moonslav59

There is also the component of years of control and cost. I'm not saying Rafaela is better than Duran, but bWAR and fWAR put them pretty close. fWAR 3.9 Duran (.0056 per PA is number 4 per PA) 3.8 Rafaela (.0065) 2.7 Anthony (.0089) 2.4 Abreu (.0058) bWAR 4.7 Rafaela & Duran (Rafaela in less games and PAs) 3.2 Abreu (higher bWAR per PA than Duran & Rafaela) 3.1 Anthony (#1 in bWAR/PA)

I'd say Catcher, CF, RF and SS should be about the same on defense. IKF adds better defensive depth at SS. 1B: Improved with Contreras 2B: improved with Mayer/Romy/IKF 3B: worse than Bregman but not bad with Durbin/IKF/Mayer LF: improved with Anthony> Duran

I meant better or equal bat, but I think KMarte & Paredes will be better bats in 2026- probably Neto, too. Better offense, adds baserunning, and maybe Duran passes a few batters on the top O list. I know OPS is not a perfect stat, but out of 274 samples of qualifying players in the 2024 and 2025 seasons, here is where Duran's two seasons placed: #49 Duran in '24 at .834 #109 Duran in '25 at .774 KMarte #11 in 2024 and #18 in 2025 Combine 2024 and 2025 (500+ PAs) 6. KMarte .913 48. Duran .805 61. Bregman .791 69. Chisholm .784 78. Neto .776 Others: 9. Schwarber .890 16. Devers .860 25. Refsnyder .833 27. Alonso .830 40. Willson .813 47. E Suarez .806 65. Romy .786

I think Contreras will help fill the "clubhouse" void left by Bregman's departure. Sonny Gray and Suarez might, too. While much of the roster turnover was on the fringes, except for Bregman and Gio, there has been a lot of departures. Before the 2025 season even ended, we lost Devers, Newcomb, Buehler, DMay, Burdi, Sabol, and several to injuries. After the season, we lost... Bregman & Gio Dobbins & Fitts Wilson & Matz Lowe & Refsnyder Bernardino, Hicks & Murphy Jh Garcia, ICampbell, Criswell &Sandlin Perales, Drohan, Clarke, Guerrero, Mata & others. Houck may not pitch for the whole season. That's over 14 players who saw MLB action in 2025.

He'd have to have caught some during the season, which may not happen. Someone should ask Cora if there is a chance Willson catches a few games.

Okay. I get your point. The guy switched positions and stayed in MLB, because his bat seemed to be getting better- not worse, and we got him for offense, and certainly not to catch, so I didn't see the connection. He might add a little value as our emergency catcher, but I'd rather he not even workout as a catcher, anymore. Focus on hitting and playing a decent 1B. BTW, my Dad passed away last fall at the age of 98. My mom passed away a few months earlier at 88. My Dad was physically active up to a week before he passed. His mind was as sharp as ever until 3 days before. I was very lucky.

More likely they are close to tie in OPS+. I'd give the edge to Willson to be higher. I'd also give the edge to Willson for better health, despite the age difference. I worry about Bregman's bat. He looked god-awful to start 2024, and people down here were saying it's good his years of control were coming to and end. 134 OPS+ in '22 (after two down years) 122 in 2023 116 in 2024 In 2024, he was at .535 on May 12th. He was under .590 on May 27th (game 51 of his season) He got hot for a week, then hit about .700 for the rest of June. From game 80 to 145 in 2024, he hit .844. He began the 2025 season like a career year, but then the injury and slowdown occurred. I just did not have a ton of confidence in his bat, going forward. Great teammate. Great clubhouse guy and mentor. Excellent defensive 3Bman.

If he was a bad defensive 2Bman, I'd be more worried. Perhaps the brutal 2B play over the last decade, both on offense and defense has numbed my sense to where I can accept some awful defense, if the offense is still a plus, but I really liked KMarte as "THE SOLUTION." We needed a 2B/3Bman more than 1B and certainly much more than DH. I think of Alonso as a DH pretending to play 1B. That's not to say I did not want Alonso or Schwarber, but KMarte was THE FIT. Neto might have been #2, although I never really thought of him as an option, until I read about the near miss - or not so near miss. (Assume Mayer & Tolle for KMarte 1. L Anthony CF 2. S KMarte 2B 3. L Duran LF/ R Contreras 1B 4. R Neto SS 5. R Contreras1B / L Duran LF 6. L Abreu RF/ R Story 2B 7. R Story 2B/ L Abreu RF 8. L Casas-Yoshida/ R Romy-Campbell DH or Rafaela CF 9. R Narvaez C Maybe we still trade for Durbin and not sign IKF.

The guy has aged very well. That was my point and response to "showing signs of aging." I didn't take that to mean gray hair.

I agree. Bregman will likely outWAR Willson, I was thinking OPS+.

