moonslav59

To me, he is not better than Hernandez, Holt and even Marrero.

We have enough money. If we want stay under or very near the luxury tax limit, do you think $30-35M is enough to sign EE aand 2 solid RP'ers? Maybe $20-23M a year on EE and $5-6M each on 2 RP'ers?

Our bullpen needs one addition. I disagree. Minus Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa Add Smith and only one RP'er still leaves us at least one short. Remember, just because our pen looks fine now, doesn't mean it will next year. It looked awful for much of this year. Injuries are common. If a starter gets hurt, Buch will not be in the pen. If Smith takes a while to get over his injury, then what? I have little faith in Barnes, Hembree and Abad. Ross could decline. We need at least 2 very good RP'ers in my opinion.

Just because Ks normally correlate to low WHIP and "dominance" does not mean you have to be a high K guy to be dominant.

So, why is Porcello's WHIP lower than Kluber's even though he has a much lower K rate? Could it be because he pitched better? That when players did hit him, they hit it weaker. It must have been significantly weaker or way less BB/9, since even though more balls were put in play, he allowed less men on base. If K's are a sign of dominance, then BB's should be a sign of weakness, and Kluber walks significantly more.

You know perfectly well that if a trade is made for a TOTR pitcher it will cost at least one good position player. Talk has been going around that if the CWS do plan on rebuilding, it would be for 2020 and beyond. That might mean they could settle on longer down-the-road prospects over the likes of JBJ. Maybe, just maybe, they could take some mix of... Moncada or Devers Kopech or Groome Basabe Dubon and Shaw or Travis.

I don't disagree, but this is different than saying he's never been any good. Besides, .790 is actually a pretty significant upgrade over Shaw, especially 2nd half Shaw. Pablo's career split vs RHPs also blows Shaw away and is more than respectable (.835). Shaw is .753 v RHPs. I'll take .790 from Sandoval as a platoon 3Bman vs RHPs at age 30. I'm not saying I expect that, but right now, that might be the best we can get from anybody currently on the roster..

I like Marrero over Hill, but when and how would he be used? PR'er? He's good on D, but he's not a defensive replacement for Bogey or Shaw, is he? I think Holaday over Vazquez is a slightly better choice, but it's too close to disagree.

To me, it's too weighted with FIP (K-rates). There are damn good pitchers who get more guys out, give up less HRs and less runs, but just don't come close to leading the league in Ks. An out is an out. I get why people want to value stats that don't rely on park factors and team defense, but to me, it's not as important as ERA-, OPs against and WHIP. Those three stats trump WAR. When the vote for MVP (best non pitcher award), does anyone look at Ks? No, they look at OPS, HRs, OBP, BA, RBIs, SLG but hardly ever Ks. Then, why is it so important for pitchers? This isn't something I'm inventing or morphing into. I've always valued ERA-, WHIP and OPS against more than ERA, K rates and WAR. ERA- 70 Porcello 73 Kluber WHIP 0.99 Porcello 1.06 Kluber OPS Against .628 Porcello (.628H/.628A and .659 v RHB/.600 v LHB) .631 Kluber (.666H/.592A and .615 v RHB/.648 v RHB) OPS Against High Leverage .589 Kluber .598 Porcello ERA+ 151 Kluber 147 Porcello The one K-related stat I pay attention to is K/BB and Porcello blows Kluber away 6.10 to 3.98. Sure, K's are fun. A pitcher looks dominating. The batter looks meek and mild, but allowing less hit, less XBHs, less walks and less runs is what great pitching is really about. All in all, it's pretty darn close.

They may sign another bullpen guy but I'm sure that they are hoping for a healthy Smith return. Our pen sucked just about all year, until very recently, and much of the turn around was due to Ziegler, the return of Uehara & Tazawa, and the rise of Kelly and guys like Scott. To think we can lose Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa and replace the three with one guy coming back from serious injury, Carson Smith plus maybe one other guy, i think is taking a huge risk. Now, it may be easier to fix a pen issue mid season than a big offensive issue or a SP'er need, but we can't neglect the pen this winter. Here's how I see it, assuming Buch is back next year: RP1 Kimbrel RP2 C Smith RP3 Buch or Pom or Wright RP4 Ross RP5 Kelly RP6 Barnes RP7 Abad/Hembree/Scott/Elias There's lots of hope and promise here, but there is a strong chance some of these guys fail or get hurt.

What's to lose? I seriously doubt EE will be the next Crawford or Pablo, but at his age, the probability is there that he falls far short of expectations. Most big signings do, so I find it hard to believe that you can't even see there is something to lose. We can't keep adding Pablos, Rusneys, Craigs or last year's HanRams. Again, I'm not saying I think EE will decline quickly, but if we spend large and long on him and he lets us down, there will be an impact and that impact could be significant. Our budget is not limitless. The loss of Papi loss was one of the very few FT openings we will have in years. All our starters ae tied up in contracts for 3 or more years. That leaves very little room for Moncada, Devers, Travis, Dubon and others. Of course, we can trade someone, if one of these kids gets better than a starter, but we aren't likely to get much salary relief. Nobody wants Pablo. Don't get me wrong; I'd love to add EE to our club, but if it's at the expense of not seriously rebuilding the pen or eventually finding another ace-type starter, then it's time to think long and hard about making a 4-5 year commitment. (Mark that in blood: 4+ years for EE.) For those who want EE, please tell me what is the max you'd give for 4 year and the max you'd give for 5 years.

