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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    I thought maybe he could be had for a 4 year deal between $76-80M.
  2. moonslav59
    LOL. I doubt even TH and Hoffman could happen.
  3. moonslav59
    Not sure what we'd have to add. I think I heard they want to start playing Raleigh less and less at catcher.
  4. moonslav59
    I would not consider moving Bello from the rotation. He's my 3 or 4, depending on Buehler. I have KC going to the pen with Gio as the #5. I'm fine, if you don't like numbering the rotation. It does not really matter in many senses, but it seemed to me, like it does matter to you. No biggie. MVP is not a big Bello fan. There are reasons not to. I really like Bello's chances of breaking out, in 2025.
  5. moonslav59
    I wonder, if that deal offer is true, how much money we offered to offset Yoshi. I'm thinking maybe we need to offer $12-14M x 3 to get close to a yes.
  6. moonslav59
    Sox sign Noah Davis to minors
  7. moonslav59
    You did "care" where someone ranked Bello, and you mentioned in the same post that you felt he could be our #1. I'm not sure why you argue with the guy who agreed with you on Bello, while saying you don't care about rankings but go on and on about them.
  8. moonslav59
    So, do you or do you not give a "rats ass" about who does better? I really like Bello and place him as our 3 or 4 slot SP'er, as of now. I think he can and will get better as he matures. You started this whole thing by saying Bello may end up the best SP of the group, and I agree. He can. We do not have anyone proven to be a sure bet ace, but you have to expect some push back on how our SP'ers are slotted, on paper, as of now- based on what we have seen from all of them.
  9. moonslav59
    Even if you take away 2024, his history was better, although doubts about 150+ IP were present.
  10. moonslav59
    13 is too many? (The ones in parenthesis are in AAA . I listed Crawford as the 6th starter and in the pen.) Do you think the STL offer was fair?
  11. moonslav59
    Houck was "awesome" from 2020-2022. For a young RP/SP who struggled in the 5th IP as his only weak point, other than injuries, he was damn good. His history blows Bello's away. With him, it's all about staying healthy and proving he can go 175+ IP back-to-back. Bello has to prove he can even pitch 75% as well as Houck does. Bello has also never pitched 178 IP, like Houck has. His tops is 162. Counting the minors: Bello: 118 IP in 2019, 95 in '21, 96 in '22, 153 in '23 (minors+ majors), 162 in '23 (AAA+MLB) and 165 in '24 (AA+MLB) Houck: 300 IP in 3 college seasons ('15-'17), then 22, 119, 108, 90 in '21 (AAA+MLB,) 60 in '22 (almost all as RP,) 115 in '23 (AAA+MLB) and 179 in '24 I don't see an IP advantage to Bello.
  12. moonslav59
    According to cots, we are under the tax line by $36M. Could this work? Sign: Teoscar Hernandez $76M/4 ($19M AAV) Lower AAV but extra year. Trade: Rafaela ($6.2 AAV x 7 years,) DHam, Cespedes, Sandlin and Fitts For: Arenado ($25.5 AAV after COL payments) and Helsley ($6.8 est final arb) + $10M x 3 years ($30M) We come in $1M under the tax line. 1. Duran CF 2. Teoscar LF 3. Casas DH/1B 4. Devers 1B/DH 5. Arenado 3B 6. Abreu RF (Anthony, eventually) 7. Story SS 8. Campbell 2B 9. Wong-Narvaez C Bench: Narvaez, Grissom, Refsnyder, Yoshida (Romy, Anthony, Mayer) SP: Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Bello, Giolito (Crawford) RP: Helsley, Chapman, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Crawford, Winckowski, Wilson (Guerrero)
  13. moonslav59
    He does have one good thing going for him, over others: 2nd half of 2024 ERA: 3.47 Bello (1.225 WHIP was second to Nick) 3.48 Criswell (1.452) 4.20 Pivetta (1.150 was best) 4.23 Houck (1.36) 6.59 Crawford (1.249)
  14. moonslav59
    Houck was awesome over his first 3 seasons with the Sox, despite missing some time in 2021 and 2022. His only bas year was 2023. Injuries are a concern with him, but I'm encouraged by his full 2024 season as a starter. 2020-2022: 150 ERA+, 3.02 ERA/2.95 FIP (His 69 ERA- ranked 30th out of 234 pitchers with 140+ IP.) He's been hurt, but he's only had one bad year. I like Bello, a lot, but he has yet to prove he can come close to what Houck had already done in all but one season. Crochet has major questions about his ability to pitch 150+ IP for the next 2 years, let alone 170 or 180. No doubt, that is a concern, but when you look at what our SP'ers have done, especially most recently, it seems totally logical to slot Crochet and Houck 1-2, knowing full well, MLB is fluid. Bello could be poised for a great year, or he could continue to decline, as he did in 2024. Buehler is the big wild card, in terms of range of projected 2025 production. Gio has not done much in 3 years. I can see slotting him 5th or even 6th.
