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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    They won't sign the best 5, so somebody will be left over. PHI will not let Ranger Suarez go, without replacing him, in kind. Other teams will be looking to buy pitching. I still think we trade for a SP'er and spend on a corner infielder (or two.)
  2. moonslav59
    Nice presentation. Very thorough. I'll add this guy to my wish list. I do think that if we sign him, we won't trade for another SP'er. We'll add just one pitcher to replace Gio & Buehler. Our SP'er depth will be counted on to fill the 3-5 slots.
  3. moonslav59
    The Tolle inclusion would be the roadblock, as would Early. Since the Reds don't need multiple SP'ers, it wouldn't help to instead offer 2 from Crawford, Dobbins, Fitts & Harrison or 1 SP'er and a choice of a RP'er from Sandlin, Bernardino, Kelly, Guerrero or Moran. I doubt adding DHam helps at all. You guys don't want 3-4 forty man roster players for Greene, and you are looking to win, now, so taking Valera, Clarke or Arias might not be a viable sub for Tolle. We could probably offer K Campbell, instead of Jh Garcia, but I'm not sure you'd view that as a big enough uptick to sub out another arm for Tolle. Duran, Campbell & Crawford/Dobbins/Harrison? (Add Sandlin?)
  4. moonslav59
    I like this format better than others. Sorting the Pitchers by WAR gives us an idea of who the better 2025 SP'ers were & some names not mentioned, yet: (age on opening day '26 & 2024 bWAR) 4.7 Ranger Suarez (30, 2.7 and over 2.3 for 5 straight seasons) 3.8 F Valdez (32, 4.4 and over 3.2 for 4 straight seasons) 3.3 A Houser (33, 0.9 and under 2.0 every season) 3.2 Z Littell (30, 2.8 and never above 1.0 before '24) 2.9 M Kelly (37, 1.1 in 13 '24 starts but 3.8 & 4.0 in '22 & '23) 2.3 Robert Suarez (35, 2.0) & Nick Martinez (35, 4.0) 2.1 Giolito (31, n/a), Bassitt (37, -0.1) & T Mahle (31, 0.1 & under 1.9 since '22) 2.0 Tyler Anderson (36, 3.0) 11 SP'ers over 2.0. All will be 30 or older. 6 will be 32 or older. Maybe the Sox will seek out a much older SP'er, in order to keep the deal short and provide some leadership to the young staff. 37 Merrill Kelly & Bassitt 36 Tyler Anderson 35 Robert Suarez or Nick Martinez
  5. moonslav59
    Sign: E Suarez, Merrill Kelly, Refsnyder and Matz. Trade Campbell, Tolle, DHam and Sandlin for K Marte. Trade Yoshida (owed $36M/2) +$10M and Casas for Willson Contreras (owed $41M/2) Trade Hicks, Wong & Mullins for Seam Murphy ____________________ 1. L Anthony LF 2. S K Marte 2B 3. R Story SS 4. R Suarez 1B 5. L Duran DH/ R Refsnyder DH 6. R Murphy C/ R Narvaez C 7. L Abreu RF/R Refsnyder RF 8. L Mayer 3B/ R Romy 3B 9. Rafaela CF
  6. moonslav59
    I hope you are wrong. JH spent a lot, last winter, and the window looks more open, now than it did last fall. Of course, if all JH cares about is giving the fans an impression we have a chance and no more, then he may pull back on spending, but I seriously can't imagine him not spending up to but below the tax line and resetting it. That still gives us over $40M (with Story's contract counted.) Sox fans aren't as dumb as he thinks.
  7. moonslav59
    Cespedes and Bleis?
  8. moonslav59
    Fair enough, but 8.1 is not too far from Lodolo's 9.0. (Lodolo's career is much better.) Greene's is significantly better than both.
  9. moonslav59
    Love the Vandy win over LSU, today! They are for real, this year. The #13 Domers play #20 USC at South Bend. It's their last tough game of the season, so a win should mean they are in, assuming they take care of business vs unranked teams.
