moonslav59

Good laydown. I'm not sure how much trade value the other pitching prospects have, but I think some may be highly coveted: Clarke, Valera, Holobetz and Fajardo in particular. My trade list might be: 1. Fitts, but I agree his pen value might exceed his trade value. 2. Crawford 3. Dobbins 4. Harrison (I think #2 & 3 have more trade value and maybe less upside) 5. Tolle (I think Bello and Sandoval are locks) Do not trade Early or Crochet. I think we need another top starter. Perales should not be traded. I'm hesitant to trade Valera, Fajardo, Holobetz or Clarke.

It's hard to know how TEX and AZ are looking at their budgets and near future chances, as well as some other teams. There may be a team out there I'm overlooking. AZ already traded some of their better players and lose Gallen to free agency. TEX has to be dissapointed, and have to see an aging roster in front of them. I doubt they chose to open a window for a 1-2 year stretch: they may decide to retool, and we have a lot of young talent and high potential players. I realize most of us overvalue our own players, but I also think we undervalue some players who don't have flashy numbers or just had a tough season. For example, I think many GMs would jump at the opportunity to get Rafaela and even Campbell. Both are not overpaid. Many view Abreu as a the dreaded "platoon guy," but every GM would love him on their roster and would pay a pretty high price to get him. I will agree that Casas has lost almost all his trade value, and that's why I'd keep him, but maybe some GMs would pay for him. Our younger pitchers have to be on many GMs minds. With the cost and risk associated with FA pitchers, I think every team is looking at trading for young and low-cost pitchers, even if some have only potential or speculative value. I loved the strategy of loading up on depth, and the recent focus on pitching depth is one major reason we made the playoffs, this season, but with our window open wide, right now, I think the focus needs to be on higher quality, at the expense of extended, decent quantity. I see this for our line-up and am with Drew on the call for a couple big bats- minimum. I also see this with our rotation. We have a lot of solid #3-4 types or potential #2-4 types, but only Crochet looks to be a sure bet top 60 SP'er in 2026. I'd like to see us have 3 top 60 pitchers, or at least 2. Sure, Bello & Gio were top 60 in most relevant categories, and that is a big reason we did this well, but Gio is a goner, and Bello raised some questions to end the season. I'm certainly not against the idea of having quality depth for our rotation. We need to keep some. We saw what happened when we traded Priester, and ended up needing to trade for a SP'er at the deadline, despite looking like we had 12-13 SP'ers, last winter, but how else to we get top quality players, if JH is not going to buy 3-4 of them via free agency? IMO, we need to strategically determine who we should keep and who we think are the valuable players we need to part with. We aren't getting quality players for DHam, Yoshida or Hicks, so we need to be serious. Our areas of strength and depth are the OF and pitching. With the DH position filled, 3 times over, using an OF'er to DH is not really an option, and the worst defender of our top 4 OF'er is Duran. I have to think his value as a LF'er on another team is way more than as a DH on the Sox- not to mention what do we do with Yoshida, Campbell, Romy and Ref, if he returns? We have to trade one from Duran, Abreu or Rafaela. With Jh Garcia, Campbell and emergency back-up Yoshida as depth, we can afford to lose one. We aren't getting an ace or solid #2 SP'er for an OF'er by himself, so we have to add a pitcher or two, and that is more complex and scary, to me, than choosing which OF'er to trade. Much of the pitching values we have are on the potential/speculative side of evaluating their talent levels, or they are returning from injury or drop offs to end the 2025 season. Some saw their stock shoot up in Sept, like Early and Harrison. I can't say who are the right pitchers to trade, and I tend to think teams are willing to take 3 or 4 for one trades, like the Crochet deal, when most want 1 for 1 trades or 2 for 1 with non 40 man roster high prospects added on, if it is more than 1 for 1. We know Crochet is the keeper, and it is likely Bello and Sandoval return as SP'ers expected to have an opening day rotation slot. Houck is out until 2027 (maybe Sept '26, but I'm not counting on that.) The leaves all these pitcher trade candidates. 29 Crawford 25 Dobbins (may start the year on the IL) 23 Harrison 25 Fitts (may be a pen arm in 2026) 23 Early 22 Tolle 22 Perales 23 Holobetz 22 Clarke 19 Valera 19 Fajardo 22 Aita 22 Monegro, 22 Tygart, Neely& McShane, 23 Ingrassia & 24 Wehunt, (would be throw-ins) 19 Cason (wont be traded) 18 Travieso (wont be traded) 17 Delzine (wont be traded) Future dept (just drafted/wont be traded) Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson, Foutch, Morgan Others: Criswell & Winckowski (likely pen arms with minimal trade value, anyway.) Sandlin, Paez & Mullins are Rule 5 guys that look like pen arms for 2016. (They may have some trade value.) Uberstine, Drohan, Anderson, I Coffey are AAA depth arms not on the 40 man roster. (little trade value, if any.) Pen arms that might be included in trades: Kelly, Guerrero, I Campbell. I think we keep Murphy, Song & Moran as AAA pen depth. That's a lot of arms to choose from, and I'm sure many GMs like many of them. How much do they like them? How much does Brez like them? My guess is we see a Duran/Abreu, Fitts/Harrison & Sandlin/Mullins type trade.