  15. moonslav59
    Indeed, Bello could easily be our #3. Gio, Buehler and Crawford all have serious questions, but so does Bello. He needs to show his 2024 decline was just a blip. ERA 4.24>4.49 (ERA+ 107>95) WHIP 1.338> 1.361 K/BB 2.9>2.4 2024 Rankings: ERA+ 137 Houck, 105 Criswell, 103 Pivetta & Wink, 98 Crawford, 95 Bello FIP: 3.32 Houck, 4.07 Pivetta, 4.15 Criswell, 4.19 Bello, 4.48 Wink, 4.65 Crawford K/BB: 4.8 Pivetta, 3.4 Crawford, 3.2 Houck, 2.4 Criswell & Bello, 2.3 Wink Certainly, Bello can improve, but in no way should he be called our 3rd SP. 4th or 5th sounds about right. Crochet and Houck are clear 1 & 2. Buehler has the potential to be our 1-2 and could be viewed as our #3, on paper, right now, but there are many questions. Giolito was one of MLB's top 10 pitchers from 2019-2021, but that seems like so far away. He showed some hope over the first half of 2023, but one half of a good season out of 6 halves is not good, at all. I'm fine with putting Bello 4 and Gio or Crawford 5th and 6th.
  16. moonslav59
    We need all the help in the pen we can get. Crawford can eat a lot of innings there and spot start, when needed, thereby prolonging the need to call anyone up Wink and Whitlock (eventually) can go 2-3 IP, every few days. IMO, we still need a bonafide closer, badly. Making Hendriks & CHapman the set-up men looks pretty good, on paper. Slaten has the potential to be the third solid set-up man or 7th inning guy. The whole pen and pen depth gets much better, if we add a solid closer. That being said, I seriously doubt it happens.
  17. moonslav59
    Something we could have used. ERA+/IP 2006: 142/241 (Led league) The Sox had 1 SP'er w an ERA+ over 103 (40 starts from scrubs) 2007: 109/211 The Sox had just 2 SP'ers over 108 (Beckett & Schill) Tavarez had 23 GS at 92 ERA+ 2008: 92/200 Buchholz had a 69 ERA+ and the 5th most GS 2009: 110/220 The Sox had 2 SP'ers over 111 (Beckett & Lester) Penny 83, Dice K 81, Smoltz 56 (44 GS total) 2010: 105/216 Buch led the majors at 187 and Lester was at 134, but the next 5 were below 100.
  18. moonslav59
    He's already way better than Wong on D- not a hard thing to do, but reports say he is a plus-plus catcher on D. Compared to Wong in the minors: Wong: .276/.337/.496/.832 (AAA .327 OBP/.471 SLG w 23 HRs & 138 Ks in 563 PAs) Narvaez: .250/.364/.382/.746 (AAA: .371 OBP/.400 SLG w 21 HRs & 196 Ks in 762 PAs) Narvaez: Way better D, better OBP Wong: better SLG Pretty close on K rate and HRs in AAA.
  19. moonslav59
    Throw in DHam and call it a deal.
  20. moonslav59
    Crawford/Bello as our 6th starter is the best we've had since maybe 2018, after the Nate trade, but Pom-Pom was having an awful year. Criswell may be the best 7th starter in along time, and the Fitts-Priester-Fulmer trio (plus Dobbins) offer us a decent pool to choose the best from, if needed. I would still love to see us get a #1-2 type and push everyone else down another notch, but that is a pipedream. I doubt we even add a solid RP'er. I think our sights are set on Bregman or Teoscar and maybe a back-up catcher by trade.
  21. moonslav59
    G Torres to DET for $15M/1. Maybe they drop out of the Bregman auction.
  22. moonslav59
    Welcome back!
  23. moonslav59
    Narvaez would be the #2. They would be depth. Narvaez is really good on D. His bat is a major concern, but he did show 20 HR power and a nice OBP in the monirs. My guess is we'll add a catcher or two on minor league deals and maybe make one more slash with a RHB. notin suggested a trade for Sean Murphy that would check both boxes, but leave us counting on Mayer and Romy at SS.
  24. moonslav59
    Although the Nate signing in 2019 was technically a FA signing, we went a pretty long stretch between JD's $110M/5 signing in 2018 and Story's signing in March of 2022 with no major new FA signings. After Story, we have seen some moderate signings, but nothing bigger than Story's or Yoshida's. $140M/6 Story '22 $90M/5 Yoshida '23 Big drop off... (just 9 deals from $10M to $89M in 4 years) $38.5M/2 Giolito '24 $32M/2 Jansen '23 $21.7M/2 Turner '23 (opted out for $15M/1) $21M/1 Buehler '25 $18.3M/2 Sandoval '25 $17.5M/2 Martin '23 $10.1M/1 Chapman '25 $10M/1 Kluber '23 $10M/2 Hendriks '24 Lower Tier: $8M/2 Diekman '22 $7M/1 Duvall '23 and Wacha '22 $5M/1 Hill '22
  25. moonslav59
    Good and comprehensive read. Pedey was a great one.
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