moonslav59

I want to add that I realize Buch has not put together a good ERA- and 26+ starts since 2010, so I get that taking on his option was a gamble, but he has had a good ERA= in 5 of his last 8 seasons, including 2 of the last 4. He's not too removed from his historic 2013 season, albeit shortened as it was.

I'm not trying to argue that Buch is some sort of iron man- clearly he is not, but he is actually not as fragile as many seem to portray him as being. Including minor league starts, here are the total GS'd by Buch since 2006: 06 24 (minors only) 07 27 (including 3 MLB) 08 26 (15 MLB) 09 32 (16 MLB) 10 29 (28 MLB) 11 14 (all MLB) 12 30 (29MLB) 13 18 (16 MLB) 14 28 (all MLB) 15 18 (all MLB) 16 14++ (all MLB) If you cherry pick 2011 as the starting point of your sample size, you could claim that Buch has not had more than 18 starts in 3 of his previous 5 seasons before 2016, but I would say that 60% is a sure bet he pitches just half a season. One could cherry pick from 2007 to 2010 and point out that Buch never started less than 26 starts in that 4 year stretch. Overall, since 2008, Buch has never had less than 14 professional basbeall starts in any given season. From 2008-2015 (8 seasons), Buch has started 26 or more times 5 times (63%). He's started 28 or more games in 4 of his last 7 seasons. Look, I'm not happy with Buch's 2016 performance, and I was as frustrated as everyone else when he went down with an injury last year (and 2013 & 2011), but he's shown he can pitch 27+ starts often enough that I don't think it's a slam dunk observation to think he's a cinch to get hurt every year. I was in favor of giving him the option, because even Buch at 14 games (the good Buch) is worth $13M at today's FA prices, and the chance he might give us 26+ starts was not out of the question. I also have noted in other threads that Buch has had 2 of MLB best ERA- seasons in the past 40+ years. The hope that he can still pitch like that was the tipping point in my opinion to keep him around another year. I also mentioned it was worth offering the option, even if we ended up trading him. That option is probably gone now, unless we pay part of his contract. I am still clinging to the hope that Buch will regain his old form and give us a strong half season, but I'm not at all confident it will happen.

I never said Betts "had to" leadoff, and I'd be fine flipping B & B, but I think from here on out Betts will have as good an OBP as Bogey. I kinda made the line-up as a compromise to Farrell's L-R hang-up. Personally, I'd bat Papi 3rd and JBJ 4th. Both do fine vs lefties, so just put 'em both up when it counts most. Maybe something like this: Betts-Bogey-Papi-JBJ-Pedey-Ram-Young-Shaw-Vaz (or flip B & .

We certainly had question marks this winter and spring, but with so much depth and flexibility, I was always confident our offense would be more than fine. Even though Sandoval did not work out, Holt struggled and got hurt, Castillo was demoted, Young started out slowly and Swihart lost his starting catcher slot, we never missed a beat. My other main point was that even if we ended up with a "black hole" or two in our line-up, we still looked to be better off than just about every other AL offense with the possible exception of the Blue Jays (pre-season outlook). In other words, the question marks we had were less severe and in less quantity than every other AL team, and we had more options than other teams to fill in, if some of the question marks turned into known failures. Shaw filled in nicely for Sandy. Holt did well, at first, filling in for Castillo.Now, Young looks like de Aza on steroids. Swihart looks to be a nice supporting left fielder when he returns. Vazquez has not hit well so far, but we have easily absorbed his lack of offense as expected. Having Hanigan, Leon and Swihart in reserve is a nice compliment. Having a 3rd catcher (Swihart) playing LF will allow us to PH for Vazquez late in games. I can't think of a Sox team with more flexibility and inter-changeable players since the Papi as near permanent DH era began. We have 3-4 OF'ers who can play Cf well. I'm not sure we ever had that. Shaw can play 1B or 3B. When Holt is healthy, we have a jack-of-all trades. Swihart gives us great flexibility at catcher and OF. Of course, I did not expect this great offensive start, but I was never afraid our offense would flop or be a weakness. It's always been pitching, since we lost Pedro, Schilling, Beckett and Lester. Getting Price was a step in the right direction, and Wright having a great season has enabled us to stay near the top of the league, but I still think we have a clear weakness to deal with at the trading deadline (or before).

