moonslav59

Agreed, and the sham went so deep and on so many levels. I think the sham went back many years, at different levels from extreme to kinda mild. Part of me thinks the plan was for a long and slow rebuild, while trying to stay semi-competitive, or at least give the perception were were from 2019 onwards. One could argue that time is up, and the final rebuild step, which to me is to add key pieces from outside the organization to get as close to glory as possible, is upon us. Now, I need to pinch myself or smack myself upside my noggin'.

You guys crack me up!

It just seemed like the team was snake-bitten starting in 2019. Injuries, unexplained major decline years, here and there. So many of our biggest signings and extension players getting hurt, underperforming or both. The ALE getting very strong, then just when they really balance the schedule more than ever, the ALE was not as good. Things like that pile up. Then, the back-breaker Sale trade.

Equally important is that Brez chooses wisely or has good luck. (Do you think Gio was Brez's top 3 pick?)

Pivetta has had several 12-18 start stretches over his career, where he looks like a solid #2/3 SP'er, but yes, he has never put together a full solid season as a SP'er. I just get a sneaky feeling he will turn down the QO and have that season, elsewhere.

I'd rather sign the young guy Sasaki over Buehler, as "the second guy." We also have to think Pivetta may force himself into being the "second guy," if he takes the QO. We aren't adding two big SP'ers, if Pivetta is returning.

Kinda/sorta/yes, but as you know, I'm "tired" of relying on comebacks. Buehler is 30. He has not had a great year since 2021. He had another great year in 2019. I'm not sure those two seasons, 4 and 6 years ago makes him a better bet than Kluber and Paxton were. Richards was 33 when we got him, so throw him out, and he had gone 6 years without a great season, when we gave him a shot. Kluber was a two time Cy Young winner and top 3 four times. Yes, he was 37, when we signed him, but had made 31 starts the year before and did okay. He was 5 years removed from his last great season, so I do agree Walker B looks like a better upside choice than Kluber was. Paxton was never as great as Kluber or Buehler but had decent year just 4, 5 and 6 years prior ('17-'19) He was 33, when we added him, but 34 when he pitched for us. 4 and 6 years ago is a long time ago. Buehler's last 3 years: 28 GS (about 9 per season) 4.74 ERA (83 ERA+) 4.74 FIP 1.43 WHIP 7.8 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 These numbers are not much better than the guys I mentioned were, when we signed them.

He's not getting younger, either, but DH'ing mostly could help. I think adjusting to the new culture and game could offer reason to think he could do better, but I just don't see how we can expect any better than what he gave us in 2023-2024, but maybe at more PAs. He does have a 3.2 bWAR, career, which does come to about a 2.0 for 650 PAs. fWAR really slams DHs. He has a career 111 OPS+ which is a plus for a DH, but not great. He has value, but just falls way short of the $18M a year he gets. I think we hold onto him, until he gets healthy and a top prospect is busting down the door. None of our top prospects need to be added to the 40, and they won't be added until they are going to the 26 as a FT or very near FT player. There simply is not enough slots in the line-up for 4, right now. Even 3 is pushing it, and the catcher position might be the one slot, where our top prospect, Teel, is the least ML ready of the top 4-5 prospects at AAA (including Meidroth.) To me, if Campbell, Mayer and Anthony are on the 26, Yoshida and Abreu will be traded, and whoever is playing 2B will be utility. Even this configuration squeezes the middle IF or moves Campbell to the OF or DH (3B, if we move Devers to 1B and Casas to DH, as I would like.) This would be my ideal alignment (with Abreu traded): C: Jansen or Higgy/Wong (Teel in '26) 1B: Devers (Casas back-up) 2B: Mayer (until Story moves here) SS: Story 3B: Campbell (Devers back-up) LF: Duran/Ref CF: Rafaela/Duran RF: Anthony DH: Casas (Ref back-up) Utility: Grissom, DHam, Wong, (Ref or Rafaela, whoever is not starting)

He seems like another Richards-Paxton-Kluber type signing, where most of us were okay with, as long as it wasn't the centerpiece of improving the rotation. Yes, he and Fried would be fine, but not him alone.

Nice post. I will add that there are a few trade targets that have 3-5 years of control, and may not need extensions, right now. There are also trade targets like Pablo Lopez and Luis Castillo that would not be extended, but come at a moderate pay level that is cheaper than a FA cost for equal projected production. IMO, we have a ton of young talent and should do a deep dive evaluation to determine which one we can and should trade that makes the least impact on our longer term outlook. This also involves looking at bottle-necked positions and where Campbell fits best, position-wise. The question of Story's health is too hard to predict, so I think we need to plan around zero games from him, but have the flex to be able to play Mayer & Campbell FT, so maybe it makes sense to trade one. (We also have Grissom & DHam, who I think makes a good 2B platoon, and Arias, Romero and other middle IF'er should be ML ready before Story departs.) Making a trade for a young and controlled pitcher would allow more budget space for a big signing, like Soto or Fried/Burnes, or to spread it out between 3-4 really good but not great signings plus Scott. Kinda rambled there, sorry.

