Losing HanRam & Pablo's contracts the same year Sale, Bogey & Porcello are up for extensions makes keeping 2 of the 3 reasonably possible. There's a chance to keep all three, if we have already filled the shoes of Kimbrel, Pomeranz, Young, Moreland and Ross from within the system.
That might be a lot to ask for, but only Kimbrel has a major role right now.
I could see "the cliff" being 4 years away, when we will already almost certainly be significantly over the luxury tax but not at the $20M over penalty stage. After 2020, we have these players coming off the books but needing replacement or extension:
Betts
JBJ
Wright
Smith
Vaz
Leon
None of these guys are "fluff" like Pablo will have been the year before. Take Betts or JBJ plus Vaz and Leon out of the previous year's projected line-up and what do we have?
2019:
1) Beni LF
2) Bogey SS
3) Betts RF
4) Devers 3B
5) JBJ CF
6) Pedey 2B
7) Travis 1B
8) Dalbec DH
9) Swihart/Vaz/Leon C
Bench: Hernandez, Chatham/Longhi/Ockimey/Marrero/Matheny
2020:
1) Beni CF
2) Travis 1B
3) Bogey SS
4) JBJ RF
5) Devers 3B
6) Pedey 2B
7) Dalbec LF
8) Swihart C
9) Hernandez DH
or, take out JBJ and insert Betts.
Yikes!
We'll need a lot to go right for 2020's team to compete for a ring.