  10. moonslav59
    Not even close, and the game was the clincher one, as well. Man-o-man!
  11. moonslav59
    Alcantara seems like a huge gamble, but I'm not sure what the asking price would be. I would not be happy, if he was the only addition to the rotation. I'm not sure why you don't like Abbott. The reason he's not mentioned is that he's their ace. I admit I don't know much about Burns, but Lodolo and Greene would be nice adds, to me. Lopez had arm trouble, but they say he's alright. I hesitate on guys like him, but yes, teh return package would be less than Joe Ryan's. Maybe add Lopez and Alcantara, but how much do we give up for both? I wanna keep Tolle and Early, so that might limit who we can get. Part of me thinks we should sign Merrill Kelly and trade for Marte. Use the rest of the money to sign a power bat, corner infielder.
  12. moonslav59
    We could add Crawford, Dobbins, Fitts or Harrison and take away some of the money added for Yoshida.
  13. moonslav59
    Of course, but shying away from long term deals has not worked out too well, either. Price was the last added pitcher we've signed for over 2 years. (Nate was extended at 4 years and Bello for more.) Story was the last longer term deal, but it was not really a mega deal. JD's deal, figuring inflation was still not really a mega deal, either. Devers was extended.
  14. moonslav59
    Love the Vandy win over LSU, today! They are for real, this year. The #13 Domers play #20 USC at South Bend. It's their last tough game of the season, so a win should mean they are in, assuming they take care of business vs unranked teams. Other big games, today: #5 Ole Miss at #9 GA #11 TN at #6 AL That's a couple more teams ND could pass with a win. (They should pass LSU, if they win.)
  15. moonslav59
    We could use Singer, but he's not much of an upgrade over what we have. I'm not sure we should read too much into Ryan's end to 2025, but it is concerning. Remember, Crochet ended the '24 season with a 5.20 ERA over his last 9 starts (but a 2.91 FIP.) Ryan had 4 bad starts in his last 10 AUG>SEP. Pablo Lopez had arm issues, so he's in question, too. Mitch Keller has numbers like Pivetta had before 2025. 4.15 ERA/3.94 FIP and 103 ERA+ since 2022. He's an okay #2 and a solid #3, but he had an AUG-SEP at 5.47/5.41. Who do you suggest?
  16. moonslav59
    I'm fine with Brez's miss %. I wont call for his firing, if he misses on another one. My point was that we need to hit on our deals this winter to get us to the next highest level of competitiveness. (The same could be said for 15 teams, I'm sure.)
  17. moonslav59
    They may accept some form of a cap, if there is also a substantial floor set in place, as well. There are currently 4 teams under $32M, which is 1/8th of what the Dodger spend AAV. Another 6 teams are between $39M and 48M. If they cap team spending at around $200M, but make the floor around $50M, players would not see a drop in total money spent. The union should focus on getting more of their players into midrange deals than just a few making ungodly sums, while so many make the min to less than $2M/yr. Expanding the ML roster to 27 or 28 and the 40 to 42 or more would bring more players into significant salary increases. Lessing the pre-arb years is another way to get players making more money, sooner. There are many ways to get gains to offset a hard or soft cap set up.
  18. moonslav59
    Big letdown for the team that clearly won the regular season.
  19. moonslav59
    I agree on all grades. I might move Gio to a B, but the end of the season makes a B- fine.
  20. moonslav59
    I agree. The inclusion of Hicks or Yoshida is to offset the salary dumps we are taking back. Arenado is about as bad as Yoshida- worse at bat but can still feild okay. Lopez and Gray are not salary dumps, but they both make way more than Hicks, and including Hicks still saves those teams a lot of money. W Contreras is a slight salary dump and when added to Arenado could be viewed as an offset for Yoshida, and we essentially get Gray for Duran. There is less than a 1% chance any of these deals are made. If MN trades Lopes, they will want all the money saved. I get it. I'm just throwing out long shot ideas to create a world where the Sox no longer have Yoshida or Hicks on the roster without an outright DFA.
