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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Agreed. There are high and higher priced players out there that are still very good players. We could add one or two, very soon or at the deadline to help, now, and then also spend heavily this winter. For the past couple winters, I've been saying "I'll believe it when I see it," but I did see it, this past winter, so I guess I have more hope the money will be spent. Spent wisely? That's another debate.
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I'm not sure I can believe anything I read, these days, but there is a report that multiple sources confirmed that Devers was upset at Campbell for volunteering to play 1B, and that this undermined him. Either way, I think more was going on than we are aware of.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Here is a look at the 2026 AAV budget: 31.7 Bregman (if no opt out) 28.3 Crochet 23.3 Story 18.0 Yoshida 10.3 Hicks 9.2 Bello 9.1 Sandoval 8.0 Duran (club option taken) 7.5 Campbell 6.3 Rafaela 4.7 Whitlock I'm assuming Bregman returns, Buehler, Gio & Hendriks do not return for their option years. With so many mutual options and various buyouts, I'm not sure what the cost will the lux tax budget. The total for these 11 players plus buyout should be about $158M AAV. The tax line is $244M, so let's see how much the winter spending budget might be. $18M Player Benefits + $1.7M Arb Pool brings us to about $178M. Arb guesses: $5M Houck (2 of 3) $4.0M Crawford, $1.4M Wong (1 of 3) 1.3 Bernardino (1 of 4) 1.3 Casas (1 of 3) 1.0 Kelly (1 of 3)= $14M plus $8M remaining 26 and 40 man roster brings us to about $200M. That leaves us $44M to spend and stay at the tax line. That might get us Cease and Helsley. I probably missed something. -
For once, we started a season with rotation depth. This year, we have really needed it. We even ended up giving Newcomb a shot, since we had so many guys out at once. We are doing this without our best pitcher, last year (Houck). We are doing this with zero IP from our IP leader, last year (Crawford.) We are doing this with our highest AAV given to a SP'er since Sale (Buehler) having an ERA north of 5. We are doing this without Pivetta, who was our rock for several years. We haven't even started our best rotation depth pitchers from 2024 (Criswell) at all, this year. (Criswell had a 3.49 ERA in 18 GS in '24.) Crochet was a major get. Bello is finally coming into his own. Dobbins came out of nowhere. Gio has had 3 really nice starts in his last 5 starts, and one was pretty good- the one where he was yanked with 2 outs in the 5th. All we need is Buehler, Houck, Crawford or Sandoval to give us a boost from the 5 slot, and of course, continued good pitching from the 4 guys listed above.
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Notice how Bogey is rarely mentioned, anymore. Tracking his OPS.... .939 in '19 .867 in '20 .863 in '21 .833 in '22 .790 in '23 .688 in '24 .625 in '25 To be fair, his OPS+ has only dropped since 118 w BOS in 2022. (110>79>50) There was a time fans were bummed we traded Beni. Many were bummed we let Jacoby bolt. To a lesser extent, some were upset after O'Neill started off 2025 hot. Lots of examples like this one.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
We are now holding the last WC slot by a half game over MN & SEA. We are 1.5 behind TOR and 3.0 behind TBR. Don't look, now, but the Yanks lost, tonight, and we are 5.5 GB them! Whodathunk this 10 games ago? -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Sox Injury Updates (MLB.com expected return date) Burdi (June 18) on rehab w Woo Abreu (June 20) Taking swings Houck: (early July) to Minor League rehab June 18 Bregman (July) Ultrasound shows considerable improvement. Slaten (July) Isn't progressing as hoped. Sandoval (possibly after ASB) Began throwing off mound. Yoshida (after All-Star Break) Throwing w more intensity Murphy (after ASB) on rehab, now Hendriks (July at earliest) Started playing catch Crawford (July/Aug) sore wrist prolonged expected pen session. Casas (2026) -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
A look at possible salary dump trade additions (and a few others) that might actually help. Here are teams the farthest out of a WC slot: 26 COL: I don't see anyone. -14 CWS: Nope -12 PIT M Keller ($55M/3) & D Bednar (1 arb left/$6M in '25, but of course, Skenes would be the grand prize.) -11 MIA Alcantara ($38M/2) is having a tough year. -10 WSH M Gore (2 arbs left) & K Finnegan ($5.3M rental) -9 OAK: Nope -8 ATL Sale ($22M in '25 + option) S Murphy ($45M/3) & R Iglesias ($16M rental) -6 BAL Eflin ($18M rental) Sugano ($13M rental) Borderline -3 AZ Monty ($22M rental) E Suarez ($15M rental) Gallen ($13M rental) Naylor ($11M rental) -3 STL (S Gray $25M/1 + option) Helsley ($8M rental) -
I thought the Rys Hoskins comment was interesting, but I guess as long as Toro and Romy are bridging us back to Casas, maybe we look for some expensive pitcher... but a good one.
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I thought the same thing about the GM jargon, "repurpose."
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That made the whole thing even worse. Then, they failed to replace Porcello & ERod's money. JD and Nates... and on and on...
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ERA- makes adjustments based on park factor and other influences. wRC+ is weighted Runs Created, which also factors in park and other influences. Both are better indicators of how well our team is doing when compared to others. I agree our D is better. I thought we were bottom 3-5 in 2024 and are maybe 20th to 23rd, this year. I'd say our O is about 10th and our pitching about 15th. I'd be okay with 10-15-20.
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MLB.com has an article on reactions from other team execs. Here are some quotes... Some of this stuff is similar to what we have said, other statements offer some new insights. “Is this trade real?” I think history would show that if you could get out of every long deal after two years, you’d be in great shape,” an AL executive said. “I think it gives Boston the opportunity to reset and repurpose a lot of money,” “On the surface, it feels like a relationship gone bad that was mismanaged from the beginning,” an AL exec said. “This is probably a welcome outcome.” “It’s a pretty good return considering that Boston didn’t have many options,” an AL executive said. “I think there was a path to get him to first base -- maybe in 2026 -- but that would have required some serious diplomacy on [chief baseball officer Craig] Breslow’s part. And in the meantime, they had nowhere to go with [DH Masataka] Yoshida. I was surprised they got real talent back while moving all of that money.” “The Red Sox are worse today, but I wouldn’t want to touch the Devers contract,” an AL executive said. “Harrison could be solid. It’s a good deal for the Red Sox in the long run. That’s a long time for a DH to be under contract.” “It’s crazy for a team to trade a player in year two of a 10-year deal – and maybe even crazier for another team to take on the entire remainder of that player’s contract, particularly when he’s been so outspoken about what positions he is and isn’t willing to play,” an NL executive said. Devers’ contract is already underwater. Giving up Harrison and Tibbs in order to take on an underwater contract is tough. This will look fine for San Francisco in the short-term, but has the strong potential to crush them when paired with Adames’ contract a few years from now.” “What the general public never factors into their knee-jerk trade reactions is what the teams trading away the large contract can now go do with those dollars,” an NL executive said. “Boston should go trade for someone like [Brewers first baseman] Rhys Hoskins right now. Then the deal takes on a whole new dimension.” “They definitely got some good players with upside, so when you combine those guys with whatever they get with the repurposed Devers money, I think the Red Sox did well,” an NL executive said. “But far more important than the player return is the fact that they were able to move Devers and all of his money. They just signed him, so to have changed their mind on that kind of commitment so quickly really means that they felt they had to move him, which is a really difficult spot to be in. They moved quickly, kept it quiet, and pulled it off.”
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