moonslav59

Can't help but think of Pedey.

True, and the pinky injury might be a factor, too.

To add to my last post on Durbin: I also project Bregman will end his career with a near .725 to .775 OPS and near GG defense. The salary differential is astounding.

Durbin's defense alone should correct any tailspins. I think he'll be fine. If I had to guess, I think he'll be a career .725 to .775 batter with near GG defense.

A lot of the playoff roster choices have to do with recent performance, and 18 days remain to the season, but Bello has struggled of late. Last 2 games: 9.82 ERA 5.50 last 5 games. Another consideration is who might be better than Bello. RP OPS Against in last... (some tiny to small sample sizes here) 28 days: .222 Whitlock .250 Slaten .421 Chapman .459 Miller .593 Olds .703 Weissert .746 Bello .825 Guerrero .838 Moran _______________ last 14 days... .222 Whitlock .467 Gamboa .508 Weissert .583 Miller .611 Chapman .635 Olds .868 Bello .882 Guerrero .935 Moran ______________ last 7 days 1.800 Guerrero 1.160 Bello .901 Olds

I'm hopeful Durbin's recent 14 games OPS of .451 is just a glitch. .556 last 22 games. .598 last 26 games. .679 since AUG 1st (34 games)

I'm fine with using Story at SS, now. I'm not for 2027. He is "especially awful" on defense at SS, but hopefully his bat will outweigh it, this year, and we won't see him at SS next year.

Yes! We have done great with many of the comp picks, but the 20th (Vitek) and 39 (Ranaudo) did not materialize. We did trade Ranaudo for Robbie Ross, who gave us two nice seasons ('15-'16) : 116 IP 106 Hits + 43 BB (not good) 109 Ks 3.67 ERA (123 ERA+) 1.5 bWAR and 0.9 fWAR

18 games to go. We are 79-65. We were .... 79-65 in 2025 81-63 in '21 98-46 in '18 87-57 in '13, '07 and '04 (84-60 in 2003)

I think Tracy goes Suarez game 2, but to me, if we are down 0-1, I don't want Tolle being the guy never starting a playoff game in 2026.

I hate thinking about a sweep, but this is kinda unavoidable. I'm not saying any of us aren't thinking "take one game at a time," and certainly the Sox better be thinking this way, but the Angels are a very bad team. The Sox do have a history of beating the good teams and losing to the bad ones to some extent. This year: 3-0 LAD 6-0 CWS 5-2 DET (a +50 run diff team) 2-1 MIL but.... 4-9 v TOR (63-68 vs everybody else) 1-2 COL 1-5 HOU (not a bad team, but 68-70 vs everyone else) 1-2 CIN

I don't disagree, but there is a force within me that is screaming "No Story at SS." I think Arias might be in BOS now, if not for the pending work stoppage and fear he'd miss development time. That might be a stretch. I get the argument that we should not pencil in prospects to FT positions, as the Campbell experiment highlighted. The Anthony choice was correct, but the injury ruined those plans. (We did keep Duran as insurance, though.) I'm not a Story hater. I like him at SS, and even DH would not be horrible. I'm not a Yoshida hater, either, despite leading the site in suggested Yoshida trade scenarios. (I also may have led the site in Duran trade suggestions starting many years ago.) Yoshida at DH vs RHPs is probably better than paying him to play somewhere else. Story at 2B/DH is probably better than paying him to play somewhere else. Duran has no guaranteed contract, so trading him does not add the financial aspect the other two guys do. Offering Duran and arb would likely cost us $7-10M, so I'd say that should not occur. I'm not sure anyone wants him at his projected arb cost. I'd be okay with Yoshida as the FT DH (without a platoon,) but with two excellent batters vs LHPs (Romy & Jones) I'd platoon Yoshida at DH. If we could greatly improve the 2B defense, and I'm not sure Story is way better than Mead on 2B defense, then that could be a factor in making the choice on who DHs: Mead or Yoshida, or at least Mead at DH v L and Yoshida v R. What's wrong with this reasoning? Also, the years of proven production from Romy vs LHPs cannot be ignored. Jones may not have yet proven he's the next Refsnyder.

They might have felt the choice for surgery was 40-49%, and that would scare me.

I think after spending $21M on Buehler, having 11-12 SP'ers in the winter of 2024-25, but still needing to trade for Dustin May, convinced Brez 11-12 in the minimum needed. He not only kept the number at 11-12, but he increased the quality of those 11-12, on paper. '25>'26 Crochet = Crochet Houck < Gray Giolito < Suarez Buehler <Early Bello = Bello Crawford = Crawford Fitts < Tolle Newcomb/Sandoval = Sandoval Priester (traded)/Dobbins< Bennett Criswell < Oviedo Early/Tolle/Drohan/Fulmer/Wink> Houck/Uberstine/Burgos... __________________ Here is a cleaner version: Crochet, Houck, Crawford, Bello, Early, Tolle = same (We knew Houck was out, but we expected more IP from Early & Tolle) Gray >>>>> Buehler Suarez >> Giolito Bennett>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Fitts Oviedo/Sandoval = Priester/Dobbins

In a vacuum, I'd still prefer Mead and Anthony over Yoshida, but like I said, it's not just about DH. It also matters who plays LF, 2B or wherever you take someone away to be the DH. Is that guy better than Yoshida, and does improved defense make up for any loss on offense. BTW, I did put question marks next to my suggested options. The Gasper/Jones and Casas/Romy platoon solutions are long shots, although Romy and Jones have the numbers to support platooning with Yoshida at DH v LHPs.

