moonslav59

I'm not doubting you personal observations, but somebody must like a lot of what they have seen from Sandlin and Tolle. Of course, both will need to improve to advance to the bigs, but the same can be said about almost every good pitching prospect. I may sound hypocritical, since with pitching I have always been a strong advocate of quality over quantity as a foundational strategy, but I do think the sheer quantity of decent looking pitchers on the farm, who have some level of "quality" and room for growth makes for an interesting situation. We don't need all to succeed. Hell, 2 out of 3 could suck, and we might still end up with a decent 7-10 guys, where 2-3 end up doing very well and 2-3 fill s key role on the big club. Is it that hard to imagine 4-6 from this group making a difference, someday? 6. Perales Grad Priester, 12 Fitts, 11 Dobbins, 13 Tolle, 14 Sandlin 21. Guerrero, 20. Cason, 18 Wikelman, 23, Valera, 24 Penrod, 25 ERod, 26 Monegro 8 Paez, 29 Mullins, 33 Wehunt, 39 Bastardo, 41 Dean, 42 Carlson , 57 I Coffey, 58 Rogers 27 Reyes, 36 Neely, 37 Clarke, 38 Tygart, 44 Ingrassia, 60 Ehrlicher Long shots: Mata, Gambrell, G Jackson, Uberstine There is over 30 pitchers on this list. We need maybe 10-15% to make an impact.

Technically, it comes to about $36M x 5, but the deferred money mayes it about $32M x 5. (I just used MLBTR numbers. They missed Kikuchi by just $1M a year and had the 3 year length right.)

Trout is the scary warning sign example. He played in 157-159 games four years in a row from age 21-24. There was no indication of future injury issues, except maybe that he played the CF position hard. From age 25 on, here are the most games played in descending order: 140 (age 26) 134 (27) 119 (30) 114 (25) 82 (31) 53, 36, 29 GOD! That is frighteningly ugly!

I agree, but it is hard to predict how players age. Soto seems like he could hit .800 in his sleep or using a walker. Just get it done!

SEA is known for making trades that seem to come out of nowhere. They know their rotation is their strength, and that they are likely over-valued due to their numbers at home helping them look better than they maybe are. I do agree on Castillo, since they could then use the "savings" on acquiring another SP'er to replace a guy that may already be on the decline. I'd love to see us get Castillo, despite the decline risk, if we can include Yoshida, somehow, but then that takes away the big savings part of the SEA half. Yoshida + _____ for Castillo & Garver might be a framework to work with. That would save them a lot. It would also cost us less than signing Burnes or Fried, and we'd rid ourselves of Yoshida and open the DH slot for Casas/Devers and allow Devers to play 1B, unless it is Yoshida + Casas for Castillo & Garver.

I do wonder how much the QO will affect our decision-making process. While re-signing Pivetta does NOT cost us a pick, we would gain one by not signing him. Other QOs: Burnes & Fried probably does not matter. Nick, Martinez, Manaea & Severino might. Soto: Not. Bregman and Adames: probably not. Teoscar: maybe. Do we go hard for the non QO's? Flaherty, Nate (maybe both, instead of one big one?) Scott, Hoffman, Holmes and Esteves (maybe 2 from these 4?) O'Neill Could we end up with Flaherty, Nate, Scott, Holmes & Higgy? How many would be happy with that winter? What if we added a big trade for a big RHB?

It never hurts to have depth. Maybe they can prolong leaving some of our top prospects, like Meidroth, off the 40, a bit longer.

I think the Sox young core may attract a lot of FAs to Boston. It's been a long time being able to say that. The rebuild was too long. The last place finishes, too painful. I told myself, I was not going to let hope turn into expectation, but it's creeping into my soul. I'm a fool.

Agreed. SEA is not in a position to make a 3 for 1 trade. Even 2 for 1 may be too much. Abreu & Crawford might be close. Mayer straight up?

So, according to MLBTR projections: Snell $182M/5 is $22M over the $160M/5 call. Kikuchi $63M/3 is $3M over the $60M/3 call. It's hard to tell if costs are going up a lot, or not. Who will be the next signing? Soto? Burnes or Fried? Bregman or Adames? Teoscar or Scott? Flaherty, Manaea, Nate, Martinez, Pivetta or Severino? Alonso, Walker, Santander or O'Neill Hoffman, Estevez or Holmes,

I'm glad Snell went somewhere else. I'd rather get Fried, Burnes or trade for someone. I'd rather get 2 from Nate, Pivetta, Flaherty, Severino, Martinez, Manaea than Snell, or one plus Scott. If we end up being shut out, I won't be crying about Snell.

With SEA, everyone is available for the right price.

