ERA does not account for park or defense, nor strength of opposing offenses.
I like ERA- and ERA+, too.
I was just responding to your point about the "other stats" not being based on actual numbers, FIP does.
I like FIP, but not as much as some on this site. I like ERA- and ERA+ more than FIP, but not way more.
If Gray is a #4 in ERA-/ERA+ and a #1 in FIP, I'd be fine calling him a very low 2 or higher 3.
If Bello is a 1/2 in ERA-/ERA+ and a 2/3 in FIP, should we can him a solid #2? I wouldn't, and that shows the limitation of stats. To me, Gray and Bello have been 2's at times, 3's at times and 4's at times in the past 2 years. Bello should be getting better while Gray should be getting worse. If they end up our 3-4, I'm fine.
I don't like either as our #2, so the bottom line- we agree. We just got there in different ways.
I doubt we get a #2, so we better max out on our 2 big bat additions.