moonslav59

Suarez will likely cost more than the $90M/3 you maxed out on Breggie for, but I'd do it. He may just get 3-4 years at his age. I get the risk involved with a decline coming from Suarez, but I'd pay him a higher AAV than I would Bregman, and I think the long years is what scares JH more than anything. (See the Bregman deal and opt outs and the Devers contract dump.) We need power. I'd like Alonso or Schwarber, but both will probably be out of JH's range and both are more DH types than 1Bmen. Of course, Suarez might be no better at 1B than they are, but all 3 should be better than Casas. (I see Casas as our eventual DH.) I could see Okamoto and Suarez signings and trade for a pitcher. Maybe Suarez and Hoskins, but we'd suffer at 3B defense once again. Maybe we go with Mayer at 3B, Suarez at 1B and trade for Marte, but then we need to sign the dreaded FA SP'er.

I don't disagree on this assessment, but I'm not sure we improve the poser all that much from our corner IF. We got 38 HRs from our corner IF in 2015. That is horrific! Hoskins turns 33 in March and his power has been in steep decline for 3 years: .283 in '21 .216 in '22 .205 in '23 .179 in '25 Okamoto might give us the power boost we need, but losing Bregman and adding these two seems to fall short.

I do not think that's a big enough boost to the offense. Okamoto is largely unknown and could be a push with the Bregman loss. Hoskins should outhit a Lowe-Casas combo, but maybe not. He would certainly beat the overall 2025 Sox 1B numbers, but he does add a lot of power. I'd still push hard for Suarez at 1B over Hoskins or Naylor. I see Casas supplanting Masa at DH, at some point.

I'd sign Suarez for 1B and back-up 3Bman to oft-injured Mayer. His power blows Bregman away. His age limits the largeness and longness of any deal he signs. ISO since 2021 .224 Suarez .184 Bregman Sox Iso leaders since 2021 (600+ PAs) .239 Devers .211 Casas (one reason I am far from giving up on him) .209 Abreu (why I keep him over Duran, plus his D) .204 JD .191 Dalbec (higher than Breggie) .185 Duran (about the same as Breggie_ .179 Turner, .713 Bogey, .168 Story & Romy 2025: 300+ PAs .232 Devers (TRADED) .223 Abreu (Need to keep him) .189 Bregman (FA) .185 Duran (in decline) .179 Narvaez (great from the C position!) .178 Romy (can he go beyond a platoon role?) .171 Anthony (should improve greatly as he reached mid 20's) .170 Story (our HR leader) .165 Rafaela Others: .214 Refsnyder in 209 PAs .173 Mayer in 136 PAs- should improve like Anthony You talked me into a big bat or two being our top priority, this winter. Don't try and talk me out of it! LOL! Bregman is a good bat but not great, and he lacks the power we need. Don't be surprised if Bregman gets more more money than Suarez (more years, maybe not more more AAV.)

Right. If we trade for Marte, we'd have to sign a FA pitcher or settle for a M Keller type trade that will not need Mayer as part of it. I got away from my theory of two major signings and one major trade. Two major trades would be too problematic and would destroy the depth and long term window this foundation offers. It would have to be K Marte OR Greene/Lodolo/Ryan

Agreed. All money is not equal. Deferred money is worth way less than upfront money, and there is a very valid reason they discount the tax line number for it. I was thinking $110M/4 might be my limit, but no way that gets Breggie to sign. $150M/6 is adding $20M per year for two more years. That seems okay, and he'd likely play 2B those last 2-3 years, but I'm not sure even $150M/6 gets it done. If he misses the final year, and it's essentially $150M/5, he'll be 35 for season 4 and 36 for season 5. He might still be okay at those ages and even at 37 (year 6.) I just think we need more of a power bat, and with Bregman's decline on defense, I'm not sure the D outweighs the lack of power, anymore. We are also not sure he can maintain an .800 OPS, even next year.

I agree. Mayer SS, Story 2B and Suarez 3B/1B. (Not many other 3B options in free agency: Moncada and ______?) Maybe a trade for 3B will be necessary. I know you don't want Story at 3B, but a trade for K marte might be possible and he'd check off the big bat needed box: 1B Suarez (back up to Story/Mayer at 3B) 2B K Marte SS Mayer (Story back-up) 3B Story This infield solves the issue with needing two big bats over the winter, and allows us to trade from OF depth to get a solid SP'er. We can check the three biggest boxes: Big RHB 1B, 3B, 2B (Suarez) Big LHB 3B, 2B, 1B (Marte is a switch hitter) Solid SP: Greene, Lodolo, Ryan, Keller or _____ (via trade) (My 4th prioirty and pie-in-the-sky would be to add a second SP'er like Merrill Kelly and move Tolle, Fitts and maybe Crawford to the pen, making it as solid and deep as it's ever been.)

