moonslav59

Padres are open to trading their closer, Robert Suarez. He's almost 34 and has 3 years left on his deal ($10M, $8M, $8M) and $9.2 tax line. At that age and cost, the return should not be that hurtful.

That's for sure, but what does he consider fair, is the million dollar question.

True. Between no expected extension, wanting to move Devers to 1B and his injury and injury history, it does make sense, but when you see what some good 1Bmen are getting as returns in trade, I'm not so sure it's worth it. Yoshida really messes us the perfect transition to DH by Casas.

Bregman may be the Boras blunder for 2024. I hope his price and/or years drop. It was a little encouraging to hear the language change on "waiting" to maybe tell Devers about a position change until they are "about" to make a kove. I realize others want Scott, but this is not a $200 or $750M auction.

ST'ing a month away and several big names still on the market. Not many are fits for us, but some are.

The consensus by a few of us seems to be $170M/6 years. I had mentioned $200M/7. The opt-out is a big issue, if he insists on one. I'd give $180M/6 or $200M/7 with no opt out at all. I might give $170M/6 with an opt out after 2029 and or 2030, giving us 2 or 3 more years of control, but there is no consensus on this. (I had mentioned after 2028, but that does seem too generous to Crochet.) If Crochet was a FA, right now, I'd be thrilled, if we signed him to $200M/8, which is essentially $20M/2 for his 2 arb years and $180M/6 for the next 6 yrs. An AAV of $25M is doable for JH & Co, but that assumes it starts in 2025 and buys out his $3.8M 2025 arb year. Give him some more front end money to make him happier and increase the actual worth of his contract, maybe... $7M in '25, $18M in '26, $, $25M '27, then $30M x the last 5 years

To steal a notin idea: Seam Murphy is owed $15M x 4 with a 5th year team option at 415M w no buy out. His tax hit is just $12.2M x 5. A straight swap of Story (owed $22.5, $25, $25 plus $5M buy out= $77.5M/3) with a $23.3M tax line. Maybe we give them $16M over 4 years to just about even up the money, but we'd save $6M a year on the tax line. We'd fill our catcher need and our reliable RHB with some power. This would totally rely on Mayer at SS with Rafaela & Romy as the only real back-ups, until Romero & Arias are ML ready. Sign Tanner Scott at $68M/4 or $80M/5. I think this would turn us into a top 3-4 AL team. 1. L Duran LF 2. R Murphy C 3. L Casas 1B 4. L Devers 3B 5. R Campbell 2B 6. L Anthony CF 7. L Abreu RF/ R Refsnyder DH 8. L Yoshida DH/ R Rafaela RF 9. L Mayer SS Bench: Wong C, Rafaela/Abreu, Refsnyder/Yoshida and one from DHam, Grissom or Romy SP: Crochet, Houck, Buehler, bello, Giolito, Crawford RP: Scott, Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Wilson, Guerrero or Weissert

I think they tend to look at recent 2-3 years numbers more than just the last season, but Duran trumps Crochet in that area. Age should matter, but Duran is not past prime: he's actually at peak prime, now. There should not be regression projected due to his age. I can see projecting better from Crochet as he moves up towards primes, but other Sox player who are pre-prime didn't get the same treatment (see DHam and Abreu.)

It is a big step to take to view him as "the chosen one." So many pitchers in MLB have shown glimpses of "great stuff" or great "metrics," and never amounted to jack. I fully realize I am taking a big leap of faith, and some of that is based on the fact that I am convinced JH & Co. are not going to outbid anyone for fully established FA players getting 6+ years and mega bucks. To me, Crochet represents out best hope at striking gold, $170M/6 is about what Story got-adjusted for inflation. $170M/6 is not Price money. Price was "the chosen one."

