moonslav59

Shaw's numbers over his two prior years before coming to the bigs were not impressive. He had a nice stretch last year and started out well this year. His WAR is largely fulled by his defense, which is decent (especially at 1B), but perhaps is "showing" better than he really is. I think it's totally reasonable to not expect a 1.8 WAR (fangraphs) again next year. His second half WAR is 0.2 with a -7.1 offensive factor. The 0.2 WAR places him 10th on the team for everyday players. His first half 1.6 WAR placed him 6th on the Sox. Overall, his 1.8 WAR places 8th, but Young might have passed him had he not gotten hurt or has 300+ PAs. Beni and Swihart might be over 1.8 next year. The problem is none of these guys play 3B. I am certainly leaving the door open for Shaw to be out FT 3Bman next year. I think, if no deals are made, he's got the inside shot at winning the job. I think we'd be better defensively with Shaw at 1b and HanRam at DH, but that depends on who is the 3Bman next year, if Shaw is at 1B. I'm not counting on 1 PA from PAblo, but I'm not writing him off either. Too bad he and Shaw both hit righties much better than lefties. Same with Moncada. I'm not sure Moncada is so bad as he looked in his super tiny sample size this year. The Sox must have thought he was very close to ready to bring him up when they did. A short winter season, some off season workout and spring training may help him develop a little more, but I am not counting on him to be our starting 3Bman on opening day. It could happen, but if it does, it might be because Pablo and Shaw look shaky not because Moncada looks great. Between the 3 of these guys and maybe Hernandez, Rutledge and Holt, we'll probably be okay at 3B, but I wouldn't be surprised if we try to find a short term stop gap 3Bman this winter. 2016 25th in 3B WAR at 1.4 27th in 3B OPS at .702 (.007 from the worst/.060 from slightly above average)

I can see the redundancy in carrying Holt, Hernadez & Hill, especially when you consider we should not need to replace any of our IF'ers by PH'ing (except maybe Shaw vs a LHP) or for defense (except maybe HanRam at 1B, but with who? Shaw from 3B?) I thought of maybe having Moncada as PR'er, but he's still too raw to trust on the basepaths. I think 7 RP'ers is plenty, since one will be Pomeranz, who can come in early and go 6-7 innings, if needed. We'll have 3 games off before our first playoff game, so everyone should be more than rested to start out. Then we.. play 2 off 1 pay 2 (if needed) off 1 play 1 (if needed) off 1 (or more, if series ends early) play 2 off 1 play 3 off 1 play 2 (if needed) off 2 (or more) play 2 off 1 play 3 off 1 play 2 (if needed) I can't see but two time when everyone won't be available out of the pen- the two times we play 3 games in row.

Last 10 Day records of AL contenders: 8-2 BOS 6-4 CLE, DET, HOU, SEA 5-5 TOR, TEX 4-6 BAL

Here is the AL playoff schedule: Wild Card Round AL Wild Card Game: Oct. 4 (TBS) ALDS Game 1: Oct. 6 (TBS) Game 2: Oct. 7 (TBS) Game 3: Oct. 9 (TBS) Game 4*: Oct. 10 (TBS) Game 5*: Oct. 12 (TBS) ALCS Game 1: Oct. 14 (TBS) Game 2: Oct. 15 (TBS) Game 3: Oct. 17 (TBS) Game 4: Oct. 18 (TBS) Game 5*: Oct. 19 (TBS) Game 6*: Oct. 21 (TBS) Game 7*: Oct. 22 (TBS) World Series Game 1: Oct. 25 (FOX) Game 2: Oct. 26 (FOX) Game 3: Oct. 28 (FOX) Game 4: Oct. 29 (FOX) Game 5*: Oct. 30 (FOX) Game 6*: Nov. 1 (FOX) Game 7*: Nov. 2 (FOX) *Game played if necessary Our last game is October 2nd, and we probably will not have to use our top starters to secure our spot in the playoffs. That means our schedule may look like this: Season ends OCT 2 ALDS: 6, 7, 9, 10 & 12 2 games, day off, 2 games, day off, 1 game ALCS: 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 21, 22 One day off before series, then 2 games, day off, 3 games, day off, 2 games WS: 25, 26, 28, 29, 30, Oct 1, 2 Two days off before series, then 2 games, day off, 3 games, day off, 2 games The schedule shows that we may need only 3 starting pitchers at times and 4 at other times. At no point will we need 5 starters. With so many days off, we may not need a deep pen. Most playoff teams go with 11-12 pitchers. Could this be our pitching staff and first series roster? SP1 Price SP2 Porcello SP3 Buchholz? SP4 ERod Closer Kimbrel RP2 Uehara RP3 Ziegler RP4 Ross RP5 Tazawa RP6 Pomeranz RP7 Abad (Scott? Barnes? Kelly? Wright?) Assuming 11 pitchers, the rest of the roster could be... C (2)- Leon, Hanigan? (Vaz or Holaday?) 1B (1) HanRam 2B (2) Pedroia, Holt 3B (2) Shaw, Hill SS (2) Bogaerts, Hernandez LF (2) Benintendi, Young CF (1) Bradley RF (1) Betts DH (1) Ortiz