Getting close to game time, so here it is. Bello gets the "rid me of the yips" start. Line-up: 1. Anthony DH 2. Gasper 1B 3. Rutschman C 4. Abreu RF 5. Story SS 6. Durbin 3B 7. Duran LF 8. IKF 2B 9. White CF

8 of 13 is pretty impressive.

I might go... 1. Gray 2. Tolle 3. Suarez with a quick hook, if needed, and Bennett on stand by.

Certainly could happen, but I feel if it was thought to be this bad, they'd have done the surgery. Not doing so gives me hope it's not as bad as it could have been. What a waste of a year plus, if ends up getting it next spring or summer.

Here is what I'd like to see in 2027: 1. L Anthony LF 2. R Mead 2B/DH 3. L Abreu RF 4. R Contreras 1B 5. S Rutshcman C 6. R Rafaela CF 7. L Yoshida/ R Story 2B 8. R Durbin 3B 9. R Arias SS Bench: Wong, Story, Jones & Soggard (Maybe White, who is out of options and no Yoshida?) Duran is traded. AAA Depth: C: Jo Garcia/Baez 1B: Casas/Brannon 2B: Seigler/Rodgers 3B: Romero/Winnay SS: Godbout/Liendo OF: Campbell, Gonzales, Eaton, Ward, Gutierrez

Not at all. I suggested he might be part of a platoon option. FYI, I have Mead pencilled in as the starting 2Bman for 2027. You asked what other options were out there, so I provided some. I never claimed they were better options, but this 2B choice is not made in a vacuum. Mead is the better 2Bman, but he's also the better DH, so you have to look at who plays 2B, if Mead DHs and who plays DH if Mead plays 2B. I agree for offense, Yoshida/Duran/Romy/Casas and others look better than Seigler/Sogard/Monasterio at 2B, but maybe not Story. I'm not writing Trevor off just yet. (I'm also not saying he's better than Mead on O or even Yoshida: he's just an option.) The Gasper/Romy platoon was a stretch. I admit. An Anthony/Romy DH platoon could be very nice, with Anthony playing LF when not at DH. I didn't mention Jones as part of a LF or DHH platoon, either. he might be more deserving than Gasper. (Different splits.) I also posted Gasper's pretty bad splits before 2026, and suggested this could all be a mirage. In no way am I handing him even a solid platoon role for 2027. I'm just listing the options you asked for.

Here is a look at the 2023 season-ending pitching roster that Brez inherited: Sale, Bello, Pivetta (1 year of control left,) Houck & Crawford Jansen, Martin (both with just 1 year of control,) Whitlock, Winckowski, Bernardino, Schreiber, Murphy & Joely AAA/MLB depth: Drohan, B Walter, Barraclough, Van Belle, G Gambrell & Rio Gomez Kelly, Nick Robertson, Llovera, Ort, Weiss, Jacques, J Garza, Mata, Guerrero, V Santos & Gillaspie I have to admit, I kinda chuckled looking at this depth. AA had Wikelman, Dobbins, Hoppe, Bastardo, Troye & Olds. The top pitching prospects on soxprospects.com were: 7 Perales 9 Wikelman 15 Drohhan 20 Monegro 24 Elmer Rodriguez 25 Luis Guerrero, 26 Angel Bastardo, 27 Mata & 28 Hoppe

Nice post. I'd add 2 major pitching trades not mentioned.... Perhaps the most long-lasting good pitching trade was Perales for Bennett. Perhaps the worst was trading Sale for Grissom and minor salary relief. It's also interesting how he trade for then traded away Harrison, Priester & Fajardo. He's also traded away a numerous amount of his own drafted pitchers, including Eyanson, Witherspoon, Clarke, Aita, Hansen & Galle. He included an IFA pitchers in a trade, too: Travieso. He traded Uberstine, this summer, who he inherited from Bloom. The amount of pitcher turnover within the Sox system has been astounding. All in less than 3 full seasons!

I'm not pencilling in Gasper to even a locked platoon role for 2027, but that was a viable option at DH. Other players could beat him out at DH platoon v RHPs (Yoshida, Duran or Seigler.) I've heard Mead is not the greatest defensive 2Bman, and we have a 1Bman, so DH is one option. Of course, that would also depend on having someone at 2B worth playing and adding to the team value. (Some have suggested he be moved to LF.) Many of us believe Arias will be the wire-to-wire SS in 2027, so that leaves a slew of choices at 2B, most notably... EEEEK!..... Story, but also including platoon situations that look very promising. I'm not a big Story fan, once his D declined. I also don't think he's as bad a hitter as some think he is. He led the team in HRs, RRBI and SBs in 2025, and he finished the season stronger than he started it. I think he's be okay to good at 2B defense. I would not just assume he's our wire-to-wire 2Bman, but he might have another good year in him. Some 2B platoon options, if Mead is the near FT DH. v R: Story, Seigler (Mead on occasion) I'm not sure Seigler can maintain a near .800 OPS v R. v L: Story, Romy, Sogard & Monasterio (The last 3 have very nice numbers v L) It's easy for us to sit back and say Story, Yoshida, Duran and Casas will be off the 2027 roster, but I could see 3 returning and would bet on 2 or more.

I used the term "magic number" in a whole different way. To me, we are already in the playoffs- 100%. I should have explained myself better. To win a ring, a WC team needs to win 13 games. That's my "magic" number.