moonslav59

That is the one reason for grooming Moncada to stay at 2B, but I'm not sure he will ever become an average fielder at 2B. I still think his best spot may be LF, but I'm no expert on positional projections on players, especially ones I've never seen play. I think Holt's best position is 2B, but I don't want him having to play FT anywhere (assuming Pedey gets hurt). We also have guys like Hernandez, Rutledge, Marrero and Dubon that could end up at 2B, if Pedey falters.

We may try it with Panda next season, when we may need to avoid a heavy luxury tax. The free agent market is not very good next year, especially for SP'ers, but maybe we can trade for a high-priced SP'er or prospects for a cheaper one and use the "cap space" on offense ad RP'ers.

MLB.com does not have Castillo listed on the 40 man roster. We have 39 listed, including the 5 players on the 15 day DL (Holt, Swhart, Young, Rutledge & Hanigan. The 3 players on the 60 day DL do not count against the 40 man roster (Pablo, Smith & Workman).

Agreed. It's very rare that players fast-tracked out of need do well; you are right. I trust Sox management to judge when these two are ready, and they may have to decide to promote them before they want to, such as they had to do with Swihart last year and Bogey at 3B in 2013. If Holt can return soon and play well, we may be able to hold off any forced promotion. If Brentz keeps doing well, they'll be no rush on Benintendi. If Moncada is needed at 3B, 1B or LF, there will have to be a period for him to learn a new position well enough to not be embarrassed at the ML level. I'm not sure how long that period might take. Barring injury to Pedey, Moncada's only use to us this year may be as a DH or PH'er in September.

Agreed. We could probably trade him now,i f we paid all but one dollar of his remaining contractfo r a bag of used balls.

Yes. I thought he was off the 40-man roster, but soxprospects.com still has him listed on the 40 man. Anybody know for sure what his roster status is right now?

I forgot to put him with the pre-arb players. I went back and added him. Thanks for the eagle eye.

Here's a look at some "what ifs"... We got: $217M/7 D Price (w/opt out) 8-4 4.68 1.7 WAR (29th) We might have gotten... $207M/6 Z Greinke 10-3 3.61 2.2 WAR (14th) $130M/6 J Cueto (w/opt out) 11-1 2.06 3.4 WAR (3rd) $110M/5 J Zimmerman 9-4 3.81 2.0 WAR (20th) $90M/5 J Samardzja 8-4 3.59 1.0 WAR (72nd) $80M/5 M Leake 5-5 4.25 0.5 WAR (107th) $80M/5 W-Y Chen (w/opt out) 4-2 5.00 0.3 WAR (126th) $48M/3 S Kazmir (w/opt out) 5-3 4.52 0.6 WAR (101th) $70M/5 I Kennedy (w/opt out) 5-6 4.19 0.0 WAR (180th) $32M/2 J Lackey 7-4 3.29 2.0 WAR (23rd) $36M/3 J A Happ 9-3 3.42 1.1 WAR (68th) $16M/2 M Pelfrey 1-7 5.19 0.0 WAR (186th) $7.25M/1 B Colon 6-3 3.05 1.5 WAR (42nd) $7.0M/1 D Fister 8-3 3.21 0.7 WAR (87th) $6.0M/1 R Hill 8-3 2.25 2.0 WAR (17th) $11.5M/2 C Young 1-7 7.07 -1.2 WAR 232 out of 232!) $30M/6 Y Sierra n/a $5.0M C Lewis 6-1 3.21 1.3 WAR (55th) $25M/8 K Maeda 6-5 2.91 1.9 WAR (25th) $4.25M/1 T Cahil n/a $4.0M/1 J Blanton n/a $3.0M/1 M Latos 4-2 4.62 0.0 WAR (173rd) $2.5M/1 B Norris 2-5 5.80 0.3 WAR (130th) $2.5M/1 T Lincecum 1-1 5.00 0.0 WAR (184th) $2.0M/1 A Simon 2-6 8.77 -0.7 WAR (229th) $2.0M/1 R Vogelsong 0-0 1.29 0.2 WAR (146th) $1.7M H Noesi n/a $1.5M B Beachy n/a $1.5M J Turner n/a $1.0M/1 G Floyd n/a Note: Cole Hamels is 8-1 2.79 0.8 WAR (82nd) & Jamie Shields 2-9 6.22 0.0 WAR (183rd) and Shelby Miller 2-7 6.79 -0.5 (225th) Worst Sox: Buch 2-6 6.28 -0.3 WAR (220th out of 232) B4 today Owens 0-0 5.11 -0.3 WAR (217th) ERod 1-2 6.41 -0.3 WAR (215th) Elias 0.1 15.75 -0.2 WAR (210th) Kelly 2-0 8.46 -0.2 WAR (206th) O'Sullivan 1-0 7.84 0.0 WAR (166th) Note: we have 5 of the worst 26 pitchers by WAR out of 232 SP'ers with 0.1 IP +. Some winners and some losers on this list for sure!

