moonslav59

According to cots, we are under the tax line by $36M. Could this work? Sign: Teoscar Hernandez $76M/4 ($19M AAV) Lower AAV but extra year. Trade: Rafaela ($6.2 AAV x 7 years,) DHam, Cespedes, Sandlin and Fitts For: Arenado ($25.5 AAV after COL payments) and Helsley ($6.8 est final arb) + $10M x 3 years ($30M) We come in $1M under the tax line. 1. Duran CF 2. Teoscar LF 3. Casas DH/1B 4. Devers 1B/DH 5. Arenado 3B 6. Abreu RF (Anthony, eventually) 7. Story SS 8. Campbell 2B 9. Wong-Narvaez C Bench: Narvaez, Grissom, Refsnyder, Yoshida (Romy, Anthony, Mayer) SP: Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Bello, Giolito (Crawford) RP: Helsley, Chapman, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Crawford, Winckowski, Wilson (Guerrero)

He does have one good thing going for him, over others: 2nd half of 2024 ERA: 3.47 Bello (1.225 WHIP was second to Nick) 3.48 Criswell (1.452) 4.20 Pivetta (1.150 was best) 4.23 Houck (1.36) 6.59 Crawford (1.249)

Houck was awesome over his first 3 seasons with the Sox, despite missing some time in 2021 and 2022. His only bas year was 2023. Injuries are a concern with him, but I'm encouraged by his full 2024 season as a starter. 2020-2022: 150 ERA+, 3.02 ERA/2.95 FIP (His 69 ERA- ranked 30th out of 234 pitchers with 140+ IP.) He's been hurt, but he's only had one bad year. I like Bello, a lot, but he has yet to prove he can come close to what Houck had already done in all but one season. Crochet has major questions about his ability to pitch 150+ IP for the next 2 years, let alone 170 or 180. No doubt, that is a concern, but when you look at what our SP'ers have done, especially most recently, it seems totally logical to slot Crochet and Houck 1-2, knowing full well, MLB is fluid. Bello could be poised for a great year, or he could continue to decline, as he did in 2024. Buehler is the big wild card, in terms of range of projected 2025 production. Gio has not done much in 3 years. I can see slotting him 5th or even 6th.

Indeed, Bello could easily be our #3. Gio, Buehler and Crawford all have serious questions, but so does Bello. He needs to show his 2024 decline was just a blip. ERA 4.24>4.49 (ERA+ 107>95) WHIP 1.338> 1.361 K/BB 2.9>2.4 2024 Rankings: ERA+ 137 Houck, 105 Criswell, 103 Pivetta & Wink, 98 Crawford, 95 Bello FIP: 3.32 Houck, 4.07 Pivetta, 4.15 Criswell, 4.19 Bello, 4.48 Wink, 4.65 Crawford K/BB: 4.8 Pivetta, 3.4 Crawford, 3.2 Houck, 2.4 Criswell & Bello, 2.3 Wink Certainly, Bello can improve, but in no way should he be called our 3rd SP. 4th or 5th sounds about right. Crochet and Houck are clear 1 & 2. Buehler has the potential to be our 1-2 and could be viewed as our #3, on paper, right now, but there are many questions. Giolito was one of MLB's top 10 pitchers from 2019-2021, but that seems like so far away. He showed some hope over the first half of 2023, but one half of a good season out of 6 halves is not good, at all. I'm fine with putting Bello 4 and Gio or Crawford 5th and 6th.

We need all the help in the pen we can get. Crawford can eat a lot of innings there and spot start, when needed, thereby prolonging the need to call anyone up Wink and Whitlock (eventually) can go 2-3 IP, every few days. IMO, we still need a bonafide closer, badly. Making Hendriks & CHapman the set-up men looks pretty good, on paper. Slaten has the potential to be the third solid set-up man or 7th inning guy. The whole pen and pen depth gets much better, if we add a solid closer. That being said, I seriously doubt it happens.

Something we could have used. ERA+/IP 2006: 142/241 (Led league) The Sox had 1 SP'er w an ERA+ over 103 (40 starts from scrubs) 2007: 109/211 The Sox had just 2 SP'ers over 108 (Beckett & Schill) Tavarez had 23 GS at 92 ERA+ 2008: 92/200 Buchholz had a 69 ERA+ and the 5th most GS 2009: 110/220 The Sox had 2 SP'ers over 111 (Beckett & Lester) Penny 83, Dice K 81, Smoltz 56 (44 GS total) 2010: 105/216 Buch led the majors at 187 and Lester was at 134, but the next 5 were below 100.

