moonslav59

That is a major reason for many losses, especially the close ones, and I don't mean to minimize the influence our pen has had on too many losses, but the defense has kept games close than they should have been, and forced more save opportunities than there otherwise might have been. Poor defense has also played a role in several actual blown saves, too. Poor timely hitting has been a factor in there being too many close games and losses. We all felt our pen was the weakest area. Several of us felt the defense had improved, but realized improving from a bottom 3 team on D to maybe bottom 10-15 might not be enough. Instead, we still seem like a bottom 5 to 9 club- not middle 10, as some hoped we could get to. Maybe that's why it sticks out to me, more. Plus, I know I have a bias against poor or even mediocre defense, as I've admitted before. The whole "save" stat bothers me, but it is an indicator for what is working and what isn't, and our pen has not been a plus. The league average is a 64% save rate, and only Chapman beats that at 92% (12 Sv and 1 BS.) Chapman has also inherited 5 runners and none scored. Weissert has blown 2 of 3. (12 holds and just 1 of 14 IF have scored.) Slaten has 2 of 3 BS, as well. (4 holds and 1 of 10 IR scored.) Whitlock is 0-4, Wilson 0-3 and Kelly 0-1. Whitlock has 5 holds and 5W-0L. He's allowed 2 of 4 IR to score. Wilson has 8 holds and has allowed 5 of 15 IR to score. Bernardino has allowed 7 of 19 IR to score. The league avg for IRS is 30%. Only Chapman (0%), Slaten (10%) and Weistter (7%) are below that number. All in all, here are the numbers: Sv Sit/ Svs +Holds/BS (SV+Hold %) 14/13/1 Chapman (93%) 15/13/2 Weissert (87%) 11/8/2 Wilson (73%) 1 no SV, Hold or BS 10/5/4 Whitlock (50%) 1 no SV, Hold or BS 9/7/2 Slaten (78%) 3/1/1 Kelly (33%) 1 no SV, Hold or BS 1/1/0 Bernardino (100%)

There are many games to be played between now and the deadline. I hope we are buyers, but we'll see.

Great article and follow-ups, except one. I have a much better understanding, now and more faith in how close WAR comes to measuring how good pitchers are than I had before. Thanks.

You should consider park influences when you look at runs scored and allowed, but we are 5th in runs (347) scored (4 behind AZ, but 20 behind NYY.) We have allowed 328 runs (23rd) and have a +19 run differential, which would normally lead to a comfortable winning record. We are 14th in run differential but 19th in winning %. We've allowed 41 unearned runs to score, but this does not capture all the runs allowed by poor defense not called errors. I would not be a bit surprised, if our defense has allowed a run a game to score vs what the best defensive team might have allowed. Just unearned alone has allowed .58 runs/game. OPS is also park influenced, but we are 6th in OPS at .750 (.005 behind NYM.) We are tied for 9th in wRC+ (105,) so we seem to be a top 10 team on offense. We are 20th in ERA (4.03) but ar at 95 in ERA- (15th) We are 14th in FIP (3.91) but 12th in xFIP (3.92.) I think it's safe to say we are about dead in the middle with our pitching, but again, the defense helped get us that low.

You gotta have some skills to beat the better teams, but also some sort of lack of focus or something else that causes let-downs vs the worse teams. It's a long season, so many we can fix the letdowns. We've also lost a ton of close games. Perhaps it's just been more bad luck than good, and maybe it evens out, as we go forward.

I've not been a believer in the Yanks from December, and I never thought one guy could carry a team like Judge has. I never expected Goldy to be a locks, nor Grisham and Rice to be A-Roni. No Cole, but they have 3 SP'ers leading the AL in GS w 14, although one, Warren has a 4.86 ERA. All this, with their closer having a 5.68 ERA. They are showing there are some different ways to get to a 42-26 record. Maybe this series will tell us more about who the Yanks are than the Sox.

Tonight looked like it might be yet one more hard luck late loss. We've been here, before. Maybe this time, we can get on a roll- for real. YES!!! One at a time!

I hate to get my hopes up, as it is usually a sign a tough loss is coming up, next game, but the landscape has changed, quickly. 5 teams are 2 to 2.5 behind the last WC slot with us. We are 2 GM CLE & MN for that last slot, but we are also just 3 GB TBR and 4GB TOR. Hell, we're 5 GB HOU. What a weird year!

Okay, so sellers but buyers w PIT.

I was gonna mention that.

He's a rookie.

Narvaez for ROY!

Monegro left the game injured, tonight. Anyone know what happened? Aita got the tough-luck loss w GRE (6IP 1H 1ER 2BB 6K)

See answers inserted in your response. I would not call up a top 3 prospect to play 50-60% of the time. They need to play 85%+. I would not play a valuable vet 50-60%, when his value for another team playing 85% is higher and thus a trade must be made.