True. We could be sellers at this rate.

I thought he wasn't on the 40 man roster anymore (like Craig).

Now that Castillo's contract does not count towards the luxury tax, let's re-look at next year's luxury budget numbers: Under contract for 2017 (7 players): $30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $13.75M Pedroia, $10.5M Kimbrell, $6.5M Young. TOTAL: $123.35M (Note: Castillo's$10.25M Castillo and Craig's $6.2M contracts do not count on the luxury tax budget, if they remains off the 40 man roster.) Options ( 2 players): $13.5M Buchholz and $3.75M Hannigan TOTAL: $17.25M Arbs (9 players): Bogaerts:$650K > ~$3.5M (1st of 3) Bradley: $546K > ~$2.7M (1 of 4) Kelly: $2.6M>$2.5M (2 of 3 arbs) Ross: $1.25M> $1.5M (2 of 3) Holt: $606K > $1M (1 of 3) Leon: $minor > $800K (1 of 3) Layne: $564K> $700K (1 of 4) Rutledge: $minor> $700K (1 of 3) Workman: $540K > $600K (1 of 3) TOTAL ARBS: ~$14M TOTAL of 18 players: ~$155M ($138M without Buch and Hanigan) The 22 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Brentz, Betts, Hembree, Barnes, Coyle, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Light, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Cuevas & LaMarre TOTAL: ~$12M Grand Total: $167M or $150M (No Buch/Hanigan) Now, add the $11M for player benefits and our Luxry Tax Total is... $178M or $161M That leaves us with about $11M to $28M to spend without going over the luxury limit as it is right now ($189M), however, the limit is expected to rise to over $200M aand perhaps closer to $210M. That would mean we'll have between $22M and $32M, or if we dump Buch and Hanigan between $39M and $49M to spend on added salary and be close to the limit. That may appear like a lot of money, but finding a replacement for Papi (DH, 3B, LF or 1B) will not come cheap. We will probably also need a solid number 2 SP'er and at least 2 quality RP'ers to replace Uehara and Tazawa.

No, they are far from meaningless. I'm all for fast-tracking Benintendi and Moncada, but I trust Sox management for the most part.

We started the season thinking Price, Porcello, ERod and either Kelly or Buch would make a solid 4. We figured that between the lesser of Buch and Kelly and Wright, Owens, Johnson, Elias and others we'd find one decent 5th slot pitcher. I've never been a fan of quantity over quality, but Wright did come through. I guess we shouldn't be too surprised both Kelly and Buch stunk up the place, but combined with ERod's injury and struggles, we are now in deep trouble. Some of us have been saying we needed another quality starter from day one, so it's not hindsight complaining here, but it's going to cost us more to get a decent starter at the deadline than it would have last winter.

I've been one of Buch's greatest supporters over the years, but after today, I'm done with even trying to defend even a glimmer of hope that he might possibly even begin to regain even a fraction of last year's form.

I believe that the Sox should have signed Lester soon after the 2013 season ended. Something over Homer Bailey money, say, 5/110 -5/120. I bet he would have signed in that range. Why they made the 70 mil offer is beyond me. Once that happened I lost confidence that the Sox wanted him back. Over 30 and all that. Just stupid decision making or feltching of the process. I agree, but Lester did say he'd take a hometown discount, and maybe the Sox viewed that as a Pedey-like deal. Anyways, they botched it by at least not immediately following up on their low-ball offer with something like $130M/6. I really think the chicken & beer thing got into management's head. I agree that trading him for Cespedes was plain dumb. Unless Cespedes indicated that he would sign an extension for reasonable money. This, to me, was the beginning of a cavalcade of f*** me moves. I think it was pretty clear Cespedes wanted free agency. That's why he had the no qualifying offer clause put in in the first place. Even if we did get to extend him, it would have been at FA cost. I hate trading good talent for players making FA money. It's easier to just sign a similar FA. I believe that after purging Lester it made even more sense to keep Lackey as he was a legit #1 for The Angels and after surgery he was back to being a tough guy to face ( pun intended for my friends here on Talksox ). Sign Lackey to a three year deal at 13-16 mil/yr and wipe out the min. year and it could have been done. I think they felt without Lester, they wouldn't win it all the following year, so why not get what we can for Lackey. They must have figured 4 years of Kelly > 1 year of Lackey. Also, Lackey was part of the beer & chicken gate. We also traded Peavy for Hembree & Escobar. I had hoped for better returns for him too, but Hembree may end up helping yet. I agree that Miller to Baltimore for E-Rod was a good move. It looked like Miller, despite his contentment in playing here in Boston, was likely to get a 2-3 year deal at or about what the Yankees eventually paid him. I don't think that the Sox valued him that high. Although they extended Koji at relatively obscene money so it's hard to say. But Koji didn't get the years Miller got. The problem with blowing up the rotation is that it is very hard to build another one starting from scratch. Look at what we have now. I totally agree, and having just Lackey right now, would make a huge difference, assuming he'd have extended with us. My point was that once Lester was going to free agency, I thought the trades made sense. Plus, we could have outbid the Cubs for Lester anyways.

