moonslav59

On Holt: I love the guy and recognize the high value for having a guy that can play 7 positions. His role on a 25 man roster allows the manager to make other moves feeling safe that Holt is always there "just in case". However, with the departure of our DH only DH, and the addition of Hernandez, Swihart, Beni or Moncada will push Holt down the depth chart at a number of positions. He's already just the 5th OF'er, and he might be the 6th with a healthy Swihart. He might be the 4th or 5th option at 3B next year, depending on Pablo and Hernandez being on the 25 man roster. He may have slipped behind Moncada as the first back-up 2Bman. (Hernandez can play 2b too, like tonight.) He should never play 1B with HanRam, Shaw and maybe a newly trained Swihart. I prefer Hernandez at SS over Holt. Dubon is rising quickly. Where will Holt be the first guy off the bench, if any one single player goes on the DL? Maybe 2B depending on Moncada's readiness? This Holt-less roster has a lot of flexibilty and depth: (parenthesis not on this version of 25 man roster) Current projected starters in BOLD by me C- Leon Vaz Swihart (We can PH for our catchers late in the game with Swi on the roster.) 1B- HanRam, Shaw, Swihart? (Pablo, Travis) 2B- Pedey, Moncada, Hernandez, marrero (Rutledge) 3B- Shaw, Moncada, Hernandez, (Pablo, Rutledge, Marrero) SS- Bogey, Hernandez, (Rutledge, Marrero, Dubon) LF- Beni, Young, Swihart, Shaw CF- JBJ, Betts, Beni, Young RF- Betts, JBJ, Beni, Young DH- Swihart- Young, HanRam, (Pablo) looks deep and strong

I don't see Swihart riding the bench for too long with the Sox. If he's healthy next year, he's got as good a shot as anyone for the FT DH job, or at least vs RHPs (450 PAs a year there alone). If he can get a few scraggly PAs at catcher, PH'er when not starting, and some in LF, then he'd get over 500 or 550 PAs. I wouldn't call that a "utility" player in the true sense of the term. My call for him to maybe learn 1B or 3B was not meant as a road to a utility role, but more as a way for him to win a FT or major role in that one position. 3B is up in the air right now. Maybe the Sox want HanRam to DH next year. That would open up Swihart to have a good chance at winning that position. I realize the value piece that being a catcher entails. That's one reason I have suggested Swihart as a possible trade cadnidate, since his value as a catcher for another team is probably higher than his value to us as a DH, 1Bman, 3Bman or Lf'er... or "utility". Of course, I have not given up on him as our catcher of the future, and I have not anointed Leon as our catching savior, but with 3 pretty well-regarded major league ready catchers on the roster, I can see why a Swihart trade could be in order. I'll talk about Holt in my next post.

I know I'm being selfish, but I'm still hoping Papi has so much fun this year, his feet feel good at season's end, and he decides to come back for one more year. It really would work well with giving Beni and Moncada one more year without pressure to make up for much (some) of his loss.

Lot's of supposition and conjecture, but the event could have triggered the demotion. With how poorly Hanigan did, it makes me wonder what might have happened had Leon crapped out.

EE turns 34 in January. There's little doubt this is his last big chance to cash in. He's made under $30M for the last 3 years combined. At his production level, my feeling is, he's going to want to maximize his vale. I could be wrong, but why would he sign a 2 years deal that brings him to age 36? I suppose he could sign for 4 years at a higher rate than some GM's 5 year offer, but even a 4 year deal seems scary when he approaches 38 in his final year. Not every player is like Papi. Papi is a freak of nature. I'd love to have EE smack in the middle of our line-up, but these large and long deal have been killing us, and this one seems like there are red flags going up every where. He's basically a DH only. If he plays 1B in NL parks, we have to sit HanRam. That's not good. Even Papi didn't make $24+M. He barely made 2/3rds of that! Hes' right- handed....further "unbalancing" our team. If we truly have just $30-35M to spend, signing EE and taking Buch's option means no money left over for the pen. If we don't take Buch back, our rotational depth is weakened. Plus, just $10-12M might not be enough to add 1 quality RP'ers. My guess is we go after Beltran (bats S), Adam Lind (L), Martin Prado ®, K Morales(S), or Justin Turner (R but .915 OPS v RHPs this year) Maybe we can expand on a trade for an ace with the White Sox and get Abreu or Frazier. It doesn't seem like anyone sticks out as an obvious target.

I agree on Gardner, but I'm not sure how much they'll get for him. I agree on the going all out for youth movement and had hoped the Sox took that route when they had their big sell- off. That doesn't prevent them from trying to win in 2017 by signing a couple key players.