I'd rather we had the extra infielder than OF'er, but adding IKF was a smart choice. It is good having depth, and if we lose an OF'er for a big chunk of the season, I will be eating Crow for breakfast, lunch and dinner. My position is that all 9 slots come first, then depth. Since Duran can DH, that counts for something significant. Our offense is better with him in it. Since our offense is our weakest area in general, trading him seems counterintuitive. Maybe I have more faith than I should in a DH mix of Masa/Casas (LHB) & Campbell/Romy (RHB) than I should. Maybe Duran his more like 2024 than 2025 and most of those guys putter and stuggle. That is certainly possible. I wanted a second big bat. Contreras kinda counts as one, and we needed a decent 1Bman. That left 2B or 3B to add a nice bat. We had already traded some SP'er depth to add Gray and Contreras, so the obvious place to take from was the OF, plus maybe adding Tolle/Early/Witherspoon if we went real big. I chose Duran for several reasons, but Rafaela made sense, too. 1. I'm only trading Duran for a better bat. 2. Duran is the worst defender of the 4. 3. Duran has the least amount of control of the 4. 4. Duran turns 30, this year. The other 3 are pre-prime. 5. The drop in hits, 2Bs, 3Bs, HRs, OBP, SLG and SBs from 2024 to 2025 is a little concerning. It's not like he was the model of consistency before his half 2023 season plus 2024. I'd have been fine keeping O over D and trading Rafaela. I even suggested a few Abreu trades.

I think I read somewhere that STL was thinking he might catch a few games in 2025, before they traded him. That might have been said to improve trade value, but at worst, he can be an emergency catcher. When you said "shows signs of aging," I took that as showing a downward trend. While 2025 was lower than 2024, I guess you could say yes, he is, but it was one of his top 3 career years, so some context is needed. I think not catching and his move to Fenway is going to lead to a year as good as or better than Breggie's 2026 season.

Wild to the extreme, YES!!!!!!!!!!!!

STL had some very nice young catchers. Yes, everyone is aging.

I'm only trading Duran for a better batter and a position we need more. Otherwise, I'm not for trading offense away.

It might depend on the GM to view all those years of control for Ceddanne as a good or bad thing. BTV Value: 63 Anthony (9 yrs) 7 per year (2.7 fWAR) 42 Duran (3 years) 14 per year (3.9 fWAR) 36 Rafaela (7 yrs) 5.2/yr (3.8 fWAR) 32 Abreu (4 yrs) 8/yr (2.4 fWAR) 2025 bWAR: 4.7 Rafaela & Duran 3.2 Abreu (almost 2/3 the games) 3.1 Anthony (half the games) Projected fWAR in 2026 3.5 Anthony 3.2 Rafaela 2.4 Duran & Abreu

How is it disrespect to want to get KMarte for him? Nobody has said trade Duran for Prospects, except in jest (or if you are MVP).

He is perhaps one of the toughest upcoming prospects to project. I'd go so far as to say it's not outlandish to think he could make the alls tar team or spend the whole season in AAA, assuming we stay infield injury free.

I get that, and I have said I'd have to see what the demand was for Neto, before blaming Brez for the near miss. I think I heard the demand for KMarte was Mayer & Tolle. I'd have done that and the Durbin & Contreras deals. It would be a gamble, and KMarte is not getting any younger.

Rafaela is not my 4th choice, but I fully understand why he is yours and others. If I knew were adding so little offense, I'd have gladly traded Rafaela for an infield bat. Maybe even Rafaela for Paredes and King.

Funny how Van Gogh is my favorite painter, too. Maybe we get Neto for Rafaela and Arias? (Add Phillips or valera, if needed?) I might do Mayer and Rafaela for Neto or KMarte plus MAYBE a prospect. Now, Contreras at 1B over Alonso makes much more sense. We could still do the Durbin trade. The money for KMarte might mean no Sonny Gray, but for Neto we coulda done it all.

Narvaez will be our FT catcher. Contreras will be our FT 1Bman. I have no idea if Contreras will suddenly show signs of decline. It could happen at any time and to various degrees. He turns 34 in May. That is post-prime. He has done very well from age 30 to 33. That may mean something or not, but I took issue with someone saying he has shown signs of decline more than Bregman and Alonso. I'm glad he's no longer crouching in a catcher's stance half the game.

Re-work the fleece.

Yes, and at what other time is that true than when you are in a 3+ year window with a bunch of talented players in prime or neatring primes, all at once? We've disagreed on going all in every year, but to me, this was/is that time. I don't view prospects as suspects, like you, but I was willing to part with Tolle & Mayer for KMarte. I'm not sure what LAA wanted for Neto, but I'd give up an overpay to get the guy we need- not the better value guy. Hell, go ahead and get Durbin and trade Mayer for Neto. Value and better.

Playing it halfway or no way was worse than doing the opposite of whatever. I wanted to sell, but I'd have been happier if we bought than doing nothing.