moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Getting someone for just the playoffs is a seriously flawed plan. Plus, how many Super Bowl MVPs have gotten big contracts and flopped? We may have gotten Pablo for the playoffs, but I think Sox management expected decent to plus play during the year.
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My biggest worry going into this season was the pen. It's not that I didn't have high hopes in Barnes, Kelly & Hembree to take up some slack from the departing Uehara, Ziegler and Taz, but it was hard for me to imagine all 3 doing well and nobody else doing surprisingly poorly. So far -so good. Adding Taylor and Workman to the mix of options is also a very big boost, but nothing compared to the potential Smith and Thornburg's returns could mean to our pen. I'd love nothing more than to be proven totally wrong about my pen expectations, but remember, I said it was not "weak but was the just the weakest link."
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Looking good for Workman. I hope he gets a shot.
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If Pablo ends up facing a lefty RP'er, that's one thing, but starting him vs a lefty is criminal.
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Seriously? Put all the names in a hat, and you can't do worse. Pablo's OPS vs LHPs recently: .423 2017 .465 2015 .563 2014 Out of 250 MLB players with 250+ PAs vs LHPs since 2014, Pablo is the worst at .516. 250th out of 250, and you ask who can platoon with him? I'm not even talking about his defense either! Although Hernandez bats LH'd, he has had decent splits in the minors vs LHPs. When Holt is healthy, he has slightly better splits vs LHPs, even though he bats LH'd. Rutledge is near ready. He can't be worse, and is a better defender than Pablo. Marrero can even hit lefties better. Matt freakin Domingues has a career .653 OPS vs LHPs and is a better defender at 3B. I could probably go down to AA and find someone better. We can't do worse than the worst batter vs LHPs and the worst defenser at 3B since 2014.
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Good, then put a slower guy with a worse OBP up first. Sounds logical... NOT!
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This goes back to my not understanding why they signed Sandoval in the first place. IMHO the guy manning 3B for a contending team should be able to carry at a dWAR (there I go using WAR. Ugh) of at least 0.0 - something he hasn't done since 2011 and has done only three times in his career. He was decent in 2014. He had a +3.5 UZR/150 and a +4 DRS. 2015 was night and day: -21.9 UZR/150 -11 DRS (So far this year, he's at -16.3 UZR/150 and -4 DRS.)
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Well, at least hitting against RHPs is the larger split. It was over 67% of the games last year. Plus, he might PH and play in the games where a lefty starts but is replaced. I'm far from happy with this reality, but it seems like the Sox refuse to look at Pablo as nothing but a platoon player. I will not be too happy, if Pablo plays 1B or DH and hits .732 as a platoon hitter vs RHPs either. (That's his split vs RHPs since joining the Sox back in 2015. However, that is not a number that screams out for replacement either. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the guys sucks vs LHPs and has no business starting vs one, unless we have nobody else who can play 3B. There was much talk about Pablo's decline before coming to the Sox, but on offense, that was almost entirely fueled by his numbers vs LHP, which all but fell off a cliff. His .805 OPS vs RHPs from 2013-2014 placed him 6th out of 41 3Bmen with 400+ PAs vs RHPs in that two year period. If the guy could just hit somewhere between .732 and .805 AND was used exclusively as a platoon player (preferably at DH or 1B), then maybe he could actually be a slight plus to the team.
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MLBTR... Red Sox left-hander David Price will throw a 45- to 50-pitch bullpen session Monday as he tries to work back from forearm trouble, per Ben Standing of MLB.com. Price still seems a ways off from making his 2017 debut, but a positive showing Monday would put him in position to face live hitters sometime soon. “Once we get through [Monday’s] work session and kind of begin to map out a little more of a structure on a calendar, I think we’re at that point [of facing batters],” said manager John Farrell. “Anytime you get to the number of pitches thrown that will be tomorrow, you can start to foresee a progression to hitters and ultimately to games, but we don’t have that in place right now.”
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Yes, missing 17% of games is significant.
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We've averaged 1.5 regulars out per daily line-up. While injuries are a part of every team's season, we've had a revolving door of sorts. I'm not making excuses. Injuries are only part of the story, but I do fully expect this team to still finish in the top 5 in runs scored.
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True, but the fact is his stock was as high as ever.
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Plus, his value as a starter to another team was much higher than his value here as a sub. With Marco, Travis, Rutledge and Young in the fold, there was no compelling reason to keep him.