I think we will make a trade or DFA someone before the Rule 5 addition deadline. I think Gasper is #1, as we will likely add a catcher, later. He will probably not be claimed, but one never knows. He hit very well, on the farm, last year. My list, in order, of DFA candidates: 1. Gasper 2. Sogard 3. Shugart 4. Horn Murphy, Wikelman, Booser and Bernardino are borderline trade/DFA. I also am pretty certain Abreu gets traded, at some point, and maybe fellow LHB'er DHam, too. We will need space for FA additions, as well, and between all the players listed above, I don't really see any major roster crunch issues. We could add 3-4 Rule 5 guys and 3-4 FA signings and lose nobody of great significance, IMO.

We need a RHB, not Raley, but an interesting suggested trade.

College Football Playoff Rankings: 1. Oregon 10-0 2. Ohio St 8-1 3. Texas 8-1 4. Penn St 8-1 5. Indiana 10-0 6. BYU 9-0 7. Tennessee 8-1 8. Notre Dame 8-1 9. Miama 9-1 10. Alabama 7-2 11. Ole Miss 8-2 12. Georgia 7-2 13. Boise St 8-1, 14. SMU 8-1, 15. Texas A&M 7-2, 17. K St 7-2, 18. COL 7-2 18. WSH St 8-1, 19. Louisville 6-3, 20, Clem 7-2, 21. So Car 6-3, 22. LSU 6-3 23. MO 7-2, 24. Army 9-0, 25. Tulane 8-2 Big games remaining: TN at GA, IN at OHIO St, Army at ND, AL at OK, ND at USC, Navy at Army

My 5 predictions (not my wish list) 1. We sign Tanner Scott at $50M/3. (Closer: check/ LHP: check) 2. We sign Jack Flaherty at $70M/3. (No QO draft pick loss) 3. We sign Clay Holmes at $20M/2. 4. We sign Danny Jansen at 8M/1 with $6M option for 2026 and $1M buyout. (Bridge to Teel) 5. We trade Abreu for Jhoan Duran. (Beef up the pen and make room for Anthony)

I'll fall out of my chair, if we sign Soto. I'll be thrilled, if we sign just Fried and Scott and nobody else. (Assuming we still trade Abreu and DHam for a RP'er and 1 year catcher.)

I can see both sides. Actually, if Soto is paid for 12-14 years, yes you get his prime years but also the backside and the rear side of the backside, too. The total cost may be cheaper for Burnes + Fried than what Soto gets total. The AAV might be about equal, except that the Burnes+Fried deals would expire in 6-7 year, not 12-14, like Sotos might.

Knowing our luck, we sign Fried, Pivetta signs with ATL and wins the Cy Young in '25. I can just imagine all the posters saying how dumb Brez was.

I tried to get some BTV numbers for possible trades and found this: Red Sox Values: 65.2 Anthony, 64.9 Mayer, 38.6 Campbell, 30.3 Abreu, 24.0 Crawford, 18.7 Casas, 15 Montgomery, 11.5 DHam, 13.3 Bleis, 10.5 Arias, 8.9 Cespedes, 7.4 Criswell, 5.4 Wink, 4.2 Romero Targets: MIN: 37.4 Pablo Lopez, 33.3 Joe Ryan, 31.0 Jhoan Duran, 24.0 Ober SEA: 111.4 Kirby, 65.6 Gilbert, 57.6 Miller, 50.5 Woo, -30.6 L Castillo CWS: 42.2 Crochet, 12.2 L Robert DET: 79.7 Skubal MIA: 20.6 Alcantara, 11.5 Luzardo I'm still for Abreu & DHam for Lopez, Ryan, Crochet or Alcantara + Luzardo. Mayer for Gilbert, Miller or Woo. Mayer + Abreu for Skubal? How about Mayer, Abreu & Crawford for Kirby?

Seems like KC and DET are beatable, but they both keep pulling out wins. Top records: NFC: 8-1 DET, 7-2 PHI & MN, 7-3 WSH, 6-3 GB, 6-4 AZ & ATL, 5-4 SF AFC: 9-0 KC, 8-2 BUF, 7-2 PIT, 7-3 BAL, 6-3 LAC, 6-4 TEX

I tend to agree with this sort of thinking, but I do think Soto is a once in a decade type of hitter that becomes a FA. He's better than Manny. I do think I'd rather have Burnes + Fried than Soto.

QO Pitchers: Burnes, Fried, Manaea, Martinez, Pivetta & Severino. You wonder, if we avoid some on this list due to losing a draft pick.

I remember arguing with 700 that including Price was a big negative impact on the return. 700 thought he was a plus at half price. I also agree with notin that we pivoted to Sale & Bogey once JH decided Betts was not returning at a cost more than he allowed. It was a done deal with or without Price.

I think he has more value than some think, but maybe the $7M/yr on BTV is a bit high. I'd guess $4-6M when healthy, and $6-9M, maybe more, if he can hit over .780 for a while and get reestablished. I do not think dumping him for $3M a year savings is worth it, as of now, even if JH promised to use every cent of the savings on someone else.

I did mean it the way you took it, but also in a more general sense, as well.

He has to realize he could be a flash in the pan. 2 years is a long way away, and he could lose value. Many players extend with 2 years to go before free agency. (I'm not high on Crochet.)