moonslav59

"Compete" includes the strength of other teams, right? The Yanks ar 4-14, recently, but now recent sample sizes don't matter as much to you, anymore. 6 out of the 9 teams ahead of us have worse run differentials- some way worse- like 4 of 9 have 19 or more net runs worse. Here is a good one: All 8 teams above us minus the crappy Yanks have a net run differential of -50 and we are +17. Add the Yanks, and the 9 teams combined are +27 to our +17. Can it be possible we just are not as bad as you think? Can you even entertain that idea?

Since June 19th, the Sox are 11th in runs scored. That's not great, but it's a huge improvement over 28th to 29th. With pitching and defense like we've seen almost all year, maybe 11th is enough... maybe not. We have been 13th in OBP and 15th in SLG, so I'm not talking great offense, but maybe mid tier is enough. Since June 23rd: 10th in OBP & SLG 10th in runs

I'm a big Whitlock fan, and our pen is weak and not deep. To me, pen arms go up and down, and Duran has been headed down for too long. I'm no expert on other team's player values, but I'd consider trading Duran & Whitlock. If we do sell, we should sell Gray, Contreras, IKF, Coulombe and maybe maybe 2-3 year players. I'm on the fence with Contreras.

Watch it, and tell me you dislike it. I dare you.

It wasn't expecting more from Story than 2025, it was expecting better than his 2026. I think everyone knew or expected he might/would do worse, but not this badly. Same with Narvaez. Thank God Wong had flipped the script to about the same degree, but with less PAs. I, for one, did expect more than 2025 from Abreu. I expected more than what we've gotten in 2026 from Durbin, Duran , Narvaez, Story, Abreu, Mayer, Yoshida and Anthony. Maybe I expected too much. I knew all would not improve, but I never expected all these guys to decline. The only true over-expectation everyday guys are Contreras, Wong and Rafaela, and just a little on Ceddanne. Brez wasn't the only guy around who expected better.

That's "piling on Perales?" I haven't heard you say the same about YRod, Holobetz, Jose Bello, and the guy we got for Meidroth.

Yup, they needed Romy, Anthony and another big bat.

In some posters' minds, maybe. I was thinking more like players some posters have talked up like they will be HOF'ers with numbers that look far from HOF'ers. Okay, Sale & Harrison, Sale & Harrison, Sale & Harrison- that's 6 in some minds.

Umm, they already started improving. 30th to 16th over the last month. Haven't you been the small sample guy, recently?

So, maybe buy & sell?

Why not say 10-2 in their last 12?

Can I ask those who have already packed in the season, where we'd need to be by the deadline (AUG 3) to change your mind on selling? (Not saying be buyers, but just not sell.) 21 games to the deadline.

What ever happened to "the playoffs are a crapshoot?" I'm not even in that camp, but so many teams looked like non contenders in early to mid July, only to make very strong pushes through the playoffs. We've also seen teams that look like clear top contenders on July 9th, only to collapse and not even make the playoffs- extended format or not. Not that the Sox went deep into the playoffs, last year, but they were 4th in the ALE, last July 9th. They were 43-45 on July 2nd and nearly bottom tier (9th out of 15 AL teams in winning%)

Can they win, if they start hitting HRs and play 10th to 15th offense the rest of the way? How about as well as the last month? June 10th> 16th in runs (2 behind 14th) 18th in HRs (3 behind a tie for 12th) Personally, I think we need to improve on even our last month's offense to have a chance at making AND advancing in the playoffs, but this offense looks a lot better than 28th to 30th. Our everyday player fWAR, which includes defense ranks T11th at 4.1. (3rd in D and 16th in batting/running) We still need to keep improving, but to think we can't is being a bit pessimistic, IMO. Then, when you look at the teams we need to beat, only the Rays look real tough, and don't be surprised if they have a long bad stretch in them. The Yanks have the second best record, but look horrible, recently. Trades will be made to improve some of these teams, and maybe we will be buyers and improve. Maybe Anthony, Crochet and others return and do well- maybe not. Maybe other teams have returning players. I'm still leaning "sell mode," but that pendulum is swinging towards buy pretty forcefully, right now.

