moonslav59

I would like to see the "Win" rules be updated, and I guess we could go back and retroactively change awarded wins from the past, if we wanted to (unofficially.) I still think "wins" would still not capture who pitches better. Run support is a major factor in a pitcher getting a win or not, and that has nothing to do with his skills, and it never will, no matter what the rules are.

I was a box score nut, too. That was such a fun team to watch. Kids (Lynn, Rice, Evans, the gutsy Burly and Cooper, all under 25) and vets (Yaz, Rico, Fisk, Carbo & Doyle,) Tiant & Lee. While Wise, Cleveland, Pole, Moret, Drago and Burton did okay. We basically made it that far on 2 arms: Tiant & Lee- both with 260 IP. (Wise had 255.) We used only 12 pitchers in 1975 and only 10 with more than 7 IP (all over 48.) Tiant, Lee and Wise pitched an astounding 54% of all the team's IP in '75.

In reality, the best fits for the Sox on the FA market are Scott, Hoffman and maybe Yates or Estevez, but I'm not sure Brez is serious about any of them. Santander and Profar might fix the RHB issue, but also means trading away or GG RF'er, so Anthony is not blocked. Bregman fixes the 3B defense issue and halfway fixes the RHB issue, but Cora wants him at 2B, so I don't even want to let him screw that one up. Flaherty or Pivetta are attempts to upgrade the 4-5 slot in the rotation and not worth the cost. Alonso and a Casas trade for pitching might work. It fixes the RHB issue and improves the staff, but it ain't happening. I can't see any other FA options that move the needle, greatly. Did I miss anybody? Trades just weaken another area, even if just depth.

He fits the 1 year plan, very well.

Because there is nothing else left that we can get to improve the team. Bregman at .795 and plus defense would be a good addition, even if at a massive cost. Arenado at .725 and near GG defense would be a good addition and a reasonable cost, if my suggested trade, involving Rafaela and $10M a year paid by STL is accepted. He'd cost less than $10M AAV x 3 years. Despite his bat being in serious decline, and his age pretty much ruling out some great offensive resurgence, the big plus on 3B defense would help all our pitchers do better. We might even see 1B defense improve with Devers playing 80-90 games there. I can see why nobody gets a thrill out of either of these guys. Bregman was far down on my list of who to spend large and long on. Arenado may not really fix our RHB need, as he has sucked vs LHPs for 2 straight years. Maybe going after Santander or Profar, tehn trading Abreu and or Rafaela for pitching and or catching is a better idea. There really aren't many great ideas left, even if we do spend. (BIG IF, there!)

I'm back to giving up hope on us spending, and on top of that, I'm not thrilled with anything that's leftover. I'd say Scott, but no way we even make him an offer. JH has spent on Chapman and Hendriks, which is essentially over $20M for just one 2025's pen. (We could likely have gotten Scott for $16M AAV.) Another prime example of what you get for one and done's vs better players on longer deals.

Bregman is already past his "earlier productive years." .902 OPS '16-'20 (142 OPS+) .795 OPS '21-'24 (122 OPS+) Also .795 OPS from '20-'24 and .911 (144) '16-'19

Wow- 50 years! That season was what set me off on being such a rabid Sox fan. As a teen, I kept score of nearly every game- mostly by radio.

Great read! Thanks. One could say it's an accident we acquired Anthony as a comp pick, but when you get really good players and they bolt, comp picks are part of the equation. We seem to do much better with comp picks than our own, even if our own are higher picks. Here is a look back in time: the last 20 years.... 2005: 6 comp picks, but lost 3 for signing Renteria, Wells & Clement: added Ellsbury & Lowrie (Cabrera) That Nomat trade kept giving and giving (see Kopech) 2006: Daniel Bard (Damon) 2008: Stephen Fife (for not signing Hunter Morris) 2010: Workman (J Bay) 2011: Barnes (VMart) and JBJ & Swihart (A Beltre) 2012: B Johnson (Papelbon) 2014: Kopech (Ellsbury) 2022 Anthony (ERod), C Coffey( for not signing J Fabian, later flipped for DJansen) 2023: K Campbell (Bogey) and Reimer (Nate)