He's already way better than Wong on D- not a hard thing to do, but reports say he is a plus-plus catcher on D. Compared to Wong in the minors: Wong: .276/.337/.496/.832 (AAA .327 OBP/.471 SLG w 23 HRs & 138 Ks in 563 PAs) Narvaez: .250/.364/.382/.746 (AAA: .371 OBP/.400 SLG w 21 HRs & 196 Ks in 762 PAs) Narvaez: Way better D, better OBP Wong: better SLG Pretty close on K rate and HRs in AAA.

Throw in DHam and call it a deal.

Crawford/Bello as our 6th starter is the best we've had since maybe 2018, after the Nate trade, but Pom-Pom was having an awful year. Criswell may be the best 7th starter in along time, and the Fitts-Priester-Fulmer trio (plus Dobbins) offer us a decent pool to choose the best from, if needed. I would still love to see us get a #1-2 type and push everyone else down another notch, but that is a pipedream. I doubt we even add a solid RP'er. I think our sights are set on Bregman or Teoscar and maybe a back-up catcher by trade.

G Torres to DET for $15M/1. Maybe they drop out of the Bregman auction.

Welcome back!

Narvaez would be the #2. They would be depth. Narvaez is really good on D. His bat is a major concern, but he did show 20 HR power and a nice OBP in the monirs. My guess is we'll add a catcher or two on minor league deals and maybe make one more slash with a RHB. notin suggested a trade for Sean Murphy that would check both boxes, but leave us counting on Mayer and Romy at SS.

Although the Nate signing in 2019 was technically a FA signing, we went a pretty long stretch between JD's $110M/5 signing in 2018 and Story's signing in March of 2022 with no major new FA signings. After Story, we have seen some moderate signings, but nothing bigger than Story's or Yoshida's. $140M/6 Story '22 $90M/5 Yoshida '23 Big drop off... (just 9 deals from $10M to $89M in 4 years) $38.5M/2 Giolito '24 $32M/2 Jansen '23 $21.7M/2 Turner '23 (opted out for $15M/1) $21M/1 Buehler '25 $18.3M/2 Sandoval '25 $17.5M/2 Martin '23 $10.1M/1 Chapman '25 $10M/1 Kluber '23 $10M/2 Hendriks '24 Lower Tier: $8M/2 Diekman '22 $7M/1 Duvall '23 and Wacha '22 $5M/1 Hill '22

Good and comprehensive read. Pedey was a great one.

He's got one year of control. That's a tiny window.

I'm not sure we want to use a 40 man slot for one of those guys. Guys like Heineman and Zavala are always out there.

Is DET the only other bidder?

We don't mix it up, like most top 10-12 spenders do. We are stuck in the "one year prove it" deals mode.

The 2 years of control bothered me the most about the trade. The one year of 65+ IP since before his college days was also a concern. I did like Teel, a lot, and I wish we traded Mayer, instead, but it's hard to value catching prospects accurately. Montgomery might be the real prize of the trade. If we extend Crochet at a reasonable cost, I'll feel even better about this deal.

I don't disagree with any of this, and a clear sign might be how we see them rehabbing him in April or May. We seem to be planning on "stretching out" Fulmer, but not being on the 40 complicates things. Assuming Sandoval is placed on the 60 Day IL, day one, we could add Fulmer, at that time. I think we currently view Criswell as the #7, and the rest do look highly questionable as someone you'd pencil in as a half season starter. We do have the chance of a Sandoval 2025 appearance, so maybe the 7th or 8th starter would not be needed to finish out the season. Maybe I'm higher on Fitts, Priester and Dobbins than I should be, but I like the odds on 2 of those 3 to look good enough to get a call to be more than just a spot starter. In 2024, we ended up needing 2 SP'ers to be more than just a spot starter: Houck & Criswell. Both worked out way better than anyone could have imagined, and we cannot count on that success again. I agree that Whitlock could become a consideration, but I think we should strain to give others a chance, before him, assuming they are looking good. It's interesting to note that out of Criswell and Fitts, only Criswell did better in AAA than in MLB. AAA/MLB ERA 1.40/4.08 Criswell 4.55/1.74 Fitts (one could wonder why he got a look) Priester was 4.63 in AAA and 5.44 in MLB. I'd say these 3 would have to be looking pretty bad to not get the call before a healthy Whitlock. However, if they do decide to bring him back "stretched out," then that could easily change. Dobbins is a total wild card. I could see Whitlock being chosen ahead of him.

