moonslav59

If we agree on the idea that we will not likely turnover more than 3-4 positions with 3B, 1B and SP being just about automatic turn-overs due to Bregman & Gio opting out and Lowe's arb cost being too high, but how do you rank out highest need areas? I'm pretty sure you have Rafaela higher on the list than I do, but here is mine: 1. 3B (Mayer can play 2B with Romy/DHam/Sogard as capable depth) T2. SP2 (Preferably a borderline #1) T2. 1B (Casas would be great depth and had options remaining. Romy/Campbell is better extended depth than we knew we had going into 2025.) 4. 2B (With Mayer and Story's health in question, we could use a solid middle IF'er type.) If we miss out on a big bat at 3B or 1B, maybe a trade for someone like K Marte of a J polanco signing could make up for the non plus. I really do not see the other positions as high need, but I'd rank them like this: 5. Back-up Catcher 6. LH'd RP'er 7. Infield depth With RHBs Garcia & Campbell as OF depth and Duran & garcia capable of playing CF well enough, I don't see CF as a need area at all. I know you disagree, but I think you'd be fine with our OF, if we fixed the first 3-4 slots on my priority list.

I'm pretty sure MVP and everyone else is firmly in the camp against complacency. We need Crochet and Anthony plus more. Much more, but not at 7 other positions. We need 3, maybe 4 high quality players. That seems like a lot, but really, it doesn't have to be. We are losing Bregman, Gio and Buehler's contracts. We have an extra high-quality OF'er to headline a trade package. Sure, we have some big extensions kicking in a few small arb raises to add on, but there should be $40-50M to spend plus one major trade. That should be enough for 3 major additions. If we don't add 2-3, we'll know JH is fine with complacency.

Yes, I know you did not say there was harm in talking. I'm fine with Mayer at SS, but with his injury history, we need a solid plan B option, even if it means sliding Story back to SS and having a real good back-up at 2B/3B to step in and not kill the team like DHam and Toro almost did.

I agree, but just because Crochet is so great, it doesn't mean Anthony gets any worse. Of course, some of RA's value is based on speculation, but just about everyone agrees he's the real deal. 300 PAs may have been deceptive, but if people can write off Campbell on even less PAs, then why not think Anthony can top .860 in 2026? I'm not just saying this because we need him to do so, and I am not a homer on every Sox player's 2026 outlook. (See my Duran is in decline point I've since retracted.) Every team in MLB would have Anthony high on their list of 2026 projections.

Between Anthony and Crochet (23-9 in his starts,) this team would be out of the conversation for 2026. We need both. We also need Chapman to come close to his 2025 numbers and a couple or more pre-prime players to kick it up a notch. I'm fine with Drew's feelings on not planning on 22-26 year olds improving, but the fact is, even with 2 big bat additions and a solid SP'er, we will probably need a few to make jumps, anyway. These young players that Sox are counting on are not Henry Owens, Bobby Dalbec, Ryan Lavarnway and Jay Groome. These are guys recognized at the national level plus some who have already shown they can produce at the ML level, at least in some key areas. Anthony is just 21. If he never gives us more than .860, he'd still be a major plus. Why shouldn't we expect even better? Mayer and Garcia are just 22 and largely unproven, but both make the national rankings. Campbell is 23 and showed some serious limitations in '25, but this kid has some real promise left in him. Rafaela is 24 and Casas 25. That's 6 guys at 25 and younger, and we don't need but 3-4 of them to get better. We don't need all 6. Then, we have another 3-4 players entering or in their peak prime years: Abreu, Duran, Narvaez and Romy. Our post prime players are not way past prime: Story 32, Yoshida 31 and Wong 29. Only Story is viewed as a FT'er, anyway. So, we have Story plus 3-4 youngsters and 3-4 prime players making it about 7-9. Add two high quality big bats, and we have a nice 9 with a solid bench.

