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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    YES! Again, I do not think what a player has done in their previous 20-25 games is what he will do in his next 20-25 ot 140 games. I think the data shows this to be true. I'm all for playing the hot hands and moving people up and down based on streaks, but Devers has a long history of being a little streaky and ending up with fantastic numbers when the year is over. It's not absurd to think devers will snap out of it.
  2. moonslav59
    I'm not sure Criswell is for real, as a SP'er, but most pitchers with a 3.71 ERA and 1.27 WHIP after their first 20 starts would be given a further look in that role. .737 OPS Against (.884 in releif) 86 tOPS+ (122 as RP) 2.84 K/BB (1.74 as RP)
  3. moonslav59
    3 of the last 13 WS winners were the worst or tied for worst team in the playoffs. 1 of the last 13 WS winners was the 3 seed in the league. 9 out of 13 WS winners were the 1 or 2 seed in their league. That looks far from a true crapshoot, to me.
  4. moonslav59
    You know I do not count 14 game sample sizes as predictive. I think he was "ready" last year, when he was called up to AAA, but he got hurt, but that's just me. Right now, I'd rather have him at SS than Rafaela or some sort of timeshare between DHam & Romy. You wouldn't?
  5. moonslav59
    It's only been 3 seasons without the one game play-in. In 2 of those 3 years, the "best team" in one of the tow leagues won. (LAD in '24 and HOU in '22) Texas looked like a crapshoot win, as only 1 other playoff teams had as many or less wins. From 2012 to 2021, when they had the one game play-in and then the same 7 total series in the format, we saw a "best team" win in 5 of the 10 seasons. That is far from a complete crapshoot. in 2 other years, the second best team from a league won (SFG in '12 and HOU in '17 had one less win than CLE) That's 7 in 10 years the 1 or 2 team won out of 5 teams from each league in the "shoot." Only twice did the worst playoff team win the WS, which is in line with "crapshoot odds," since a total crapshoot would predict 1 in 5 or 2 in 10 wins. The 3rd and 4th best teams have had way less than their "fairshare" of WS wins. (The Nats in 2019 being the only one.)
  6. moonslav59
    No, and that is why mayer will stay in AAA. IMO, Mayer is ML ready now, but he is blocked by Story & Campbell.
  7. moonslav59
    There goes the no-no!
  8. moonslav59
    Never. I wouldn't mind seeing him 4th, but not as a demotion, but for more RBIs. (I also see RHBs Campbell or Bregman as a good fits for the 2 slot.)
  9. moonslav59
    It's not a black and white issue. There are degrees on how much of a crapshoot you think it is. There is a ton of data, but how you interpret it is subjective. Do you only look at data from when the playoffs were extended? (The first, second or third time?)
  10. moonslav59
    So many players, especially top prospects have jumped over AAA or played very few games there, and gone on to do well in the bigs. Mayer's gaps in his playing time that ae concerning. Does anyone think that would not be called up, if Story went on the 60 Day IL? I guess we could call up Anthony and play Rafaela at SS, again, but I think Mayer is ready but blocked, right now.
  11. moonslav59
    I realize my position has taken a beating in recent years. I respect those opinions who tink it is more of a crapshoot than I do. In baseball, the best teams do not win as predictably as other sports, and that is the reasothey play 162 games. Well, that and money. Of course we'd have a chance to win the ring, if we make the playoffs, but I don't call a 1-5% chance as "on the verge." I wouldn't coua 6-20% "on the verge," either, maybe even 21-33%.
  12. moonslav59
    I wish I could say it that succinctly.
  13. moonslav59
    I guess thinking 0.7 to 4.9 is not "on the verge" is nonsense.
  14. moonslav59
    1. Duran LF 2. Devers DH 3. Bregman 3B 4. Abreu RF 5. Story SS 6. Casas 1B 7 Campbell CF 8. DHam 2B 8. Narvaez C
  15. moonslav59
    Yes, and that about the cutoff to get a sample size of 150 SP'er (30 teams x 5 pitchers=150.)
  16. moonslav59
    I'm fine with bashing a pitcher for poor fielding, but he pitched well enough to get the out.
  17. moonslav59
    I don't see it that way, and certainly don't think it is nonsensical to think the Dodgers, Padres and Phillies are solid tier above the Sox and other AL teams. We need a lot to go right just to win the AL Pennant, but I also think the Yanks, Tigers, Guardians, Rangers, Astros and Mariners do, too. I think the AL is weak, and I am being consistent when I say I have never been a proponent of the playoffs are a crap shoot and just getting there puts you "on the verge." Fine, if you disagree, but my position is not nonsense.
  18. moonslav59
    I've said over and over, I think the AL is weak, and that we are among the top 5-6 teams in the weaker league. it does not mean I think we are "on the verge of a championship." Nowhere have I said anything close to that. I realize we have not played well. I have agreed to that. Our weak schedule has made our record look better than is should be, perhaps. I think our team is better, on paper than it has looked on the field. You might not agree. Fine.
  19. moonslav59
    He went on the IL in mid June. He had a 3.70 FIP, at that time. It was 4.64 afterwards, much in relief. His first start after coming off the IL really bumped his numbers: 6 IP, 9H, 6 ER , 2BB. He had another big meltdown in releif in mid August (3.1 IP w 9 hits, 6 ER and 4 BB)
  20. moonslav59
    1.35 ranked 118th out of the top 150 SP'ers by IP. That is bottom of the 4th starter tier. He was a 4/5, last year- better than 30 #5's. All you gotta do is be better than a #5 to start in MLB. When you are better than 32 SP'ers out of 150, you deserve to star, somewhere, but again, that is assuming he would repeat 2024's numbers, which I doubt is likely. I'm just going by the numbers, including the ones you used. His 4.15 FIP ranked 88th- good enough to be a #3 tier SP'er. His career 4.45 FIP would have placed him about 110 in 2014- again a #4.
  21. moonslav59
    I disagree. ERA tries to measure pitching not fielding.
  22. moonslav59
    Good point. I forgot about the 2 HBPs. I guess WHHBPIP is too cumbersome.
  23. moonslav59
    4.44 is 4/5 material 2024 as SP only: FIP: 3.32 Houck, 4.07 Pivetta, 4.15 Criswell, 4.19 Bello, 4.65 Crawford To be fair, Criswell was last in xFIP at 4.43 and SIERA at 4.45 ERA- 73 Houck 96 Criswell 97 Pivetta 102 Crawford 105 Bello
  24. moonslav59
    I think Cora and Brez agree, but he did a fine job as a SP'er, last year. (His numbers look worse due to his pen implosions.) Criswell started 18 games for the Sox in '24 (5th most.) His 3.49 ERA was second only to Houck. It was 70 above #3 Pivetta and almost 90 above #4 Crawford's ERA. Maybe he had some luck, but still... WHIP 1.235 is decent (4th out of our top 5- ahead of Bello) OPS Against: .617 Houck .702 Crawford .724 Bello .726 Criswell .726 Pivetta 2025's OPSA: .439 Crochet, .614 Fitts (IL) .695 Buehler, .707 Dobbins, .836 Newcomb, .902 Houck, .939 Bello I'm not thinking those 2024 numbers are repeatable, but he'd be starting on several other teams, right now.
  25. moonslav59
    True, and on the other hand, we are just 4 games ahead of 14th in the weaker league- the AL. (MN & BAL ar 9-15.)
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