When you figure we are a bottom 5 defensive team, you have to think that is a significant factor in dropping that ranking to 14th. We might be 14th or 15th in defense and somewhere between 8th and 11th on "batting" plus "baserunning." The Sox have a lot of younger everyday players, as well as our share or more in injury-prone players that make projections difficult. It's hard as hell to project Story's value, even if you know he'll be 100% healthy. Devers was on pace for a career high OPS, then got hurt and finished with his 4th best, although it was his 2nd best OPS+. They dropped him 22 points, despite being in his peak prime year in 2025. Duran's score is puzzling to many people, not just Sox fans. Granted, Wong, Abreu, Rafaela and DHam have to be scored with caution, To me, casas is all about health. He's gonna rake, if healthy, and he will suck again on D. Projecting the impact of our 3 top prospects is all but impossible. I think I can safely say, no MLB team has the ability to more greatly outperform these projections than Boston. I like our offense. I might rank (AL only) our areas as such: #1-2 Rotation #9-10 Pen #13-14 Defense #5-6 Offense #2-3 Baserunning Last year, we finished T3rd in OPS and T5th in wRC+. We lost O'Neill (.847 in 473 PAs,) but we also lost... .706 in 278 PAs Dom Smith (10th in PAs) .633 in 223 PAs (12th) EValdez (most PAs at 2B) in 158 PAs (14th) McGuire in 96 PAs (17th) Jansen in 93 PAs (18th) Dalbec in 75 PAs (20th) Cooper Just Smith & EValdez had more PAs than O'Neill. The other all combined just about equalled the lost PAs of O'Neill. I'm guessing O'Neill represents about 30% of the PAs we lost. Of course, it matters just how many more PAs Casas gets, otherwise, it's Romy or Wong replacing DSmith-Dalbec-Cooper. How well DHam-Grissom-Rony do at 2B matters a lot on how much they can improve on EValdez, Reyes (.451 in 64 PAs) Campbell offers a lot of upside potential, but I have to think a DHam-Grissom/Romy platoon at 2B can greatly improve on the .533 god-awful 2024 2B OPS. We could easily beat that by 200 points and more than make up for the loss of O'Neill at just one slot. Our 1B OPS was .734. I think we can safely project Casas can beat that by 100 points, if healthy. We might lose 100 points in RF (.888 to .788 w Abreu & Rafaela.) Our DH hit .765. It's hard to project great improvement, there. 3B was .774. I can see adding 75-125 points there. SS at .761 might stay even. We may drop at C (.723.) LF (.768) and CF (.729) may end up close to that, depending on Duran and Rafaela's progress

If Crochet was a FA, this winter, what do you think he'd get? $170/6? Less? Sure, we'll know more in 2 years- for better or worse, but I think $170M/6 is fair for 2027-2032. My guess is Grochet would say no to that, or he'll take it with an opt out after 2029 or 2028.

How many arb years did Strider and Greene have "bought out?"

I assume your offer is with no opt out.

It's not a total apples to apples comp, but there are some strong similarities: both are/were largely unknowns and untested. (Yamo was totally "untested." ) Teams had to project his value, just as the Sox have to try to project Crochet's value- just not starting now, but instead from 2027 to whenever. Much of Yamo's projections had to be made beyond year 1 and two, as well. Yamo got way more, precisely because 30 teams could have signed him, Only one team can sign Crochet, right now. If we don't extend him, that changes after 2026. When using Yamo as a comp, nobody is suggesting we give Crochet "Yamo money." So, we are adjusting for the difference in situations. It is a huge risk, as notin and others have pointed out, but this is not a risk placed on a 30-31 year old pitcher. notin's Sale comp was apples to oranges, too, as Sale was actively showing health concerns, while Crochet's injuries were in his past. Crochet will be just 27 when the extension kicks in, not 30 like Sale was. Giving him one more year than Sale is risky, but his 6th year will be at age 32, while Sale's last year was age 35. Seriously, which contract is more risky? It's hard for anyone to know, but I'd bet on the younger arm, and it is a "bet." It's a big gamble. I've been saying for years that we need to identify someone we think is "they guy" and do what it takes to get and keep him. We missed on keeping Betts and chose Sale/Nate/Devers, instead. It looks like we might have chosen Soto, but got passed by Cohen and the Mets (assuming it wasn't all a sham.) We haven't really bet big on anyone, except Price & Devers, I guess Sale and Story come close, but they are not super large and long guys. Counting inflation, the offers we are suggesting for Crochet are pretty close to Story and Sale money, but Crochet's age tips the balance to me.