I agree with Bell. A #1 is basically a top 20% SP'er. (Top 30 among 150 SP'ers in MLB.) A number 2 is about a top 20-40% SP'er, and so on... Yes, a team can have 2-3 #1's. To me, and "ace" is sometimes used to define your best pitcher. He could be your best starter on a team with 3 #1, of the best pitcher on a team with nobody higher than the #3 ranking (#40-60%.) The term "ace" is also used to define a #1 SP'er, so there is some mixing of the terms. I rate Ryan as a solid #2. Yes, Early could be a #2 as early as 2026, so I would not include him in a Ryan trade, and Ryan's drop off to end this season is worrisome, as well. I'd rate Keller as a #3, but a reliable one who is borderline #2, when you rank all the top 120 SP'ers in MLB. He's in the top 60 in most categories. When you attempt to rank the SP'ers by stats or metrics, the sample size choice is arbitrary. Is it last year, last 2 years, last 3 years.... Do you discount for aging pitchers in obvious decline, or add value to a younger pitcher who had a bad season early in his career that is part of the chosen sample size being used. If you use fWAR over the past 3 years, it will devalue a great young pitcher who has just 1-2 years in a rotation. It will reward a 36 year old pitcher who had a great year at age 34 and then sharply declined. That being said, for most pitchers, I like the 3 year sample size, and if I want a 120 SP'ers (I avoided using 150) sample size from 2023-2025, I need to use 240 IP as the minimum IP. Here is what we come up with for fWAR: 15.9 Skubal, 15.3 Wheeler, 14.9 Webb, 12.8 C Sanchez & S Gray 10.8-12.4: Gausman, Valdez, Sale, Cease, Kirby 9.9-12.4: Skenes, Crochet, Fried, Luzardo, R Suarez 9.4-9.6: Lopez, Wacha, Gilbert, H Brown, C Ragans 8.7-9.1: Snell, Gallen, Peralta, Glasnow, Eovaldi 8.2-8.7: Kikuchi, Ryan, H Greene, Bibee, Castillo I don't really see anyone that jumps out as not belonging, but there are a few pitchers I would say belong in the top 30 not listed here. If you use ERA- not fWAR, we see a lot of juggling, and some 13 new names, but many of the same guys top 30: Skenes, Skubla, Snell, Yamo, Bradish Sale, Wheeler, Cole, Sanchez, Fried Senga, Crochet, Kershaw, King, Burnes Greene, Steele, Eovaldi, Abbott, Ragans Webb, Imanaga, Peralta, Valdez, M Kelly Blanco, Glasnow, Woo, Suarez, Wacha I kinda think the ERA- list has better pitchers than fWAR, but maybe I'm biased. Here are some selected #2's by ERA- Lugo, Gray, Pivetta, Lopez, Castillo, Bello, Bassitt #3's: Keller at #63 (98 ERA-) Rodon, Eflin, Gio and those at 100 or more: ERod, Cease, Houck, Crawford, Mony #4s: Jon Gray, Heaney, M Perez, Alcantara, Severino, Gibson Sox pitchers and winter targets by fWAR, not listed above: 33. Keller 7.9 (63rd in ERA-) 37. Flaherty 7.6 38. Eflin 7.4 39. Bassitt 7.3 44. M Kelly 6.9 51. King 6.1 54. Bello 5.6 (53rd in ERA-) 67. Monty 4.9 71. Houck 4.7 (80th in ERA-) 85. Crawford 4.0 (86th)

