moonslav59

To me, he seems worse than his .617 OPS indicates, for a few reasons: 1. His OBP is 70 points lower than 2025. 2. His .269 OBP in the one slot killed us. 3. Seemingly more baserunning blunders. 4. We avoided trading him with the expectation he'd be a top 3-4 offensive weapon on the team. His 76 OPS+ is 5th out of 5 batters with 300+ PAs. It's 6th out of 7 batters with 190+ PAs. (6th out of our top 9 batters by PAs, but Wong will likely pass Narvaez in the top 9 and someone might pass Mayer & Story, who are below Duran, right now in OPS.

Of course he faced 1-2-3-4 more as a SP'er, but he did not face 7-8-9 batters as much as you implied as the second inning pitcher. Yes, it helped, but it looks like that was not the main issue.

The draft has begun (NBC for the first few picks.) 1. Roch Cholowsky SS UCLA (CWS) Ranked 2nd on MLB list 2. Grady Emerson SS HS (TBR) Ranked 1st 3. Vahn Lackey C GA Tech (MIN) 3rd 4. Jackson Flora SP UC-SB (SFG) 4th 5. Derek Curiel OF LSU (PIT) 12th 6. Zion Rose OF Louisville (KCR) 30th 7. Eric Booth OF HS (BAL) 6th 8. Drew Burress GA Tech (OAK) 7th 9. AJ Gracia OF VA (ATL) 19th 10. Tyler Bell SS KY (COL) 10th 11. Chris Hacopian 2B TX A&M (WSH) 14th 12. Jared Grindlinger OF HS (LAA) 16th 13. Trevor Condon OF HS (STL) 13th 14. Jacob Lombard SS HS (MIA) 5th 15. Ryder Helfrick C ARK (AZ) 11th 16. Gio Rojas LHP HS (TEX) 8th 17. Logan Hughes OF TX Tech (HOU) 42nd 18. Justin Lebron SS ALA (CIN) 19. Liam Peterson P FLA (CLE) 20. Jake Schaffner SS NC BOS LHB #75 Maybe we took an under slot player with the idea of taking an overslot player, later. Top ranked remaining prospects we might have taken: 15. Cameron Flukey RHP Coastal Carolina 17. Hunter Dietz LHP ARK 18. Ace Reese 3B MISS St 21. Bo Lowrance 3B HS

7-8-9? In the second inning? 1st game after an opener, he faced 9-1-2 (got all out), and the next inning 3-4-5-6 and let up one ground ball single. Game 2 after an opener: he faced the 5-6-7-8-9-1 batters and did struggle but did get the #1 batter out to end the inning with just 1 run allowed. Game 3 (after getting a GS in between) Here he did face the 7-8-9 and a CS helped him not face the #1 batter, He did struggle the next inning with the 1>6 batters, but allowed no runs. Game 4: Samaniego faced 9 batters in the first, so Bello started the second inning vs the 1-2-3 batters. He let up 1 single, got a K and two groundouts. This allows me to say, "Yes, I'm sure." Yes, as a SP'er his 1.357 OPS Against in the first inning could be related to facing the 1-2-3-4 batters, but he obviously did better vs those 1-2-3-4 batters over the full game than the first inning, so that kind of deflates the "against good batters" argument. .708 v 1 slot 1.037 v 2 slot (better than 1.357) 1.071 v 3 slot (better as well) .715 v 4 slot The fact is, he started off way more slowly when starting the first inning rather than the second inning, and it was not related to facing the 7-8-9 batters in the second, as the batting slots seemed about equal between the two sample sizes.

The thing is, using an opener was against his habit & routine, and it worked.

I'm fine with that idea, even if we don't use an opener. I'm just giving the facts on how it seems like a mental/emotional issue and not physical and not likely mechanical, unless his head messes with his mechanics. Since are using an opener, today, having Bello come into the second inning and maybe going 5-6 innings would be fine by me. To add Rivera and Bello, we'd have to cut loose Watson or IL him. Okay by me.