100%. I'm all in on this kid, and he is still a "kid." It may backfire, bigtime, but we just moved a big stack of chips to the middle of the table with the players we traded to get him. Now, we were raised and need to decide to push out the rest of the chips, of meekly fold. I'd rather put my chips in on a bet like Crochet than Bregman.

The real roster blocker is Yoshida. If he is gone, it frees up a lot of roster flexibility and makes room for a number of options, internal or external. Bregman or Campbell at 3B with Devers/Casas sharing 1B and DH. Campbell (or Mayer) at 3B ends the future logjam at middle IF between Story, Mayer and Campbell. Yoshida does not affect the possible OF logjam, but with an Abreu-Rafaela platoon, there never was one. Once Refsnyder retires, there is nobody forced to the bench who should be in the line-up. LF: Duran, CF: Anthony-Rafaela, RF: Abreu-Anthony, or just go with Anthony as the FT CF'er and platoon Abreu and Rafaela in RF. Look at the flex on this roster in 2026: C: Wong (2B/1B) and Narvaez 1B/DH: Devers & Casas 2B: Mayer (SS) SS: Story (2B) 3B: Campbell (2B/OF) LF: Duran (CF) CF: Anthony (RF) RF: Abreu (CF/LF) & Rafaela (CF, 2B, SS) Bench: (Rafaela or Abreu) DHam (2B, SS, OF) Romy (SS, 2B, 3B, 1B, OF) Grissom (2B, 3B, SS) This roster looks very nice, although a big chunk of it is based on speculation and what ifs. If Devers can defend 1B better than Casas, we could see a nice gain there. If not, having Devers and Casas share 1B and DH could help them stay fresher/healthier and allow them to play more games by "resting" at DH rather than sitting out 5-8 games a year as off days. While Campbell's defense is somewhat unknown, it is more because he has not been handed one position to master, yet, and not out of some sort of lack of defensive skills. He should end up being fine, wherever he ends up. Mayer and Anthony are both plusses on D. I'm very excited about our future with these three prospects, and I fully realize 1 or maybe even 2 could end up as let-downs. We seem to have capable depth, if that happens. Between DHam, Grissom, Romy, Romero and Arias, we should be able to make up for a flop by Mayer or Campbell. If Anthony flops, we might have to go with Abreu playing FT, not platoon and Rafaela FT, too, although adding a platoon OF bat is usually in expensive and easy to do. if needed. (Maybe Ref plays one more year to delay the need for a RHB OF'er.)

Again, it is not 14th in batting. It's 14th in everyday player fWAR, which combines batting with defense. I don't have an issue with being ranked 7th. I might have us 5th or 6th with the potential to be 3rd or 4th, but other teams near us also have potential to do better (or worse.)

I just read this after my most recent post. Yes! Adding a catcher blocks nobody. Adding Bregman may block Yoshida, but not really a prospect, even if Story stays healthy for 3 more years.