Assume equal K rates, GIDP and outs that advance runners.

Some other players that may be available for a trade, due to a cheap owner and or an increasing contract: PIT: Keller $16.5m>$18M>$20M ($15.4M AAV) MIA: Alcantara $17M & club option '27 for $21M ($2M buyout) $11.2M AAV AZ: K Marte $15M>$12M>$20M>$22M> $22M> $11.5M player option in '31 ($19.4M AAV) TX: Seager $31M x 6 (#32.5M AAV ) Semien $26M>$26M>$20M ($25M AAV,) Nate: $25M>$20M ($25M AAV)

Would you rather have a .300 batter with a .350 OBP or .275 and .375? How about .300 with 10 Hrs vs .275 with 25 Hrs? (Same OBP)

How about the three Rays with one last team option with buyouts? 1B Yandy Diaz $12M (No buyout) 2B Brandon Lowe $11.5M ($500K buyout) RP Pete Fairbanks $7M ($1M buyout) We certainly will not trade for all 3, but they'd all surely make our 26 man roster, as it stands now. Diaz over Lowe or Casas. Lowe over DHam, Grissom and Sogard. Fairbanks over all but 3-4 pen arms likely to make the 8 man pen. It's hard to know who the Rays covet, but we know they don't want high-prices players. Even Duran at $7*M then 2 arbs might be too expensive for them. They might like guys like Rafaela and Campbell, knowing they can trade them, when their contracts grow larger. They might like DHam, but if they do, not as the centerpiece of a deal. Would DHam & Sandlin get un Lowe? Romero & Mullins? Casas for Diaz? Sandlin or Mullins for Fairbanks? Paez & Monegro? Campbell & Mullins for all three? (I'm not sure I'd do that, unless we got Fairbanks or Lowe to extend.) I'm sure they'd like a young pitcher or two, but I'm not sure we'd give up a real good one for a one and done player(s.) I doubt Rule 5 guys like Sandlin or Mullins get it done. The Rays have 40 man roster issues, too.

Abreu or Rafaela better fit that situation, or we involve a 3rd team. If the names Garcia, Arias and Tolle was legit, it does point away from Duran for Ryan. I'm wondering if the name Tolle was the reason for Brez's "no." You can't just sub two next tier pitchers to replace Tolle (or Early) but maybe MN likes some guys we'd be surprised with.

These teams may not want farther away guys like Valera, Clarke, Fajardo or Holobetz. They may think Perales is too big a risk. If it comes down to Early or Tolle, I'm thinking long and hard before accepting the deal. I'm not sure how much these teams value Harrison, Fitts or Dobbins and Crawford, but one of them could be included instead of a top prospect. One point that jumps out to me is that we have so many pitchers that almost any GM will be attracted to one or two of them. The other major point is that we have to be sure we don't give up the "wrong one," but who are we to know which one that is. Early looks like he's the keeper, but a month ago, we'd have said Tolle. Having another tier beyond these guys listed that includes Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson, Travieso & Delzine, but too far away to seriously consider does help ease the idea of parting with 1-2 young pitchers. I did not mention throw-in types like Wink, Sandlin, Mullins, Uberstine, Paez and maybe Aita, Monegro & Cason..