Here is the AL playoff schedule: Wild Card Round AL Wild Card Game: Oct. 4 (TBS) ALDS Game 1: Oct. 6 (TBS) Game 2: Oct. 7 (TBS) Game 3: Oct. 9 (TBS) Game 4*: Oct. 10 (TBS) Game 5*: Oct. 12 (TBS) ALCS Game 1: Oct. 14 (TBS) Game 2: Oct. 15 (TBS) Game 3: Oct. 17 (TBS) Game 4: Oct. 18 (TBS) Game 5*: Oct. 19 (TBS) Game 6*: Oct. 21 (TBS) Game 7*: Oct. 22 (TBS) World Series Game 1: Oct. 25 (FOX) Game 2: Oct. 26 (FOX) Game 3: Oct. 28 (FOX) Game 4: Oct. 29 (FOX) Game 5*: Oct. 30 (FOX) Game 6*: Nov. 1 (FOX) Game 7*: Nov. 2 (FOX) *Game played if necessary Our last game is October 2nd, and we probably will not have to use our top starters to secure our spot in the playoffs. That means our schedule may look like this: Season ends OCT 2 ALDS: 6, 7, 9, 10 & 12 2 games, day off, 2 games, day off, 1 game ALCS: 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 21, 22 One day off before series, then 2 games, day off, 3 games, day off, 2 games WS: 25, 26, 28, 29, 30, Oct 1, 2 Two days off before series, then 2 games, day off, 3 games, day off, 2 games The schedule shows that we may need only 3 starting pitchers at times and 4 at other times. At no point will we need 5 starters. With so many days off, we may not need a deep pen. Most playoff teams go with 11-12 pitchers. Could this be our pitching staff and first series roster? SP1 Price SP2 Porcello SP3 Buchholz? SP4 ERod Closer Kimbrel RP2 Uehara RP3 Ziegler RP4 Ross RP5 Tazawa RP6 Pomeranz RP7 Abad (Scott? Barnes? Kelly? Wright?) Assuming 11 pitchers, the rest of the roster could be... C (2)- Leon, Hanigan? (Vaz or Holaday?) 1B (1) HanRam 2B (2) Pedroia, Holt 3B (2) Shaw, Hill SS (2) Bogaerts, Hernandez LF (2) Benintendi, Young CF (1) Bradley RF (1) Betts DH (1) Ortiz

Much of our near term roster seems to be pretty much locked up contractually. We lose Ortiz, A Hill, Uehara, Tazawa and Ziegler. We'll probably let Hanigan go, but may keep Buch and his final option looks like it will be given. These (25 man) roster slots will likely be taken by... Ortiz> Beni for a full season AHill > Hernandez (Pablo?/Swi?) and then maybe Moncada Uehara> FA acquisition Ziegler> FA acquisition Tazawa> C Smith Hanigan> Full season of Leon and more from Vaz/Swi After 2017... Young> Swihart Buch> Kelly/Owens/Johnson/Kopech Abad> Hembree/others The '17-'18 winter could be the time we decide to look at extensions. After 2018... Price has opt out>? HanRam has a vesting option based on 2 year PA totals Kimbrel> Pomeranz> Kelly> Ross> After 2019... Bogey> Porcello> Leon> Holt> Rutledge> Workman> Pablo option After 2020... Betts> JBJ> Smith> Wright> Vaz> Pablo> After 2021... Pedroia> After 2022... Price>

Swihart could be another option in left field, moving Beni over to center field. Moncada could also play outfield, depending on Devers' progress but it would also be nice to simply plug in Moncada at 3B for next ten years. Great point. This shows how much of our future is still in flux. We have several options at every position that may end up with a gaping hole, if ssomeone bolts or has a major in jury.

I wouldn't compare our big 3 B's to Ellsbury. Jacoby had the 5th to 7th best OPS on the team before he left, and he only really had one big year. I do think we may end up losing one of the three, as you point out, but I'm hoping some new fresh young players will be ready to take his place at a much lower cost (Beni? Moncada? Basabe? Travis? Dalbec? Ockimey?)

