moonslav59

How is $44M/3 more expensive than $44M/2? I'm including $10M cash to TOr, and I'd give $10-15M more, if needed.

I agree, but having bad pitchers in situations where a game can be blown is one of our weak areas. IP 63 Weissert, 57 Kelly, 52 Anderson, 43 Booser, 25 Keller 18 Horn, 14 Joely, 9 Shugart, 15+ by scrubs High Leverage PAs Against 79 Bernardino (5th on team) 75 Kelly (7th) 69 Weissert (8th) 60 Wink (11th) 30 Booser, 18 Campbell, 11 Joely & Horn, 8-9 Anderson & Keller, 4 Shugart Blown Saves/Opportunities 2/2 Bernardino and 1/1 Kelly 4/5 Weissert 4/6 Slaten & Martin 2/3 Booser 1/3 Wink 4/27 jansen (87%) 3/3 Anderson

136 GS since 2020 is 5th in MLB. He's 6th in IP at 787. 3rd in fWAR. Last 2 years: 5th in fWAR at 8.0 in 62 GS/ 366 IP (both top 15)

4.13 (102 ERA+) and 4.13 FIP Ages 22-27 4.94 (91) 3.65 Ages 28-29 3.07 (130) 2.71 Ages 30-31 3.49 (119) 3.37 Ages 32-33 It's concerning, but turning 34, soon, is what will help reduce the return package- that and his salary. His drop in K/9 could be a sign of a bigger decline to come, but I'd still rather have him starting than anyone we have not named Houck.

BAL out, too! Yee-Haw!

Our 100% healthy, pre-additions 13 man pitching staff could look like this: SP: Houck, Giolito, Bello, Crawford, Fitts (Criswell) RP: Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Criswell, Wink, Fulmer, Guerrero, Penrod C: Wong & Gasper (I think we add a back-up) 1B: Casas 2B: Grissom & DHam SS: Story & Romy 3B: Devers LF: Duran CF: Rafaela RF: Abreu & Refsnyder (Maybe Anthony & an Abreu or Yoshida trade) DH: Yoshida AAA Depth at or near ML ready: SP: Priester, Dobbins, Gambrell, Wikelman, Drohan, I Coffey RP: Weissert, Kelly, I Campbell, Bernardino, Booser, Shugart, Horn, Mata C: Teel (Hickey) 1B: B Gonzalez, 2B: Campbell, SS: Mayer, 3B: Meidroth, OF: Anthony, Sogard, Rosier, DH: EValdez/Binelas

Loved seeing the Astros lose early, today. That ends their 7 straight years ALCS run. I'm pulling for the Tigers. Love the underdog.

Trading Yoshida, this winter, would probably cost us $10-13M out of the $18M salary, every year. That's $30-4oM out of the $54M still owed him. It could still be worth it, if JH doesn't just pocket the savings, since I think we can match or beat Yoshida's projected numbers (.740-.780) with some sort of mix of our bench and platoon players, like Refsnyder, Abreu (if Anthony makes the 26,) E Valdez, DHam or maybe Campbell or Meidroth. Waiting until Yoshida is healthy might increase the return, but I'm not sure waiting makes more sense. He'll take up a roster slot and keep a possible better hitter on the farm. With the $5-7M "saved," we could sign another RP'er or add it to an offer for a SP'er and get a better one.

I'd like to see us add an ace, but a solid 2/3 type is maybe the best I can even dream of. Yes, then add 3-4 Criswell/Anderson types and hope they end up like Criswell.

Soxprospects.com still has the players listed on the 60 Day IL. There are 7 of them, including Paxton, who becomes a FA. That leaves Gio, Hendriks, I Campbell, Murphy, Whitlock & Mata. Not counting anyone to be traded or DFA'd or added for Rule 5 protection, we have 46. We have 7 FAs to be: K Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, O'Neill, D Jansen, Garcia & Sims. That brings us to 39. If you count Dobbins as the sure bet to be protected from Rule 5, we'll be at 40. The bubble players that may go to make room for more Rule 5 or added players might be: 1. Mata (out of options) 2. Gasper (We need a #2 catcher) 3. Sogard T 4. Shugart, Horn, Booser, Wikelman, Murphy Trade candidates/ LHBs: Abreu, DHam, E Valdez and RHP Winckowski

Never seen or heard of tis, before.

They both seem just as scary, to me.

Good points. Meidroth will not be our FT SS. Cespedes probably won't be, either, and certainly not in the next 2-3 years. Counting on Story is getting frustrating. Knowing our luck, Story and mayer will always beinjured at the same exact times.