I think he was gonna be safe, anyway.

Yup and Sale's is N/A

I think we will try to couple Duran with Harrison or Crawford or maybe even Dobbins before we allow Tolle or Early into the offer. I'm not sure what sort of trade value Perales has, until he's shown he's back healthy, but including him is another option. Guys like Criswell, Sandlin, Mullins and Uberstine have little trade value. It seems like teams no longer beg for far away, high upside pitching prospects, anymore, but Valera, Fajardo, Clarke and Holobetz all have some serious upside potential, but I'm not sure I want to sell low on any of them. I do think our management team needs to identify who they can part with, and just hope he's not the next Priester.

Yes, I expect that. I'm hoping not Early or Tolle. We'd need two with Abreu or Rafaela.

I agree I'm reaching on Buxton. The main point of getting him was to help MN cut salary and make the return for Ryan not be as high. I'm not saying Buxton is a salary dump player, but I did include Hicks or Masa in the deal, which offsets some of the risk on Buxton. Yes, Buxton may decline, but he has gotten better while Duran did not. I'm fine with not including Buxton. How about Duran, Crawford, Hicks, Wong and some young pitchers for Ryan, Jeffries and Lopez?

I really like Duran. Honestly, I do. I also see he has enormous trade value and should add more value to another team without 3-5 OF'ers on their roster without him. I think the step "down" to Rafaela/Anthony/Abreu is minimal, and Duran at DH is less value to us that Duran as a LF'er to another team. (We also have Yoshida, Romy, Campbell and other bat first players on the roster.) We desperately need a #2, since I think Gio bolts or is to uncertain, if he returns. We desperately need a corner infielder who can hit 30+ HRs. If Breggie bolts, we need two. Abreu, Rafaela and Anthony have more years of control and project to improve not decline. We have Jh Garcia, Campbell and emergency OF'ers Yoshida and Eaton as depth. We have little corner IF depth and while we have rotation depth, we need a strong #2. Tell me where I went wrong on Duran? It's because I value him highly, I think we can get a #2 SP'er or a big bat corner infielder for him. ( A bigger bat but without the speed and maybe a worse defender.)

If you had to pick one projected OPS for 2026, which would it be? Closer to A or B? 2025 OPS .859 Anthony: A. 775/ B .850 (I pick B) .786 Abreu: A. .775/ B. .850 (B) .774 Duran: A .800/ B .725 (A) .741 Story: A. .700/ B. .775 (A) .708 Rafaela: A. .650/ B. .725 (B) .726 Narvaez: A. .675/ B. .750 (B) .696 Yoshida: A. .725/ B. .800 (B) .674 Mayer: A. .700/ B. 775 (B) .580 Casas: A. .750/ B. .825 (B) .826 Romy: A. .750/ B. .825 (A) .500 Wong: A. .625/ B. .700 (B) _____________________ If returns... .821 Bregman: A. .750/ B. .825 A) .838 Refsnyder: A. .775/ B. .850 (B as strict platoon) .790 Lowe: A. .725/ B. .800 (A)

Good post, max. I don't think we can say "if." We simply have to add one big bat, even if Breggie returns and two if he bolts. I'm actually for adding 2 big bats w Breggie or 3 w/o, but that ain't happening.

Casas has a history of doing okay v L (.796) and is almost identical to vs R (.814) Rafaela has reverse splits, but since he's not very good both vs L and R, it might not matter much. With an OF full of lefties, he does not help, when we face RHPs. Abreu & Romy both improved measurably vs LHPs, but we can't be sure that continues.

My bad.

I'm not comfy, but I'm not comfy having no big hitters in our 2026 projected line-up, either. Plus, we'd be getting Ryan.

Agreed, but if the give up Buxton and or Lopez, they'd still save a lot. (Or, we pay a chunk of Yoshida's deal.)