Yes, look at the entire body of work, including guys like O'Neill who have come and gone- guys like Buehler, too, of course. Look at the roster and farm he inherited vs the one now. Look at the roster, years of control and budget cost projections of each. Tell me we have not gotten significantly better. End of 2023: https://soxprospects.com/2023SE.htm Highlights: SP: Sale, Bello, Pivetta FA), Houck, Crawford RP: Jansen, Martin, Wink, Whitlock, Bernardino, Schreiber, Murphy C: McGuire & Wong 1B Turner (FA) Dalbec 2B E Valdez & P Reyes 3B Devers SS Story LF Verdugo CF Rafaela RF Abreu DH Duvall (FA)Yoshida & Refsnyder Farm (sp,com rankings) Antony, Mayer, Teel, Bleis, Yorke, Perales, Wikelman, Cespedes, Zanetello

All but two AL teams are within 5 games. All but 4 are within 4 GB (4 teams ate 2-3 GB in the loss column to the last 2 WC teams.) In the NL, all but 4 teams are within 5.5 GB, but AZ is 7 GB in the loss column. Count them out, and there are 4 teams 4.5 or better behind (all within 4 GB in losses.) That's 9 teams that are more than 4 GB in losses. That does not mean 21 teams will be actively looking to overpay for what they need. By the end of the month, a few may drop out, but then again AZ or DET could join the group. Guys like Duran are the type several teams may look to give 8-10 BTV for his 5.6, maybe more if they think he's "fixable." I'm not talking Paredes (20 BTV) for Duran, anymore.

Some of these teams have not and likely will not come THIS close to the playoffs for several more year. Hell, some teams were thought to be 3-4 years away fro having any shot, this past March. Some may not want to spend a big chunk of change, so maybe Gray & Chapman are not going to be pursued, but Duran will be owed between $2-3M, and he won't cost a ton- just more than his worth.

I'm always higher on the farther away prospects than most. The dropped Soto 2 slots plus the two bt attrition. Primera does have 150+ sample size, which is small, but not real small. His 30 PAs at SAK have not started well. They also jumped Delzine from 23 to 10, although 3 prospects graduated above him. The youngest prospects ranking changes: 36>7 Primera (19 y/o) 23>10 Delzine (18) 9>11 Soto (18) 18>15 Rivas (18) 17>28 Ramos (18) 29>26 Silverio (17) __________________ 8>5 Gonzales (19) 15>6 Azocar (19) ( I did not list the many 20 y/o's)

MLB ERA SP Leaders (47+ IP) 1.65 Misiorowski 1.71 Bryce Miller 1.79 Ohtani 2.01 Schlitter 2.25 ERod 2.27 Sale 2.28 Wheeler 2.49 Yamamoto 2.54 Burns 2.56 Cease 2.58 Meyer 2.61 Gray 2.61 N Martinez 2.62 Sanchez 2.64 Bennett 2.64 Mize 2.69 Wrobleski 2.77 Griffin 2.78 Rasmussen 2.80 Messick 2.83 McClanahan 2.85 Joe Ryan 2.88 Urena 2.97 Drohan 3.01 McGeevy 3.01 Harrison 3.06 Skubal 3.07 Soroka 3.10 Ginn 3.14 Tolle 3.15 Montero 3.15 Suarez We may have 4 ex Spx pitchers in the top 30, but we also have 4 active ones.

I think to a large extent Brez will take the best player available- pitcher or everyday player, but the question might be does he place higher value on pitchers? We've graduated 4 pitchers, this year, and the next guy is Bennett, but all is not doom & gloom for our everyday player pipeline outlook. Here are the ETAs of our top 16 prospects: Everyday: Early/Mid2027: #1 Arias Late 2027 or 2028: #5 Gonzales #8 Godbout #14 Cespedes, #16 Romero ______________ Pitchers Early/Mid 2027: #2 Eyanson Late 2027 or 2028: #3 Witherspoon #12 Phillips, #13 Holobetz

I think he would have been fine at 1B. He has decent reflexes, and his arm was a major issue at 3B. I'm glad we traded him without paying a big chunk of his deal. We got Harrison who turned into Durbin. That may not be great, but it's better than Wong for Betts.

6 game sample size in July. The H-A splits are weird with the shape of the ball park.

Someone claimed the Breggie signing was done to begin the Devers offloading. (LOL)

If anyone has not seen Jacob's Ladder, I highly recommend it and won't spoil the ending.

The other factor might have been: Yoshida not Duran but Paredes not Mayer/Story/Monasterio/Cheng