moonslav59

bingo!

First, our Pythagorean record says that we should have 92 wins, 5 more than what we have. IMO, that's the number you start with, not the 87 wins. It's no accident we are better now than at the start of the year, despite the loss of Wright (our best 1st half SP'er). We added Pomeranz. Buch came back to life. ERod found his groove, and the pen got healthy and better. Of course, there's no way to project all that will continue from day one next season, but there's reason to be optimistic. There may be major injuries or lots of minor ones. There may be too many unexpected declines by players still in prime or pre-prime. One could argue a lot went right this year, and expecting it to happen again next year is foolish. I see it this way, our best players are still in prime, just entering prime or pre-prime. One should actually expect improvement from the rest of the players as a whole, next year. We have Carson Smith returning. We'll have a full season from Beni. We should get better catcher production than the first half of 2016, but probably not near what we got the second half. We could maybe do more than just improve on this... PAs Player OPS 177 Vaz .580 124 Hill .554 110 Hanigan .463 64 Brentz .690 31 Holaday .459 12 Marrero .350 23 others going 3 for 36, We could improve on this as well... 126 IP Buch 5.20 (maybe by Buch himself) 90 IP ERod 4.98 (probably by ERod himself) 64 iP Barnes 4.10 62 IP Pomeranz 4.91 49 IP Taz 4.25 34 IP Kelly 5.88 21 IP O'Sullivan 6.75 17 IP Owens 7.79 13 IP Abad 6.39 8 IP Elias 12.91 Yes, there will be new names next year with numbers like these. There will probably be some of the same names with the same or worse numbers, but looking at the second half of this year gives me encouragement that the whole of next year's pitching will be better, perhaps even with just Carson Smith "added" and full seasons from Pom, Erod, Kelly and the "new" Buch. Maybe our defense can improve by having Shaw at 1B rather than HanRam. Beni should do better than the mix we had this year in LF (Holt 1/3 of the innings, Young another third and Brentz+ Swihart about a fifth. Perhaps Bogey can actually improve next year instead of being about the same or a little worse than last year. There's lots of reasons to be optimistic about or chances next year. This second half team is not the same as the first half team. . 13 IP N Ramirez 6.39 .

It took our offense to be better by 100 runs to secure 4 game lead in AL East as of this morning. Why would anyone think we can win next year scoring less? Everyone on the planet says we can't replace Ortiz. So we do nothing? Do you honestly believe that's what DD will do? I seriously doubt it. Again, nobody is saying we shouldn't or won't do anything. Nobody. Some of us are saying we might not need to go big at acquiring a DH to make up for Papi's loss. There are other weak links that can be fixed or upgraded. We could also add a bat that is not a huge addition along with upgrading the pen, rotation and/or defense. Offense in baseball is very different. There's a 'team' component to it. Think of difference between say Hanigan versus what Sandy did. That impacts every hitter in Boston lineup. Baseball is unique in that it's a team sport but you can have best player at each position and there's no chemistry issue strictly on baseball matters. All nine batters get to hit. There's no sharing of one ball as in basketball where team chemistry/composition is very critical. To suggest you can go from Ortiz who has clearly had the BEST pre-retirement year in baseball history to say we'll just hope bunch of others can fill in as DH on their day off is astounding. Again, who is saying do nothing? The ones that are saying do nothing to the offense are saying do something to the pitching and/or defense. While adding EE instead of Beltran or Turner or some other "lesser player" would certainly add to our offensive projected output, the money spent may prevent us from upgrading the pen, rotation and defense as much as we could by just signing the lesser player. If we added Fernandez, Quintana or Sale without giving up a ML offensive piece, one could argue that would make a huge dent in the "replacing of Papi". Then there is this... (again)... Here's another way to look at it: instead of trying to replace Papi's 600 PAs or 1.000+ OPS offense, we could replace these PAs with more PAs from Beni (.865), Swihart (.720), Young (.894), Moncada, Leon (.891) and Holt (.717): PAs Player OPS 177 Vaz .580 124 Hill .554 110 Hanigan .463 64 Brentz .690 31 Holaday .459 12 Marrero .350 23 others going 3 for 36. That's about 550 PAs of putrid production We could gain over 200 points here alone.. I'm not saying this will make up for losing Papi, but it's a big step in the right direction. Add a couple strong set-up men in the pen, maybe upgrade a SP'er, pick up a Beltran or Turner, and we may come close to making up for Papi's loss without gambling on EE.

