moonslav59

I still maintain there is enough matching pieces to figure out some sort of SEA-BOS trade. I fully understand SEA's reluctance to trade Woo or Miller for just Casas. I also understand why they don't want Yoshida as part of a Castillo deal, but we could add money, or take on Haniger or Garver's contract to further the savings for SEA. If Garver was not so bad on defense at Catcher, he'd be a great fit. I do think his bat has bounce-back potential, but he does turn 34, soon. Perhaps he is toast. Maybe Haniger makes more sense, but we do have Anthony knocking on the CF/RF door, and RHB Campbell can play OF, too. I think just adding enough money might be what is needed. I doubt SEA wants DHam or Winckowski, but maybe adding Fitts or Priester could be enough. Could this get it done? Casas (pre-arb then 3 ARBs) Rafaela ($48M/7) & Yoshida ($56M/3) for Castillo ($72M/3), Haniger ($15.5M/1) and Garver ($12.5M/1) SEA saves a lot, year one (like $30M), then it's about even for 2 years. BOS sees the AAV like this: $24M in '25($48M-$24), Save $2M in '26 and '27 ($$24.3M-21.6), then save Rafaela's contract for 4 years ($6.3M) I think Rafaela sweetens the pot for SEA by enough, and taking on Haniger and Garver makes the money work for SEA. BOS might be getting two total duds in Haniger and Garver, but each are in their last year of control. The real worry for BOS is castillo's apparent decline and age (32-34 for contract years plus vesting option.) I'm not so sure this works for BOS. Is Castillo really going to do much better than Gio/Craw in '25 and Craw/Fitts/Priester in '26 and '27? Is the gain worth losing Casas? Do we then need to sign Bregman, so Devers moves to 1B? We'd also lose the two guys best suited for DH, but that can be easily covered by platooning Refsnyder with Haniger or Garver. Maybe I have too much time on my hands, too. I'd rather we work out a deal for Miller or Woo, but I'm thinking maybe they are not as good as I once thought they were.

I thought he might get $240/7 or $250M/8. We had tax room for a $30M AAV, and maybe we could have traded Crawford and others for a 2 of .... RHB, top RP or catcher.

Burnes to AZ for about what what MLBR projected: $210M/6. (They projected $200M/7. He was asking for $245M+) $35M a year is a massive amount for an AAV. He just turned 30, so this deal ends at a reasonable 35 years old. I get the risk involved with this type of deal vs $21M/1 for Buehler. It's not an easy choice to make, even if being cheap was not part of the decision.

Here is my stab in the dark... 2. Burnes $240M/8- Toronto 3. Bregman $200M/8- NYY 7. Alonso $130M/5- SEA 8. Flaherty $120M/5- SFG 9. Santander $95M/5- HOU 14. Scott $70M/5- BAL *18. Hoffman $50M/4- NYM *22. Estevez $30M/3- BOS *28. Pivetta $63M/3 (MLBR has $21M/1) TEX 16. Profar $50M/3 LAA 25. Heaney $25M/2- PHI 26. H Kim $25M/3- MIL 31. Quintana $22M/2- KCR

Next contract time, they need to do something about the differed money lowering the AAV. The Dodgers are already making a mockery out of the lux tax rules, as it is. They say the Teoscare signing at $63M/3 will cost them $40M in taxes, which shows you just how much they can outbid anyone for anyone they want, except maybe Cohen, but really, the tax is 110%. They should have to pay $67M tax not $40M. Maybe then, they might not do it.

Didn't seem that way, but all the talk was the Dodgers were "far apart." They also have to pay 110% tax on the deal. Hard to compete with that.

I think his name might only come up, when taking back a really big contract.

He's probably asked, but heard loud No's.

I get it, but we need a RHB< and there isn't much out there. Abreu sucks vs LHPs, and Anthony is poised to grab the FT RF/CF job. I get it. Campbell can play F, too. I really like Abreu, but I think we'd get a very useful piece by trading him. Teoscar makes it easier to part with Wilyer.

MLBTR has $44M/4

Bregman was pretty good vs LHPs, until the last 2 years, when he has had reverse splits. Arenado would be nice, if we could dump Yoshida. I might even give Mayer & Yoshi for Arenado and a catcher with no money added.

