moonslav59

One could have said the window opened, this year, and JH did spend way more than previous seasons, last winter, so that was a sign he is aware the window is open. The Devers dump kinda dampened that idea a bit, but some serious spending occurred and trends were upended. Bregman signed to the highest AAV in Red Sox history. Buehler signed to the highest AAV for a pitcher since Price. Crochet signed the second largest and longest Sox pitching contract ever. The total AAV signed last winter was by far the most in a very long time, if not ever. Yes, almost all was spent on 1-2 year deals, but we ended up extending Chapman before his deal ended. 31.6 Bregman ($40M counting deferred) 21.1 Buehler 10.8 Chapman 9.1 Sandoval 2.3 Wilson That's about $75M AAV during the same season we extended Crochet (28.3), Chapman (13.3), Anthony (16.3)& Campbell (7.5). We dumped the $30M x 8 Devers deal but took back $12M x 2 for Hicks ($10.3M AAV.) We do have some reason to hope JH is AWARE and will act accordingly, but I will not let myself expect it to happen.

Yes, the way the money is spent is crucial, and our FA signing record under Brez has been significantly less than stellar, but I do agree the Story's 2026 outlook is as risky or more so than any random FA signing at near his salary cost (AAV.) If he opts out, our infield would have 4 open slots with Mayer, Romy, maybe Lowe, Casas, DHam, Sogard and Eaton as the in-house possibilities. That scares the beJesus out of me, when you need to count on JH to fork over significant money to sign 3-4 solid infielders.

Even if PHI loses Schwarber, I doubt they'd want Masas, and I can't imagine them losing Schwarber and trading Harper, but I do think forcing Hicks on them could be managed. We'd have to give more than without Hicks, but saving some AAV money on the tax budget would allow us to add another big signing or two.

I'd prefer watching us "slay" DD's Phillies.

I agree, JH won't go wild with spending, but with 1 or 2 key trades, I think there is a way to add some high quality free agent signings and stay under the first or second tax line. The trades might need to involve saving a few $ million to help stretch the winter budget out enough to add 2-3 big signings over 1-2, and maybe we can get creative and dump Yoshida and/or Hicks by adding a prospect or two or taking back a lesser AAV contract, but I'm not counting on this aspect of our winter plan. To me, and maybe I'm oversimplifying things, we could get significantly better by just adding 3 major pieces and maybe 2 minor ones. I know "just" seems like too much to ask for JH. 1. Trade for a pitcher like Joe Ryan. (Maybe Duran is part of a 3 way deal to get him- maybe not. We do have guys like Campbell or Garcia and Clarke, Valera, Fajardo and Arias the Twins might covet enough.) 2. Sign Alonso or Schwarber (or trade for Harper or K Marte) 3. Sign Suarez, Polanco or Bichette (or trade for Harper, KMarte or ____?) 4. Minor signings like S Matz and Ref (if we trade Duran or Abreu) I saw a clip with Merloni saying the Sox are super high on pitchers with very high swing and miss rates on balls in the K zone, and that Joe Ryan is their guy. (I wasn't aware this is his strength.)

I get the "last man standing" point, and the enormous pressure JH was under to not let that "last man" bolt, but the fact is he did it- hand pried or otherwise. $300M/10 was not something to just waive off as an anomaly. Trading him, not long afterwards, seemed shocking, at the time, but in the grand scheme (or should I say sham) of things, he undid what he was "pried" into doing. I do think it was more him than Brez that made it happen, but it could have been Brez's suggestion. We've certainly made enormous strides with extending our own players- homegrown (Anthony, Bello, Rafaela & Campbell) and not (Crochet.) That's a great sign that things are changing on the financial side of the organization. It took a long time to wake up, but I think that might have had something to do with their previous record actually being pretty good on knowing when to let some key stars go. They had missed on a few (DLowe, Beltre and the biggies, Lester & Betts) but others were more nuanced (Damon, Manny, Bogey and others) or downright great moves (Ellsbury, Pedro, JD, CC & Agonand others) To me, this winter should be the strategic time to buck the trend and go large and long on a big bat. While the ones available have some flaws, the time is now. Schwarber (age and DH only) and Alonso (awful 1B D and a logjam at DH) are the tow big prizes. Settling on two from the next tier might be enough, but that would be two large and long deals after going almost a decade with none. Suarez might not need the "long" part, so he could be paired with Bregman, Polanco or Bichette, or we could trade for K Marte or some other bopper.

I've been hesitant on recommending the free agent route to solving our high need for a solid #2 SP'er. That need looks more stark now that Gio is gone and Bello morphed back into a #4 type SP'er by season's end. I've mentioned Merrill Kelly, more out of the fact that the Sox have not signed a DP'er to longer than 2 years since the Nate re-signing (which really looked more like an extension, to me.) Yes, we extended Crochet and Bello, and if you don't count Nates re-signing as a FA signing, we go back even farther to David Price. That's a huge trend to buck. I'm still thinking we trade for a SP'er and use the winter budget to buy bats.

I think many teams would take Casas, but they won't give up hardly anything, until his health is better known. Since we won't get much for him, we might as well roll the dice on his health. His arb cost will not be a hinderance. Hold onto Casas. We need a power bat. We need an upgrade at DH and 1B. I'm a firm believer the Sox have realized they should have traded Duran (or Abreu) last winter and will not repeat that mistake again. I would not be shocked if both get traded, and we bring Refsnyder back- flipping the 3 LHB + 2 RHB (1 w a reverse split) OF to a 1 LHB + 4 RHB OF. This would be very balzy, for sure. LF: Refsnyder (DH platoon possible)/Campbell/Garcia CF: Rafaela (Garcia) RF: Anthony (Garcia) I take that back: I would be shocked.

