moonslav59

Yes, counting on Sandoval in August is likely a no-go. I can see Crochet, Houck, Bello and Crawford getting 27-33 GS. Maybe Buehler and Gio can get 24-30. The closer these 6 can combine to get 162 GS'd, the better we should be. I'm not down on Criswell, Fitts, Priester and Dobbins, but we should expect better from our top 6. In 2024, we had 13 different pitchers start 6 or 7 "opener games" and "pen games." 0 Giolito and 4 Whitlock, really set us back, but Houck (30) and Criswell (18) filled in well. We also got 6 GS from Wink, 4 from Fitts, 3 from Paxton and 1 from Priester.

I think the best we can hope for is that 5 are healthy, at any given time.

I did not remember Kutter's TJS. Wow, yet one more to the list.

Me, too. Gio has been good, at times, since 2021, but not for a full season. 2022: He was okay for his first 9 games (3.54 ERA.) He still had a 4.06 FIP on the season, which was better than 4.42 over those first 9 games. 2023: 3.41 ERA after 16 GS (but 4.19 FIP) He was still at 3.85 at the end of July (22 GS) Not great but close to Bello & Crawford numbers.

Crawford had TJS, too?

ST'ing games will begin, soon. The talk will pivot to that.

Where is the "train?" Red thinks he may be our #2, but other than him, I think everyone thinks he's a decent 4/5 slot pitcher- similar to Crawford. They both have areas, where they are better than the other, and overall, from '23-'24 Crawford leads in more categories, but the HR issues loom large. July>SEP '24: 3.66 Bello (3.67 FIP suggests it was not a fluke) .662 OPS Against (.724 for season) 5.22 Crawford (5.31 suggests not bad luck) .735 OPSA (.702 for season is barely better than bello's.) Recency matters to many posters.

Yup. .505 to .515 is likely.

We've beaten the injured pitcher issue to death, and the trade of oft-injured Sale and his subsequent turn-around and injury right before the playoffs sparked a heated debate. Here is a look at our 2025 pitchers and their injury history. Crochet: TJS in '22 and recently converted to a SP'er. Houck: Back surgery in '22 and missed time with facial fracture in '23. Buehler: has a long history of injuries: Rib, elbow and hip along with blisters Giolito: had pretty good durable stretch until March '24, when he had the internal brace procedure on his elbow. Bello: missed time in the minors and had a Lat and back issue in '24, but missed very little time. Crawford: I'm not sure why he did not get over 96 IP in the minors in 2019 and 2021, but he's been healthy in the bigs. Hendriks: TJS in August '23- had set backs in '24. Chapman: Seems to have stayed relatively healthy, but he turns 37, soon. Slaten: missed time in '24- not sure about minors. Whitlock: has missed a lot of time over the years w BOS, and had major surgery in minors. Fulmer: has not pitched in a long time. Mata: is the poster boy for missing time with injuries. Murphy: missing almost 2 years

Good to know. He is younger, and near average is a big boost up from Wong. How good is Pages?

2023-2024: HR/9: 0.79 Houck, 1.21 Bello, 1.47 Crawford xFIP: 3.76 Houck, 3.94 Bello, 4.34 Crawford ERA-: 87 Houck, 97 Crawford, 100 Bello BAbip: .256 Crawford, .288 Houck, .305 Bello (Maybe some luck helped Crawford.) Granted, Crawford leads in many more stats and metrics.

Taking the ball every 5 days is a value, especially to a team like the Sox, who have 80% of their pitchers with significant injury histories. He places 30th in MLB in GS since 2023 with 58. 30th in IP at 319. 64th in fWAR is partially a result of so many IP, but that still is pretty good. 51st i xFIP an 3.94 and 66th in SIERA at 4.15. Those are solid #3 numbers, which is not bad for a pitchers first two full seasons in MLB. I think some of the "love" is based on hopes that he progresses as he nears his prime years.

The whole Bregman saga is getting tiring.

Indeed, and several vets, too.

Was Grissom's problem being scrawny?

I'm not sure how much that matters, after what he's shown over the last 3-4 years, but add another guy to the list of great hopes on players who were great 2-5 years ago.

Herrera is not good on D? (Word is Narvaez is supposed to be good. Can he hit, well enough?)

I doubt it's Herrera, either.

Kershaw stays with Dodgers.

I think the chances are less than 10% on Bregman and maybe better than 50% on Arenado. I'm thinking less than 1% on Robertson, so I'm not sure anyone else, other than by trade, is not a big add. If we do add a 3Bman, maybe a trade follows: I just hope it's not Casas. Replacing Casas' bat with Breg or Arenado would hurt the O vs LHPs and RHPs. Even replacing Yoshida's bat is not going to be an improvement. (Only replacing Rafaela's bat would see a plus on O.) Maybe we trade for Arenado and trade Abreu for a catcher or closer, then go with Anthony in RF. Hard to know.

Do you give... Fitts & Cespedes for Herrera and Arenado + $8M x 3 yrs?

I don't think 81 wins was a fluke, last year. I think we got better, TOR got better, NYY might have, BAL and TBR did not. I'm thinking 85 wins, as of now.

I'd have settled for the one year deals given to... Yates $13M/1 Estevez $22M/2 (not really a closer) Even Sewald at $7M/1 gives us another option. Robertson might still sign for a 1 year deal... maybe 2.

So, that means it's adjusted for what? park factors? I'd be curious what percentile he'd be in, if they used a 270 player sample size. Your numbers do show he is not likely to be top 50% in even that size sample, but he might be close.

Okay. Thanks. I like to use 270 batter sample sizes to get a true read on where a player ranks (30 teams x 9 batters.) 129 batters is about 4.5 batters per team, so 124th could be out 134th out of 270, as the worse hitters normally are not top 129 batters in PAs. On ISO. I don't get the 18th percentile. fangraphs has him 46th out of 138 qualifiers since 2023. I may not be great in Math, but that is not bottom 18th %. He's 85th out of 129 for 2024, only. That's bottom 34% not 18%. Do they calculate ISO differently?