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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    We have "played worse" than our record shows, now, is what I meant. Yes, I think we are a playoff team, on paper, but have played like crap against weaker teams than we have in past years. I like this team.
  2. moonslav59
    Nice game, for sure. Good to see Casas with a dinger and Rafaela get on base 3 times. Bello got the job done, and the last 3 RP'ers were pretty much lights out. Hey, and this was a winning team we beat. NYY, BAL, TBR & TOR all lost! The Sox are a half game from 1st place: 14-10 NYY 14-11 BOS 12-12 TOR 9-13 BAL 9-14 TBR We have the 5th best record in the AL and hold the second WC berth, 25 games into the season (just over 15% of the games.) Not bad, considering our D has sucked, 3 of our top 6 SP'ers are on the IL, not counting Sandoval, and a bunch of players we were counting on have been in slumps.
  3. moonslav59
    I'd put Chapman 2nd and Weissert ahead of Wink.
  4. moonslav59
    You could be right. When you pitch more than 1 IP, like he did in 9 of his first 22 outings, it's hard to gauge what is overuse. Pre- All Star game, he pitched in 33 games in 96 days. He pitched back-to-back days 5 times with only one time involving going into the second inning in one of those games. He had 8 days off then 5 off before his first meltdown game right after the AS break. He fell apart on July 19th and never really recovered. 8.05 ERA and 6.48 FIP He was shut down on SEP 10. He did have a 4 game stretch before that SEP 10 game (3 IP 1 H 0BB 3K and 0ER.)
  5. moonslav59
    What was Ryan's spin rate?
  6. moonslav59
    Doesn't it seem a bit contradictory, when some of us claimed we were better than our record showed, due to the unbalanced schedule and playing so many ALE teams, and Red shot down that point? Now, the weak schedule says we are worse than our record shows? I'd say you can't have it both ways. That being said, I do think we were better back then, and are worse than our record shows, now. At least this position is consistent.
  7. moonslav59
    Better to say they lost 50% of their top 6 starters, on paper.
  8. moonslav59
    Abreu has not proven he can hit LHPs well enough to break out of the platoon role. Duran has not done great vs lefties, either, so maybe he can get a few days off as Abreu or Rafaela get to play vs some LH'd starters. I think Anthony needs to play near FT to be worth the call up, and I mean almost totally FT. When Devers gets a day off, we could DH an OF'er (Duran or Anthony.)
  9. moonslav59
    I see the point on Bello, but if he had/has a couple really good years, the whole idea can shift to it looking good. He's making $2.5, this year, which would have been pre-arb. $6M in '26 and $8.5M in '27 seems like very high arb contracts. $16M in '28 is where it really starts looking very sketchy and risky. $19M in '29 with a $1M buyout for '30 is not a killer. I'm hopeful he can make this deal look good. He might have a better chance at proving it that Rafaela.
  10. moonslav59
    Duran has played CF more than LF, so far. He does not have a strong arm, especially from the triangle, but fangraphs has these arm scores for CF only: +3.0 Rafaela +1.8 Duran I don't think the drop off on defense in CF as as big as many seem to think it would or might be. The possibility of huge gains on offense with Anthony over Rafaela is just too high for me to say no to.
  11. moonslav59
    I hope people don't think I dislike Rafaela, because I like Anthony better. I love great up-the-middle defense. I also think Rafaela can improve his offense. I'm just not sure if he can reach the .700 to .725 range for a full season. I think he can get enough playing time with an Anthony call-up to still show he can hit .700+. He's had 700+ PAs, already. That's more than Dalbec had, before he lost his job, but of course Dalbec was a horrible defender. Casas had about 150 more PAs, than Rafaela, before this year. With no Sox OF'er, other than Refsnyder losing team control for 3 more years, it seems like a squeeze is present, but since RAF can play a decent 2B and OK SS & 3B, he should have a good shot at earning back a FT job.
  12. moonslav59
    Yes. I have had discussions with him over the deal, and it seems his main issue was about why the hurry? (Same with Bello.)
  13. moonslav59
    Defensive metrics are famous for roasting Fenway's LF'ers, but here are the metrics for 2024-2025: Duran LF: +3 DRS/ +1 OAA (798 innings) CF: +17 DRS/ +6 OAA (825 innings) Note: Rafaela is +16/+8 in 802 innings. There is nothing to indicate Duran is not a plus defender in CF. (He was before 2024.)