I see 9 arb players (see below in bold) I could be wrong, but show me where I am... Under contract for 2017 (7 players): $30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $13.75M Pedroia, $10.5M Kimbrell, $6.5M Young. TOTAL: $123.35M (Note: Castillo's$10.25M Castillo and Craig's $6.2M contracts do not count on the luxury tax budget, if they remains off the 40 man roster.) Options ( 2 players): $13.5M Buchholz and $3.75M Hannigan TOTAL: $1.3M (buyouts) 0 to $17.25M (giving both) Let's assume we say no and then count them as off-season options: Updated TOTAL: $124.65M Arbs (9 players): Bogaerts:$650K > ~$5.5M (1st of 3) Bradley: $546K > ~$3.2M (1 of 4) Pomeranz $1.35M> ~$3.5M (2 of 3) J Kelly: $2.6M>$2.7M (2 of 3 arbs) Ross: $1.25M> $1.7M (2 of 3) Holt: $606K > $1.1M (1 of 3) Leon: $minor > $1.1K (1 of 3) Rutledge: $minor> $850K (1 of 3) Workman: $540K > $600K (1 of 3) TOTAL ARBS: ~$20.35M TOTAL of 16 players: ~$145M (without Buch and Hanigan) The 24 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Brentz, Betts, Hembree, Barnes, Coyle, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Light, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Holaday, Moncada TOTAL: ~$13M Grand Total: $158M (No Buch/Hanigan) Now, add the $12M for player benefits and our Luxury Tax Total is... TOTAL $170M That leaves us with about $19M to spend without going over the luxury limit as it is right now ($189M), however, the limit is expected to rise to over $200M and perhaps closer to $210M. That would mean we'll have between $30M and $40M, but if we keep Buch and/or Hanigan it will be less. That may appear like a lot of money, but finding a replacement for Papi (DH, 3B, LF or 1B) will not come cheap. We will probably also need 2-3 quality RP'ers and maybe a SP'er. If we don't try to spend big to replace Papi, we will probably sign an aging vet to 1-2 year deal who plays corner IF and/or LF (Beltran?).

I think I had us with about $30M to spend and come even to the projected limit.

Between Pablo, Hill and others who have tried their hand at 3B this year, we're paying over $25M for ... .250 15 67 OBP .311 SLG .394 OPS .705

I'm not sure who paid the $1M assignment bonus he had in his contract for being traded, but we are only on the hook for the pro-rated portion of his average yearly salary of $11.67M a year. Since we got him just after the half way point of the year, we'll probably be counted as about $5.8M not counting the $1M bonus, which might count as $0.17 (half a million divided by 3 years). Didn't work out too well.

Nice post. I also wonder if the youth of this team has, in some ways, "coaxed" Papi into having one of hie best seasons. The "Fountain of Youth" has washed over Papi's aching feet.

The adjustments I added were minuscule, so I'm not sure we will see wild fluctuations on any of the numbers, except for those like Leon and Young who have fewer PAs.

I don't know about that!

I know! 3 HRs in just 32 ABs against us! An to think, that's about his average against everybody else too! One HR every 10 ABs is insane!

I totally agree, but I will say that maybe more experience will help Barnes and Hembree improve "under pressure".

Let's remember the sample size is still very small. Beni is bound to have some moments where he struggles, but it sure is nice to see him off to a great start. Right now, he's tied for 4th on the team with Leon with a 127 OPS+. (50+ PAs) 165 Ortiz 132 Betts 130 Young 127 Beni + Leon 125 HanRam 121 Bradley 116 Pedey 108 Bogey 100 Hernandez 93 Shaw 92 Rutledge 90 Swihart 87 Holt 80 Brentz 52 Vazquez 47 A Hill 22 Hanigan 9 guys at 100 or over is pretty impressive. 8 over 108 is probably even more impressive.

Let's lower the PAs to 210 to create a sample size of 330 players (an average of 11 per team). Here's how the Sox rank: 2 Ortiz 166 23 Young 136 26 Leon 135 27 Betts 134 40 Ram 130 46 JBJ 124 51 Pedey 123 (Even without Papi in the league, we have 5 in the top 45 and 6 in the top 50.) Even if you take away Leon and count Young as only good vs LHPs (half a player), we will still have 4.5 guys from the top 50 in MLB (out of 330). My guess is Beni will be a top 50 or 60 player out of 330 on offense next year, so one could easily argue we might have 5-6 top 50 offensive players next year.