If we have $70M to spend and not go over the tax line ($90M to second line,) what combination of FAs do you choose, base on MLBTR's AAV? 46 x 13 Soto 32 x 5 Snell 29 x 7 Burnes 27 x 6 Adames 26 x 6 Fried 23 x 5 Flaherty 22 x 2 Nate 21 x 1 Pivetta & N Martinez 20 x 3 Manaea 20 x 3 Teoscar 17 x3 Severino 15 x 1 Buehler 14 x 4 T Scott 14 x 3 O'Neill 14 x 1 Yates 12 x 1 Bieber 11 x 4 Hoffman 10 x 3 Holmes 10 x 2 Jansen 9 x 3 Estevez 7.5 x 2 Higgy At $70M, we could go Soto, Severino and Higgy, or Soto, Scott & Jansen Burnes, Fried & Scott or Burnes, Fried, Holmes & Higgy (kinda over) Fried, Pivetta, Scott & Higgy or Fried, Scott, Hoffman, Holmes & Higgy at $90M, WOW! Soto, Fried & Scott or Soto, Nate, Scott & Higgy Burnes, Fried, Teoscar & Scott Burnes, Fried, Scott, Hoffman & Higgy

It does seem like we can improve, greatly with 2 major signings and 1 major trade. If we make it 4 major deals, we could be a top 4-5 favorite. Burnes or Fried Soto or Bregman.Adames (move Devers to 1B if not Soto) Tanner Scott Trade Casas (if Devers moved to 1B) and/or Abreu and others for a SP

MLBTR reports the Sox may be out to get two top SP'ers, this winter. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/latest-on-red-sox-rotation-plans.html I'd love it! Maybe sign 2 and trade for a righty bat not pitching.

They seem very close, to me.

Mt new ranking: 1. Detroit 10-1 2. Buffalo 9-2 3. KC 10-1 4. Minn 9-2 5. PHI 9-2 6. GB 8-3 7. PIT 8-3 8. BAL 8-4 9. HOU 7-5 10. LAC 7-4 and WSH 7-5

Agreed. Soto will be 26 for the full 2025 season. That is still "pre-Prime." Then, he has 5 years of "Prime" at ages 27-31. That's 6, total, before we may start seeing some decline. My guess is the decline will be slow, and his ages 32-34 seasons will be very good, and 35-36 decent. He may even be okay from 37-39 or 40.

Would SEA take Yoshida and Casas for Castillo & Garver? Garver could be the back-up Catcher, until Teel arrives, and DH some, but he is really just a salary dump by SEA. I'm wondering, if we could make the deal without Garver.

Woo will be 25 and has 5 years of control. This is the type of guy we need. Despite allowing 27 HRs in 843 PAs against, he still has an amazing .628 OPS Against (.267 OBP against) He has a .664 OPSA on the road, so the big home park thing might be overblown. Woo had about 50 more IP than Crochet from 2023 to 2024. Crochet's OPSA is .635, which is about the same as Woo. He's allowed 21 HRs in 911 PAs and a .288 OBP. He is 25. Both look like nice "gets," and as MVP suggested, they be nice as our #2 behind Burnes or Fried. Burnes/Fried Woo/Crochet Houck Bello Crawford/Giolito

He's 26, so maybe they let it slide.

Hell, let's go to age 41 and a 16 year deal!

It's hard to know who the best choice is for a top of rotation pitcher. Burnes is only 30, but he dropped off a bit, this season. 190+ IP for 3 straight years is a nice plus. Just over 900 IP for his career makes one think he's not at the end of the line. He still finished 18th in fWAR and 14th in ERA-. ERA- 74 Burnes 77 Woo & Snell 78 B Miller & Fried 79 Flaherty 80 Wacha 84 Lorenzen 87 Manaea 88 Crochet 94 Nate 96 L Castillo '23-'24 62 Snell 72 Fried 76 Burnes 78 Wacha 89 Castillo 90 Lorenzen, B MIller & Nate 93 Manaea 94 P Lopez 97 Flaherty 100 Pivetta

How about this? Sign Soto to $650M/15 and Tanner Scott to $64M/4. Trade Yoshida (owed $56M/3) & Meidroth for Arenado (owed $59M/2) Trade Casas & Mayer for Gilbert Opening Day 26: SP: Gilbert, Houck, Bello, Crawford, Giolito RP: Scott, Slaten, Hendriks, Whitlock, Criswell, Guerrero, Wink, Wilson or Bernardino 1. Duran CF 2. Soto LF 3. Story SS 4. Devers 1B 5. Campbell 2B 6. Anthony RF 7. Abreu-Refsnyder DH 8. Arenado 3B 9. Wong C Bench: (Ref/Abreu,) Catcher, Rafaela, DHam or Grissom

They both have an 88 ERA- over the last 2 years, and Woo has more IP. It's a close call on value, IMO. Age & years of control make Woo the clear pick, to me.