moonslav59

I'd go with Beni in LF and Young at DH, but if Beni could use more down time, then Young in LF is fine. I'd avoid using Shaw vs lefties, but I'd go with Hernandez over Hill..

I'm not one to worry about K's but Trumbo is a lot like Napoli in that way. He'll be very expensive, but being able to play 1B and LF would help when we face NL teams away. I think we need to look for a 1-2 year stop-gap 3Bman or corner IF'er. I think Beni and Young have LF covered better than Shaw/Moncada/Pablo have 3B covered.

"you say Hello But I say good bye...."

In some ways this year reminds me of 2013. So many players are having their best years all at once. That could change next year, and not just with Porcello, but we have so many young players still in front of prime, so I think the chances are good most continue doing well or even better. I have not softened on trading HanRam, but I want to wait to discuss that this winter. The problem I see at 3B is difficult to deal with. We can't really spend large and long on a 3Bman, since we may end up blocking Moncada, but we can't count on Moncada as our FT 3Bman next year either. It's hard to find a great player for just one year other than through a trade. Shaw and to a much lesser extent Pablo are also both possible solutions to the 3B problem, even if as just platoons (too bad they both can't hit lefties). Although acquiring pen arm is always in some ways a crap shoot, it is the easiest and cheapest position to fill, even if mid season

I never thought we were as bad as our record indicated in 3 of the last 4 years, but three times is no fluke. They certainly weren't as good as I thought they were going to be either. With the amount of parity in MLB, particularly in the AL, it doesn't take much to turn things around in a dramatic way. Our championship in 2013 is a prime example of that. I'm not surprised we are 4 games behind the best record in the AL, but I wouldn't have been surprised if we had been 14 behind either.

He's not even close to being the "best", so I will argue there. He's already been moved this year (from 3 to 2). All last winter, I argued that Bogey should bat second due to his comparative lack of power to bat third, and it's funny how someone who called himself the best poster argued that you don't move great players out of the slot they feel comfortable in and have done well in for years-- Pedey. You crack me up!

BAL & TOR both lose. Nice! AL East BOS TOR -3 BAL -3 NYY -7 WC TOR - BAL - DET -3 HOU -3 SEA -3 We're 6 up on the last WC slot for those who tend to be pessimists. We're 2 away from the 2nd best AL record and 4 away from the best in the AL.

It's hard to imagine losing Papi, not adding anyone on offense and still being a top 3 or 4 offense, but I think we can. We have 9 guys with an OPS over .800 counting Beni. Losing Papi and not counting Beni still leaves us with 7! Asking Moncada and Beni to make up for Papi's loss is foolish, but they should help minimize the loss. 1) Pedey 2) Bogey 3) Betts 4) HanRam 5) JBJ 6) Shaw v R/ Young v L 7) Beni 8) Moncada v R/ Shaw or ??? v L 9) Leon That's a nice line-up right there. Holt, Hernandez, Vazquez, Swihart in reserve is pretty nice too. If we bring Buch back, our rotation looks pretty strong and maybe deep enough: Price, Porcello Wright, Pomeranz, ERod Buch Kelly, Elias, Johnson, Owens (maybe Kopech late in the season) Only the pen needs serious help, but with Smith returning, we only need 2 solid arms of 3 decent ones: Kimbrel _____ Smith _____ Ross Barnes (Kelly) Abad, Hembree, (Elias), Scott, (Johnson, Owens)

It's all relative. Naps cost will be less than many many other options. I'm not saying I want him here next year, but he's been a little more consistent than HanRam, so who knows.

I'm glad they didn't move Bogey today. He had 3 runs and 3 RBI from the 2 slot.

What? We can't speculate on who has the strongest chance at winning the AL until the playoffs are set?

I was a huge Napoli supporter, even through the slumps and K fests. I'm glad he bounced back. If we decide to move HanRam to DH or trade him, I suppose Naps could be an option here.

Well, the assumption is, and that's all it is, is that we can spend the $22M saved in a better way. I really don't want to rain on HanRam's parade. He's doing great, and I don't want to badmouth him in the middle of a championship drive. I'm glad here's here now. It did not surprise me that he bounced back.

REALly, Texas will have to play the Jays or O's while we play the depleted Guardians. It won't be a cake walk, but it's probably easier than the WC winner.

Just finished watching the game. Nice win. Looks like Kimbrel is his old self again. That could be huge! Good to see Bogey showing signs of life after a long slump. JBJ's got 4 BBs in his last 12 PAs. I'm looking at the Sox as the AL favorite now that Carrasco has a broken hand... maybe they were before that happened.

Who would you say is now the favorite to win the AL?

