moonslav59

Whenever you have two guys pitching like aces and an offense like ours, you have a shot in the playoffs. That's why we are still close to the best record in the AL. If we can acquire a solid #2 type this summer and just one of the guys left over turns things around. I'd bet on ERod with Buch as an longshot.

Swihart would be the headliner on a package, in theory, to get a solid pitcher. I have contended that Blake's value as a starting catcher on another team is more than his value as a platoon LF'er/3rd string catcher for the Sox. Please do not take this to mean I value Swihart less than any of you do. I still think he is a great young talent with high value. My second major piece would be Devers. I realize that Shaw is still not a sure bet at 3B, and with HanRam possibly being our DH next year, trading Devers could be viewed as risky. However, I think Moncada's ultimate landing spot might be 3B, 1B or DH (with LF as another choice). We also have Sam Travis and Pablo Sandoval in the mix at 3B/1B next year, if Shaw falters. I think these facts essentially mean Devers is all but blocked. Again, this does not mean I devalue Devers. I just see his value as being greater for another team, and that is a foundation for making a trade offer. So, my choice for making a serious offer for a solid #2 type SP'er would start with Swihart and Devers. To improve our chances at getting the best (non rental) SP'er out there for this portion of a package, we could do one or more of the following: 1) Take on a high salary pitcher or add another high salary player as a salary dump (like Mike Lowell was in the Beckett deal). 2) Offer someone like Castillo or Pablo with just about all their salary paid, assuming the other team wants one. 3) Widen the package with a vet or two, if the team is looking to seriously compete next year (such as Holt or Kelly/Buchholz/Barnes/Elias/Layne) 4) Widen the package with mid-level prospects such as... Kopech, Owens, Johnson, Lakins, Light, TBall, Stanki/ K Martin/C Acosta Marrero, Hernandez, Dubon, Chavis, Longhi, Ockimey or maybe even Travis Basabe or Yoan Aybar 5) Offer cash I'd try hard to do any of the above, before I part with Moncada, Benintendi or Espinoza. Note: just because a guy like Sam Travis is ranked 5th in our system, doesn't mean his value is equal to other teams' #5 prospect. Not many teams have 4 top prospects like ours.

I realize Young has a poor history vs RHPs, but the guys in the midst of putting together 2 straight pretty good seasons. I know he hasn't hit 20 HRs since 2011, but he did hit 20+ 4 times in his career. Out of 100 OF'ers with 450+ PAs since 2015, Young's .808 OPS places him 29th. I'm not saying he's great or will continue over .800 the rest of 2016, but I feel pretty good with him in LF vs RHPs and very very good with him out there vs LHPs.

1) We may keep Hanigan, especially if we end up trading Swihart. 2) The total "savings" off our current payroll would be $16M Ortiz, $13M Buch, $9M Uehara and $4M Tazawa would total $39M, but since we are already over the luxury tax limit by about $10M, and it's uncertain if Henry is willing to pay an even stiffer tax next season, we may not have as much to spend as we think. 3) Luckily the luxury tax limit is supposed to go up significantly next year. You are right, we don't have room to repeat the mistakes of Sandy, HanRam and Castillo. If we assume we only have $30-40M to spend next year, I can't see us spending it anywhere else but on pitching. I suppose we could make a trade or two using our top prospects and get cost-controlled players, which would allow extra spending on offense, but I'm strongly averse to trading Moncada, Benintendi and Espinoza unless we get something very very special in return.

I'd rather part with Swihart and any two below our #7 prospect. I might consider Swihart, Devers and choose two or three from Dubon, TBall, Owens, Johnson or Kopech for Teheran & Vizcaino or Cervenka

I totally agree. Right now, soxprospects.com projects our 2017 pitching staff as such: Price, Porcello, ERod, Wright, Buch/Kelly Kimbrel, Smith, Barnes, Hembree, Layne, Ross, Elias There's a shitload of holes here. These holes will cost millions to fill and or several top prospects in trade... or both.

Plus, wasn't there doubts about how he got hurt? That he lied about where and when he got hurt?

Nomar had 5 or 6 really good to great seasons. I'm thinking Bogey will beat him on longevity alone, but even if you go back and look at Bogey's best 6 year stretch, my guess is he'll have a pretty even WAR total than Nomar's best 6 year span.

I do. That's why they paid so much for Young. We also have Holt returning at some point.

Here's a possible look at our 2017 line-up, assuming no major acquisitions on offense: 1) Betts RF 2) Pedroia 2B 3) Bogaerts SS 4) Bradley CF 5) Ramirez DH/1B 6) Shaw/Moncada 3B/1B/DH 7) Moncada/Young/Benintendi/Swihart LF/3B/DH 8) Young/Swihart/Benintendi LF/DH 9) Vazquez/Hanigan/Swihart C Certainly, this is not as good as a line-up with Papi, but it's still a plus offense.

