moonslav59

Duran would have to bring back a really good, cost-controlled, 3+ year pitcher. We'd also have to have faith in Rafaela in CF, but I guess we could do this: LF: Soto CF: Anthony v RHPs and Rafaela v LHPs (maybe Campbell) RF: Abreu v RHPs and Anthony v LHPs

As does Abreu, for now, anyway. If there were more LHPs than RHPs, they both would have way less value. 2024 Sox vs LHPs: 1.180 O'Neil (GONE) .941 Refsnyder .879 Romy (might not make 26) .877 Wong (D is so bad, he may not play FT) .758 Casas (.817 in '23) .686 Devers (.739 career) .665 Duran (.749 in '23) .619 Grissom (.727 career) .603 Rafaela (has career reverse splits: .684 v R/.610 v L) .565 Yoshida (.746 in '23) .532 Abreu & DHam .472 Story (just 20 PAs) .296 Valdez

You make a good point. None of those listed, outside the top 5 look to be high leverage RP'ers, but as pen depth or low to moderate leverage RP'ers, having 16 decent or promising guys to fill 3 slots is the definition of depth. As with the vast majority of RP'ers in MLB, they are largely hit or miss. Of course, it's better to have 8 guys you can count on in moderate to high leverage situations, and then have another 5-7 like those on my list, but I do see some serious hopes in over 3 of the remaining 16. Winckowski: He is one of only 165 pitchers in MLB with over 150 IP from 2023. He places 27th in ERA-, a stat I have always valued pretty highly. He is much lower in other stats, but does have a 3.98 SIERA. He could be a decent 2-3 IP guy in our pen. Guerrero: He is listed above Hendriks on soxprospects.com, and his value is almost all speculative. They say, " He has some of the best raw stuff of any relief arm in the system." Penrod: I have not been as high on him as others, but he throws hard and could do well. Bernardino was looking like the gem in the rough we hoped Bloom would have found more of. He throws lefty and had a very nice 2023 season for us. (3.20 ERA in 51 IP. He had a .708 OPSA and was great on the road (.557.) This year, his H/A splits flipped (.939 away and .600 home.) In his first 30 IP of 2024, he had a 1.19 ERA and .564 OPSA. Those first 80 IP with the Sox were close to great. His last 21 IP seems to have taken away all the hope: 8.27 ERA and .971 OPSA. Justin Wilson (LHP) and Michael Fulmer both have histories of being really good, but they both have struggled or been hurt, lately. Fulmer might have the better shot at looking good in '25. Zach Kelly showed some signs of looking good, but had BB issues. Booser was likely a flash in the pan. To me, I think one of these guys has a good chance at being pretty good in '25: I Campbell, Weissert or Mata, but here is where we might have the best chance at finding a very good 6th man in the pen: If we add 2 SP'ers, it would be Crawford or Bello. If not, it could be Criswell, Fitts, Priester or Dobbins out of the AAA rotation. Hell, we could rob two from there. It might take some trial and error, and I'm not sure we can afford too many errors, before we settle on the 6-8th slot pen guys, but I think that won't be an issue. However, this assumes we add 2 quality pen arms or one plus two SP'ers, and relatively good health for the whole staff. Adding 2 quality SP'ers and 2 of the top 4 pen arms plus another good pen arm would be ideal, but if we sign Soto, I'm not sure how much will be left to spend on 4-5 quality arms. (We could trade for 1 or two, and probably would.)

Speaking of players that look to be pretty close to DH only, here is a look at Enmanual Valdez: Here is a guy that came up and via the Vaz trade with Abreu. He hit better than him through the high farm levels, and was indeed one of the best hitters in the minors over a 1-2 year stretch (2021-2022) and his .864 in 2023 with Woo. He started in the rookie league way back in 2016, at age 17. Skipping 2020, that is 8 years in pro ball. He turns 26 in about a week. He has 371 PAs in the bigs- spread out over two seasons. He's looked pretty good on offense, at times, but has also looked awful, at other times. .866 first 63 PAs of '23 .690 last 86 PAs of '23 .447 first 90 PAs of '24 .784 last 124 PAs of '24. If you take away that one really bad 86 PA stretch, his OPS would be pretty good. The biggest issue is his defense. It's atrocious, no matter where he plays. It has not improved, despite 8 years of pro ball. His offense has not been good enough to be a FT DH in MLB, but with a little improvement, maybe he could get there. On a team like the Sox, where does that leave his hopes? One could argue that DH suits Devers, Casas, Yoshida and Refsnyder best. He's not a better hitter than any of them, except Ref vs RHPs. He is worse than Abreu vs LHPs. (.327 OPS in 52 PAs v LHPs.) In some ways, he seem, like he is wasting a slot on the 40, and maybe he will be traded, this winter, but I think we have 4-5 players on the 40 with less hope than he has. Other teams may worry about his away splits: .812 at Fenway and .542 away. Gotta think this is a make or break year for EV.... maybe even a make or break ST'ing.