Well said. I have always enjoyed your input on prospects. I share your excitement over this draft. I guess it's easy to become negative when so much of MLB drafting is a crapshoot, but Groome clearly has talent. At his age, I think immaturity is the expectation not the exception. I'm psyched by the pick.

The whole lefty-righty thing is over-rated. I can see not messing with the top 4, but I still like this line-up best: 1) Betts 2) Bogey 3) Papi 4) Pedey 5) JBJ 6) HanRam 7) Shaw(1B) /Young (LF) 8) Swihart (LF)/Shaw (1B) 9) Vazquez/Hanigan/Swihart ©

While I agree, Wright's doing pretty darn well even without anyone who can catch him.

I can see putting JBJ 5th.

None of the high school pitchers taken in the first rounds of the 2013, 2014 and 2015 drafts has made an MLB appearance to date. Jose Berrios and Lance McCullers are the only high school pitchers from the first round of the 2012 draft who have made MLB debuts. One reason I think 3-5 years is more realistic- maybe even 4-5 is better.

Remember all the posters thinking our biggest need was a bat?

I've always like Wright, and I was saddened that he never really got an extended chance before this, due mainly to injury and being blocked. I was a big fan of Wakefield as well and the knuckleball in general. I used to pitch knucklers in softball. Wright has perfected the art, but as we know, it is a pitch that is hard to throw really well over an extended time. As with many fastball, curveball and slider pitchers, one can "have it" one day and "lose it" the next. Let's hope Wright stays in this groove. The pass balls are frustrating, but I choose to think of it this way: if a pitcher is throwing a ball that is hard to catch, imagine how hard it is to hit! I remember arguing with softy the clown, who called for Wake's premature retirement after the Aaron Boone HR about it not being Wake's fault he throws a ball that is not onlu unhitable, but uncatchable as well. Imagine having a guy who throws a fastball so fast, the catcher can't see it and misses catching it often. Would we call the pitcher a bum?

I asked this question before- maybe on another thread- but hadn't Vazquez and/or Swihart caught Wright in the minors? If so, how successful were they then?

I shae the excitement, but it will probably be 3-5 years before we see him in Boston.

Over the last 365 days, the Sox place here in AL OPS (400+ PAs): 1) Ortiz 1.090 6) Bradley .919 (Isn't 471 PAs enough to believe?) 14) Betts .901 Amazingly the Sox have 3 of the only 14 AL players with an OPS over .900 since this date last year. 25) Bogey .836 31) Pedroia .818 37) Shaw .810 87) Holt .682 91) Ramirez .674 (Note: if Chris Young was able to continue his .852 OPS from his 318 PAs to 400, he'd have placed 20th.)

From 2004 to 2009, the American League OPS never strayed from a .755 to .776 range. Since 2009, we have seen the AL OPS dip to .706 in 2014, and basically stay within a tight range between .730 and .736 every other year. It is amazing how our 2016 team OPS of .839 ranks number 1 since 2004 (tied with the 2009 Yankees). The 2004 Red Sox are 3rd at .832, the 2005 Sox are 7th (.811) and the 2011 Sox are 10th at .810. The 2007 Sox placed 13th, 2009 14th and 2008 were 15th. To add to your point about individual Sox rankings, here's a look at the AL OPS leaaders: 1.149 Ortiz (He's having his best career OPS season and is over 180 points ahead of the number 2 guy- JBJ) .972 Bradley (What an amazing story. Even among those of us who always believed he could hit, this season has been shockingly great!) .969 Altuve .955 Machado .947 Trumbo .947 Trout .935 Cano .928 Hosmer .917 VMart .909 Saunders .908 Cruz .906 Bogey (12th in the AL!) 20) .870 Betts (I'm pretty confide3nt he ends up over .900.) 21) .868 Pedrois (Having the season we have hoped for over several recent seasons) 31) .805 Mike Napoli (Just had to throw him in here) 33) .802 Shaw (Still holding above .800 after over a third of the season has passed.) In summary, besides having the two best AL OPS guys on the same team, the Sox also have 3 of the top 12, 5 of the top 21 and 6 of the top 33 OPS guys in the AL! WOW!