Nope in '25, and the sample sizes were wide. v LHPs Duran .664 in '24 in 208 PAs(His career year) .600 in '25 in 209 PAs (in 3 X the PAs as Abreu, who was better.) Abreu .532 in 67 PAs in '24 (Yes, he was worse.) .676 in 68 PAs in '25

When he started a game in the second inning, he did not need an inning to get up to speed.

Since June 24th, the Sxo are 11th in Runs scored (4th in AL), 18th in HRs (7th in AL) and 13th in OPS (5th in AL.) 11th in fWAR (4th in AL.) Pitching fWAR: 1st at 3.5 - a full 0.8 ahead of TEX!

Because they are bound to be overtaxed going forward: 2 doubleheader make-up games 3-4 starters maxing out on IP limits pretty soon It would have been helpful to have yet another SP'er wo can go 5 IP, today. We do have the ASB coming up, so maybe this is chicken littling it.

Yes. I know! They should just rolled with it, instead of making him start again.

I have to ask without sounding mean: "Are you serious?"

Ref was one of baseballs best batters vs LHPs for a 3 year stretch. Yoshida at DH, then Anthony kinda squeezed Ref into the OF. The real mistake was platooning Abreu not Duran. (Not just for defensive reasons either.)

That hints at mental/emotional issues. He looked nasty after an opener.

With all the injuries we've seen, not just on the Sox, but MLB in general, the bench seems to be as valuable as ever, and it got me thinking about how well ours has been doing. Much talk has been focused on trading away pitching depth like Harrison, Drohan and Priester the year before and Sale the year before that, but a lot more players were traded away that are not talked about as much. On the pitching: IMO, our starting 5 and depth going 5-6 deep looked as good as any other team in MLB. We were likely ranked top 3-5 in both categories. One could argue we lost our #1 Crochet, our #4 Houck, our #5/6 Crawford, #6/7 Sandoval and #7/8 Oviedo. On top of that our #5/6 Bello imploded. Despite missing the aforementioned starters, our rotation depth has carried us to having a shot at the playoffs. Last year, we looked pretty deep, too, but ended up needing to trade for DMay. We are seeing Rivera pitch today, too. There never seems to be enough. Let's look at the everyday depth. It sure looks like Brez chose a good time to not bring Refsnyder, DHam and others back. The one guy doing well, Nate Lowe was replaced by Contreras, so it's hard to look at that swap out in a bad light. 2025 Depth listed in order of most PAs .726 Narvaez 446 PAs (most saw Wong as the #1 2 winters ago) .826 Romy 341 PAs (was expected to be a platoon and played v RHPs a lot.) .859 Anthony 303 (was expected to be called up at some point- maybe 2026?) .659 Toro 284 (started out okay then faded fast) .838 Refsnyder 209 (was big help for a few years) .590 DHam 194 (can't believe some cried about losing him) .674 Mayer 136 (Many felt was rushed up to the bigs) .790 N Lowe 119 (Mid season addition) .661 Sogard 104 (did okay) .731 Eaton 90 (did fine) 29 PAs from Sabol, Ali Sanchez and JH Garcia The 2024 bench was highlighted by the circus carrousel at 2B (317 PAs DHam, 223 EValdez, 216 Romy, 114 Grissom) and the awful back-up 1B plan that Dom Smith (.706) sort of rescued as a late season add on. Dalbec and Cooper- oh my! McGuire struggled as the back-up catcher and we added Danny Jansen late. How about the 2026 bench? .710 Yoshida 196 PAs (has been improving over the season) .629 Monasterio 161 (steady on D) .705 IKF 132 (great on D but on IL, now) .775 Wong 130 (rescued the Narvaez disaster season) .613 Gasper 119 (had a nice first 8 games then kaput) .855 Seigler 75 (a big reason we are winning, now.) .721 Sogard 41 (on the IL) .721 Romy 37 (welcome back) .766 Eaton 36 (nice) .616 Cheng 29 (plus SS defense) Brett Harris has 3 PAs

