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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    My suggestion is based on him rejecting any contract without an opt out. Why is that so hard to fathom. He may very well do just that. We could offer him more than Fried, including the arb buy-out years, and he could say no. If he insists on an early opt-out, you guys just walk away? Geesh, I though Bloom was bad.
  2. moonslav59
    I want to extend him for 6-8 years with no opt opts. He will likely want near $30M for the non arb years part of the deal. If he says no and will not sign any extension without an opt out, why would I say No, just walk after 2. We don't want a third year. I'm not sure why this is complicated. He's getting $3.8M this year on the agreement pre-arb and might get $14-20M, next year. Let's say he's make $20M total for 2025-2026, and then gets $30M x 6 for the next years of a deal. $180M/6. If the extension started this year, the toal 8 years would be $200M/8 guaranteed. If he says no, the only deal I'll take is $4M, $16M and $30M from 2027-2032, but with an opt out after 2027- take it or leave it. I'd take it and get 3 years NOT 2. You would say no? Bye-bye after 2 years, and get a comp pick, maybe. One way to try to convince him to take a longer deal or put off the opt out until year 5 or 6, is to front end load it. Give him the cash, now. $10M 2025 $20M 2026 $25M 2027 ($55M/3 vs $50M/3 on my first offer) $25M 2028 ($80M/4 vs $80M/4) $30M 2029, then opt out. Some take this to get paid more, upfront. It's the opposite of deferring money, which devalues a contract. He will likely say no. So, my question is, you will refuse any opt-out contract after 2027, even if it means no extension will ever be made?
  3. moonslav59
    We were top 4 in scoring in many non ring years. It's when we do well in pitching that tips the scales. ERA- by season in MLB since 2004 rankings 4th in 2004 1st in 2007 6th in 2013 2nd in 2018
  4. moonslav59
    I disagree. I'd love top 3, but we can win it all by being top 8-10 in batting, middle 10 on defense and top 3 in SP and maybe top 10 in the pen (yeah right) and we may have a good chance.
  5. moonslav59
    True, and it still means he struggled vs LHPs in 2023, despite close splits, that year. I'm concerned, but it's not like he's struggled every year. Some players just have off year splits. He was hurt, a lot, too, and the sample sizes were not big.
  6. moonslav59
    Of course we want more, but if Crochet says take it or leave it, I try to get at least one more year. It was like the Bogey deal: we all hated the opt out after 3 years, but it gave us one more year, and we only paid him $20M x 3. It was better than him walking after 2 years.
  7. moonslav59
    You gotta give him something to make him sign a contract extension, when he is looking at what much older pitchers are getting, now, on 6-8 year deals. Of course, I want no opt outs. I said that clearly, but if he says no opt-out- no deal, I look for ways to add at least 1-2 more years to our control rather than see him walk after 2026. Yes, I'd guarantee him $200M, if he does not opt out. I don't give him $200M in the first 3 years. It's not an opt out after 2025, it's an opt out after the one year of added control (after 2027.) Corrao signed a 6 year deal with an opt-out after 2 years. Crochet's would be after 3 years, if the extension began in 2025. It would be an opt out after 2 years, if the extension began in 2026 or one year if it began in 2027. Sorry, if I confused you and MVP, but I did say I'd rather get one more year of control than none.
  8. moonslav59
    I was very clear. He has 2 years of control, now. I said I'd rather give him an opt out after 2027 than see him walk after his year two arb in 2026. Nothing I said even hinted at letting him walk after 2025 or 2026.
  9. moonslav59
    My 10 pre-season predictions: 1. We sign no big FA. 2. We sign Carlos Estevez. 3. We trade Abreu to HOU for Luis Garcia & Victor Caratini 4. We start all 3 top prospects in AAA and wait for the extra year of control to kick in. 5. DHam and Grissom start the season as our 2B platoon. 6. Yoshida and Refsnyder start the season as our DH platoon. 7. Whitlock starts the year on the 15 Day IL. 8. Sandoval is placed on the 60 Day IL on opening day. 9. I Campbell is added back to the 40 man, after a nice ST'ing, but starts the year in AAA. 10. Kennedy, Brez & Co continue talking how they made us more competitive and spending more was not an issue.
  10. moonslav59
    Maton has been pretty good and turns 32 by opening day. He'd be a nice signing, but I'd prefer a closer, if we are just adding one more pen arm. 1.16 WHIP over the last 3 seasons 3.50 ERA (115 ERA+) 9.5 K/9 to 3.4 BB/9 Averaged about 65 IP per year.
  11. moonslav59
    Huh? I said, I'd give him an opt out after 2027, rather than no extension, at all. Of course, I'd rather get him to sign for more guaranteed years, but he may insist on an opt out after '27 or '28. I was very clear about that.