  21. moonslav59
    I'm certainly far from expecting it and have given up on even hoping for it, but we should have about $40-50M to spend and stay under the tax line ($60-70M if we go up to the second tax line, which is highly unlikely.) We can't swing and miss on the Buehler type signings. Brez needs to win every signing, which might be just 2 significant ones. At best, I expect we trade for the third one of our 3 top priorities. Best hope: $25-30M AAV on FA #1 $20-30M AAV on FA #2 Major trade to land a high quality SP, 1Bman, 3Bman or SS/2Bman. My guess is we land 1 or 2 of these wishes.
  22. moonslav59
    AAV Lost $Millions 31.7 Bregman 29.1 Devers 21.1 Buehler 19.3 Giolito 5.0 Hendriks 2.3 Wilson 2.1 Refsnyder ?? Matz & May That's close to $120M gone or going, soon. _________________________________ AAV gained (from Devers trade and onwards) 24.5 Crochet (3.8>28.3) 15.5 Anthony (Min>16.3) 10.3 Hicks (Devers trade) 6.7 Campbell (Min>7.5) 4.7 Duran (3.8>8.0) 2.5 Chapman (10.8>13.3) ~5.8 ARBs for Houck, Crawford, Romy, Casas, Wong, Bernardino, Wink & Kelly) That's plus about $70M I probably missed something, but it's close to $50M at stake, this winter.
  23. moonslav59
    They also moved slightly away from the one and done $10M pitcher signings with: $39M/2 Giolito $21M/1 Buehler $19M/2 Sandoval That's almost $80M for 3 years, not counting on any signings for 2026. It's already at $27M/yr x 3 years for SP'ers. We didn't get much from that $80M, but it is not chump change, either. They paid less for Chapman & Wilson that what Jansen & Martin cost, but for once going cheaper actually worked out. The Crochet and Anthony extensions were also accompanied by the Campbell deal. Recent extensions to Rafaela and Bello had already kicked in. I think it's safe to say a change has occurred, but with the Devers salary dump and the pending losses of Bregman, Gio, Buehler, Wilson and Matz, we are once again questioning where we go from here on spending. JH is known form cycling his spending, and while we all see a window opening wide and a clear reason to stay in the higher spending cycle, what the hell is JH thinking? None of us know.
  24. moonslav59
    It's impossible to project. I'd guess he wants to reset, after we just barely went over the line, this year. That means one major signing ($25-30M AAV) and one mid level deal ($15-20M AAV.) That means a trade is needed, if we want a third major addition. Ideally, JH allows Brez to go up to the second line, which I think would mean about $60-65M to spend. That could be a $25M, 20M and 20M trio or a $30M, $25M & 5-10M trio. (or teo mega stars and a trade.) I would not be surprised, if JH views all the recent extensions and making up for the Devers dump and Gio-Buehler walk-aways. He'll maybe replace just Bregman and call it a winter.
  25. moonslav59
    The idea should be to add players with at least 2 years of control, and not go all in for 2026 ONLY. Better yet, go for 3-4+ controlled players, who are mostly not on the wrong side of 30. Keller should be available and has 3 years of control. He turns 30 in April. Avoid one year targets like Singer and maybe even 2 year guys like Lodolo. Does that mean give up the world for 3 years of Greene? I'm not so sure, but I'd prefer him over 1 year pitchers. While Joe Ryan is often mentioned, we could get soon to be 30 year old Pablo Lopez for less, and he has the same 2 years of control remaining at an $18,3M AAV cost. Maybe we can get STL to take on Yoshida's contract, if we take back Sonny Gray (2 years) and W Contreras (2-3 yrs) or ....gasp.... Arenado's (1-2 yrs) contracts. To get Gray, we'd have to offer something like Crawford, Dobbins, Harrison or Fitts and maybe more (Sandlin, Garcia, Campbell?) There are ways to improve the team for 2016 AND beyond, preferably beyond 2027, too.
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