Never? The guy had a .943 OPS in 633 PAs in 2009. He had a .909 OPS a couple years later. Yes, that seems like ages ago, but couldn't "form" at age 30 be over .800? He also has a .935 playoff OPS in 167 PAs over 13 series. Look, I'm not Pablo fan. I hated the signing day one. He had declined for 3 straight years before signing here. He's grossly overweight. His decent fielding was in decline as well. That's the negative. It's hard to find anything positive. I'll try. The SF Giants are thought to be a pretty smart club, They really wanted Pablo back and were upset he left. He's only going to be 30 next year. Players have had resurgences older than that. He knows he has sucked and people are angry, frustrated or worse about him. If the guy has just an ounce of pride under all that blubber, maybe he can (has been) work very hard to turn around his career. I'm not hopeful, but I'm not hopeful about Shaw either. I have serious doubts Moncada will be our starting 3Bman opening day. That leads me to think we need to keep an open mind about all our 3b contenders, until or unless we bring in an outsider.

Well, he was .764 vs RHPs with 12 HRs and 41 XBHs in just 372 ABs vs RHPs. That's borderline acceptable for a 3Bman. The problem is whether Shaw is the 2016 Shaw or the 2nd half 2016 Shaw. I'm leaning towards somewhere in between, but I suppose there may be more to find out. I'm not counting on Shaw to be our 3B savior. I never did. I was down on Shaw even when he was doing well, due to his struggles in AA and AAA. However, I'm not counting him out of a platoon role at 3B with spotty work at 1B when needed, maybe a late inning defensive replacement for HanRam at 1B occasionally. Most of my conjecture about 3B is going on the assumption that we will not acquire a 3Bman. We may try to pick up a player with one year of control (T Frazier?) to see if he can "bridge" us to Moncada or Devers. Otherwise, I look at it this way: Shaw has as good a chance or better as Pablo, Hernandez, Rutledge, Travis, Marrero or even a converted Swihart.

I do not think DD will make a big splash this winter. He will sign or trade for 3 quality RP'ers or 2 very good set-up men. He will sign or trade for a 1-2 year stop gap 3Bman, but he may wait out the Pablo-Moncada-Shaw competition and trade at the deadline. If does go big, it might be a trade with the CWS for Quinatna or Sale.

If he's better than next year's Pablo. If he can hit RHPs well enough to platoon.

I'm not defending JF. I wanted him gone last year. I just usually avoid bashing managers for an in-game decision gone wrong. The multitude of bad in-game decisions is another story.

I can see Beni passing JBJ on offense, but JBJ's defense keeps him in front of Beni for now. 2017: 1) Betts 2) JBJ 3) Pedey 5) HanRam 6) Bogey 7) Beni (may pass Bogey, if Bogey does not improve his endurance for next season) 8) Young 9) Leon 10) Swihart 11) Shaw/Moncada/Vazquez/ Holt/Pablo/Hernandez

I'd guess maybe someone might pay 10-20%. If he comes to ST'ing and looks good, and some contender loses their 3Bman to season-ending ijury, maybe then we could get 33-50%. If he looks good in ST'ing, plays well for a few months and Moncada is ready for the FT job, maybe a deadline trade might get a GM to pay 50-70%, depending on how "good" he looks. I think we keep him around until we know more about Shaw and Moncada.

True, but then if Papi gets hurt or throw out at home by an inch, we'd hear people roasting JF for not PR'ing for him with a pitcher- like other teams do.

We'll probably go with 11 pitchers, so we can take 3 from Holaday, Vazquez, Hanigan, Hernandez, Moncada or Hill. I'm real down on Hill right now and high on Hernandez. I don't think we need both, so I'd go with Holaday, Hernandez and Moncada (PR'er and maybe PH'er vs RHP) to fill out the bench with Young and Holt.

1B: Shaw vs RHPs/ HanRam vs LHPs DH: HanRam vs RHPs/Young vs LHPs 3B: Pablo or Moncada vs RHPs/ Hernandez vs LHPs I can totally understand why anyone might be unhappy with this set-up, especially when compared to one with Papi at DH FT. I can see why people want a 3Bman, DH or corner IF'er. If money were not an object, I'd say let's go out and get Turner at 3B or EE at DH, but I'm not sure it will happen. 1) Money is a concern, and going over the luxury tax this year will be a 50% tax. (We're already spending $19.5M on 3B for the next 3 years.) 2) Signing a really good player, usually means 3+ years. This would block Moncada and/or Devers and possibly even Swihart down the road. 3) Spending at 3B or DH may lessen what we can spend on the pen (see #1).

I mixed up DH and 1B. I went back and edited it.

To me, Young is a near must to play vs LHPs, and I don't want to sit beni, Betts or Bradley, so DH seems like a fit for Young. I'm not sure he's good enough vs RHPs to be our FT DH, and since we have a ton of guys that hit righties better, I think a DH platoon might end up being what we get- like it or not. Maybe Moncada-Young, HanRam-Young (see my last post) or Pablo-Young. Long shot: Swihart.

I still think the DH role might best suit HanRam, so I'd say 1B might be a "secondary need" instead of DH. He's a below average fielder, but if being a DH leads to a lack of focus or attention, then maybe 1B is best for him. If we make no acquisitions at corner IF. I think this might be best: 1B: Shaw vs RHPs/ HanRam vs LHPs DH: HanRam vs RHPs/Young vs LHPs 3B: Pablo or Moncada vs RHPs/ Hernandez vs LHPs

Up .049 in OPS on Trout. Up .036 in SLG on Murphy. 3rd in RBIs (5 behind Arenado) 5th in OBP in MLB. 11th in HRs.