You get 450-500 just being a straight platoon who plays against all RH'd starters. If they can make him a LF'er, they can make him a DH- either FT or vs RHPs only as Young plays vs LHPs. Since Swihart is a switch hitter who seems to hit well from both sides, he should get some more PAs vs LHPs when an OF'er or HanRam needs a rest or is hurt. I'm not sure he could ever become a decent defensive 3Bman, but hat could also be an option. He'll have plenty of chances to win a FT job, if he can hit as advertised. He has much more offensive upside than Holt.

Like Is aid at the start of the season, all AL teams have bigger and or more weaknesses than us. They also had less in-system options through depth to try and fill those holes. Now, those weaknesses are coming to the forefront. Imagine if we were playing like the Jays right now! This place would be going ape s***. The O's have survived on smoke and mirrors long enough. The Rangers and Guardians look comparable on paper, but they have holes still. The injuries suck for the Guardians, but we lost our first half ace and our number one set up man was out all year. Our 4-5 starters lost their jobs. Our 1-2 catchers sucked or got hurt. Our 3Bman was beaten out. Lots of things went wrong for us, but we had the depth to cover just about every weakness, and the Pomeranz trade was insurance. We haven't clinched anything yet. There's a long way to go, but I wouldn't change places with any AL team right now, just as I wouldn't have day one this year.

I'm not doubting you, but I wish you could find the link.

I doubt they trade Swihart coming off an injury, but you never know I guess. I'm not sure an injury like his will significantly affect his value, but I can see us waiting on Swihart before making a deal. (That's one reason I mention Holt as a trade piece so often.) They definitely won't turn him into a utility player at this stage of his development. The only way he makes the big league roster coming out of spring training is as the starting catcher, which is obviously unlikely. He'll play every day somewhere. My guess would be the starting catcher in Pawtucket. I do think he starts the season at Pawtucket. I'm not sure the Sox are locked into making him their catcher. (That's one reason I have mentioned trading him.) I still think they like Vazquez more than Swihart, and Leon has knocked them both down a notch. Assuming Swihart gets healthy and he's living up to his offensive expectations, and he could learn to play 1B, I think he could get 500+ PAs without owning a position. Anytime an OF'er gets hurt or needs a rest, Swihart could play LF or DH (where ever Young does not play). He could DH or play 1B vs RHPs (where ever HanRam does not play). Even if he doesn't play 1B, he could DH vs all RHPs, if he proves he can hit well enough. If he can't, then trading him won't be a huge loss in the long run. He could catch here and there. I'd prefer to keep Swihart over Holt, but I doubt we trade either of them.

No, he's not. It's definitely a different mentality playing with the Sox rather than the Marlins or Dodgers. HanRam has matured a lot since the days we traded him.

I'm not for handing them away for nothing. I'm for trading from an area of duplication for an area of high need. We have Vazquez and Holaday. We have Hernandez, Young, Rutledge, Shaw, Moncada, Pablo and maybe eventually Dubon and Travis. We need better pitching.

Beni is left-handed. Or, were you thinking Pedey, Bogey, Betts, HanRam? We could try to stick JBJ in the top 4 somehow next year. Counting on Beni or Moncafa to be successful in a top 4 slot may be asking too much, at least to start the season. How's this? Pedey Bogey JBJ (vs RHPs) Betts HanRam\ we could slide Betts to 3 vs lefties and Young to 4th.

I'm not sure why we haven't used Hernandez more. He's shown he can hit everywhere, but has not had a large enough ML sample size to know. I think we keep Leon and Vaz, but we might have Swihart as the #3C and #5 LF'er plus maybe teach him 1B. He could DH, if his bat progresses. Shaw makes the team unless traded. I'd put him at 3B, until Moncada is fully ready to play there. I suppose Pablo could beat him out, but I seriously doubt it. So, counting Young as the DH/4th OF, Vaz and Swi, that's 11. That leaves room for 2 more out of Holt/Hernandez and Moncada/Pablo with Sam Travis as a possible mid season addition. I think it makes sense to trade Holt or Swihart, but not both. I suppose we could trade Moncada in a package to get an ace, but I don't see that happening.

I don't think we need to spend big money to replace Papi or to upgrade our rotation, besides, there's no top quality FA starters on the market. I think we can spend the money on the pen and maybe only the pen. That might mean we don't have to trade for a pen arm. I get what you are saying about the "crap shoot" aspect of acquiring relief pitchers, but getting RP'ers with better histories does improve the chances they do well with us. Stockpiling a few extra can't hurt either, since many of our pen arms still have options, so we can start them in AAA for later use. I'd still like to see an upgrade at SP'er. I like Pomeranz, but he wasn't my idea of a building from the top type move. I think we might see a trade involving one of our starters plus Holt or Swihart and maybe Devers or Moncada for a much better, proven SP'er under team control for several years. I could see something like ERod, Swihart, Devers and maybe Dubon or Owens for Sale or Quintana.