I think signing Teoscar would have meant a sure trade of Rafaela or Abreu, leaving this: LF: Teoscar (Refsnyder) CF: Duran (Anthony) RF: Anthony/Rafaela or Abreu/Anthony (Campbell) Maybe we'd get a decent RP and a back-up catcher for Abreu (or Abreu + DHam)

Top remaining Free Agents (ranked by MLBTR) with my estimated cost 2. Burnes $240M/8- Mayber? 3. Bregman $200M/8- Maybe? 7. Alonso $130M/5 8. Flaherty $120M/5- maybe? 9. Santander $95M/5 14. Scott $70M/5- YES *18. Hoffman $50M/4- YES *22. Estevez $30M/3- yes *28. Pivetta $63M/3 (MLBR has $21M/1) doubtful 16. Profar $50M/3 25. Heaney $25M/2 26. H Kim $25M/3 31. Quintana $22M/2 33. Scherzer $17M/1, 41. Gibson $14M/1, 45. Verlander $13M/1, 48. Ogasawara $13M/2 34. Minter $18M/2, 38. Yates $15M/1, 40. Kittredge $15M/2, Kahnle $14M/2, Robertson $12M/1 43. H-S Kim $12M/1 49. H Bader $9M/1, 50. Turnbull $8/1M NR: Morton $8M/1, Kershaw $7M/1. T Williams $7M/1, L Lynn $6M/1, Junis $5M/1 Jansen $10M/1, Martin $12M/2, Sewald $7M/1, Leclerc $10M/2 Grichuck $16M/2, J Turner & JD Martinez $7M/1

We overpaid for Crochet, but I think it is the price needed to pay for what we needed most. Crochet has questions, but he's younger than any FA signing would have been. I'm not high on the Buehler pillow contract, but he looks like a better bet than Kluber, Richards, Wacha and Hill were, but at double the cost, that is expected, The Chapman signing was okay, but not instead of adding a closer. If this is all we do, I'm not happy, at all. We basically traded for a two year window with Crochet, unless we extend him, so we need more to make a strong push. (Bregman, Burnes or Scott/Hoffman.)

I thought maybe he could be had for a 4 year deal between $76-80M.

LOL. I doubt even TH and Hoffman could happen.

Not sure what we'd have to add. I think I heard they want to start playing Raleigh less and less at catcher.

I would not consider moving Bello from the rotation. He's my 3 or 4, depending on Buehler. I have KC going to the pen with Gio as the #5. I'm fine, if you don't like numbering the rotation. It does not really matter in many senses, but it seemed to me, like it does matter to you. No biggie. MVP is not a big Bello fan. There are reasons not to. I really like Bello's chances of breaking out, in 2025.

I wonder, if that deal offer is true, how much money we offered to offset Yoshi. I'm thinking maybe we need to offer $12-14M x 3 to get close to a yes.

Sox sign Noah Davis to minors

You did "care" where someone ranked Bello, and you mentioned in the same post that you felt he could be our #1. I'm not sure why you argue with the guy who agreed with you on Bello, while saying you don't care about rankings but go on and on about them.

So, do you or do you not give a "rats ass" about who does better? I really like Bello and place him as our 3 or 4 slot SP'er, as of now. I think he can and will get better as he matures. You started this whole thing by saying Bello may end up the best SP of the group, and I agree. He can. We do not have anyone proven to be a sure bet ace, but you have to expect some push back on how our SP'ers are slotted, on paper, as of now- based on what we have seen from all of them.

Even if you take away 2024, his history was better, although doubts about 150+ IP were present.

13 is too many? (The ones in parenthesis are in AAA . I listed Crawford as the 6th starter and in the pen.) Do you think the STL offer was fair?

Houck was "awesome" from 2020-2022. For a young RP/SP who struggled in the 5th IP as his only weak point, other than injuries, he was damn good. His history blows Bello's away. With him, it's all about staying healthy and proving he can go 175+ IP back-to-back. Bello has to prove he can even pitch 75% as well as Houck does. Bello has also never pitched 178 IP, like Houck has. His tops is 162. Counting the minors: Bello: 118 IP in 2019, 95 in '21, 96 in '22, 153 in '23 (minors+ majors), 162 in '23 (AAA+MLB) and 165 in '24 (AA+MLB) Houck: 300 IP in 3 college seasons ('15-'17), then 22, 119, 108, 90 in '21 (AAA+MLB,) 60 in '22 (almost all as RP,) 115 in '23 (AAA+MLB) and 179 in '24 I don't see an IP advantage to Bello.