moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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It would be costly to replace one of our OF'ers "in kind" through free agency. I realize it would be very costly to replace Bogey "in kind" as well, as SS are more costly. My point was that at this moment, we have better prospects at SS than OF. That could change. I get your point, though.
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We have no OF'er on the farm horizon. That's one reason I have JBj slightly ahead of or tied with JBJ. I like Marco as a SS, and Chatham could be a surprise. I won't argue with anyone having Bogey ahead. The age is a good point, but he will cost more too.
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...But their ability to solve that is on the scouting and development staff... Agreed, but one would think Sox admin has been trying to do the very best in this area from day one, and now that the system is harder, I'm not sure it's something we can count on to improve. Yes, Groome and Beni look better than TBall, so there is hope we are moving in the right direction, but we probably won't be getting 7th and 12th picks for 4-5 more years, at least, so even the same good scouts can only do so much with lower picks..
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Porcello turns 31 the winter after his final contract year. He will be looking for a big contract and probably as many years as he can get. After the Lester fiasco, maybe we'll learn something about extending pitchers over 30, but at some point there is a cost vs risk point where you have to say no. I hope we can keep Porcello, but at what cost? If keeping Porcello means we lose JBJ or Betts, then it's not an easy choice. Pomeranz turns 30 the winter after his final year. It's hard to project where both of these guys will be once the reach free agency, but my guess is Pom will cost less- much less. His contract runs out a year earlier than Porcello's. If you could only keep 3 or 4 of these guys, who do you choose? Here's my choices: (in order) 1) Betts 2) Sale 3) JBJ 4) Bogey (just about tied with JBJ) 5) Porcello 6) Pomeranz (Note: these rankings can and probably will change by the decision time.)
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Corner IF future.... http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/04/system-restart-17-corner-infield.html
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So, how does that translate to us not enjoying a walk off HR by Papi?
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People who love stats, numbers and metrics can also greatly enjoy the game for what it is: the greatest game on earth! I'm not sure why some think being a stat geek and being able to enjoy the game are not compatible.
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I'm really impressed with the progress Barnes has made over the last 2-3 years. There was a while there where he was pretty iffy. What a huge boost to the pen he can be, if he keeps this up. I always thought Kimbrel would be a top 5 closer for the 3 years with us. He's looking like that now.
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True, but even with one good on the DL, there will be a squeeze, especially if we try to keep the two guys out of options on the 25 man roster: Hembree & Abad.
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I never meant to imply trading Taylor. I'm thinking that if everyone is healthy and no phantom DL is used, we should try to trade Abad. I've been saying that for months. Another idea would be to trade Ross & Abad or Ross & Hembree for one better RP'er. That makes room for Taylor, Scott, Workman or others and clears up the issue with RP'er without options keeping perhaps better RP'ers in AAA. I realize the goal of keeping as much depth as possible, but when Smith and Thornburg return, we'll be squeezing some very good talent down to the minors. Assuming one of ERod, Wright or Pom takes the mid-long relief role, that leaves 6 RP'ers for the 25 man roster: 1. Kimbrel 2. Thornburg 3. Smith 4. Kelly 5. Barnes 6. ??? Without options: Hembree & Abad With options: Ross, Taylor, Scott, Workman, Ramirez, Johnson and others
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If our staff ever gets fully healthy, some big decisions will need to be made. I have to think these guys are locks (9): SP: Sale, Porcello, Price SP/LR: ERod, Wright, Pom RP: Kimbrel, Smith, Thornburg Highly Probable (2): Barnes, Kelly (Both have options remaining) Probable (1): Ross (has options remaining) Out of options: Hembree, Abad Others with options: Taylor, Scott, Workman, N Ramirez, K Martin Johnson, Kendrick, Owens, Elias, Havliand We might try a two for one trade to make room for Hembree, or we may just trade Ross or Hembree or create a phantom DL for someone.