I'm not sure a single poster feels this winter has no urgency. We may see the extent of it at various levels, I think most of us feel at minimum we need a big bat (RHB) and a solid SP'er, plus some depth signings. Some of us, myself included, feel we need 2 big bats and more than just a solid SP'er. I'm pulling for a #1/2 type, like maybe Ryan, Greene, Lodolo types. A few of us might want even more, but with JH's budget limits likely and maybe one big trade as asking for a lot, I think the limit is adding 2-3 high quality players. I won't be surprised if it's just 1 plus some decent secondary players. Hell, zero won't surprise me, with JH forcing Brez to add 3-5 good but not great players. We can argue all day about Anthony, Abreu, Duran, Story, Casas and others, but the fact is we simply have to count on them as starters (including Rafaela & Narvaez.) We aren't replacing more than 1-2 current players and also replacing Bregman, Lowe, Refsnyder, Gio, Buehler and Wilson. Right now, Anthony is our best bet at being a major offensive boost. We can hope Story, Abreu and others stay about even. Maybe Abreu plays more and hits 30+ dingers. We can hope Casas returns to .800+ batting. We can hope Mayer, Campbell or others make a big jump, but I'm with Drew on the need to add two big bats. At minimum, one could be at the Bregman/Bichette/Hoskins/Naylor level, but that might not even be enough. The other(s) need to be at the Alonso, Suarez, Schwarber, K Marte level. Then, we need a solid and dependable SP'er- no more Buehlers, Sandovals and Klubers. Does anyone here think just running back the same team makes us a top 4-5 contender? (Assuming Bregman, Story, Ref, Matz and Gio return.)

Bregman is a FA just like anyone else who is, although we can negotiate up until the date all FAs can be. I'm going on the assumption Story is back, but if not, we'll just add one more high need to the list that I see as being 3 deep, as of now. Yes, we can wait to talk, but there is no harm in starting now.

We got lucky Nate had a bit of an uptick.

How about this for a winter plan? Sign Suarez (1B & back-up 3B) M Kelly & Matz Trade: Duran & Crawford for Joe Ryan Trade: Campbell, Tolle & Sandlin for K Marte (I'd try to avoid giving up Tolle by offering Dobbins & Fiits/Harrison/Clarke, but...) 1. L Anthony LF 2. S K Marte 2B 3. L Abreu RF 4. R Suarez 1B 5. L Yoshida/ R Romy DH 6. R Story SS 7. L Mayer 3B 8. R Narvaez C 9. R Rafaela CF Bench: Wong, Romy/Yoshida, Sogard, Garcia SP: Crochet, Ryan, Kelly, Bello, Early (Dobbins/Harrison/Fitts/Criswell/Perales/Holobetz/Uberstine) RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Bernardino, Matz, Wink, Hicks (Moran, Kelly, Guerrero, I Campbell/Mullins, Song, Drohan, Hoppe)

I still think we should have moved Devers to 1B the minute Breggie signed. (Casas to DH.) I'm not sure it works out any better, but the second position move ask seemed to trigger the last straw for Devers.

Had he gotten Lowe earlier and then traded for a real bat at the deadline, mayb e we go farther, but with the Anthony injury coming afterwards, I doubt we reach the promise land even if we added Suarez, Naylor of whoever on O. We also needed a SP'ers, so I don't throw much blame at Brez for not going overly nutty after the Devers trade. I do think he needs to be bold, this winter, or I will be throwing blame at him and or JH.

Maybe "decline" is a bit premature, and maybe the memories of Jake are overriding my logic. An age 29 season (2026) should not signal decline. It is often enough a player's best season. I just got a sense that he was not the same batter he was from 2023-2024, and for some reason, he stopped trying to steal bases as much. (Tired? Injured?) You are right, I should not read the last 3 seasons' OPS+ of 121>132>114 as a sign of decline, but it could be.

Ks suck, and while guys like Bobby D could never sustain his minor league OBP (BB and H%) Anthony has started out showing he can. Give me a .390+ OBP and I could care less about the K rate. Anthony should lead off, next season, and his skills, other than baserunning, will be a big asset.

It used to be thought that players who hit the ball hard and low (high GB% and LD%) were good hitters.

48.4 and 48.0 is still high, yes. His MLB 51.1 is likely a predictable increase, but it doesn't mean he will always be around 48-51%, and besides, we don't need every batter hitting 30+ HRs. I'll take the near 400 OBP (minors & majors.) I'll take the 40 doubles+triples and 12-18 HRs, but I do think we'll see his HR rate improve as he ages. While OBP might be out of style, I still think it has immense value.

While I agree, the guy deserved an F or D-. A manager playing him is no excuse for sucking, badly. He was great from game 9 to game 27, so maybe that's enough to get him to a D or D+. (1.073 OPS in 73 PAs) Had he not been replaced by Lowe, we'd have almost certainly missed the playoffs. .509 OPS in his last 185 PAs. That's like Wong & DHam suckiness.

Many times, these awards are jokes.

It's a number often used- not so much to project the guy will reach 650, buts as a measuring stick to compare apples to apples and what a full season of hitting might project to being. It's easier to grasp what 33 HRs looks like at 650 PAs than to say the guy projects to 22 Hrs per 417 PAs. if we went to HRs per PA, it would seem meaningless, unless you listed out everybody or the players ranking in HRs per 1 PA.