Agreed. I know you like to wait until FAs are verified, but Bellinger will be a FA. He's not taking $25M/1 after this season. I'm not that high on him. He's too up and down and would be our LF'er to replace Duran. He'll also be too costly. I would not trade low cost Duran and Abreu with the idea of paying Tucker through the roof. Just get a cheaper bat at 3B, 1B or 2B (2 of 'em, IMO.)

I was going to say the exact same amount and years, and feel even that is a pretty gross overpay. He was owed $80M/2, so offering $10M for the third year is a bit of a slap in the face that he will surely decline. $110M/4 is borderline slapping his face. As bad a defender as Suarez is, I'm leaning towards him. We need the power and being a RHB helps, too. I'd like to see him signed to play 1B and be Mayer's back-up at 3B, which could very much come into play. Needing to use Toro, when Breggie went down, last season exposed a big depth hole, despite his hitting well out of the gate. Using Mayer at 3B solidifies the need for a real 2Bman. We've let that position go on sucking for far too long. A trade for K Marte or a J Polanco signing (both switch hitters with decent splits.) That still leave the big need for a number 2 pitcher via trade or signings. I'm not big on any pitcher FA signings, this winter, so maybe trading for a pitcher and signing Suarez & Polanco is the best we can hope for. I suppose we could sign Merrill Kelly and trade for K Marte, as the plan A/B. Suarez, K Marte, Kelly Suarez, Polanco, Joe Ryan (H Greene or Lodolo- worst case- M Keller)

I would go to great extremes to get Greene, due mainly to the 3 years of control at about $40M total ($8,3 tax hit is right up our alley.) This offer looks like one for Skenes, who is pre-arb with 4 years of control. As for BTV, I think they have Duran over-valued. I'm not dissing Duran, but I do have some fears of an Ellsbury situation. If we gave up Duran, Abreu & Campbell and added a significant FA OF'er (likely not Tucker,) I could stomach that loss, but then to add Perales and Clarke (plus throw-in Romero,) it becomes way too much. Also, us signing a FA OF'er does not take away from the fact that giving just the first 2 names is a gross overpay. I'd keep the guy who plays great RF and might have led the team in HRs, this season, had he not got hurt: Abreu. I know this is an overpay, but I'd give Duran, Campbell, Paez, Sandlin or Mullins and Romero. If they insisted on a better pitcher, I might give both Sandlin & Mullins or breakdown and give them one from Valera, Fajardo or maybe Clarke, Perales. I think Greene is elite, and three years is a lot of value. Speaking of "Hunter," how about this package for Hunter Brown and his 3 arb years?

The Soto money ended up being insane, so it's hard to say we made an offer we knew would be beat. I think we felt we had a chance and made a legit offer that was way more than the record Devers contract. That being said, the Devers trade and Bregman opt out keeps me firmly in the "I'll believe it when I see it" mode, when it comes to expecting a large and long deal, anytime soon.

Bregman opts out, as expected. He may still re-sign under different terms.

The last serious deadline moves was Schwarber in 2021. That's a long time ago. It's hard to know about the seriousness of the Soto & Yamamoto offers. It could be that their offers were legit, and they just grossly misjudged what the winning offers would be, of they knew all along they would fall way short, and it was a sham to fool the fans into thinking they were not going cheap, yet again. I'm not sure what to believe. I've said I'm not expecting JH to spend large and long, despite the Devers extension, and his recent trade just further throws into doubt JH's spending intentions. The Bregman signing was a bold step up on the "large" side of a FA signing, and the Story signing hit the "long" button, but it's been a very long time since the last Large & Long signing. The Bregman signing was offset by the Devers trade, in my view, so I'm are back to where I was before the Devers extension & Bregman signing. I'm not sure it will take 5 or 6 years to land Alonso or Schwarber, and no was does Suarez get 5 years, but Tucker probably will. We will likely go another winter without a large and long deal. I'll be more surprised if we do one than if we don't.

