moonslav59

If HOU gets Bregman, they still need a LHB in the OF and might want to dump some salary. How about this... Abreu, DHam, Cespedes & Fitts for 3B Isaac Paredes RHP ($6.6M and 2 more arbs) + C Victor Carating ($6M/1 then FA)

Agreed. That's why I put him at SS and Mayer at 3B. When you look at my grouping of top prospects, we seem to have just about every position covered, pretty well. The weakest might be Justin Gonzales at 1B, but we have Casas and Devers under control for many years. Of course, the pitching is the most questionable, but I still insist we have more promising pitchers than we've had in a long time, but still not enough highly promising ones. Only a healthy Perales rates to be top 100 in MLB. Tolle, Fitts, Sandlin, Cason, Early, Valera, D Reyes and Delzine all have a way to go to be near top 100.

Were those his BAbip vs LHPs? His overall BAbip was .279 and .296, the last 2 years and is .291 career. You seem to really value what players did, last year, or over the last half of 2024. Arenado has seen a huge decline in bat speed and hard hit ball rates for two full seasons. I think the sample size is legit. That's not to say he is beyond a resurgence, and maybe Fenway and a change or scenery will help, but I do not expect him to improve, at his age. Hard hit % career: 35.2% (2021>2024: 33.7>31.9>33.8>27.2) He did have a 21.3% line drive % in '24, which is higher than his career 20.4%. His D could even decline, slowly.

I trust the Sox know which pitchers we have in our system with very minimal chances at giving us lasting value. Of course, the ones we identify, are likely the same ones other teams don't want. The trick is to find one some other team likes more than we do, and hope we know more than they do. Unlike some, I think we have begun to improve the pitching pipeline in our system. Counting Whitlock, who we acquired as a prospect, we have seen these pitchers at the MLB level: DD's guys: Houck, Crawford, Bello & Perales (Better than Bloom's combined guys) Bloom's guys: Whitlock, Wink, Dobbins, Guerrero, Early, Kelly, Valera, Monegro, Paez, Mullins, Wehunt Breslow's guys: Slaten, Fitts, Priester, Sandlin, Tolle, Cason, D Reyes, Delzine (This group may be better than Bloom's, too.) I'd avoid trading any of these guys, but for something good, fine. (Notice I did not list Penrod or the vets acquired.) I'm not trying to take anything away from our ring seasons, but those teams were not built on our farm pitching pipeline. 2018: Trade or FA: Sale, Price, Porcello, Nate, ERod (as a prospect) Kimbrel, Kelly, Hembree, Pom, Wright. FARM: Barnes, Velazquez, B Johnson, Workman. 2013: Non Farm: Lackey, Dempster, Doubront, Uehara, Miller, Bailey, Breslow, Peavy, Aceves, Webster, Mortenson. FARM (more this year) Lester, Buch, Wilson (Taz?) 2007: Non Farm: Beckett, Wake, Schill, Tavarez, Timlin (Okajima & Dice K?) FARM: Lester (11 GS) & Papebon 2004: Non Farm: Pedro, Schill, Wake, Lowe, Arroyo, Foulke, Timlin, Embree, Williamson, Leskanic, Mendoza. FARM: basically none Certainly, we have moved in the right direction on building up a pitching pipeline since 2018, but we have failed, badly on our non farm additions.

I was one of the first poster who suggested then advocated for Devers to move to 1B/DH. I still want that to happen, but at what cost? We can find a plus D 3Bman for min wage. We need something from Arenado on offense to bring his value to the plus side. We could just play Campbell at 3B, or even Rafaela or Grissom/Mayer/Story.Romy/DHam. All would be better than Devers and not cost a penny or prospect. Signs and signals are nice, but we don't have to pay $15M x 3 for a very good defensive 3Bman. Arenado is the RHB fix. He's been worse than Yoshida vs LHPs for 2 years. I suppose we could use Yoshida in LF, so Arenado's bat replaces Rafaela's, as Duran moves to CF and Ref platoons with Abreu in RF, but then we send a signal that LF & RF defense is not a concern. This is the only way I see Arenado's bat adding value to the current line-up. He should hit better than Rafaela vs LHPs and RHPs.