I'm very happy, but that doesn't mean I can't point out one downside to the placement of Pedey at the one slot. I said below that the speed is not related to his superior batting skills as a lead-off hitter. Certainly, I would not put Holt #1. Ideally, next year, I'd like to see Beni get his OBP near .380+ and lead off. That would allow Pedey to fill a key slot at #3 or 5. (I like Bogey 2nd>)

I don't see it that way. Pedey and HanRam have a lot of value to many contending teams. Of course, contending teams will not give up a quality ML player in return, unless they have duplicated value at a position, and not many have too many aces. Neither Pedey nor HanRam would net us an ace anyways, but as part of a larger package they might. More likely, they could be dealt for some top prospects, and then thos prospects could either be flipped or used to replace some of our prospects that are traded for an ace from a non-contender (like Sale). I see two players on our team that probably have more value elsewhere than here: Swihart and Holt. Both would get way more playing time elsewhere. I would try to trade one, but not both, as one will be needed for LF added depth.

Carl Crawford was also in tremendous shape. His off season workout regime was among the most strenuous in all of baseball. Look, I'm not writing off HanRam. He has been and still can be a great hitter. He's had injury concerns. He's had off years. He's had issues with defense. I realize every player is a "risk" to some extent, and I have no issues with those who feel the chances are good that he continues doign well for us over the remaining 2-3 years of his contract.

...and if Moncada gets a lot of playing time, we could see 20+ there too.

Worst of any realistic alternative on the team: Betts, Bogey, JBJ...maybe Beni, Holt or basically anyone but Papi or Shaw. Fangraphs base running index: 2016 -8.9 PApi -3.3 Pedey -1.4 Shaw -0.5 HanRam (Betts +9.4, Bogey +4.8, JBJ +4.7, Holt +2.6, Beni +0.9) I'm not saying these guys are better batters in the one slot. I was just commenting on the downside of putting a worse runner in front of our best 2 runners in the line-up. It's not just the numbers. I watch every game, every inning, every pitch. Pedey is not the runner he used to be years ago. 2015-2016: -14.0 Papi -5.3 Pablo -4.4 Pedey -3.1 HanRam -0.5 Shaw 2014-2016 -21.0 Papi -5.6 Pedey Last 5 years: -35.0 Papi -6.3 Pedey -5.3 Napoli -5.3 Pablo -3.1 HanRam -3.0 Middy -2.8 Vaz 2006-2011: 22.4 Ellsbury 19.2 Crisp 9.2 Youk 4.3 Pedey

I'd be happy to never see Hill play again for us. From day one, I thought Bogey would be best at #2. He lacks the power of Betts, Papi, HanRam & JBJ. I was fine with Betts at #1, because I do not like the idea of putting one of our worst runners (Pedey) up first. I still think batting JBj 8th or 9th is a mistake. I'd go with Shaw/Hernandez at 3B with Holt my choice before Hill. I hope Beni wins the lead off slot next year. That would go a long way at lengthening our line-up with the loss of Papi looming large.

I'll put our 6-9 hitters up against any other teams' 6-9 hitters. This one of the most balanced line-ups I've ever seen with the Sox...maybe the one with Hobson hitting 30 HRs from the 9 slot was more balanced. And, this isn't a "hitter's era".

I take thousands of positions. I'm bound to get a lot wrong. I get a lot right too. I was all for the Porcello extension and reminded people last year that the extension started in 2016 not 2015. I stuck with him all along. I have always said that I felt Wright would be successful, if given a chance. I thought he'd get it last year, but he got hurt before his chance. He fell into a chance this year and did great. I never gave up on JBJ. I called his sample size too small to judge even when it was over 500 PAs. I hated the HanRam and Pablo signings- too much--to long. I liked the Napoli signings but not the Vic, Drew and Dempster signings. I was dead set on not bidiing high for Ellsbury. I can name a lot of stuff more I got right, but I'm not afraid to admit when I'm wrong too.

Huge win! Porcello is doing so well. It would be nice for him to win the Cy Young, but I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't.

I'm not sure if I can go back to BDC to look, but I think I picked us to be the best team in the AL. I think I might have said 98 or 100 wins. I really don't remember. I'm not trying to hide anything. In 2013, I projected failure and we won it all. In 2014 and 2015, I projected winning the AL east. I'm oh for 3 going into this year.