They also had more high end batters in '24 than '25, especially among top PAs players. Split Season Listed by most PAs '24 and '25 .834 Duran '24 (a top hitter in '24 NOT '25) > .774 Duran '25 .741 Story '25 .871 Devers '24> .821 Bregman '25 and .905 Devers for 2 months in '25 .708 Rafaela '25 .664 Rafaela '24 (black hole in '24 not '25) .758 Wong '24 (black hole in '25 not '24> but we had .726 Narvaez '25 .847 O'Neill a top hitter in '24>>> replaced by .859 Anthony '25 .781 Abreu '24 >>.786 Abreu '25 (near the same as '24) .765 Yoshida '24 (near a black hole in '25) .826 Romy '25 .905 Devers '25 (traded away) ______________________________ .830 Ref '24>.838 in '25 .659 Toro '25 (black hole) .>706 D Smith ('24 near black hole) .800 Casas '24> .664 Campbell '25 (black hole) .633 E Valdez '24 + .723 Romy '24 > .697 DHam '24 (became a black hole in '25) Here's another way of looking at it: worst OPS in 2024 or 2025 (200+ PAs) We started the 2024 season with 2 guys that went on to be blackholes and Wong became one the following year. We started 2025 with Campbell as a soon-to-be black hole. It was 2 to 1. 2024 EValdez .633 in 223 PAs was the starting 2Bman opening day '24 (See DHam below) 2025 Toro .659 in 284 as a sub not a starter 2024 Rafaela .664 (no longer a black hole in '25) Starting CF'er 2025 Campbell .664 was staring 2Bman in '25 Borderline Black Holes: 2025 Yoshida .696 2024 DHam .697 took over 2B

I think we have to expect further decline from Duran.

I guess that settles that. If he'd waive the 10/5 thingy, maybe add Yoshida and a few $million and call it even?

For how many years have we heard criticism about the 2-3 "black holes" our line-up seemed to have year-after-year? With all the 2025 injuries, we saw it happen, again this season, but the reality is that our line-up was one of the most balanced in MLB. Let's start with the reality of a league with a .719 OPS, this year. (It was .734 in 2023 & .758 in '19.) One big help for the Sox was having a catcher that his .726. Many teams had a black hole from that slot. Only 17 out of the top 37 catchers by PAs had an OPS over .719. The Sox did end up with a black hole at 1B, due to the Casas injury, but Lowe was acquired in AUG and topped the .719 mark with a decent .790 OPS. Rafaela fell below the .719 mark, but it's hard to view 11 points under average as a "black hole." Even Yoshida managed to get his OPS out of the "black hole" range (.696) Our black holes in 2025 were: .659 Toro (10th in PAs and the Casas back-up, until Lowe/Romy took over 1B) .664 Campbell (11th in PAs and one more failure at fixing the long-standing 2B issue.) .590 DHam (14th in PAs hardly matters much, but when coupled w KC: OUCH!) .500 Wong (15th and as a back up catcher with improved defense, maybe near acceptable.) Of course, we can't really count our #8 PA guy, Devers in the mix (.905,) so here are the rest: Listed by most PAs: .774 Duran (24 SBs) .741 Story (31 SBs) .708 Rafaela (20 SBs) .821 Bregman (46 XBHs in 433 ABs) .726 Narvaez (42 XBHs in 403 ABs) .786 Abreu (39 XBHs in 373) .826 Romy (35 XBHs in 341) .859 Anthony (Could be the key to '26) .838 Refsnyder (21 XBHs in 209 ABs) .696 Yoshida (just 15 XBHs in 188) .674 Mayer (13 in 136) .790 Lowe (just 9 in 100) In short, it looks like we have done a great job cutting way back on black hole bats getting near FT play, but now the problem has shifted to the lack of a couple big bopper bats blatantly bashing balls. If we can replace the Toro's, DHam's & Wong's with a couple top batters, maybe we can go places.