It's weird how soxprospects.com updated their rankings recently, then they do an official ranking in early November. What really changes between now and then? Some Fall and Winter ball adjustments? A trade of or for prospects?

It will be interesting to see how serious JH & Co are about boosting this team into the next level. We clearly have opened the window, but we also have some major flaws that need fixing. We apparently made a serious play for Soto, although some of us doubt it was for real, but this winter would be a good time to show the seriousness we need from the top brass. Players like Alonso, Schwarber, Tucker and certainly Suarez won't cost anywhere near what Soto got or what we reportedly offered. IMO, it's time to put up or shut up. I know our OF is loaded, so signing Tucker seems outlandish, but we could trade two of our OF'er to make room. Of course, it would be easier to just sign one of the other 3, despite their defensive issues and our current logjam at DH. Sign one to play 1B, and I doubt any of them are worse than Casas at 1B. I'd also see us add a second bat (2B or 3B) and a #2 SP'er. We can trade for one- maybe two, but signing 2 makes more sense. Just get it done! Add 3 high quality players and skimp on the rest.

Hicks has 2 more year not 3. 2 x $12M with a tax hit at about $10.3M. Yes, I Campbell is a DFA candidate. K Campbell might be traded.

He'd be at a price JH would love.

It would be nice to sign a 3rd catcher or trade for some minor league depth, but to me, we have too many other more pressing needs. I think Wong has an option left, so we could have him start in AAA, but we need 2 bats and a #2 SP'er most of all. We need 2 corner IF'ers and a 2Bman plus that pitcher before looking at upgrading the C position. I'm not even sure it's the 5th priority.

I think his baserunning abilities and excitement convinces Cora he's worth playing everyday- in the hopes he can just get on base, even when tired, and then... IMO, I'd platoon Duran more than Abreu, next year. Maybe 2025 was an outlier, but I think Abreu is getting better vs LHPs, and Duran is in decline vs L & R. (Abreu has better splits v L in 2025.) IMO, one gets traded, anyway, so the choice will not have to be made. Plus, Ref may retire or sign elsewhere.

Yup, like Hicks, who would have been DFA'd, this year. Sandoval was supposed to give us 2026 and maybe 2 months of '25, but we've heard that story before. That would have come to about $8M per prorated season: now it's $12M/1. Hendriks ended up being about $10M/0. Paxton was about $10M/ 0.5. Maybe we finally strike gold.

I'm okay with the two catchers we have. Just sign a capable catcher to a minor league deal. Look what ole Hieneman did this year! Why can't we find catchers like that?

Yes, fWAR rewards more and more playing time, and that does have serious value. Even if you think he's just a top 20 OF'er, there are 90 starting OF'ers in MLB, so that is nearly top 20% or the "A" level.

Yoshida was 29 when we signed him, I believe. Some of these guys are younger. IMO, we need 2 big bats, 1 big one if Breggie returns, and with a likely limited budget, we may need to think outside the box.

Another example on how the Sox end up with all the leftovers. NOT!

You have a point. Many pitchers have had one really good season and then not much else. Sandoval had one good year: 2.91 in '22 with a 3.09 FIP that hints at it not being lucky. He also pitched well in '21 and .23, but not great. 3.62/4.03 in '21 2.91/3.09 in '22 4.11/4.18 in '23 From May 1 to the end of 2023 and his injury, he had these numbers in 69 GS- a pretty significant sample size and more than a one year wonder. 3.53 ERA (122 ERA+) and a 3.72 FIP In the time frame of 2 full seasons plus May>Oct in '21... His 8.7 fWAR placed him 44th (350+ IP) His 93 ERA- placed him at #46, near Morton, Stroman, Quintana, Eflin and Nola. That 460 IP sample size is as large as or close to these Sox pitchers the last 3 seasons: 97 GS (543 IP) Bello 6.7 fWAR (99 ERA-) 68 GS (390 IP) Crawford 4.8 fWAR (105 ERA-) 64 GS (388 IP) Houck 5.5 fWAR (98 ERA-) His '21-'23: 8.7 fWAR &85 ERA- Sandoval: 69 GS (460 IP) 8.7 fWAR & 93 ERA- I think this supports at least giving him the benefit of doubt that he deserves a slot, unless he looks awful in ST'ing. Remember, Crawford is returning from an injury and missed season. Houck is out until 2027, Dobbins will likely start the season on the IL, and MVP is projecting Bello to miss time. Gio will be gone. I'm giving him a slot that is his to lose.