We had a lot of holes to fill after 2019. In large part to the cuts in spending, we had to spread the money out to fill all the needs with barely replacement level or better players. What gets me now is that I feel like we had a pretty deep roster- not great, but good enough. We did not need to fill 6-15 slots on the 40 and 5-8 on the 26, we really needed 3 key holes filled and maybe 2 minor ones. Major: Ace, Closer, RHB Minor: Catcher, more pitching We've been spending money, every year, usually barely replacing what goes out the door, each winter, if that, but spending $50M+ should get you 3 slots filled and maybe the 2 minor ones, too, but we keep spending the money on just 1, and more recently some 2 year deals. Hell, we even made the biggest trade since Sale and got only a 2 year guy. Not spending as much is huge. I've never argued against how much that sucks, and JH should be roasted for it. He did show some minor blips of going back to spending in cycles, but not near what he did, before, namely Story then Yoshida. We chose to spend: that's what gets me, It's how we spend it that irks the hell out of me, and it's not changing. I fully understand the lesson of David Price. Really, I get it, but when you need an ace, and you spend on Richards, Kluber, Wacha, Hill, Gio, Sandoval and Buehler, you are spending a lot of money, and getting nowhere fast. The money on new starting pitching has increased, pretty consistently since 2018, but the template remains the same: pillow contracts (Buehler & Wacha), aging once good/great pitchers (Kluber, Richards, Hill) or pitchers who were very good, but not recently (Giolito.) We never sign a really good SP'er with a durable history and recent success. Price was the last one. We traded for Sale and Nate (and Pom & Wright), and extended/re-signed both, but when it comes to adding new SP'ers, our failure is why we have sucked since 2018. We can argue about the Sale and Nate extensions, but here are the SP'ers we added via free agency and their cost: 2 year spending, not counting 2020, although it should count, as it was the year the team was blown to pieces. AAV Zero in 2018 & 2019 combined. (I'm not counting Nate as a FA- only newbies) $6^M in 2020 (Perez) $32M in '21 and '22 (10M Richards, $7M Wacha, $5M Perez, Hill and Paxton) $32M ($19.25M Gio, $10M Kluber, $5M Paxton, $1.25 Chase Anderson, $1M Criswell) $47.4M for 2025 alone ($20.05 Buehler, $18.25 Gio, $9.1M Sandoval) If you combine 2024 and 2025, you see a big jump, higher AAV per pitcher signed, but basically the same types of signings: 20.05 Buehler $38.5M/2 Golito 18.25M/2 Sandoval That's a lot of AAV money, that if spent on 1 or 2 longer term contracts would give us more projected stability, but we don't do that, anymore. $76.8M spend on 3 pitchers and maybe 4 years of control (if you count Sandoval as 1 year) That comes to $38M a year or about $26M per pitcher and year. We better hope we strike gold with Buehler or Sandoval, because we've lost the Lottery, every year. (The Wacha-Hill-Paxton year was a push, but Paxton's value was in the following season.)

Arenado at under $10M on this scenario, makes some sense, and for JH, that's 1/3 the cost of Bregman and 1/2 the years.

Maybe Arendao is still in play, since STL will pay enough to make him cheaper than Bregman. I'd love to pry Helsely into the deal, but they want too much or want to pay less for Arenado. Would Rafaela and Cespedes get us Arenado + $10M a year x 3 yrs? (Maybe add Fitts or Sandlin?) Arendao's AAV is $30.5M - $5M from COL= $25.5, then minus $10M fro STL=$15.5, then minus $6.3M for Rafaela= $9.2M ... Just cheap enough for JH. Hell, there I go hoping, again!

He is supposed to be healthy by Feb 1st, so I think we hand him the 5th slot, unless he stumbles in ST'ing. Crawford could really help eat innings in the pen and save the rest of the high leverage RP'ers from doing slop work. I'd still like to see a solid pen arm added and maybe a RHB- I'm thinking cheap now, all the way. Maybe the best we can hope for is Estevez, Kittredge or Sewald and Grichuk or Profar (Trade Abreu or Rafaela?) Sad, that we've reduced ourselves to hoping for scrubs.

I feel like I owe an apology to you, Fred, Randy and the many others that have been ruthlessly slamming out FO for years. I felt like you guys went overboard, but now I realize I was underboard.

Would they listen to Theo and let him spend?

We should not play Rafaela< Grissom or DHam at SS, unless for a quick fix, one game emergency. That leaves Romy or Campbell, but we may need Campbell at 2B. We could give all 3 of our top prospects a long look, this year, but I hope we wait until they all gain a service year. Who knows, maybe this will be a year like Lynn and Rice's 1975 season.

Ideally, it would be Bregman at 3B and Devers/Casas sharing the 1B/DH slots. Both could get all the rest they need while DH'ing and would not need more than a day or two off, all year, unless injured. That forces the $18M Man to the bench or LF (EEEK!) or trade for whatever money we can save. Apparently a few million matters to JH. Once Campbell or Anthony start making a statement, we can then trade Rafaela and or Abreu plus DHam or Romy/Grissom to fill other needs, and maybe we can cobble together a truly competitive team. I see no hint that are serious about AB or any other of the remaining handful of significant FAs left who fit our needs.