No. You are assuming he does not continue his decline, as he gets even older. He may have been worth $16M in 2024, according to fWAR, but fWAR is not a predictor of the future. (I think he was actually a 3 fWAR and like 2.5 bWAR.) I don't think he continues to hit even at his recent rates, and his D may decline, too. I guess, if he gives us 2.5> 2.0> 1.5 of even 2.2> 1.7> 1.2 might be worth $15M a year, but not alsso giving up Fitts, IMO. Thanks for at least trying to explain why he has that much value. Anyone know what BTV has his value at minus his pay hit.

I'm not super high on Fitts, but with the state of our pitching farm history, I think I'd rather pay $5M more and keep Fitts. Give them Castro or Jordan. Throw in Gambrell, but again, not if we have to pay more than $10M x 3. They should give us a prospect at $15M x 3. Can you explain to me, why Arendao is worth giving a prospect for at $15M x 3?

These are some possibilities, too: 1. Story stays healthy into June and is playing excellent defense and hitting over .740. Dham & Romy or Grissom are holding down the 2B job, very well. Their defense is a net plus, and DHam is hitting .750 v RHPs and Romy .800 v LHPs. Maybe that keeps Mayer and Campbell from being added to the infiled, unless we are thinking 3B. 2. An OF of Duran & Ref in LF, Rafaela & Duran in CF and Abreu & Rafaela in RF is doing as well as they did in 2024, or better. The need for Anthony or Campbell in the OF is not present. Now, we may decide that even if those positions are doing okay or better, a prospect addition could provide an even better result. I'm not against that idea, despite the old adage, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." How much we want to prolong the prospect additions to gain a year(s) or control may play into the chocies and timing of the choices, but we do have some decent hopes at 2B, SS and OF without counting on the kids.

1. Rafaela cannot hits as well as DHam vs RHPs and Romy vs LHPs, and both of them seem like plusses on D at 2B. 2. Grissom will be given a chance to redeem himself, even if he has to first prove himself in ST'ing and or AAA, first. 3, Rafaela is a much better defensive OF'er than Campbell, and Anthony is about to put a squeeze on the OF, soon, as well. I'm not writing off the idea. I'd like to see how Campbell plays 2B defense, first.

fWAR adds (or subtracts) positional value, and so, DH's get dinged, even if they hit well. Papi's highest fWARs were... 6.3 in 2007 5.3 in '06 5.3 in '05 4.6 in his last season His "positional values," those years were between -15 and -17. I'm not sure what his WAR would be, if he had just a 0 positional value. Yoshida is a plus hitter, but his awful LF D, which forces him to be a DH only player really does hurt the team by about as much as his bat helps.

They seem more interested in lowering their budget, as they are shopping Suzuki.

Arenado is not an upgrade vs LHPs. 2023-2024 OPS v LHPs: .886 Refsnyder (290 PAs) .879 Romy (130) .794 Casas (158) Some want to trade him, if we get Arenado or Bregman. .749 Devers (412) .721 Wong (260) .704 Bregman (397) Not much better than Yoshida v L .680 Duran (279) .669 Yoshida (better than Arenado & Bregman vs RHPs) .654 Arenado (299) .619 Grissom (24) .610 Rafaela (179) .573 Story (58) .539 DHam (53) Should not start vs LHPs .514 Abreu (77) Should not start vs LHPs

So, we actually get worse vs LHPs by swapping out Yoshida's slot in the line-up for Arenado- just for a gain on 3B D, and all for $15M x 3. What am I missing, here?

Does BTV have Fitts worth just $5M?

You think arenado is worth $45M/3 or $15M x 3? Plus Fitts? I don't see it. .680 glove first 3Bmen should be near min wage cost. Or, dom you think Arenado will have some sort of resurrgence?

