moonslav59

Quentin Priester has a nerve issue is his shoulder. The injury is “in that thoracic outlet syndrome family.” -MLBTR

Huh? You're probably glad we waited on suspects like Betts & Bogey, too.

soxprospects.com now has Sandoval and Crawford starting the season on the IL, along with Romy & Casas. They've been all over the map on Sandoval & Crawford. Assuming they are right, and with the addition of Coulombe, is this the opening day 26? Crochet, Suarez, Gray, Bello, Oviedo Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Coulombe, Moran, Watson, Kelly Narvaez & Wong (Thaiss?) Contreras, Mayer, Durbin, Story, IKF & Monasterio Anthony, Rafaela, Abreu, Duran, Yoshida

Huh?

You do realize that on the back end the numbers might be $195 AAV and $263 in payroll.

If it's good for the Rays, why not the Sox? How about the Braves? They do this a lot. It depends on how well or poorly these kids do. KC has 2 months under his belt. Can we wait a while to judge his deal?

Good post, and I'll respond to this part, since this gets to the heart of the matter. These early extensions are made to hedge against the possibility that the young arb or prearb player will do so well that they will "price themselves" to a point where we might lose them or have to pay FA market price and use too much budget space doing so. I'm not sure the Sox expected Bello to be a Cy Young candidate at age 24 and 25. They likely expected decent seasons and improvement. I'd say two seasons at $15M value according to fangraphs is as good or better than expected. Yes, a 4.19 FIP for two years in a row is not "killing it," it's still is pretty good. His ERA+ of 123, last season is very nice. How much does a guy that does this get on the FA market? 2024-2025: 28th ERA- at 93 (just below Gausman) 30th in IP 39th FIP (4.19) 36th xFIP 41st fWAR (3.9) Signing these deals is a bet that the player will do well and command too much bargaining power, either in his last arb years or once their control years are up. I'd say Bello is slightly ahead of pace on being worth the extension, and Rafaela's 2025 season puts him way above the curve, but with enough doubts to still worry or wonder.

You called it, notin. Nice deal. I'd say Cheng goes, and Crawford begins the season on the IL.

Early looking pretty good, today. With Crawford yet to pitch a ST'ing game and Sandoval likely to begin the season in the pen, is Early our #6 SP'er, now? (Tolle #7 or Sandoval?)

Agreed. I have him closer to 16 than 6. I hope he proves me wrong!

I doubt the CWS add him for opening day, but the kid is probably already better than someone on their 26. They suck. 2027 is probably when they start strongly considering adding him, and even then, they may wait until he gains another year of control, assuming the rules are the same.

First, you have to know what he'd have gotten and would have gotten through ARBs, and BTV does not have that ability. Then, you need to project what he'd get as a FA for the 2 years added to his control years. Where do I "feed" that into BTV? Walk me through the "simple math." There are easily 15-20 teams that would give us real value in a trade for Bello and ask for no money. Would they give more if he had just 3 arb years left? Yes, some of the cheap teams would, although a handful might not want him for his last 1-2 arb year costs, too. What would Bello have gotten in arb for 2026 after two $15M fangraph value seasons in a row? (Not $15M, as arbs are not high for the early arb seasons, but the numbers have been on the rise, lately.) How about next year and 2028? How is the math "simple" when we have no idea how well he'll do. I think your low opinion of Bello is influencing your projections.

We've changed coaches and GMs. Cora got a year off, too.

Finally!

$6.2> $8.7>$16.2>$19.2 then a $21M option with just a $1M buyout at age 30? Seriously? While that amount would price several teams out of even asking about a trade, it's a very reasonable pay schedule. Fangraphs gave him a value over $15M a year in 2024 and 2025, and he's just now entering his prime years, although "prime" varies quite a bit for pitchers. BTV projects $78M value over the next 4 years, and we all know teams pay more than projected value for pitchers under 30. All control years are before 30. He's owed about $52M/4, counting the buyout. I get the fact that his arb costs may not have been all that high, so maybe there is a slight overpay, but unless he declines in value (a possibility) he would likely get more than $19M a year at age 29 and $21M for the age 30 year. Rafaela's deal looks even better. He's making just $2M, this year (age 23)! Then $3.5M>$5.5M>$7.5M>$10.5M>$13M with a club option of $16M in 2032 ($4M buyout.) He will be just 29 for this option year. Fangraphs placed his value at $8M in '24 and $30M in '25. BTV projects production at $94M/7, while he's owed $58M more. Why would teams prefer to spend this money on FAs?

These guys will be great AAV bargains towards the ends of their deals when they'll be making $25-40M a year as free agents, or we'd have to replace them at those costs. Bello & Rafaela have played well enough, so far, to project salaries higher than what we will be paying them. Anthony is too early to tell. KC, too, but he looks more skeptical. However, KC's AAV cost is $7.5M. That's less than we have paid Sandoval, Kluber, Richards, Kiki and others. It's 1/3 the cost of Buehler. This is so far from "stupid."

What do you think? LOL. I know my money is in good hands. I do know some fees are taken, but I don't watch very penny. As long as the balance is ridsing significantly, I'm fine.

I'm not defending it, and it does look "dumb," so far, but it's a gamble that will likely not work everytime. I'm still optimistic on KC, but certainly my doubts are high, too.

I track my accounts every 3 months, but I don't really look real closely at fees, I'm paying, since the investment balance keeps doing pretty well vs the stock market, in general.

The Brez FA pitcher signings: $130M/5 Suarez $38.5M/2 Giolito $21.1M/1 Buehler $18.3M/2 Sandoval $10.8M/1 Chapman w $13.3M/1 extension w option $10M/2 Hendriks Extensions: $170M/6 Crochet $55M/6 Bello + option This is over $450M total.

I was not high on Snell, but Monty seemed reasonable, to me.

I think I'd add Thaiss to the 40 man and trade/DFA Cheng. I might add Ward and trade/DFA Gasper, but there is no hurry on this one. Maybe we add someone to the 60 Day IL and sign Coulombe or cut bait with Moran or Watson. (Kelly still has options, so maybe we don't need to.)

Braden Montgomery is trying to win a slot on the CWS roster with a nice spring, while Kyle Teel just hit the IL (4-6 weeks w hammy.)

I thought this was a 5 GG post.

BTV has Campbell at negative $1.2M, so he can easily get this to plus, with some sign of life. Anthony is +$62M. Yes, BTV shows if the contracts are underwater or not, but of course there is context needed, as arb players that are good will always be a plus. It's more about what we get after the control would have run out, and how much more we paid than the arbs would have been (an estimate.)