Good point, and while he was a bit up and down from level to level, he did hit .875 in AAA. He kinda struggled in lower levels: .721 RK (95 PAs) .679 A- (221) .737 A+ (492) .693 AA (697) His .501 start to his MLB career, last year in about the same amount of PAs as this year drags his career OPS to below his minor OPS. .682 MLB .747 Minors

This game is up to the pen. They've really done an amazing job, this year, and seemingly have overperformed for several years, recently. With so many starters already past their career highs in IP or about to soon, the pen should not be asked to do this, today. Looking at out upcoming schedule, we have two doubleheaders scheduled. Luckily, one is the first game after the ASB followed by 5 straight days with games, so we will need a 6th starter or pen game then, too. The one that really worries me is in August, when we play 19 games in 18 days with no days off.

We've drafted pretty well for a few years, so I think these guys know what they're doing, but I'm hoping the guys they pick are big bat types. If they don't I won't be bummed. Good pitchers fetch good bats in trade, or guys like Gray and Bennett.

Let's say the most Duran optimistic GM thought he'd decline from 8 to 4: they'd still have made a hefty offer.

While nobody expected a repeat of 2024 in 2025 or ever again, i don't think anybody projected this steep of a decline. The fact is an 80% of the 2025 Duran (who was 80% of the 2024 Duran)would have been very helpful in 2026. I don't want to sound like I'm defending the guy I suggested trading more than everyone else combined, but none of us expected this bad. I do agree we should have traded him, but I'm biased. I wanted to trade him before 2024, too, so I'm not gloating, here.

Someone would have given up something good after 2024 and something better than now after '25, but I agree. I have been for trading Duran for a long time, but one argument made sense to me: "When our weak area was obviously offense, why trade your top 3 offensive weapon, even if he has shown decline before reaching prime.?"

As a plan, yes, but depending on the roster, it is clearly indicated at other positions, too. BTW, it's good to see Abreu hitting LHPs well. Now, if he can only hit RHPs like his old self, we might see that bust out year I've been hoping for. v RHP: .679 v LHP: .982 He's brought his career numbers near even: .790 v R .766 v L

Rafaela has shown continuous growth and improvement to anyone and everyone willing to see it. What may be the most surprising is the acceleration of that growth, this year. I'm not just talking about the consistency we've seen from game to game and week to week, but he is no longer getting himself out as much. Someone was saying they felt like no pitcher ever overpowered or dominated Rafaela, and that his issue was always himself getting himself out by swinging at balls he had no business swinging at, but now he is more patient, he shortens up his swing, when needed, and he has a little pop, too. I'm not a big ASG matters guy, but I'm happy for him. I'm sure it matters to him he made it. Some Ceddanne numbers: 2023+2024>2025>2026 K%: 27.1>19.9>19.3 BB%: 2.9>4.8>5.0 LD%: 23.8>21.4>26.8 (major bump in '26) Hard Hit%: 36.6>38.6>32.4 (down here) Oppo%: 18.7>17.3>23.4 (major bump) BA: .246>.249>.283 (WOW!) OBP: .275>.295>.331 (Amazing!) SLG: .389>.414>.437 (About as steady as can be) I will say, that the one time I ever heard Fred say he "might be wrong" was on Ceddanne.

Platoon DH seems like the best we can do. I don't see a better option on the roster. Other than Duran, nobody has more trade suggestions by me than Yoshida, but with Anthony out and so many bats struggling, including LHB Duran, Yoshida t DH vs RHPs is clearly the best option.

There certainly was something Cora and Co. was not happy about. Did anyone ever find out the specifics? Something about not following their approach or winter workout plan? It's hard to pinpoint, but the SP'er vs coming in after an opener disparity hints at between the ears issues.