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No doubt! The rotation is still the least of my worries, but they have looked like our weak point, so far. Out of ERod, Wright and Pom, nobody has made a claim to the rotation once Price returns.
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But, we are getting some key hits.
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As bad as the offense looked early, we can see some nice numbers now... OBP: .714 Vazquez .429 Moreland .400 Betts .390 Beni .375 HRam .368 Bogey .362 Young .353 JBJ .333 Pedey .333 Holt SLG: 1.083 Vazquez .583 Moreland .431 Beni .429 JBJ .412 Leon
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As bad as our starters have looked as a whole, I don't think it's as bad as the starter ERA shows it is. Sale has been "Chris Freakin' Sale": 2 great/1 very good 7 IP 0 ER 7.1 2 ER 7.0 1 ER Porcello has not been great: 2 OK/1 horrific 6.1 3 ER 6.0 3 ER 4.1 8 ER Wright:not really that bad: 1 very good, 1 OK, 1 horrific 6.2 4 ER 1.1 8 ER 6.0 1 ER ERod has been okay: 1 good/1 bad 5.0 4 ER 5.1 2 ER Pom has been okay: 1 very good/1 bad 6.0 1 ER 4.1 5 ER Overall, we have a 54% QS%. Starts: 2 Great 3 Very Good 1 Good 3 Okay 2 Bad 2 Horrific -Or- 6 Good to Great 3 Okay 4 Bad to Horrific Yeah, it's not the start we hoped for from this highly touted rotation, but it's not as bad as it looks. Those two starts with 8 ERs each hurts the numbers badly.
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I wouldn't have called it an error.
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Nice post. I agree on your assessment. I'll add that not only does our 6-9 slots in the line-up have great potential, I think that even if they don't do great, they will be better than about 25 other teams' bottom of the orders.
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Johnson's issue was in his head last year. He's still shown good stuff over the last couple years. I guess I'm seeing a blip on my radar with Johnson approaching the airport.
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He might be better than Pablo defensively at 3B, but it's hard to tell. Marco has not played 3B that much in his career, and Pablo's defensive profile is hard to pinpoint after such a horrific 2015 season on defense. It's too bad Marco and Brock's best defensive positions are 2B. It's the position locked up the longest. I've been a huge fan of Marco's since the trade, but I'm pulling hard for Pablo to play better.
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I was thinking the same thing about posters getting upset over a tiny sample size from Beni. In the long run, I'd like to see him bat #1, so he can steal some bases in front of good hitters.
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Wright has had many more good starts than bad. I just went with the odds. I don't put much stock into a players last 2-3 starts as a guide to my expectations going forward. He has a career QS% of 51, but last year it was 63%. It might have been higher had he not gotten injured. Have faith in the guy. He's a good pitcher who happened to have a tough game last week.
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I'd like power from 3B as well, but it's not like Pablo is a major power source, even when doing well. He's only had over 16 HRs twice (last time in 2011) and over 27 2Bs twice (last time 2010). Marco has hit 20 HRs in his last 1,000 PAs in the system, including 9 in 356 ABs last year. Marco has 58 2B+3B in his last 1,000 PAs as well. That's not far from what Pablo gives us. Pablo has 13 HRs and 27 2B+3B in his last 500 PAs (26HR/54 2B+3B pace) and 29 Hrs/56 2B+3B in his last 1200 PAs (24 HR/50 2B+3B pace for 1,000 PAs). I'm not happy with Marco's defense at 3B either- not that Pablo has returned to his old decent-defending self (yet?). As much as I love marco, I'm sticking with Pablo. I'll give him a long leash, too. At least his few hits have been big ones!
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I meant can we recover and be highly competitive from 4-6 years out. It won't be easy, but I don't see us being bad, even if we lose Porcello, Bogey and Pomeranz.
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Only 1 ER though, so I'll take 6 IP 1 ER over my projection of 7 IP 2 ER.
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Maybe he's begun to turn thing around after settling down after the first.