Unless 2024 was a fluke, Houck is one of MLB's best #2's, but I agree we need two top SP'ers. Burnes of Fried Trade for another. Houck becomes a top #3 SP'er. Bello, Crawford, Gio, Criswell, Priester and Fitts can fight over the last 2 slots. (After 2025, drop Gio from the fight.) Signing two also pushes Crawford, Bello or Gio to the pen as a solid long man. I'm all in. There is room for both of us on the front seat of this bandwagon.

Not a bad idea, but pen signings seem safer than SP'er ones, and we'd have to give up a lot to get Helsley. The Arenado & Helsley deal looks interesting, if money is not an issue, and that deal would allow Devers to move to 1B and greatly improve our D, but Holmes plus Hoffman would be cheaper than Arenado. Get STL to take Yoshida in the deal, and I'm all in. Tweak the Fitts, Cespedes for Arenado +$15M and Helsley plus a prospect. Another suggested trade is just Yoshida for Arenado, but getting Helsley would be a coup. Offer: Abreu, Fitts or Cespedes and Yoshida for Arenado & Helsely + $15M ( no STL prospect to BOS) (Note: COL is paying $5M x 2 years on Arenado's deal.) Casas & Devers at 1B & DH Arenado at 3B Story at SS Campbell or DHam at 2B That's a solid IF. Sign a defensive catcher and our D goes from worst to top 10. Yoshida might hit better than Arenado, but we add a RHB to replace Yoshida. This also allows Ref to play LF vs RHPs, and not DH. LF: Duran- Ref CF: Rafaela- Duran RF: Anthony (Campbell)

This is a point I have been making, too. Even if we add no RP'ers, this winter, which would be malpractice, our depth beyond the 8 on the big club is decent to maybe above league average. For once, pen depth looks to not be an issue. Top pen quality is. If we add two from Scott, Hoffman, Holmes and Esteves, I'd then say our pen depth might rate top 10 in MLB, maybe higher. Scott & Holmes would be a solid 1-2 punch. Slaten, Whitlock & Hendriks are fine 7th and 8th inning options. (If we add 2 SP'ers, as well, we can plug Crawford into the long man role) Criswell, Fitts, Winckowski can be the 2-3 inning guys in close games (1-2 will be in AAA.) Wilson or Bernardino will be the lefty Guerrero, Fulmer, Penrod, Kelly, Weissert, I Campbell, Mata, Booser, Shugart or AAA SP'ers like Dobbins, Fitts, Criswell or Priester could also fill a pen role, if we get this deep. I count 21 names, here for 8 slots. Maybe 3-4 are long shots and 3-4 will stay as SP'ers, but that should still come to 16 for 8 slots.

I think there are many very good young pitchers who have really good stuff. It's hard to pry one loose from a contending team, and those on rebuilding teams want a high price for one. We must try. If we can't get one, even with an overpay, I like the idea of trading for a higher priced, established SP'er who may be about to decline, but does not have a ton of years of control, costs less than a FA and won't take top prospects to get. Luis Castillo, Pablo Lopez, and others. I like Crochet, but I think even Abreu and Arias might be too much. Maybe add Kelly or Weissert.

You know how many pitchers have had periods where they show "pure stuff?" Nasty stuff? Unhittable stuff? Hell, DHern had one of MLB's best H/9 rates after 50 IP or so. It takes more than 2 games, or even one season to prove you have it. I'm not saying Crochet is not really good. Maybe he will be great. I'm just saying he has not proven it, yet, and giving up that much is a huge risk. Plus, it's only 2 years.

Trade for another SP'er. Crochet has never pitched over 65 IP, at any level, even college, until this year. Come on, man!

You've seen my unending trade suggestions, some for Crochet. I'm willing to give, and give a lot. What we get better be a good pitcher. I'm less sure about Crochet, and am more willing to trade for higher-prices pitchers like Castillo or Lopez. Even with an extension, I'm not sure Crochet is much better than Crawford and Bello. Better but not better by enough.

Sign Soto for $644/14 ($46M x 14) Sign Scott for $64M/4 ($16M x 4) Sign Holmes for $33M/3 ($11M x 3) Trade: Abreu (pre arb w 5 yrs,) Crawford ($3M arb 1 w 3 more arbs.) and Yoshida ($18.6M x 3) and $10M a year x 3 years. For:Pablo Lopez ($21.8M x 3) $18.4M AAV Tax and Ryan Jeffers ($5M 2nd arb+ 3rd arb for 2026.) Trade Cost: Sox pay $15M more for year 1. (Tax line: about $5M more) Total Tax Line cost: $78M (about $8M over the line)

I would not give just Casas and Abreu. Career per 162 games or 650 PAs: Casas .830 OPS (125 OPS+) with 31 HRs Abreu: .794 OPS (117 OPS+) with 20 HRs and GG type defense Crochet has just 2 years of control and has had just one ML or minor league season over 55 IP. (He had two seasons in college between 63 and 65 IP. To me, he is too much of an unknown to get such a big haul. I might give Abreu, Arias and Kelly. Maybe Cespedes, Arias and Fitts/Sandlin. I'd probably say no to Mayer for Crochet.