As much as the Price signing really fizzled out, I felt that signing, at the time was very necessary. Had we signed Scherzer, the year before (and not Pablo & HRam) we wouldn't be talking about him, like we are about Price. I realize that this highlights the hot or miss aspect of signing big name FAs, but there are times when trading for one is not really a viable option. As it turned out, we traded away many top prospects and signed Price to ensure a ring season. One can argue we'd have won without Price or Sale, but that is not a sure thing. That Price signing did burn us in many ways. Not only did it help lower our chances at extending Betts and others, we ended up having to include him in the Betts trade, which lessened the return. I'd certainly take back the Price deal, along with Pablo, HRam and many of the contracts that came afterwards, but sometimes, it just seems like the best way to fill a big hole. Making big trades as some side effects, too.

We used 13 different starters, last year, including 7 starts by our pen (3 Bernardino, 3 Kelly and 1 Chase Anderson.) Hopefully, that will not happen, at all in 2015, but sometimes an emergency situation forces it. We basically used 10 starters, and many felt Houck was going to be the 6th starter, if Gio was not hurt. 33 Crawford, 30 Houck & Bello, 26 Pivetta, 18 Criswell, 6 Wink, 4 Whitlock (before he got hurt) and 4 by Fitts, 3 by Paxton (after a trade) and 1 by Priester (post trade.) IMO, we have 11-12 SP'ers I'd use before Whitlock, and I might try never to start Whitlock, again, unless as an opener type starter. Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Gio, Bello, Crawford AAA: Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins and non 40 man guys Fulmer, Gambrell and Drohan. (AA: Sandlin, Early & Wehunt) I really think the plan should be to work Whitlock back to health in the pen, only.

So many large and long contracts even go bad year 1 or 2. It is frightening. Every time I advocate for signing a big name FA, I worry about the high rate of failure and pretty high rate or near total failure. Perhaps a thread titled "Taking the Big Contract Way Hardly Works" would be more accurate than this one. I think the middle ground may be the best choice, or a mixture of all 3. Here are the largest FA signings in MLB history that were signed more than 3 years ago: 365/10 Betts, 360/10 Trout, 341/10 Lindor, 330/13 Harper, 325/10 Seager, 325/13 Stanton, 324/9 Cole, 300/10 Machado & T Turner 280/11 Bogey, 275/10 ARod '07, 252/10 ARod '00, 245/7 Strasburg & Rendon, 240/10 Pujols & Cano (counting inflation, these two would be much higher, as with some others.) 217/7 Price, 214/9 Fielder, 201/7 Scherzer, 207/6 Greinke, 185/5 deGrom, 184/8 Heywood, 182/7 Bryant, 180/8 Teixeira, 175/7 Semien Some from way back: 160/8 Manny, 152/8 Miggy, 141/9 Helton, 138/6 J Santana, 136/8 Soriano, 126/7 Zito, 126/7 V Wells, 121/8 M Hampton, 120/7 Giambi

Yes, 1.4 to 1.2, but they seem to be heading in different directions. Maybe my #1 reason for liking Bello more is the 58 GS in the last 2 seasons. His career HR/9 is 1.1. His 8 Ks to 3BBs per 9 and 4.14 FIP are not great. His .724 OPSA is underwhelming and the .796 second half is worrisome. Crawford is close on GS'd (56 in 2 yrs) with a 1.5 HR/9 career mark. His K/BB is slightly better than Bello (8.5 to 2.5 per 9.) His 4.35 career FIP is close, too. I guess it could come down to who looks better in ST'ing.

I'll be shocked, if we do. I am pretty certain they think Hendriks and Chapman can both fill the role. I like Slaten and a healthy Whitlock as our 8th inning men, and maybe one could eventually be a decent closer, but IMO, if we got an excellent closer, these 4 would be a very nice set-up crew for the 7th, 8th and 9th innings.