Here are the current worst teams by record in MLB and their best pitchers: MN- No SP'ers with an ERA under 5.00, except Pat Dean who has a WHIP over 1.41. The only 2 RP'ers having decent years are 30 year old Fernando Abad and 31 year old Brandon Kintzler. ATL- 25 year old Julio Teheran as been discussed (2.93/0.989), but there's also 23 y/o Matt Wisler (4.23/1.181) and 25 y/o closer Arodys Vizcaino (2.22/1.235 but with a 13 K/9 rate). There's also lefty RP'er (26 y/o) Hunter Cervenka (3.10/1.180 and 12.0 k/9) SP- Tyson Ross is hurt, but there is lefty 27 y/o Drew Pomeranz (2.88/1.173 and 10.7 K/9) and 39 y/o closer Fernando Rodney who has yet to allow an earned run in 23.1 IP (0.857 WHIP/ 8.1 k/9). 29 y/o lefty Ryan Buchter is off to a nice start (1.86 CIN- Dan Straily (27) 3.66/1.195, Brandon Finnegan (23 lefty) 3.61/1.312 OAK- Sonny Gray has been hurt and not pitching well, 36 y/o Rich Hill is on the DL, but they have quite a few RP'ers doing well so far this year. BB has a history of trading RP'ers often: Ryan Dull (26) 2.31/0.800, Sean Doolittle (29 lefty) 2.67/0.926, Fernando Rodriquez (32) 2.65/0.971 AZ- I doubt Greinke is even up for discussion, so all that's left are 4 RP'ers: Tyler Clippard (31) 3.65/1.378 and 10.2 K/9, Daniel Hudson (29) 1.73/0.846, Jake Barrett (24) 2.16/1.040 & Brad Ziegler (36) 2.93/1.446. LAA- I don't see anyone worthwhile that is healthy and doing well, except RP'er Cam Bedrosian (24) 1.61/1.299 and 9.7 K/9. PHI- 23 y/o Aaron Nola 3.51/1.134/9.9 K/9 and Jerad Eickhoff (25) 3.40/1.172 are doing very well. Vincent Velasquez (24) is on the DL 3.65/1.265 and maybe a couple RPers Hector Neris 11 K/9 and David Hernandez 11.5 K/9. MIL- Zach Davies (23) 3.88/1.181, Junior Guerra (31)3.81/1.178 & Jimmy Nelson (27) 3.92/1.353 plus RP'er Tyler Thornburg (27) 2.60/0.759 and 12.7 K/9 rate. I haven't even heard of some of these guys, and I'm no expert on other teams' players, but maybe someone from this group can become available and eventually help us.

Yes, and .725 is respectable on it's own, but when Swihart returns, we can probably do better than that.

Agreed. Hopefully, Benintendi and/or Moncada can make the 25 man roster and take up some of the slack at DH, 1B, 3B, LF and wherever else we may need a boost offensively. I think we will need all available financial resources to find a SP'er and replace Uehara and Tazawa.

I'm not trying to beat a dead horse, but picking up guys like the two you mentioned would have been so much easier during this past winter. The overpay needed to pick up a decent starter near the deadline is always way too high. I'm not saying I'm against picking up a 2 month rental, but parting with a top 6 or 7 prospect to get one would really piss me off.

I totally agree, but I do think our offense will still be plus next year even after adjusting for the park factor. The budget factor will also be much tougher than many imagine. Replacing Papi will be very costly, even if we "replace" him by greatly improving our pitching staff.

Wow! Some of you guys are tough on ERod. I think he deserves at least 5 more starts, before considering a demotion.

Even if Bogey slows to last year's WAR "pace" the rest of this season, it would mean his WAR would be ... 3.9 so far + 2.6 (60% of 4.3) = 6.5 6.5 would equal Nomar's 3rd best season according to fangraphs. His best seasons were: '00 7.6 '98 7.3 '97 6.4 .99 6.3 '03 5.8 '02 4.8 '06 2.0 '04 1.5 I'll still place my money on Bogey having a better career. If never tops a 7.6 WAR, so be it.

While I totally agree we need a very solid starting pitcher to realistically be a top contender, I think using starter ERA is misleading. We play in a hitter's park. Our starter ERA - is 104, which is not very good at all, but it places us 14th not 19th. 6th in the AL. Our WHIP by starters places us in the same place- 14th and 6th. It's going to be costly, but if we want to win this year, I feel we'll need a quality SP'er.

Thanks for the summary. I do think we need to look beyond just this year, and I realize getting a 23 or 25 year old is inherently riskier, but I think we need to look young not old, and as long as the kid is better than what we have right now, it may also be enough to get us over the hump this year. In theory, I'd like a very promising, young but ML ready SP'er and a veteran RP'er doing well this year.

I'm pretty happy with Young and his .915 OPS in LF. Although he is more of a platoon player, I think once Swihart gets back, we'll be more than fine in left. (Note: Young has actually faced more RHPs than LHPs this year and still is over .900!)

Well, the weird thing is Shaw wasn't "getting the job done" before he got called up last year. He was actually doing kinds badly the first half of 2015, and his numbers at AA and AAA were not that impressive, especially for a 1B/3Bman.

The kid deserves a longer look.

Would you give Dubon and Lakins?

Career 46% CS% is the best we;ve seen from a Sox catcher in I don't know how long. Let's hope he returns to form after his surgery. I think he was at 38% in the minors.

We have enough guys in the OF already, and when Holt returns, I can't see Brentz ever getting a look, even if he was hitting .375 at AAA.