Uehara is another example of success without velocity, but his control is off the charts excellent.

Well, Wright filled that roll, but even that may not be enough.

Yeah, 5.27 and 1.38 WHIP is pretty bad, but I think I like his chances of having a better 2nd half than Buch or Kelly.

We all pretty much know the MLB draft is very hard to rate, but I feel pretty good about this year's draft.

I do too, but maybe not for this season. One problem with having 6-8 guys fighting for the 5th slot rather than having 5-6 solid starters to begin with is that the trial and error aspect trying to find that one guy who sticks may take months and too many losses to be able to withstand. I started a thread on "that other site" titled "Too much Quantity and not Enough Quality" that addressed this concern. It kind of ties into my philosophy that it is hard to significantly improve a pitching staff by trying to acquire a "better" 5th starter than the one already in place. I know it's easier said than done, but it's better to try to acquire a solid 1-3 starter or a top #4 type starter and then move your current 4 to the 5 slot. For informational purposes, I'll provide a brief history of our rotation since 2003 (GS). 2003: Lowe & Wake (33), Burkett (30), Pedro (29) then we had Fossum, Kim and Mendoza fighting for the 5th slot before trading for Jeff Suppan. We even ended up trying Bruce Chen (2) and Ryan Rupe (1). 2004: We had a solid 5 with no injuries- Pedro & Lowe (33), Schilling (32), Wakefield (30) and Arroyo (29). We had Kim (3) and used Pedro Astacio(1) and (Abe Alvarez (1) 2005: We basically replaced Pedro and Lowe with Clement (32) , David Wells (30) and Wade Miller (16). Wake had 33, Arroyo had 32, and Schilling 11 starts. We also saw scattered starts from Geremi Gonzalez (3), Papelbon (3), Halama (1) and DiNardo (1). I'd say this season we had 5-6 solid starters, but none ended up with an ERA below 4.15. 2006: Was a mess. We did have some quality starters 5-6 deep, but some injuries derailed us. Beckett 33, Schilling 31, Wake 23, Clement 12, Wells 8. The replacements were better than we have now: Lester 15, Snyder 10, Tavarez 6, DiNardo 6, Jason Johnson 6, Kason Gabbard 4 then 3 from K Jarvis & D Pauley and 2 from Devern Hansack. 2007: A major similarity to 2004 was the fac t that our top starters pitched a lot of starts: DiceK 32, Wake 31, Beckett 30, Schilling 24 & Tavarez 11. With Tavarez, Lester (11) and Gabbard (7) sharing 5 slot duties, we were again much better off than 2016. Buchholz got 3 starts and Hansack 1. 2008: Our top 4 were solid- Lester 33, Wake 30, DiceK 29 and Beckett 27. On paper our #5 and down slots had some nice pitchers (Buch 15, Masterson 9 and B Colon 7), but we ended up having to acquire and use Paul Byrd for 8 key starts. Others used were Pauley 2, Bowden 1 and Zink 1. 2009: The experiment of signing Brad Penny (24) and John Smoltz (8) was a total failure, but I can see how management would prefer that plan to a round robin attempt at finding a kid in the system that will produce. I ahted the plan from the start. Other starters that year were Beckett 32, Lester 32, Wake 21, Buch 16, Dice-K 12, Masterson 6, Byrd 6, Tazawa 4 and Bowden 1. I'd still give the nod to these 5th starters and below than today's. 2010: Had a nice 6: Lackey 33, Lester 32, Buch 28, DiceK 25, Beckett 21, Wake 19 with Doubront getting 3 and Atchison forced to get 1. 2011: We started to get a little shaky after the 5 slot and ended up trading for Erik Bedard's 8 starts. Lester 31, Beckett 30, Lackey 28 (playing hurt), Wake 23, Buch 14, A. Miller 12 and Dice-K 7. Weiland got 5 and Aceves 4 2012: The shaky trend continued after the top 3 Lester 33, Buch 29 and Beckett 21 with Dubront getting 29, Aaron Cook (PLEASE!) 18, Dice 11, Bard 10, Morales 9 and Zach Stewart 2. 2013: The signing of Dempster was a severe overpay to add stability to the bottom of the rotation. Some say it worked, since we won a ring. Some say the trade for Peavy was a key to winning the ring. Buch's injury forced our hand somewhat, but here's the numbers: Lester 33, Lackey 29, Dempster 29, Doubront 27, Buch 16, Peavy 10. We also used Webster 7 (8.60 ERA), Aceves 6 (4.86), Workman 3 and Morales & Wright for 1 each. 2014: Back to being messy, but on paper we had a solid 5 to start the season-- Buch 28 (the ironman!), Lester 21 (traded) , Lackey 21 (traded), Peavy 20 (traded), RDLR 18, Workman 15, Webster 11, Kelly 10, Doubront 10, Ranaudo 7 aqnd Wright 1. 2015: Surely a rotation lacking top quality at the top: Porcello 28, Buch 18 and Miley 32. After the top 3 starters, we used Kelly 25, ERod 21, Owens 11, Wright 9, Masterson 9, R Hill 4, Breslow 2, Barnes 2 and Johnson 1. Our 2016 rotation might have been a lot better so far had ERod not gotten hurt. I liked our top 3 on paper: Price, ERod & Porcello. I felt pretty confident that Kelly or Buch would be a solid #4 and perhaps give us a solid #5 as well, but I didn't expect it to be this bad. I've always liked Wright, but never thought we'd need to value him as our #2 guy. Owens and O'Sullivan failed. I suppose Elias will eventually get a look. I doubt Johnson does at this point. My guess is we look outside the system in July.