Let's look at a few players... Bogaerts: 1636 PAs in the minors (ages 17-20) 356 at AA (age 19-20) 256 at AAA (age 20) Betts: 1315 PAs in the minors (ages 18-21) 257 at AA (age21) 211 at AAA (age 21) Harper: 569 PAs in the minors 147 at AA (age 18) 84 at AAA (age 19) Trout: 1312 PAs in the minors (ages 17-19) 412 at AA (age 19) 93 at AAA (age 20) There are exceptions to most rules, but not many non-pitchers jump from AA to MLB and hit the ground running.

As a comparative use, I think it has value, but clearly they seem to overvalue everybody. The value they give seems to be somewhat close to "open market" free agent value, which almost always appears to be overpay as well, right?

Not much. That's my point. I don't hold a catcher responsible for not being able to catch a wicked knuckleball. Hanigan has always been viewed as a plus defender who normally hits LH'd pitching well.

You can always find example of the "experts" being wrong, but many more times than not, if a player is ranked in the top 15 or 25, they turn out to be good to great players. Also, I don't recall Castillo ever being ranked as highly as Moncada or Benintendi, but his age and play with Cuba might make this an apples to oranges comparison.

A lot of his defensive issues are about him trying to catch Wright.

Good read. No mention of Swihart due to his injury, but eventually his name will once again join the who will be our catcher discussion mix. I could see keeping 3 catchers on the 25 man roster, if one was Swihart, since he can play LF 9a high need area right now), but I think it's going to be hard keeping Vazquez and Hanigan both on the 25 man roster. It will make PH'ing for our weaker hitting catchers easier, but with a DH that only plays DH, and Holt still in rehab, we lack the flexibility many other teams enjoy. I just don't see 3 catchers as a likely solution.

True, except I've yet to see a rattlesnake in 9 years living in Sugar Land (a suburb of Houston). My wife's a teacher, and I volunteer teaching, so we both have summers off. We go to Maine every summer for between 3-6 weeks, so I found a way to get the best of both worlds. The heat here is stifling, but only for 3 to maybe 4 months, so it's still beats 5 month winters..

Until we get a name, it's hard to say "too much", but I agree, the package is a hefty one, so it better be a top quality pitcher with several years of team control.

The fans are not the only ones drooling over their new shiny toys, these two guys are very highly rated by national experts. Yes, experts have been wrong before, but not as often as some seem to think they are. The last time we had guys ranked this high, their names were Bogey and Betts. I'm not saying it's a lock we get two more players at their levels, but it's not a long shot thinking at least one of these two guys comes close to B & B. That would be a spectacular gain for this club. between Bogey, Betts, Bradley and one of the "shiny toys" doing well, we'd have an awesome amount of production at a very low contractual cost for a few years anyway.

I could see Moncada starting as our DH next season as he learns how to play LF, 3B or 1B well enough to be of more value there than at DH. I also think how well Shaw does the remainder of the season will dictate where Moncada may play next year. If Shaw struggles, we may see Moncada pushed into 3B, assuming Sox management projects he can be decent there defensively in such a short time period to learn the position. If Shaw does well, we may still want to move Shaw to 1B next year and slide HanRam to DH. There's also the Pablo question. I'm not sure Sam Travis will enter the battle next year, but his name should be mentioned. With all these names in the mix at 3B, 1B and DH, it makes me think LF is probably the likely landing spot for Moncada. Young has just one more year of control, and he could be traded easily, if the position is squeezed by Moncada and/or Benintendi. I don't see Holt as a LF option-only as depth. I do think Swihart could compete for the LF position or platoon LF with Moncada/Benintendi (and/or Young), if he's not traded. It might be hard to trade Swihart, until we know how gzood Moncada or Benintendi are. Lot's of choices to be made soon.