It wasn't really a spectacular play that ended the World Series, but it was a nice one by Betts. Kinda odd the the night before, Kike made the game ending DP. The Sox ghosts came out around Halloween.

Good example. It was very obvious and logical that DD wanted to and would have worked to extend or re-sign Betts but was not allowed to do so. He was almost forced to trade him in 2019, which is further evidence he did not have full control or the budget or the roster.

Can you point to one that says the GM has unfettered sending limits? My guess is they all sit down and workout a framework for a budget with the idea that if a GM wants to go outside the framework, he'll need approval from above. How that is done is a mystery. How many people have to say "Yes" or "No" may vary from tean to team. It does seem strange that this has never been revealed, that I know of. There have been times that higher ups get involved in negotiations and even visit pending free agents, but I'm not sure we've seen an owner do it, other than the NFL's Jerry Jones.

The Dodgers have a massive revenue stream. They make a ton of money. True, they could make way more, if they spent less, but all teams are out to make money. To those who say they "don't understand why owners don't spend more," look around. Min wage hasn't gone up in over 15 years. There is some outrage over this, but not enough to effect a change. Our outrage over JH not spending more will likely lead to the same result.

Had we just countered with $210M/8 or $220M/8, he might still be here. (Maybe Sale or Nate would not have been extended.) Maybe he'd have even taken $220M/9 and allowed us a lower AAV.

The big spending actually started in JAN '23 (before Brez) when Devers was extended to the largest and longest deal in Red Sox history. There are signs the spending trends has changed, but signing a large and long free agent deal needs to be the next step.

GA Tech made a nice run, this year, but losing at NC St probably knocks them out, unless they best GA in their last game of the season. Texas might have ended Vandy's unlikely run at the playoffs and put themselves on the fringes of squeaking in. MIA loss at SMU should drop them out of the top 12, but they cans till win their conference and get back in. 18 OKL probably ended 14 TEN's chances, and other borderline teams took care of business, yesterday: 13 TEX Tech, 15 VA and 16 Louisville all won. 21 MICH won and remains in the hunt, due to their last game vs 1 Ohio St. This might be what the first bowl rankings looks like: 1. Ohio St 8-0 2. IN 9-0 3. TX A&M 9-0 4. ALA 8-1 5. GA 7-1 6. Ole Miss 8-1 7. ORE 7-1 8. BYU 8-0 9. TX Tech 8-1 10. ND 6-2 11. VA 8-1 12. Louisville 7-1 ____________________ Teams with a real shot (not in any order) : GA Tech 8-1 CIN 7-1 Vandy 9-2 MIA 7-2 OKL 7-2 MO 6-2 (Very tough schedule) TX 7-2 MI 7-2 UT 7-2 USC 6-2

You gotta wonder if it's the Catholic rivalry that always makes these games more intense that they should be. ND cannot afford to get complacent, and yesterday's game kinda showed a crack in that area. We should win out, but we can't get into that mindset and put it all on cruise control, and if we want to advance in the playoffs we have to keep working to get better and better each week. That being said, it was great seeing Love bust out, and Carr was very efficient.

We can see on display the great importance of having the highest of high talent added to the roster when it becomes available. Not settling for the next level of talent. Not building a 26 man roster of all players slightly above mediocrity. Not going large but not long. You gotta go bold, and you gotta go large and long, at least at strategic moments in the arc of building a championship team. Yes, there are scattered examples of teams that did not go bold but still won a ring, but rolling the dice like that is getting tiresome.

Damn Dodgers!

I could see the Yanks bolstering their line-up at 3B while maybe downgrading at an OF slot. Maybe DET trades Skubal and signs Breggie. They never spent the money they offered him, last winter.

Extra innings...UGGHHH!

Yup, soon after DD said he wasn't trading any young pitchers.

Top ISO on the farm (110+ PAs) .321 Brito (He is also 4th in BB/K at 1.3!) .244 Andujar (8th in BB/K at 1.1) .207 Romero .204 Jo Garcia .203 Anthony & Jh Garcia .200 Mayer

Some DSL wRC+ numbers (110+ PAs) 179 Josue Brito (best in Sox system) 160 Edwin Darville (2nd best) 151 Louis Andujar (3rd) (Anthony was 4th at 146) 144 Franklin Primera (5th) 131 Jostin Ogando (8th) 128 Miguel Welch (9th) 116 Hector Ramos (21st) 110 Harold Rivas (27th)

If we are looking to go cheap at a few positions, we could always look to Cora's trusted platoon set-ups. Some possible slots could be: 2B or 3B: Mayer/Romy 1B: Casas (does not really need a platoon)/Romy or Lowe*/Romy DH: Yoshida/Romy or Yoshida/Refsnyder* RF: Abreu/ Refsnyder or Abreu/Garcia LF: Duran/Campbell or Duran/Garcia/Refsnyder* CF: Anthony (LF when not in CF)/Rafaela * If we bring him back

Worst team 3B fWAR: 27th CHC 0.4 24th PHI 0.8 23rd CIN 0.9 22nd DET 1.1 (made Bregman a multi year offer, last winter) 18th NYY 1.4