  12. moonslav59
    Mayer's struggles vs LHPs were for real in 2024, but not so much before that year.... 2024: .896 v R/.674 v L 2023: .746/.704 2022: .884/.904 2021: .786/.887
  13. moonslav59
    I have a 2B platoon and a LF/DH platoon, so Ref (LF or DH) and Romy (or Grissom- I'm not tied to either) and Abreu (RF) or Yoshida (DH) are on the long-side platoon. I'm not sure any are "ahead" of the others. All have a starter role beyond being a sub, when not starting. The other slots go to Narvaez (C) and whoever loses out on the 2B platoon w DHam: Grissom or Romy. My roster is listed above. Ref is on my 26 and is not #26 or #25, as Grissom and Romy are below him and sort of duplicated values. If Grissom wins the 2B job, outright, as some suggest he might or will, and there is no platoon, I'd keep Ref over DHam, as well. Until Campbell wins the 2B job, I like DHam more than Grissom & Romy, and he's needed at 2B, whereas I guess Ref is not technically need as a platoon. I do NOT want Abreu starting vs LHPs with a .514 OPS. Ref is essential for that, where as DHam is only "essential," if he turns out to be our best 2Bman, until KC arrives.
  14. moonslav59
    I think our offense is fine, despite the unbalanced L-R thing. We have depth and the 3 top prospects, so if something does not go right, we have other options, which could end up better than the starter. I worry most about our pen, catcher defense and something that won't be fixed in 2025: corner IF defense. We may do something to balance the line-up, but I hope we don't get someone worse than Abreu just for balancing purposes.
  15. moonslav59
    I'd give him that over nothing but 2 arb years and a bolt, yes.
  16. moonslav59
    I totally agree, but what if Crochet says no to any extension without an opt out after "27 or '28? We just give up on adding 1 or 2 years out of spite?
  17. moonslav59
    I guess Wong could play 1B, in a pinch, but Romy is the only one from DHam and Grissom that can. He's also a better defender than those two at SS. I'm not loving on Romy as much as I've soured on Grissom. DHam is fine on defense at 2B and hits RHPs, pretty well. His speed gives him the edge, to me, as #26.
  18. moonslav59
    The problem might be that Crochet won't accept any extension without an opt-out after 2027 or 2028. He'd be smart to insist on it, the way prices are going up. If he has a great 3-4 years, he can make way more: if not he just does not opt out. Maybe you try to structure the deal where years 4, 5 and 6 are at $32-35M a year, so he'd have to do real good to opt out, but at his age, he may opt out, anyway. Of course we all want 5-7 years with no opt out, and maybe it's worth paying way extra for that, but them what if he gets hurt, all the time, or underperforms. I guess an opt out would be any different in the latter case. Just get it done! You have to add at least 2 guaranteed years to save some face and 3+ to be okay.
  19. moonslav59
    I'm not sure we need "everything" to go right, as we seemed to need in past years, but we do need a lot to go right. I think our depth offers a better shot at being competitive, if a couple guys go sour or get hurt, and remember, last year Criswell was "depth," and some viewed Houck as the 6th starter. DHam was an afterthought and maybe the 3rd or 4th guy we tried at 2B, after grissom, E Valdez and Reyes. Rafaela was a big unknown and finished 3rd on the team in PAs. Some did not view Abreu as a serious RF option, and one poster talked about how bad it was "watching him kick the ball around RF." Ref had another solid year vs LHPs and even the midseason pick-up of D Smith helped ease the major 1B issues we had. Jansen did fine replacing McGuire, too. I Campbell, Joely, Chase Anderson and Weissert began the season in the pen. Zack Kelly had more IP than all but Weissert. About 6 others had more IP than Joely and 8 more than I Campbell.
  20. moonslav59
    Slaten is listed twice. I think he meant Winckowski for the other slot.
  21. moonslav59
    I think Campbell & Anthony begin the season in AAA, unless there is an injury. This what I think Brez & Cora select for the 26: 1. Duran LF/CF 2. Devers 3B 3. Story SS 4. Casas 1B 5. Yoshida DH 6. Abreu RF v R/ Refsnyder LF v L 7. DHam v R/ Grissom platoon 2B 8. Wong- Narvaez 9. Rafaela CF/RF Utility: Romy SP: Crochet, Houck, Bello, Buehler, Giolito, Crawford RP: Chapman, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock (if not on IL) Winckowski, Wilson, Guerrero
  22. moonslav59
    He has no options remaining, too.
  23. moonslav59
    Refsnyder will be on the 26, probably instead of Grissom or DHam, since Romy can play 1B and OF. No mention of Ref, at all. He's a top 12 batter in MLB vs LHPs on a team hurting for good RHBs.
  24. moonslav59
    Casas has had other injuries, too. He's had over 371 PAs, once (2023) since 2019. His highest 3 seasons are 501, 500 and 493.
  25. moonslav59
    It goes beyond injury for Grissom and Story. Can they hit? We know Story is a plus glove, but we also know Grissom looks awful. Grissom is young enough to still improve, but can we afford to give him a long look and find out the answer is no? I'd rather start the season with a DHam-Romy or DHam-Grissom 2B platoon, or just give Campbell the job right out of the gate. Both look like better chances at early success. Playing Grissom in some attempt to make some good on the Sale trade does sound like something the Sox FO may choose to do, but how about trying to give the club the best chance at winning?
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