It's not always easy recognizing which pitches will end up in the K zone. Sometimes a hitter is guessing fastball, and they get a curve, so they freeze. Other times maybe you just make a mistake.

I explained why. It's okay to disagree, and there's a significant chance he will do well for some or most of his remaining 2-3 years here, but his history is the epitome of a roller coaster career and he's now on the wrong side of prime. I'm glad he's doing well this year, and we may not have a chance without him continuing so. I don't really want to talk bad about him in the middle of a championship run, so let's talk more this winter and certainly next year after we see which HanRam shows up. If he's herre and doing great, I'll be glad to admit I was wrong, But I think $22M for DH is too much.

We tried to get Beltran at the deadline, so I think he may be the most likely option. I feel less secure about 3B/1B/DH than LF though, so I don't think Beltran would be my first choice. I do like the idea of seeking out a 2 year contract over the 5+ EE will get. If we sign a 1Bman, either he or HanRam has to sit at an NL park. That leaves 3B. Although we'll probably have one of these guys do well enough to be a plus next year, there's still doubt: Shaw, Moncada, Pablo, Hernandez & Rutledge. Here's the FA 3Bmen this winter: Daniel Descalso Martin Prado Justin Turner Luis Valbuena Danny Valencia could probably be gotten for very cheap. He's got one arb left. Maybe Turner could be an option, but I'm not sure adding another 3Bman who is not a sure bet to win the position to the mix is going to be a viable option with our off season budget. .

It used to be that when you watched (on TV) a hitter make contact, you could tell, most of the time, if a hitter got "all of it" or "got under it". Now, you never can tell.

When the sample size for a recent trend is large enough or approaching validity, I give it more weight. Let's assume 8.5 everyday batters per team x 30 teams. That's 260 players for a legitimate sample size to use. Here's how Young ranks over various sample size going back in time... 2015-2016 (150+ PAs / 258 batters) 5th 1.015 (Only 2 players had more PAs and a better OPS: Goldschmidt & N Cruz). While the sample size may seem small, Young's 244 PAs paces him just about in the middle of the "full timer" sample size (138/258). 2014-2016 (230+ PAs/ 259 batters) 25th at .895 (only 17 players had more PAs and a higher OPS.) 2013-2016 (300+ PAs/ 263 batters) 58th at .833 (just behind Pedey,Betts and Bogey) 2012-2016 (350+ PAs/ 279 batters) 64th at .828 (646 PA sample size ) 2010-2016 (500+ PAs/ 244 batters) 51st at .545 Only 94 batters have over 900 PAs in this sample size and Young places 23rd. For reference, Pedey is 17th at .866 and Justin Upton is 26th at .831. Let's take away the last 2 great years and go 2010-2014: 400+ PAs/ 250 batters 94th at .787 Even these numbers are very respectable and deserving of a place in the line-up when we face a lefty. He used to be a top 40% hitter vs lefties, and over the last 2 years, he's become a top 2% hitter vs lefties. He's top 20% from 2010-2016. Any way I look at it, he's gonna start vs every lefty, if I had the choice.

Compare the balance... (240+ PAs) 2004..............2007...............2013...............2016 1.009 MRam 1.066 Ortiz.......959 Ortiz......1.036 Ortiz .983 Ortiz.......881 HRam ......885 Carp ........938 Leon .872 V Tek......879 Lowell.....842 Napoli........893 Betts .857 Damon....843 Youkilis....831 DNava......858 HRam .857 K Millar....823 Pedey......804 Salty.........852 JBJ .817 Bellhorn..796 JDRew.....801 Victorino.....851 Pedroia .811 Mueller...787 V Tek.......787 Pedroia.......795 Bogaerts .785 OCabr......643 J Lugo ...781 Ellsbury......764 Shaw .780 Youkilis..........................777 S Drew.......728 Holt .700 Kapler............................771 Gomes others 120-240 PAs .893 Mirab......902 Ellsbury.....785 Iggy.........894 Young .887 Nixon.....714 Hinske.......681 D Ross.....583 Vazquez .867 Nomar....684 ACora........617 Bradley....545 AHill .731 MCarty...675 WM Pena..................... .574 Reese....637 Mirabelli........................

Quick update on Sox OPS after tonight's game: (110+ PAs, unless noted) 1.036 Ortiz .938 Leon .894 Young .893 Betts .858 Ramirez .857 Benintendi (77 PAs) .852 Bradley .851 Pedroia .795 Bogaerts .780 Hernandez (50 PAs) .764 Shaw .733 Rutledge (56 PAs) .728 Holt .720 Swihart (74 PAs) .690 Brentz (50 PAs) .583 Vazquez .545 A Hill .463 HAnigan

We scored early and kept 'em trickling in. Nice game. Too bad the O's came back on the rays.

It's not complicated.