The projected .293 OBP seems very low (.665 OPS.)

They look to be average or a bit above average, now, and are still pre-prime. It's interesting to look at the SIERA rankings of Sox pitchers from 2023-2024. 150 SP'ers with 160+ IP (5 pitchers per 30 teams-150) 5. Pivetta 3.32 (Not sure why so many are down on this guy.) 58. Houck 3.96 (7th in GB% and 38th ERA-) 61. Winckowski 3.99 (23rd in ERA-) 14th in GB% 66. Crawford 4.03 (near bottom 10 in GB%) 74. Bello 4.15 (8th in GB%) All 5 are in the upper half in MLB. (Pivetta is a FA and Giolito is #81.) To me, "core" is not the same as All Star.

Exactly. For all we know, one team might be waiting until the last minute to blast in with a top offer that is higher enough to end any counter offer ideas. That could be the Dodgers. I doubt TOR blows everyone else away. I'm hoping the Dodgers will start thinking they've done enough for a while. The Yanks have a lot to lose by missing out on Soto, since there is nobody out there to replace his loss to their team. The Mets would love to steal some thunder from the Yanks. The NYC buzz would be enormous, but I'm not sure Cohen is still into wild spending, just for spending's sake. I think he has set a limit. I hate to be thinking like this, because I am SOOOO sick of letdowns, but I'm liking the Sox chances, the more I think about it. Reports suggest we are $70M below line one and $90M below line two. I'm thinking JH may just spend between those two amounts in winter AAV added to the budget. $70-90M add a huge chunk of talent to an already decent foundation.

He's too unknown for me to add to my must get Soto alternates, but he would be a nice score.

Once again, the health of Story will play a big role in how we set our infield, and how well our team does, particularly as related to defense. Assuming he plays 140+ games at SS, we have several options for shuffling our infield around to greatly improve our defense. Whether we can or do dump Yoshida need not interfere with step 1: move Devers to 1B or have him share 1B/DH duties with Casas. 1B: Devers & Casas SS: Story (Mayer as back-up, then Romy) That leaves 2B and 3B. If we do not add anyone else, there are a few choices: 2B: Campbell & 3B: Mayer (Grissom/ Meidroth) 2B: Campbell & 3B: Grissom 2B: DHam & Grissom platoon & 3B: Campbell or Mayer (Grissom/Meidroth) I like any of these choices better than running back the same IF as 2024, but with Story FT. Unlike Larry, I do not think this would be a major selling point to land top pitchers, but it would make us a better defensive team, without hurting the offense, IMO. I've suggested moving Devers to 1B and then offering Casas + Abreu in trade to find a cost-effective SP'er, but losing Casas would greatly hurt the offense. Even if we add Soto, I'd like to keep Casas. Soto all but guarantees an Abreu trade.

Here is another way to look at the situation, even if we assume JH is going to spend bi, this winter. Are the odds better that we win the Soto bidding war and then sign 1-2 other important players, or we miss out on Soto and then sign 3 or 4 from... Burnes and Fried Teoscar or (please no) Bregman Scott, Hoffman, Holmes and Estevez

I think we have several pitchers like him that we just have not seen pitch. Also, watching someone pitch one to two times is not enough to get a true read. Somedays, even the best of the best look awful. Again, I'm a quality over quantity kinda guy, but our quantity has some decent quality sprinkled in, here and there. We have close to 30 pitchers with some sort of highlight. If 1/6th make a decent jump, that's 5. If another 1/6th make some sort of gain, maybe we have 5 more. Another sixth or third might keep the hope alive for a jump in 2027. A jump from Priester (not a prospect, but I'm counting him) Fitts, Dobbins, Guerrero, or even Sandlin or Early could give us help by 2025 or 2026. It would be nice to have a few healthy Perales's, but it is what it is.

You are right. Abreu, Fitts and Kelly is too much to give. LOL. Maybe Abreu, Arias, Kelly & Wikelman....

I'm against Bregman, too. I'd be okay with Fried, Teoscar (trade Abreu & othrs for Crochet), Scott and Higgy/Jansen. (Maybe add Holmes.)

Both Cohen and JH could pay him a $Billion, if they wanted to. I'm sure they both have a high line they won't cross. This signing may mean more to JH and his personna than it does to Cohen or Steinbrenner. Maybe that is the deciding factor. All of these three owners might be content with just driving up the price and then swopping in on Burnes, Fried, Bregman or couple others.

If another team offers $650M/13, we should counter with $670M/14. If the league allows a 15 year offer, do it and bring down the AAV, as much as possible. That will matter, when JH goes through his next budget cutting period (or two and three over the next 15 seasons.)