  14. moonslav59
    He's making $1M, this year and has a .4 fWAR and .6 bWAR. So far, so good with the contract. RAF makes $2M, next year: that should be oksay. Maybe, in 2027, when he makes $3.5M, it might be a little waste of money, if he's still here and playing just a strict utility role. The real issue might begin in 2028, and that assumes he has not improved beyond utility. ($5.5M) 2029: $7.5M (with salary inflation, maybe this is not all that bad.) 2030: $10.5M and 2031 at $13M look pretty bad, as of now. There is also a $4M buyout on the $16M club option for 2032, making that last year, essentially and possibly a $17M salary. I'm not worried about his deal. It's not like the Price, Yoshi or Story deals.
  15. moonslav59
    His one point in his favor is the +.4 fWAR, which is 5th best on the Sox everyday player list. That projects to an fWAR of over 3.0. That is a pretty high bar set for Anthony. That being said, I think we can play Anthony near enough to FT and still allow Duran, Abreu and Rafaela to get enough playing time to be impact players (or not.) It's Refsnyder that would likely lose almost all playing time, unless he play RF vs RHPs- not Rafaela, as I suggested. Maybe trade Refsnyder. We will already have LH'd DH in AAA (Yoshida) and Ref has no remaining options.
  16. moonslav59
    I'd be fine with that idea, as my suggestion would be full blown "musical chairs." We all know Cora loves scheduling days off, so Rafaela could play SS, 2B and 3B on those days off. He could PR (as DHam would be demoted to make room for Anthony) and provide late inning defensive replacement often enough. Rafaela will still have ample playing time to earn back a FT role.
  17. moonslav59
    Well said, as always. I think if the Sox did not like Casas, they would have traded him, even without Yoshi attached. The guy has been a very good hitter, except for a few short stretches. This one happened to be from day 1, so his numbers look awful. I like MVP's suggested 3 week leash.
  18. moonslav59
    I'm 100% behind calling Anthony up, the second he deemed well enough to play OF well. While we have no idea if Anthony will measure up to expectations, but I do think the odds are in his favor he can outperform Rafaela v RHPs and Ref/Raf vs LHPs, whichever we chose to sit/play for Abreu's platoon. Here is a list of the recent #1 prospects: '25 Sasaki '24 J Holliday '23 G Henderson '22 Rutschman & Witt '20-'21 W Franco '19 Vladdy '18 Acuna & Ohtani '17 Beni '16 Seager '15 K Bryant This list does not "set the odds" for Anthony, but come on.... Give the guy a chance, as soon as he can play OF not DH.
  19. moonslav59
    I think the value of Y Rod was just too much to turn down. We still have better rotation depth than just about every team if not all of them.
  20. moonslav59
    Maybe they held out, thinking a better offer might come in. Hard to know. As it turned out, the comp pick returns for ERod (Anthony) and Bogey (Campbell) turned out better than Verdugo, Wong and the syndrome.
  21. moonslav59
    I'm a huge believer in catchers making a big difference on D. If Narvaez is way better than Murphy, I would not make the trade.
  22. moonslav59
    I'm fine with Duran in CF and Anthony in LF. vs LHPs, I'd like to see Rafaela in CF, Anthony in RF and Duran in LF, but there is pushback to musical chair defense. I recognize the drop off on D, but it may not be as great as many think it might be. The uptick in O looks larger, to me. Just my opinion. No sense of patronizing to me. I respect your opinion.
  23. moonslav59
    Sounds about right. He could end up earning his way back by hitting in AAA.
  24. moonslav59
    Top 6-7 catchers are very valuable in MLB. I know Duran might have a higher WAR value, but OF'ers are easier to find. From 2023-2025 (600+ PAs) these are the top OPS by catchers: .817 Wm Contreras .808 Y Diaz .794 Will Smith .793 Sean Murphy .782 Ryan Jeffers (not good on D) .763 S Perez (getting old) .762 O'Hoppe .754 Realmuto .741 G m oreno All the rest are under .731 (Wong) There are 11 OF'ers with an OPS over .817 and Duran is not one of them. I might trade Duran for Murphy and cash, but I'm not so sure. I would not expect a top RP'er to make me say yes.
  25. moonslav59
    I agree. 200 games and 724 PAs, so far. How much longer should he get?
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