Yup. Well, one main reason to try and dump most of Yoshida's contract was to save a few dollars and maybe stay under the tax line. That's not an issue, this winter, so we might as well give him a shot to get healthy and increase his trade value (or value to us.) We aren't winning, this year, so I'd rather keep Campbell and Anthony in AAA, at least until another year of service is gained... maybe even 2, if we wait until 2026 has started. None of our big 3 prospects need to be added to the 40, this year. To me, we are wasting one of Crochet's 2 years of control. Why trade 3 top 8 prospects for a 2 year player, if we plan on continuing the rebuild? There is no cohesive plan with these guys. It all seems knee-jerk and reactionary with no proactive actions. What's left on the plate, this winter? No great fits, and the ones that might be (Scott or Hoffman,) I doubt we are even considering making an offer. I guess a Bregman signing might get my pulse back up, but he was never high on my list. To top it off, these clowns were talking about signing Alex to play 2B NOT 3B! The absurdity never ends with these guys.

Indeed, and this on top of statements about the tax line not being an issue. It just gets worse on the BS. My point was that we do some replacement spending, but these short term and "pillow" deals are tiring me out. I'd rather we spend $26M on 2 guys for 5-6 years than $2-$10M on several one and dones. OK, we finally spent over $20M on an AAV (Bluehler at $21M and 1 year, of course,) the only one, except Story since who? JD? (Nate was technically a FA signing, but I count him as an extension, and not new blood.)

We will need Campbell and or Anthony to make a significant impact. We also have almost all of our players in pre-prime mode, so we could expect improvement from returning players. The return of Story and Casas (also Devers & Yoshida) to possible full seasons could make a difference, but someone is bound to get hurt. Nobody is post prime on O, except our short-side. platoon DH: Ref at 33. Prime: 31 Yoshida, 28 Wong Just entering Prime: 27 Devers, Duran, Romy Pre-Prime: 24 Casas, 25 Abreu, 23 Rafaela & Grissom, 26 DHam It would be nice to have a big power RHB, but we might end up better than 2024, despite losing O'Neill. Maybe this is the line-up by mid-season: 1. L Duran L (LF) 2. R Campbell (2B) 3. L Casas (1B) 4. L Devers (3B) 5. R Story (SS) 6. L Abreu RF/L Anthony RF 7. L Anthony CF/ R Rafaela CF 8. L Yoshida/ R Refsnyder DH 9. R Wong/ R Narvaez C This could work out very well! (Or not.)

I'd really like to know, for sure, if every FA were lost out on was because JH & Co said no, or if Brez just decided no, on his won, on one or two. My guess is JH has ended all of them, but maybe not. The years thing is also something that may be an issue, but Brez did spend over $52M this winter ($21M Buehler, $10.75M/1 Chapman, $18.25M/2 Sandoval, $2.25M Wilson.) It's $62M if you count Hendriks from last year. Only Sandoval is on the books for 2026, so the AAV for 2025 is $43M w/o Hendriks or $48M counting him.

So, nobody holds the HR record, because MLB is far from over. I'm not saying we won anything. I even pointed out we can be passed, but as of now, we hold the record.

Here is a look at our top fWAR players by season since 2020, and how acquired: (No label= drafted or IFA) 1.3 fWAR + listed 6.7 Duran '24, 6.0 Bogey '22, 5.0 Devers '22, 4.2 Devers '21, 4.1 Bogey '21, 4.1 Devers '24, 3.9 Houck '24, 3.4 Devers '23, 3.1 Abreu '24, 2.5 Duran '23, 2.4 Crawford '23, 2.3 Houck '21, 2.0 Bello '24, 1.9 Crawford '24, 1.7 Vaz, '22 & Casas '23, 1.6 Bogey '20 & Bello '23, , 1.5 JBJ '20, 1.3 Vaz '20, Bello '22, Houck '23 & Barnes '21 FA: 5.7 Nate '21, 3.7 Kike '21, 2.7 JD '21, 2.6 Renfroe '21, 2.5 Story '22, 1.8 Hill '22, Martin '23 & Wacha '22 & Duvall '23, 1.4 Jansen '24 & JD '22 Waivers: 1.8 Schreiber '22 Rule 5: 1.6 Whitlock '21, 1.4 Whitlock '22 Trade: 3.9 ERod '21, 2.5 O'Neill '24, 2.3 Pivetta 2.1 Sale '23, 2.0 Pivetta '24, '21, 1.9 Pivetta '23 & Verdugo, '21, 1.7 DHam '24, 1.6 Verdugo '20, 1.5 Pivetta '22, 1.5 Slaten '24, 1.4 Verdugo '23, 1.3 McGuire '22 That FA group is pretty freaking bad, when you total all the money spent on FAs.

I doubt Burnes was ever a "plan." Fried might have been, until the bidding went out of JH's range.

Agreed, and Campbell can play 3B, so no biggie, but he was a deserving #8 prospect.