8M a year. Maybe a few might take him at $5-6M a year- maybe a few more at $3-4M a year, but that's a hefty loss to take on anyone. This is becoming an awful habit- paying other teams to take our players.

All of these guys would interest almost every team. What are you getting at?

I do not think we should undersell the loss of Pivetta. He was 4th in IP, this year and 3rd in bWAR. He was a horse in previous seasons. Thinking Gio will match his numbers scares me. Losing our two best RP'ers from 2023-2024 scares me, too. Our pen sucked, even with them. No way, am I counting on Henriks and Fulmer to duplicate their production. At minimum, we need one solid SP'er, who projects to 175+ IP, AND we need two solid RP'ers who can close or be 8th inning set-up men, hopefully one is left-handed. That is 3 must gets. We can also use a RHB defensive catcher, with some pop would be real nice. A one year deal makes the most sense, with Teel nearing ML readiness. Swapping 1-2 LHBs for a RHB would help, too, but what position they'd play is in question (CF, RF, 2B and the already mentioned Catcher positions come to mind.)

Yup. My bad.

Well, word was DD almost traded Betts, at the deadline in 2019, but a winning stretch put it on hold. IMO, the idea to trade Betts was a priority from then, until he was actually traded. They had time to make a decision, and I am not sure there were all than many options to choose from- maybe two. I don't think there was "indecision." They decided he would be traded, early. When the injury was discovered on Graterol, maybe there was a period of indecision on how to restructure the deal. but think they were very decisive on trading him, at some point.

True: Anderson only had 9 PAs against in high leverage. Bernardino had 79 (5th most,) but he was doing very well for the first half of '24. These could be replaced by IP from Whitlock or someone better: 75 Kelly (7th most) 69 Weissert (8th) 60 Wink (11th) 30 Booser, 18 Campbell, 11 Joely, 11 Horn 14 other scrubs combined This is almost 250 PAs we can improve on with more from Whitlock, Slaten, hendriks and Fulmer, but maybe a demoted SP'er, too.

You mean Adrian Beltre?

No, but it's more useful than 60-80 from Chase Anderson and Mitch Keller. (Also, maybe it could be 80-100 IP.) The idea is we replace him with someone who goes 180, as well, but with 17 HRs allowed, not 34. (Also, Gio replaces Pivetta, so maybe a new SP'er replace Fitts/Criswell, not Crawford.) 1. ____ 2. Houck 3. Bello 4. Gio 5. Crawford

Great info. Thanks. fWAR 2023-2024 (xFIP) 5.1 Houck (3.76- 5th best) 4.3 Crawford (4.34) 3.9 Pivetta (3.52 3rd best) 3.6 Bello (3.94) 2.5 Jansen (4.30) 2.4 Martin (2.77 best) 2.1 Sale (3.72) 1.5 Slaten (2.90- 2nd best) 1.3 Paxton (4.00) 1.2 Whitlock (3.76 -6th best) 1.1 Criswell (4.43) 1.0 Winckowski (4.01) SP ERA- 87 Houck 93 Pivetta (Soon to be gone) 95 Sale (GONE) 96 Criswell 97 Crawford 99 Paxton (GONE) 100 Bello & Whitlock (to pen?) 155 Kluber (gone) RP ERA- (50+ IP) 50 Martin (to be gone) 69 Slaten 73 Weissert 79 Jansen (to be gone) 80 Wink 83 Bernardino 92 Kelly

Adding a starter might push Crawford to the pen, as a long man. That would help the pen, as well, right?