Well, if I'm a CWS fan, I'd be saying, "you don't trade an ace with 4 years of team control at a very reasonable cost".

Do we want hard throwers or guys who are effective? Sometimes one doesn't lead to the other. Sometimes it's nice to throw a mix at teams.

Me too. It would probably take JBJ, ERod and Swihart. I might give 2 of the three then sign Beltran to 2 years and hope Moncada can play LF by the time his contract expires.

We have a great OF but not much depth. Trading an OF'er means needing to replace an OF'er with another move (Beltran? until Basabe may be ready? Move Moncada to LF?)

I guess I don't think of planning to get way more PAs from Beni and maybe some more from Moncada, Young, Leon and Swihart is "standing pat", but I see how not adding to the current roster can be viewed that way.

I don't like the idea either, but what if Swihart is hitting .850+ at AAA, and our DH is not doing well. If Swihart can't play 1B, then HanRam will and Swihart (or Moncada) could be the DH for a while. I know this hurts their growth as a fielder and all around player, but if either is the best hitter we have, and we don't have a position for them to play, then DH may be a stop gap choice.

We'll have Buch to come in by the 5th or 6th inning.

Well, I did mention he might get $22M x 5 and someone said they thought he'd get more.

JBJ is one of my favorite players. I'd trade him straight up for Quintana.

ERod is still a little up and down, but he's looking to have kmore ups recently. I like him as our number 3 in the playoffs, but I have no issue with Pom.

He only made $30M in his last 3 years combined.

Did someone say he was going to make $30M a year?

That's about the most and longest I'd even consider, but I think he gets much more. Not that it matters, but wouldn't Papi get a little peeved to see EE get $20M x 4, when all he could get was $16M x 2?

Nobody is arguing standing pat. There are more ways to improve a team by just trying to replace an outgoing stud's offense. I do think DD will go after Beltran or Turner- not a big named player seeking 4+ years. Here's another way to look at it: instead of trying to replace Papi's 600 PAs or 1.000+ OPS offense, we could replace these PAs with more from Beni (.865), Swihart (.720), Young (.894), Moncada, Leon (.891) and Holt (.717): PAs Player OPS 177 Vaz .580 124 Hill .554 110 Hanigan .463 64 Brentz .690 31 Holaday .459 12 Marrero .350 23 others going 3 for 36. That's about 550 PAs of putricity. I'm not saying this will make up for losing Papi, but it's a big step in the right direction. Add a couple strong set-up men in the pen, maybe upgrade a SP'er, pick up a Beltran or Turner, and we may come close to making 8up for Papi's loss without gambling on EE.

I think minimum, he gets $80M/4. I think some GM might offer $95M/5....like what the Sox gave Pablo!!!!!!! I bet he gets more than either of those offers, but if use papi's $16M as a benchmark, then maybe I'm way off..

Papi's best years: OPS+ 2012 173 2007 171 2016 165 2006 161 2013 159 2005 158 2011 154 2004 145 2003 144 2015 141 2014 140 10 of his 18 "real seasons" were over 140. 3 of those 11 have come after age 38! 6 of the 11 have come after age 35. SLG% 2006 .635 2016 .634 2007 .621 The only year he has led the league in OPS is 2016. 1.037 is his 3rd best career OPS. His .403 OBP is his 4th time over .400. wRC+ in 2016: Trout 171 Ortiz 166 Murphy 156 Donaldson 153 Votto 153 Papi "must be Buttah- cause he's on a roll!"