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Yes, getting Moreland has worked like a charm, so far, especially with HRam's injury forcing him to DH only. However, 3B is still our biggest question mark in the field and line-up combined.
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Me too. That's one reason I was puzzled we went after a 1Bman (Moreland) this past winter, instead of a 3Bman. I thought we'd be better off with Pablo at 1B or DH starting this year- not next.
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Now, do people agree he should lead off? (Even when Pedey returns.)
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Shaw for Thornburg looks bad so far, but it's early.
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Maybe this, if Moreland tanks, gets hurt, or looks like a worse hitter than Pablo by late May... vs RHPs: 3B: Hernandez 1B: Sandoval DH: HRam vs LHPs: 3B: Rutledge 1B: HRam DH: Young We could see this next year: vs RHPs: 1B: Pablo DH: HanRam vs LHPs: 1B: Travis DH: HanRam
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It couldn't get much worse than 2015 Pablo. That was the worst defensive 3B I have ever seen,
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Someday Bogey's power will improve to the point where he can hit 3rd or 4th, but for the last 2 years, I've thought he was best suited for the 2 slot. Beni may have to improve on his instincts, but with his speed and ability to get on base, he should lead off. I get the concern about putting pressure on a rookie, but they're already batting him way up in the order anyways, so I don't see much difference in pressure at the 1st slot. I'm not sure there's any rush to get Rutledge back with Marco looking okay. It looks like Holt's role has diminished, as I predicted (and suggested). I wonder what his trade stock is now. I do think Rutledge is probably a better platoon with Pablo at 3B. He's likely a better fielder at 3B than Marco and Pablo, and should hit lefties better than Marco, but I'd have no issue with giving Marco the platoon, even though it's not his best split.
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Before today's game, we ranked 18th in runs scored- just 5 runs from the middle of the pack. This really isn't that bad, when you consider all the games missed by injury, illness and bereavement leave. Only Moreland has played in every game. Everyday players... 18 Moreland 17 Beni 16 Pedey/Pablo 15 Betts 14 Bogey/HRam 6 JBJ (16 Young -should only play vs LHPs)
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Remember all the people blaming our offensive woes on the lack of timely hitting? Sox leaders in very tiny 2017 sample sizes: High Leverage (10+ PAs): 1.029 Moreland .798 Sandoval (Leader in High Leverage RBIs with 6) .748 M Betts .730 Pedroia .673 HRam .650 Leon .615 Bogey .607 Beni 2 Outs RISP (7+ PAs): 1.515 Beni (leader in RBIs here with 8) 1.155 Pablo (2nd in RBIs with 5) 1.029 Pedey .944 Betts .311 HRam Late & Close (9+ PAs) 1.038 Moreland 1.010 Betts .808 Leon (6 RBIs -Late & Close leader) .733 Young .701 Beni .615 Bogey .539 Pedey .508 Pablo (but 2nd in Late & Close RBIs with 3)
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Of course they are, but people are saying they want him to be be benched or are close to it based on what he has done in this tiny sample size. I am trying to point out that if we just platoon him, we'll get the best out of him while also being able to see what Marco can show us hitting against his split advantage. Benching Pablo because he's not hitting, is ignoring what he has done vs RHPs- not just in this tiny sample size of 2017, but also in 2015 and the years prior. vs RHPs pro-rated to 650 PAs: 2015: .266 18 66 (.744) 2014: .317 16 81 (.824) 2013: .281 20 99 (.786) Pablo's decline in SF was largely fueled by his dropping off a cliff vs LHPs. He has done pretty well vs righties right on through the tough times.
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Even vs RHPs? 2017 Sox vs RHPs pro-rated to 650 PAs: OPS Player BA HR RBI 1.433 Vazquez .556 0 97 .939 Moreland .327 10 53 .893 M Betts .340 12 87 .800 Benintendi .288 10 85 .742 Sandoval .233 41 124 .721 Bogaerts .333 0 73 .665 C Young .268 0 14 .649 Hernandez .278 0 34 .616 Bradley Jr .235 0 68 .615 Pedroia .280 0 60 .555 HanRam .224 0 62 .411 B. Holt .133 0 0 .302 S Leon .115 0 0 If we want to improve our offense vs RHPs, we don't bench Pablo (as of now anyway).
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Patience is a virtue. I'm glad we were patient with JBj and Lackey. Maybe we were too patient with others. The time is right to platoon Pablo, but I'm a long way away from suggesting we bench him FT.