I'm not saying we should DFA Noe or give up totally on him, but it seems obvious that at this point in time, he's not the answer.

I don't get the love of Noe either. I was also surprised we used O'Sullivan instead of other choices. I'm not trying to criticize Sox management, because I'm sure they knew more than we did when those choices were made. We do have our 40 man roster filled. We added William Cuevas and Sandy Leon most recently. This includes Pablo and Workman not being on the 40 man roster as he is on the 60-day DL. soxprospects.com does not have Carson Smith listed on the 60-day roster, so maybe there is one slot to be opened. Here are the 22 pitchers listed on the 40 man roster by seniority on the 40 man roster: Buchholz Tazawa Wright Uehara Workman (60 day) Layne Hembree Kelly Barnes Rodriguez Porcello Ross N Ramirez Johnson Owens Kimbrel Jerez Light Price Smith Elias Cuevas I certainly can see the call for someone like Robby Scott (0.96 WHIP at AAA) to get a chance. Opponents have a 0.631 OPS against Robby. Opponents have a 0.633 OPS against vs Varvaro. Varvaro has a 1.09 WHIP. I think we can find a way to get one of these guys a shot sooner rather than later, but maybe some on the list above deserve a shot first.

Thank you for re-focusing on matters related to the Sox. I'm hoping that we acquire a solid #1-2 type starter, but I realize the cost may be too prohibitive. We may end up settling on a solid #3 or 4 type. Hopefully that acquisition would move a starter to the pen. I realize that wishing that demoted starter can or will jump start the pen may be a dream, but I remain hopeful. Losing Carson Smith hurt our pen. I like Barnes & Hembree's contributions, and I'm hoping Elias may help in the weeks and months to come. I can see giving in-house options a chance before overpaying for outside pen help as being the right choice right now, but if the pen is still hurting by the end of July, we will almost certainly pick-up somebody useful.

I'm actually very happy we are taking a "long look". We should not be drafting lesser players out of some sense of urgency over the need to get SP'er help ASAP.

If a team claims a player off waivers and has a viable claim as described above, his current team (the "waiving team") may choose one of the following options: -arrange a trade with the claiming team for that player within two business days of the claim; or -do nothing and allow the claiming team to assume the player's existing contract, pay the waiving team a waiver fee, and place the player on its active major league roster. In other words, a team that claims a player off waivers, pays his contract-not the minimum, so Latos may clear waivers and become a FA.