True. I will say, I don't remember hearing about DD almost trading Betts, until much later.

He's been injured almost as much as Story. If Campbell could play SS, well, they'd keep him over Mayer for sure. The timetable on Arias and Romero might play a role in the choice, too.

Also, I think many thought it probable and said they felt Mookie would be traded.

It's a total guess, and the odds of us ever getting one even close to being accurate are super long. I do think we will need to part with a top prospect to get an ace, and to me, Mayer seems more likely than Anthony. When it comes to Campbell vs Mayer gets the nod for being able to play SS better, but Campbell is the RHB who appears to stay healthier over a tiny sample size. I'd keep Campbell, between the two. I think we have to keep the catcher: Teel. Wong is not good, defensively, and catchers are so hard to find. We already have Arias, Romero and others in the system that may play SS in the future. Mayer makes the most sense to me, and his frequent injuries make me suggest he be traded over the other 3. (That may also hurt the chances another GM takes him over the others, but some GM likely values him more, or they just plain need a SS.)

But when they say "recalled," that can't mean all to the 26, right?

When we traded for Sale, many felt he was minutes from a major injury. His first year, he had 214 IP and 32 GS. He never gave us more tan 158 IP, after that. His 27 GS in 2018 were essential to our record-breaking season, but his 2019 numbers in 25 GS dropped a lot. Nobody is a certain 30+ GS/180+ IP SP'er, but I do think a good GM works to find pitchers who are most likely to do just that. It's almost more important than he skill level- ALMOST. I think Brez tried to do just that with Gio. He swung and missed badly, but how much of it was just hard luck is not easy to determine. The double miss between Gio and Sale was disastrous to our chances, this year. If he just went 1-2, we are likely still playing.

I think it helps adding Gio to the mix, but we subtracted Pivetta, so maybe it's close to a wash. Last full seasons highest fWARs 5.2 Giolito '19, 4.1 in '21 (2.0 in short '20 season) 1.8 in '22 and 0.9 in '23 3.9 Houck '24 2.0 Bello '24 1.9 Crawford '24 (2.4 in '23) 1.1 Criswell '24 0.6 Fitts (4GS) + Priester (1GS) * 1.6 Whitlock '21 (pen)

What might that be? Mayer, Abreu and Dobbins?

Wong was the worst defensive catcher in MLB according to some metrics. He was a plus for batting among catchers, but I think they view him as Teel's eventual back-up who could play 1B or 2B, if needed, and maybe even DH some, if his bat tool improves. He was 26th in Catcher fWAR at 1.7. Since much of fWAR is based on more playing time, his being 13th in PAs by a catcher and 26th ranked is very concerning, to me. That being said, I think we may just add a decent defensive catcher on a 1 year deal to "bridge" to Teel in 2026.

I think MIA will hold off trading Alcantara, in hopes he rebounds and builds up his trade value by the deadline or next winter.

If it wasn't for the high need for a RHB, and let's not fool ourselves about Rafaela's bat vs LHPs being much better than Abreu's, what OF looks best? LF Duran (Ref) CF Anthony (Duran) RF: Abreu (Anthony) or LF: Duran (Ref) CF: Rafaela (Duran/Anthony) RF: Anthony (Ref)

Here is a quick comp between Bloom pitcher additions and Brez pitcher additions (4 years to 1.) Bloom: Whitlock, Pivetta, Wink, Schreiber, Bernardino (Barnes extension & Blier trade) Ottavino Kluber, Richards, Perez I & II, Wacha, Hill, Paxton I Jansen, Martin, Strahm, Kelly, Diekman, Robles, Davis, P Valdez, Sawamura, Andriese Brez: Gios, Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Sandlin Slaten, Weissert, I Campbell, Horn, Anderson, Keller, Uwasawa, garcia, Sims, Paxton II, Hill II Draft (bonus $) Bloom: (Nobody over $600K and one over $500K) 600K Drohan '20 300-600K: E R-C '21, Rogers '22, Dean '22, Duffy '23, Early'23 200-300K Wu-Yelland '20, Olds '21, Ehrlicher '22 Brez: $2M Tolle $1.25M Cason $700K Neely $400K Clarke $300K Aita &Tygart $250K Futrell $200K Brooks I'm pretty sure Brez spent more in bonus money on pitchers over $200M in one year than Bloom did in 4 years combined. There looks to be a marked difference in strategy.