moonslav59

I get that, but that does not mean he won't be in '26. 28, 30 ands 28 GS'd in the past 3 seasons is not the sign of an injury prone pitcher. He also had 6 GS'd in the minors in the past 3 seasons in rehab, so basically, he's started 28, 31, 32.

Honestly, that looked like the Sox on the basepaths.

Still, the 13th best OF fWAR in MLB. Obvious regression, but still A- to B grade, to me.

I agree- player for player, except I give Duran a B. The missed time aspect kept the grades from being: A Anthony B+ Rafaela & Abreu B Duran & Refsnyder (close to B+)

These guys from Japan will likely be cheaper than the big boppers like Alonso and Schwarber- maybe even than Suarez. There is also more risk involved- see the Yoshida signing. We know JH likes cheap, so maybe we go that route.

I'm always for adding a SP'er near or at the top of the rotation. I've always disliked trying to upgrade the #5, but I do feel like adding a #2 SP'er is the second priority behind adding a big bat at corner IF or 2B. The third priority is adding a second bat at one of the positions not filled by the #1 priority get. (We'll roll the dice with Mayer at 3B, 2B or SS w Story to 2B and have Romy/Sogard/DHam as depth.)

Almost a "lock" to "NOT" be ready for Bello?

Most likely Dobbins, but I was trying to point out the max our farm starter depth could be.

The trade list might include: MN: Joe Ryan & Pablo Lopez PIT: M Keller MIA: Alcantara & Cabrera CIN: Lodolo & Singer STL: S Gray TBR: Rasmussen, Baz, Pepiot (RP Fairbanks/ 1B Y Diaz) KCR: Wacha, Lugo, Lorenzen WSH: M Gore BAL: D Kremer LAA: Kikuchi AZ? ERod, Burnes? TEX? Nate, deGrom?

CLE mighta made the playoffs with those two.

I think Mullins is the only real borderline Rule 5, and we can make room for him, too. I also think we will make a trade involving Duran and others, and if one is on the 40, that would free up another slot. 28 Locks/Keepers: Crochet, Houck, Crawford, Dobbins, Bello, Sandoval, Early, Tolle, Harrison, Fitts, Perales, Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Bernardino Anthony, Mayer, Campbell, Story, Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Narvaez, Yoshida, Romy, Jh Garcia, Wong 9 Probable/Trade Bait/ No Big Deal Casas, DHam, Criswell, Winckowski, Moran, Murphy, Kelly, Guerrero, Sogard Rule 5: + 1 Sandlin (maybe Mullins) That's 38 or 39. We likely dont protect Mullins and keep Hicks, so we'd be at 39. 6 Borderline/Trade/Non Tender/DFA: Hicks, Lowe, Grissom, Eaton, de Leon, I Campbell Trade or DFA the last 4 or 5 names from these 6. (Kelly & Guerrero are borderline, when we sign FAs.)

I see Keller as a #3. Cease scares the bejesus out of me. Galeen, too. I'd rather roll the dice on a shorter deal with Merrill Kelly, despite his age. Ranger Suarez would be nice. I like your other trade ideas.

Many teams have 40 man roster decisions to make, including some bad teams. I don't know the depth of every team, but my guess is our "crunch" is no worse than most other teams, when you look at our projected 37-40 slots and add Sandlin.

If we assume the MLB rotation will be Crochet, Bello, Sandoval, Crawford and Dobbins (Houck on IL: Wink & Criswell in the pen), take a look how deep our farm rotation goes: AAA: Early, Harrison, Tolle, Fitts, Perales (Uberstine, de Leon, Drohan, Anderson, I Coffey) AA: Holobetz, Mullins, Clarke, Paez, Aita (Wehunt, Dean, Rogers) A+: Fajardo, Valera, Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson (Tygart, Neely, Foutch) A-: Travieso, J Bello, Patton, Ruiz, Morgan (Brown, Gartrell)

Derek Jeter's Defense (1500+ IP): 1995-2004 Last in DRA at -26. (Berroa was at -20 and the next guy at -15. The 4th and 5th worst added together was -25.) Then he got way worse and hurt his team by staying at SS: 2005-2014 Last in DRS at a staggering -136. (second was HRam at -74, 3rd at -66, 4th -54. 3rd and 4th together wasn't as bad as Jeter. 5th+6th+7th wasn't as bad.) Again, the guy was a big plus batter and team leader, but poor SS defense hurts a team's chances.