We did have a couple major areas of need, that if we had filled them, would not in anyway, shape or form blocked one of our top 3 prospects. Those two areas were and still are: Catcher (especially defense) Corner IF defense. Signing Bregman would not block Campbell or Mayer, as Campbell can play OF, and 2B is wise open. If Story stays healthy, it could squeeze somebody, a little, but at worst, Rafaela becomes the super utility guy with all the flex Cora loves for such a role. Also, if Story stays healthy and does well, we could trade him and save some money to help pay for Bregman and extensions these young players should be given. Signing a FA catcher was not super costly, this winter: $5.8M x 2 Carson Kelly, $6M x 2 d'Arnaud, $6.75M x 2 Higgy or $8.5M/1 Jansen. Instead we chose a trade for someone who could be good and is good on D, but who fits the 3rd catcher role, not a #2. It seems we may still be looking at corner IF defense, either by signing Bregman or swapping out Casas for a RHB 1Bman, b ut Alonso is no great glove at 1B, either, and Devers would stay put with an Alonso signing. Sure, someday, we could see Campbell or Mayer at 3B, and the other at 2B. Anthony could win a FT job in CF or RF, of flip back and forth to accommodate an Abreu platoon with Rafaela or Refsnyder. We do seem to have a lot of flexibility and depth, despite having so many players who look best placed at DH. (Yoshida- 3 yrs, Refsnyder 1 yr, Devers- 9 yrs and Casas 4 yrs.)

Leadership from a player(s) can be very important, especially to a young team. I'm not sure you have to have a ring on your hand to be qualified as a good leader, but it probably helps, some. I think Story plays the game hard, and in part, that is why he has gotten hurt, so much, It is hard to be a team leader when you are on the IL 75% of the time, but if Story plays a full season, I could see him becoming a key leader= maybe more so on the defensive side of the game. He might be the closest thing to being a leader from the non pitcher side of the team. Others who have played more than 5 seasons: Devers & Refsnyder. I don't know enough about the personalities of many of our older, more experienced and or most successful pitchers, like Buehler, Gio, Hendriks and Chapman. (I almost didn't even include Chapman due to his off field issues.) I don't see Houck, Crawford or Whitlock as natural leaders. I do think someone like Bregman could add that to this team, but I've soured on the idea, recently. To me, he's just not the kind of guy we should be choosing to be the biggest FA signing since Price. If we signed him to play 3B, he'd be a big boost, but to me, it still is not the major move we needed.

We have seen Duran struggle with his approach, stance and even defense, but to me, he has gone 1.5 years of playing very well- all around. I could see him having a season with some slight regression, but to me the odds are he has an equal chance of further improvement, too. Maybe these projections light a fire underneath him.

Are the possible 2025 numbers over the top, or could they be realistic? Full Timers: .285 40 120 Devers .260 35 100 Casas .295 25 85 Duran (120 runs & 90 xBHs) .250 20 90 Story (550 PAs) .275 15 60 Wong (500 PAs) Not Full Timers: .290 15 75 Yoshida (500 PAs) .260 20 80 Abreu (500 PAs) .250 15 70 Rafaela (500 PAs) .250 10 40 (350 PAs) DHam .250 10 40 (350 PAs) Grissom + Romy .280 10 45 (300 PAs) Refsnyder .230 10 30 (200 PAs) Narvaez (.310 OBP)

Career: OPS+ 160 Soto/ Vlad 139 OBP/SLG .421/.532 Soto .363/.500 Vlad Per 162 .285 35 102 Soto .288 32 100 Vlad Neither is good on D.

Skubal is almost 2 and half years older and has almost triple the ML innings as Crochet, but it will be interesting. One could argue Skubal is the best pitcher in the AL or even MLB. 1st in AL fWAR from '23-'24. 1st in MLB in ERA- at 62 Blows everyone away in FIP (2.35) and is 2nd in xFIP and xFIP-

Crochet seems open to extending with the Sox... " “There have been conversations with my agent and the front office, just kind of getting a feel for one another,” Crochet said, as relayed by Cotillo. “Staying in Boston long-term is something that has a lot of merit in my mind and something I think would be awesome. In the meantime, I’m just focusing on spring and getting ready for the upcoming season, trying to stay focused one day at a time. When something’s presented, then we’ll attack it.”"