IMO, he is not injury prone. Cora has chosent o platoon Abreu over Duran, and until this season, Duran has been better than Abreu v LHPs. Duran has been in MLB longer, so that should be considered. IMO, Abreu would have played FT in 2025 on most teams. Abreu hit .676 v LHPs, this season, while Duran hit .600. (Duran earned FT status while batting .650 v L from 2022-2024. Abreu only had 77 PAs vs L in this time frame at .517.) Abreu may play FT in 2026, if ref retires or signs elsewhere, but even if Ref is back, I could see Ref platoon at DH with Masa and Abreu play vs L & R. If Duran is traded, it's almost a certainty. Having RHBs Jh Garcia & K Campbell as the OF depth does offer further platoon options, so this is not a sure bet to happen. What worries me is Abreu's 2 HRs in 145 PAs vs LHPs, career. His power appears to be one-sided. There are clear advantages to having players who bat well vs L & R, but none of our current OF'ers do. The only one with near equal splits is Rafaela, and he's not a good batter vs either side. Best OF'er on D: 1. Rafaela (Difficult CF) 2. Abreu (Very difficult RF) 3. Jh Garcia (can play all OF positions) 4. Duran 5. Campbell Best Batter vs RHPs (65% of SP'ers) : 1. Abreu 2. Duran 3. Rafaela 4. Campbell/Garcia Best Batter v LHPs (35%) 1. Probably Garcia 2. Probably Campbell 3. Rafaela 4. Duran & Abreu close to even, but Abreu better in '25. Running 1. Duran 2. Rafaela Big gap.... T5 Abreu, Garcia, Campbell Are you suggesting we change the whole OF, since none hit well vs both sides? Our OF was one of the best in MLB- on O and D.

I get that and pointed it out in my first sentence. I think Sogard can get better than C+. I'd try and find someone better than Toro for corner IF depth. I could see Casas being the 1B/DH and Eaton for 3B, but if we sign Suarez, he could be the 3B depth and starting 1Bman. If Casas gets healthy, we could shuffle things around, easy enough. Toro sucked- expected or not. D- max.

Anthony did everything but smack a bunch of homers in his first 300 MLB PAs. He's a keeper, and He's pencilled in my top 4 batters for 2026. He is also THE GUY that makes trading Duran for Lodolo or Ryan even possible. I like Mayer more than some here, but I share your deep concerns about his ability to stay on the field. Maybe he'll pull a 2025 Story on us. I'm far from giving up on KC, but he needs to find a position. Our DH slot is 5 deep. If we trade Duran, we'd have a 4th OF'er slot open, but he needs to play everyday to prove he can get another shot at FT play. 1B is open, but we need serious power, and that slot is ideal for filling that need. (DH, too.)

Agreed, although I'd pull more than Abreu or say no to Greene. Duran and I C ampbell or Kelly for Lodolo works for me. Abreu is the one true power bat we have. (34 HRs per 650 in '25.)

While we don't need to add a Crochet, every winter, we seriously lack star power on offense. I loved the balanced approach, and still do, but even when we had Mueller and Hobson batting 9th, we had a couple bashers in the middle. Our rotation showed serious cracks, especially at the end, and one of our top 3 (Gio) is a goner. Yes, adding Greene would be shiny, but when you subtract Gio's season, it's not like replacing Criswell with Crochet. We do NOT need to go very shiny at SP. I agree with that. I'd be fine with Lodolo or Ryan and have even said I'd settle for M Keller, but I'm with Drew on going large on a power bat or TWO!

True, but it's not like Casas, Alonso and some others talked about play even close to average 1B defense. We are NOT signing Schwarber. I only mention him out of our extreme need for a power bat. Even if we somehow miraculously dumped Yoshida, I'd put our odds at signing Schwarber at less than 2%. Alonso is probably a very long shot, too. Tucker is a zero chance and under 2% if we trade 2 OF'ers. Who is left? E Suarez who is about a year older than Schwarber and can likely play 1B as well or better than Casas and Alonso. He can also serve as our back up to Mayer at 3B. (We may need one.) His contract will not be 5+ years, so that will make JH happy. He won't get the AAV that Alonso, Schwarber and probably even Bichette & Bregman get, so another enticement for JH & Co. Any other options look to be via trade, and IMO, out big trade should be for a pitcher. (Merrill Kelly might be a FA option for all the reasons I stated for Suarez.)

Feel the same.