I think Narvaez is for real, and his defense alone makes him a plus. Although an injury and fatigue took it's toll, only 9 catchers had more PAs as a catcher than Carlos. Of the 15 catchers with 400+ PAs, only 9 had a higher OPS & wRC+. You have to set the PAs to 275 to get a sample size of 30 catchers (1 starter per team.) Only 12 of those 30 had a higher OPS than .732. For a rookie to place in the top 12-13 in most categories is pretty amazing and promising. He placed 12th if fWAR, too. Of course, the season could be an outlier, but I don't see any reason to think it was. He had decent power and OBPs in the minors, and he was known for good defense, all along. I'm not sure Wong's offense is this bad, nor was it as good as 2024. He's most likely a .625 to .675 back-up catcher who showed improved defense and improved numbers with the results of the pitchers who he caught. I wouldn't mind a better back-up, but I think we have higher priorities. Wong was basically Bello's Binky, and maybe it's no coincidence he had a major uptick from 2024 to 2025. Here are the OPS Against with Wong vs Narvaez and the sample sizes for each) Bello .643 w Wong (575 PAs) .790 w Narvaez (125) Crochet .597 w Wong (126) .620 w Crochet (688) Buehler .715 w Wong (95) .845 w Narvaez (413) Giolito .614 w Wong (78) ,696 w Narvaez (535) Dobbins .709 w Narvaez (197) .729 w Wong (59) Whitlock .528 w Narvaez (18) .581 w Wong (101) Weissert .509 w Wong (92) .729 w Narvaez (182) Chapman .319 w Wong (69) .365 w Narvaez (147) My Grades: A- Narvaez C- Wong

I read a rumor of Duran + prospects for Lodolo (soon to turn 28.) Lodolo has 2 arbs left, so one less year of control, so maybe the added prospects will not need to be top prospects. One has to worry if 2025 was an outlier for Lodolo, but he is trending up, while Duran downwards. His ERA+ went from 92 to 137, and his K/BB from 3.3 to 5.0. His FIP barely improved from 3.95 to 3.81. He is a lefty. Would you call him a projected #2 (top 31-60) SP'er?

With no additions, I'd guess... 1. Crochet 2. Bello 3. Sandoval 4. Crawford 5. Early 6. Harrison, 7. Dobbins (IL) 8. Tolle, 9. Perales (Fitts, Wink & Criswell in pen.)

I think Moran stays. We really don't have the roster crunch some think we do, and I also think we can make a 2 or 3 for one trade before Rule 5 day. Also, we may only protect Sandlin, so no but crunch. One crunch factor is that Houck needs to stay on the 40, until the season starts. You'd think the union would allow players to be placed on the 60 day IL right before the season to allow more players to earn MLB money, but I guess they end up earning it a few days later. They probably want to avoid teams using phantom 60 Day ILs to expand their 40 man rosters. I'm not so sure Wink gets DFA'd. He had some decent numbers for the Sox over multiple seasons. After his first season in 2022, he had a 2.1 bWAR in 172 IP. (3.51 ERA/ 124 ERA+/4.11 FIP) He might get traded but not DFA'd, IMO. I do think I Campbell gets DFA'd. Grissom will be traded or DFA'd. Eaton & de Leon might be, too. I wouldn't cry if Kelly or Guerrero is traded or cut loose. A lot depends on how many FAs we add. I'm hopeful we seek quality over quantity, and if we just add 2-3 FAs to the 40, we'll be fine. If it's 4-5, then heads must roll.

Last year I was high on Woo, and there was talk SEA was open to trading a pitcher. Castillo was the guy most rumored, but Miller was talked about. Now, that SEA's rotation has declined in strength, I'm not sure they trade Miller, unless they get a young pitching prospect back, they like more. I'd be afraid they know our prospects better than we do, and we'd get burned. I also worry a lot about Alcantara, and all his "upside value." I'd prefer we go the more safe route, but two things- nothing is safe (see the Gio is a horse idea) and "safe value" is way more expensive than speculative value. I really liked Ryan, but now I have doubts about him, too. Keller seems steady, but is aging and seems like a 3/4 and not the solid #2 I'm begging for.