I think Bogey represents the best chance to see a big improvement next year. He showed a long stretch of doing well this year. I hope it's not an endurance issue, but maybe if it is, he can address that in the off season by changing his workout routine. I, too, see Beni as a guy that may totally blast onto the scene with a ROY type season. If he does, that alone could make up for a lot of Papi's loss. I get the concern about worrying about all these "what ifs", like what if 2-3 of our top players have a down year next year. Well, if that happens, we probably wouldn't have much of a chance even if we had Papi back giving us a replicate of 2016. I think our second half pitching staff is what we will see all next year, and we pretty much did all this without Wright and Carson Smith. Plus, Uehara and Taz were out or ineffective for much of it, so their loss does not have a major impact on what the staff has done in the second half. I'm pretty certain we replace uehara, Taz and Ziegler with 2-3 very capable pen arms beyond Smith, Kelly, Scott and others who might step up from within the system. We could see major strides made by Barnes or Hembree next year. We could see Wright or Buch in the pen.

Oversight: Pedey .322 13 70

Before the season started I harped on the fact that every other AL teams had more and or larger serious issues than we had, and that they had less in-system depth to address their weaknesses than we did. Here's the W-L records of the top AL contenders: Last 10 8-2 Sox (9-2 in last 11 and 12-3 in their last 15) 6-4 CLE (9-5 in last 14) 6-4 TEX (8-9 in last 17) 6-4 HOU (7-7 in last 14) 5-5 TOR (6-10 in last 16 and 7-12 in last 19) 4-6 BAL (8-10 in last 18) 4-6 DET (5-8 in the last 13) Only CLE has been winning recently. Since AUG 1st BOS 31-18 TEX 28-19 CLE 28-21 HOu 26-22 DET 23-22 TOR 24-23 BAL 23-25 Only BOS, CLE & TEX have dobe very well since AUG 1.

The question comes up as to what to do with 3rd base as Hill is not answer and Shaw is back into his slump. I think the time has come to finally give Hernandez a few games in a row at 3B.

Guys who used to hit the market at 27 and 28, are hitting it now at 29 and 30. The players are still getting ridiculous money for the same amount of years, but since 2 prime years are already gone, the production and cost/benefit is no longer worth it. Very well put. I've been warning against these big and long signings for years, especially one that half the years are post prime. I loved the Porcello extension precisely because every year was within prime. Signing EE scares the bejesus out of me. I'm not an expert on the Yankee roster. I differ to your expertise, but I do see the Yanks as being very close to being competitive as early as next year. I'd suggest signing someone like Hellickson and B Anderson and hope they can be solid #3 type starters who give a lot of innings, which may allow the pen to be more effective. Don't go mega large and mega long. Stick to the plan, but don't wait to try to make some stop gap efforts to help you win now...not trading prospects for a quick fix, but just signing some mid-level guys to 1-3 years deals only- kinda like the Sox in 2013..

i can't disagree. We've always had at least one "big bat" in the middle of the line-up during championship years. It takes a great leap of faith to imagine a way for a team playing in a hitter's park to win without a stud up 3rd and/or 4th. Looking at the league leaders in wRC+ and seeing Papi second only to Trout speaks volumes of his ability and performance level. The Cubs have 2 guys in the top 10 (Bryant 6th and Rizzo 10th. The Tigers have #9 (JD Martinez) and #11 (Miggy). The Jays have Donaldson at #4 and EE at #17. The mariners have Crus (14) and Seager (19). The only other team with two in the top 21 is the Sox with Papi at #2 and Betts at #21. Taking Papi away gives us one in the top 21 and 2 in the top 28 (HanRam). With Cano at #24, only the Mariners have 3 guys in the top 28. One bright spot is the fact that we are the only team with 5 players in the top 37 with JBJ 34th and Pedey #37. The Cubs and Ms have 3. The Tigers, Rockies and jays have 2, and the Jays may be losing EE. Perhaps winning with balance is an option. We also have Bogey at #66. Let's lower the PAs to 210 to create a sample size of 330 players (an average of 11 per team). Here's how the Sox rank: 2 Ortiz 166 23 Young 136 26 Leon 135 27 Betts 134 40 Ram 130 46 JBJ 124 51 Pedey 123 (Even without Papi in the league, we have 5 in the top 45 and 6 in the top 50.) 103 Bogey 113 204 Shaw 93 229 Holt 89 If our youth improves as most do at their ages, maybe we can find 2 big bats in the top 10 or 20. Maybe we can win by placing 3 or 4 in the top 25 to 35. I feel good about our future. I feel good about our balanced offense. It's going to hurt big time losing Papi, but there's still a reason to be optimistic about the near future of this team. I haven't even mentioned Beni, Moncada, Swihart and other youngsters on the rise that could make a near immediate impact.