I'm not sure why so many posters want Arenado, and I'm a huge fan of defense. The guy is in the midst of a serious decline that looks to be age related. He is not a solution vs LHPs, and he might even make us worse vs lefties. 2024 v L: .235/.266/.379/.646 2023 v L: .220/.276/.386/.662 He's has had very low OBP and SLG vs LHPs for 2 years. Who's bat is he replacing? Yoshida? (2023-2024 v L: .239/.318/.351/.669) I hope it's not Refsnyder. Is the improved defense at 3B worth making us even worse vs LHPs? Maybe, by a tiny bit, but why pay anything for this, while also giving up any decent prospect. If it's Fitts and not Jordan, I'll be doubly pissed. I'm not even sure I want Arenado at R$10M x 3 for no prospect or player, other than Yoshida plus cash.

Seeing those two sign bummed me out. I'd like to think Brez has a plan, but with these cheapies, I can't expect anything, anymore. Maybe, he's already decided that once Bregman decides, it will be him or Arenado, but neither is all that great vs LHPs, and Arenado has actually sucked vs lefties for 2 straight years.

Casas hits lefties pretty well. No thanks.

He might be as bad, there, as Yoshida on D.

The Sox appear to not be willing to budge off their shorter term offer. It is rumorer the Tigers and Jays have offered longer deals and the Astros may have recently upped their 6 year offer in dollars, but they are said to be longshots, still. That lead me to think DET & TOR have offered more than $160M/6. Maybe we offered a higher AAV and or an opt-out, but maybe just 4 years. (Maybe a 5 year higher AAV would work, but I doubt we budge.)

My OCD has migrated to the Sox, almost exclusively. (I'm still a contract bridge fiend, as well.)

The Cubs are reportedly shopping RHB Suzuki to cut costs. He's owed $19M x 2 ($17M AAV on CBT.) How about expanding the deal to save them even more, while we get to dump some lesser salaries, ourselves. $137M/5 RHB Swanson SS and $38M/2 ($25.3 AAV) & RHB Suzuki OF/DH (Total: $175M and $42M AAV +$6M x 3 paid towards Yoshida= $48M AAV vs $41.3M now) for $77.5M/3 Story ($23.3 AAV) and $55.8M/3 Yoshida ($18M AVV) + $6M x 3 yrs = Total: $115M and $35M AAV Add 2 from Crawford, Abreu or Cespedes/Bleis. Would you move Swanson to 3B for Mayer or try Mayer or Campbell at 3B, when we finally moves Devers to 1B/DH?

Top Sox Prospects from soxprospects.com by position (I moved a few to fit the top prospects into the starting 9): C: Jo Garcia (15 A-) 1B: Ju Gonzales (25 FCL) 2B: Campbell (2 AAA) 3B: Mayer (3 AAA) * from SS SS: Arais (5 A+) LF: Jh Garcia (12 AA) CF: Bleis (6 A+) RF: Anthony (1 AAA) DH: Cespedes (7 A-) Bench: Romero (13 AA) Castro (18 AA) Narvaez (28 MLB) N Taylor (26 A+) or Jordan (27 AA) SP: Perales (4 AA) Dobbins (8 AAA) Fitts (9 AAA) Tolle (10 A+) Early (14 AA) RP: Sandlin (11 AA) Guerrero (17 MLB) Pendrod (20 AAA) Cason (16 A-) Valera (19 A-) Monegro (21 AA) D Reyes (22 FCL) J Paez (23 A+) or Mullins (24 AA) When you look at this, as a whole, it looks pretty solid and maybe more balanced that it has been since the days of Lester, Buch and Masterson.

If we end up with a so-so closer, we might be able to compensate by having the next 3-4 guys have great years and lockdown the 7th and 8th, so we don't need so many save opportunities. Say Hendriks closes: if Chapman, Slaten and Whitlock can pitch like they have shown they can, recently, and Wink holds his own, maybe the pen can surprise us.

Nobody has to google Burger King.