Weirdly, Criswell got just one start, this year, after doing pretty well in 2024. That start was a good one, then he got demoted and injured. I'm thinking they had a reason to lower him on the rotation depth chart, but we saw first hand, they often got the order wrong, and ended up trading the wrong depth guy, in Priester, so maybe I should not trust them as much as I do. Ideally, he'd be AAA rotation depth, but he's out of options, and I have to think he'd be claimed if we tried to sneak him through the winter waiver wire. Winckowski, Moran and I Campbell, as well as Hicks are out of options, so something has to give. Some may be traded, but other teams are not looking at most of these guys as players they want to crowd their 40 man rosters with, let alone their 26 man roster, either, but to me only Hicks and I Campbell look like non keepers. I'd trade or DFA both, but it looks like they've committed to giving Hicks a winter to get his act together.

Hitting around .700 in A+ and AA ball this year is nothing to get excited about, but Arias is just 19 years old, so it's hard to project just how good (or bad) he will be at the plate. He seems like he might already be a plus on defense at the MLB level, but I'm going by scouting reports. I agree with MVP, that he not a top 25 nationwide prospect, but I think there is just too much unknown to project his final outcome. I like Godbout, too. I know he's only been playing a short time, but I'd have him above Romero, already. As much as out everyday player prospects have been maligned, recently, and with all the recent graduates, it's understandable. I think the great rise of our pitching prospects has also made it look like our everyday prospects are not as good as maybe they are. We may not have as many as before, and with guys like Cespedes, Bleis and Castro moving in the wrong direction, it is safe to say, we have very limited non pitching talent. What we have, I argue is pretty damn promising, though. I still think Jhostynxon Garcia is the real deal. We may find that out, real soon. Romero might be the next closest to MLB ready, but I don't see him as more than a decent utility player. Bleis, Cespedes and Castor are now long shots. Nelly Taylor might make a jump, next year, but at age 22, he pretty much has to jump to get himself in the conversation. We've talked about Arias and Godbout, and Justin Gonzales has gotten some serious talk this year, too. I may be off base, but I have a lot of faith in Johanfran Garcia and a little bit in Yophery Rodriguez (both 19-20 years old.) Recent additions like Mason White, Jorge Rodriguez & Max Martin have some real hopes, but to me a 2-3 of these guys will jump some or a lot, next year: Dorian Soto SS 17 Enddy Azocar OF 18 Hector Ramos SS 18 Harold Rivas OF 17

Yes, that's how they do it. They are correct in that sense, but as for recent jumps and falls, yes, they are not correct. When you look at jumps and falls, we also have to look at who graduated and where they were ranked, to see if players moved up on their own or by attrition. These players graduates this year: Anthony AUG #1 April & July Campbell JUN #2 April Mayer AUG #3 April & #2 July (KC graduated) Fitts JUN #11 April Dobbins JUL #12 April Narvaez MAY #20 April Guerrero JUL #23 April That's 7 top 23 players who left the list by graduation. 5 players who were above Tolle & Jh Garcia in April, graduated, but only 3 were above Arias. Fajardo jumped from 40 to 11, and 7 of the slots he jumped were vacated by graduates. We've been graduating some decent players in recent years: 2024: Abreu, Rafaela & Slaten 2023: Casas, Murphy & Bernardino (not that impressive) 2022: Duran, Bello, Crawford, Wink & Wong (Houck was late '21 & Whitlock mid '21.)

E Suarez turns 35 in July. He may get a 2-3 year deal, which is not long, but will be large. He could be a guy we look at other than Bregman. He's not a good defensive 3Bman, but he could be signed to play 1B and be the much needed back-up to Mayer at 3B. It's been a very long time since the last large and long deal JH has approved. Of course, the Devers extension was one, but look how quickly that one lasted. It's easy to predict another one is not in the works, and I feel the same way. Our last longest and largest deals- many were not terribly large and non were beyond 5 years, except for Story, since the Price signings so many years ago. Since 2016 $217M/7 Price '16 $145M/5 Sale '20 extension $140M/6 Story '22 $120M/3 Bregman w opt outs $120M/6 Bogey '20 extension w opt out $110M/5 JD '18 '90M/5 Yoshida '23 $83M/4 Porcello '16 extension $68M/4 Nate '19

O'Hearn over Hoskins?