I like em all, too. To me Rafaela seems like "the one" to trade, but we mostly hear Duran ("sell high") and Abreu ("platoon.") On the platoon aspect of Abreu, his numbers vs LHPs are worse than Rafaela's, but if you played both FT at 600 PAs, Abreu would have a higher OPS, so keeping Rafaela for offense reasons does not ring true, to me. Since I truly believe Anthony will be better than all 3 of our vets, I don't trade him.

Pitt is not a team that buys a vet w 2 months of control.

McGuire was a vet, so not a sell. It was more of a salary dump vet for vet deal. I'd call that deadline a sell, due to the Vaz trade, and the others were so minor and or involved us getting prospects, that I just can't call it even an attempt at buying.

We got prospects with him and paid part of his deal. It was neither buy nor sell and not really both.

You didn't say "big names," but you really call trading scrub prospects for Pham and then getting scrub prospects w Hosmer "buying?" That was my point. It's a huge stretch to call that or trading for Urias and Llovera "buying." Do you honestly consider that buying? It's almost like picking up guys off waivers.

Are you seriously calling trade for Luis Urias and Llovera attempts at buying? I wouldn't call trading for Hosmer and Pham a "buy deadline," either. Am I missing a big name we traded for in '22 or '23? Forget a big name, am I missing even a decent name?

The Sell idea has a lot of merit, and for once, we have some guys with decent trade value: The 1 year guys: Bregman has option years and is on the IL, but if he is healthy of close to it, he'd bring back a nice return. (Remember, when we signed Schwarber, he was not ready to play.) Chapman, assuming he is still going strong in 6 weeks, would bring back a decent return. Buehler would not bring back much, right now, but if healthy and doing well, he could. Wilson could get a decent prospect- same with Refsnyder. Giolito and Hendriks are long shots at bringing anything back, except maybe salary relief for JH. Log-jammed vets: Story & Yoshida are like Gio & Hendriks, only more expensive and more years left to go. Casas would be selling low, IMO. Duran, Abreu or Rafaela to make room for Anthony and maybe/eventually Jh Garcia. Toro and or Romy? I'd keep both around as having more future value to us than anyone else. Wong, Wink, Sogard and DHam will not bring much of anything back, but some team may want/need their services enough to give us something, and help us free up a roster slot for another guy.

The only time, we sort of bought AND sold was when we "sold" Vaz for Abreu & E Valdez, while making a bunch of minor "buys" like Pham, Hosmer and a sideways move of Diekman for R McGuire. I'm not sure I'd call this a Buy/Sell deadline, but it's the closest one, IMO. 2020: Total SELL: Workman & Hembree for Pivetta & Seabold was sort of sideways, except we gave up rentals for a younger MLB pitcher and a prospects, Pillar for J Wallace, Osich for PTBNL & Moreland for Potts & J Rosario. 2021: Total BUY: Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber, plus a couple minor buys like Chavis for A Davis and Scherff for Robles. Two, later additions helped, alot: Travis Shaw off waivers & signing Iggy in SEPT. 2022: See above 2023: BUY??? Scrubs like Llovera & Luis Urias? Sell??? (perhaps about to be DFA'd) Kike for prospects N Robertson J Hagenman. This was a clear DO NOTHING deadline by Bloom- not a buy, not a sell and not a buy & sell.

I'm with notin, here. Sell Story (+ $$$) and an OF'er not named Anthony, most likely for prospects or a RP & a prospect. Then, buy, using chosen prospects, not named Anthony, Campbell or Mayer, unless we get someone like Crochet with 2+ years of team control and the ability to extend. I'd look to keep Arias, but to get a real good pitcher without trading one of the big 3, he probably has to go. (We have to keep once from Mayer and Arias, IMO.) There farther away prospects don't bring back what they used to, but some have been moving up the farm ranks and are not so far away, anymore. Perales (AA) is on the IL, but he still has good trade value. Tolle, Clarke & Valera are all in A+, now. The AA guys are lower ranked: Early, Sandlin & Monegro. Arias (A+) & Romero (AA) have real trade value, too. The AAA guy with 40 man roster status is Jh Garcia, who is raking, right now. Unless we plan to play him at 1B/DH, he's essentially blacked. If we end up trading Duran, Abreu or Rafaela, then we could keep him in the system. Bleis (A+) and Cespedes (A-) might be the last two prospects holding significant trade value, right now- maybe Justin Gonzalez (A-) too. Add-ins might include Jordan, Uberstine & Penrod (AAA,) Ehrhard, Mullins or Wehunt in AA and Taylor, Jo Garcia & Paez (A+) If there is one thing our farm has, it is quantity of promising prospects, along with a few that just joined the top 100 or are looking to come close.

It would be great for several of our players to deserve winning the award, but for a few, not to win it.

Woo has won 9 of 10. Mullins threw 1 hit 5 innings and has an ERA of 2.45 for POR. Holobetz went 5.1 allowing 1 ER in GRE's win. Bleis 2-4 and now at .822. GRE has won 7 of 10 and leads their division, so far. SAL is 10 games under .500, and FCL is 3 under.