I'm working on what our current roster minus Papi might look like next year. I'm fine with this.... Swihart starts the season in AAA to get over his injury and get in stride. Moncada goes Winter League and spends ST'ing seriously learning to play 3B. He, too, starts the season in AAA at 3B. These are our 13 positional players on opening day: C- Leon & Vaz 1B HanRam 2B Pedey 3B Shaw SS Bogey LF Beni CF JBJ RF Betts DH Young v LHPs/ Pablo v RHPs Utility: Holt & Hernandez No Pablo? then who? It makes sense to me to have a bat like Swihart or Moncada on the 25 man roster. I guess we could pick up a cheap th OF'er for the last slot. minor league depth: C- Swihart (Butler/Romanski) --Holaday is out of options 1B- Swihart? S Travis, Witte 2B- Moncada, Rutledge, Marrero 3B- Moncada, Rutledge SS- Dubon, Marrero, Rutledge LF- Swihart, (Castillo), Brentz, Ramos, Tavarez CF- none - we have 3 OF'ers who can all play CF (Castillo) RF- none - (see CF)

I share your feeling, but I'm acting on an assumption that might be totally wrong- we will not make a major acquisition to replace Papi. I'm working on what our current roster minus Papi might look like next year. We may need to put tradition behind us for a short time, so we can put the best hitting team on the field next year. I see the great advantage of putting top athletes in AAA to improve their defense, if there is no starting role on the 25 man roster. That's a long-standing tradition that has a lot of merit. However, our offense may need help, and right now, I see Moncada and Swihart (along with beni in LF) as the leading candidates to greatly increase their MLB PAs from 2016 to 2017. They are ahead of Pablo, Hernandez, Holt, Vazquez and maybe even Young (vs RHPs anyway) on offense. The issue is how to get their bats into the line-up without severely limiting our defense. Moncada looks to need much more time at 3B to be decent on defense. Playing DH and practicing 3B on his off time may not be the ideal chocie, but if his bat can help us win, we may have to put him at DH for a while anyway (vs RHPs). One major reason I suggested Swihart learn 1B or 3B was so he wouldn't have to DH. I have no idea how Sox management views his possibilities as a corner IF'er, and I defer to their judgment on that one. I don't see Swihart beating out Leon next year, and I'm not sure even healthy, he's above Vaz on the depth chart. Putting him in AAA might be a good idea, but we'd need Leon or Vaz to get hurt or suck for him to ever get out of AAA, unless he just totally started raking AAA pitching. This is one reason, I have discussed trading Swihart. Clearly, other teams have greater needs at catching than us. I'd love to keep Swihart. If he could play 1B and HanRam DH, or 3B and Shaw 1B and HR DH, then he could get is PAs at the ML level easily. It would also be nice to have a 3rd catcher for late inning moves. That's why I prefer trading Holt over Swihart, even with the return for Swihart being greater. Plus, Swihart does give us catcher depth, in case of injury or implosion. I don't like the idea of DH'ing Swihart or Moncada. I'd prefer HanRan DH vs RHPs and Young vs LHPs, with Swihart and Moncada pushing to win a corner IF job away from Shaw or HanRam (who could DH full time). There may even be competition from Pablo, but I'm not counting on that.

You could seriously rebuild the pen by signing Chapman or Jansen and then adding someone like Melancon. Adding a decent pitcher like Hellickson couldn't hurt. You could take a flyer on Brett Anderson, but you're right, there really isn't much on the FA market pitching-wise. Maybe you could trade McCann and/or Garnder for a decent #3 slot innings eater- perhaps with a big contract.

Projected season ending stats (1.067 x current numbers): Papi .318 38 130 Betts .317 33 116 HanR .292 30 114 Bogey .296 21 94 JBJ .276 28 93 Shaw .249 17 75 Young .285 10 23 Leon .328 8 36

Quintana has an extra year. One reason I prefer him over Sale.

What a game! What a team! What a season! Let's keep it going.