moonslav59

According to BTV, Duran alone could bring back an ace. I'm not sure I agree, but I do agree that we need a huge bat upgrade, and that's with keeping Bregman, Duran and Abreu! Trading a corner OF'er means we need two big bats and Breggie. Is JH up to that challenge? I doubt it. We'll be lucky to get one from Bregman, Alonso or Schwarber, let alone two. Expecting one of those three plus Suarez, Polanco or Bichetts is almost surely a pipedream, but IMO, it is what we need: 2 major bats and a solid #2 SP. That;s rock bottom minimum, or I'll be expecting a borderline playoff team in 2026.

I have to agree. Even if Bregman stays healthy all year, he may not provide much more total production than he did in 2025. Story led the team in many categories, and he's they guy most of us counted on for nothing in 2025. Now, we are supposed to expect a repeat? Duran declined from his awesome 2024 season, and may bounce back with an uptick, but can or should we count on it? Plus, many think he'll be traded for pitching. Abreu could stay healthy and move from a platoon to FT, but like others listed here, can we expect the same or more in 2025. Some here think Rafaela lucked out being close to the league norm OPS, so counting on him to be above .700 might be a stretch. Narvaez has an amazing rookie season, while Wong had a horrific season. Expecting the same from them in 2025 might be reasonable, but expecting more is probably pushing it. That leaves precious few slots to hope for major improvements to make up for the loss of Devers, which the tarde itself did not come close to doing on offense. Assuming Bregman returns... 2025 numbers 1B: .691 (16 HRs) DH: .823 (26 HRs with Devers boosting the numbers) 2B: .670 (12 HRs) We gotta think Yoshida/Romy will not hit .823 with 26 Hrs as the DHs, but with 4 OF'ers and no moves made, I do think it's fair to count on equaling these numbers with Duran/Anthony at DH. The thing is, most of us don't see us benching an $18M Yoshida to keep the status quo with Devers & Co's 2025 numbers. Trading Duran may fix the hole left by Gio, but now we still have these 3 positions to hope for significant boosts. If Yoshida/Romy ate the 2026 DHs, and if that's the plan, we need massive boosts from 2B and 1B. It does not take much to improve on .691 and .670, but we have to also make up from expected downticks at DH and some of the other I listed above. Alonso would provide a huge boost. Schwarber at DH would, too. Perhaps they are wishful thinking as would be adding Bichette on top of paying Bregman to return, but it seems to me we need one of these three to hope for any form of improved offense. And this assumes Mayer/Romy can slightly improve the 2B production. Another option might be to add two tier two players from Suarez, Polanco or maybe someone via trade, like Harper or K Marte. I'm not sure Suarez & Torres/ B Lowe/ W Castro would be enough, but with a solid #2 SP'er added, maybe it could be. We'd certainly need to see some boost from Anthony, Mayer, Campbell or Garcia, unless we see some major uptick from the 2025 veteran regulars.

That could be the issue that contributes to holding us back, but I'm not convinced of it, now am I convinced it outweighs the good things he has done and brings to the table.

Pedro was a pinto bean.

If liking it means at best an early exit from the playoffs, maybe.

That's what I am most afraid of. Bregman returning may not even keep us status quo on offense, which we sort of a weak area in 2025. We need a big boost and a Bregman return does not do that. Hoping on 650 PAs from Bregman & Anthony only adds about 500 PAs from their 2025 totals, and is a bit of a gamble that they will repeat 2025 numbers over 1300 PAs. Can we count on Story and Duran to repeat 2025? They were our next two big bats. Then there is the Devers loss. He did get 334 PAs in 2025- the most of any Sox player at DH and 8th ranked in PAs despite an early June dump. The offense situation need is dire. Breggie, Hoskins and a returning Ref is not enough, and if we trade Duran for pitching, it may not even be equal.

The OF depth would also be fine by trading one. We'd still have Garcia and Campbell as well as Refsnyder likely willing to return if offered a decent contract. (The Sox also view Yoshida as an OF option, despite our objections.)

Duran was worth way more last winter. Did you mean to say "Can't lose Bregman, Duran and Story...."

Well, they fell way below the second line. Maybe they genuinely expected to spend at the deadline, but everything fell through the cracks.

In terms of planning the infield, it would be nice if we could put Story at 2B. I don't think we can avoid Brez & Co thinking Mayer can fill the SS or 3B position. I think we non tender Lowe and can't count on Casas to be the wire to wire 1Bman for 2025. That means we should look to fill the 1B slot (Alonso, E Suarez, Hoskins?.) It also means we'd have to fill the 3B or SS slot that Mayer is not filling. (Romy remains depth.) This slot could be filled with E Suarez or Bregman at 3B or Bichette at SS, but I don't see many other clear upgrade or status quo options than these three on the FA market. I'm assuming we fill the SP'er slot with a trade involving Duran or Campbell plus others. Joe Ryan will make close to what Duran makes in arb costs, but MIN might be looking more at longer term options like Campbell, Arias, Garcia or Tolle/Early/Clarke/Valera/Fajardo. A Duran for Lodolo trade saves us about $3-4M. Doing both would be a great idea, to me, but I seriously doubt we do it. Imagine Crochet, Ryan, Lodolo, Bello & Sandoval with a strong rotation depth. Spend the winter budget on 2 major bat signings: Bregman & Suarez/Hoskins? Suarez & Alonso? I'm far from expecting this and find een hoping for it to be near pointless, but I think this could be done, while keeping us below the second tax line. Find a way to dump Masa and or Hicks and we can get below the first tax line.

Skubal will cost more that what BTV suggests.

But vs RHPs? .618 in '25 .729 in '24 (an outlier?) .667 career (434 PAs) His bat problem extends beyond being a strict but strong side platoon.

120/4

But how did they envision getting under the tax line with Hicks aboard? Or did they not?

I've thought of Duran at 1B to allow for Anthony to play LF FT, but I keep coming back to his value being higher to another team as an OF'er. A Masa-Romy or Masa-Campbell platoon at 1B does not excite me, unless it to make room for Schwarber to be our DH.

He's an arb one player projected to make under $2M. It's a no-brainer he's back.

He's better as a DH, but w e have $18M tied into that slot already.

Romy ain't going nowhere! The real question is do they think he did well enough vs RHPs to hand him a FT role? He his .718 in 2025, which is near the MLB norm. At worst, he can be Ref's platoon replacement at DH or platoon with Mayer at 3B or 2B, or platoon with Lowe of someone else at 1B. He's a keeper.

Possibly. With Devers, it will come down to spending his money, or not. I'd rather have Alonso & Bichette/Polanco/Suarez than Devers and Bogey.

Would Campbell and two from Clarke, Valera and Fajardo be enough for MN? Would we then be able to trade Duran, Crawford & Early for KMarte? Sign a big bopper bat at corner infielder and bring back Matz & Ref and call it a winter. SP: Crochet, Ryan, Bello, Sandoval, Harrison/Dobbins/Tolle/Fitts/Criswell/Perlales/Uberstine RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slatten, Matz, Weissert, Hicks, Bernardino, Murphy/Wink/Moran/Kelly/ Sandlin/Guerrero/Mullins/Campbell 1. L Anthony LF/RF 2. S K Marte 2B 3. L Abreu RF/R Refsnyder LF/DH 4. R Alonso 1B 5. L Yoshida DH/R Romy DH/Garcia RF 6. R Story SS 7. L Mayer 3B/ R Romy 3B 8. R Narvaez C 9. R Rafaela CF Bench: Wong, Romy, Ref, Garcia/Sogard/DHam/Eaton

I'd trade Masa f someone took 33% of his deal. I think Duran is worth much more to another team as an OF'er than to us as a DH. That is why he has been my number one suggested trade candidate. That being said, our offense needs all the help it can get, and trading away one of our best offensive players seems counterintuitive, especially if JH won't pay to replace his and Devers' lost bats.

I think using analytics is a good thing, but it should not be the be-all-end-all factor. I'm sure Cora has informed Brez on wanting Bregman back and all the reasons why.

I'd be okay getting Bichette, but I'm not sure if he's better than Story at SS defense. I'd rather have Mayer at SS, too, but he can't seem to be able to play 150 games.

Is anybody still torn up we lost Bogey? Even if we got him for $160M/6, I'm not so sure it would be a great deal. His bat has shown real decline, and it started year one of his new deal- not the "back-end" like we always hear about.

Agreed. There was an article somewhere that asked if the Phillies can keep the "window open" with all their financial cots about to skyrocket just to keep the status quo. Sounds like a familiar DD tune.