moonslav59

What closer will come to the Sox knowing Kimbrel is the closer? If we tell Jansen or Chapman they will close, the following day Kimbrel will demand a trade.

Before we traded for Kimbrel, I suggested we choose either Buchholz or Kelly as a candidate for closer. Obviously, the trade put that idea to bed, but using both in the pen did become a reality. Both actually have done very well. I do think Kelly deserved a long look as a starter in April due to what he did at the end of 2015, but I hope he likes his new role and grows into it. He has tremendous stuff. As a RP'er he doesn't have to pace himself.

I like Hernandez more than most. I think he's close to being better than Holt and Hill at 3B. I'd take him over Holt and Marrero at SS. I'd put him behind Holt and Moncada at 2B. I doubt he can ever be a legitimate FT 3B on a contender, but it is not unreasonable to think he could develop into one shortly. That being said, I have very little faith in Shaw as a FT 3Bman next year. Hill will be gone (thankfully). Holt is not a FT position player, in my mind, and certainly not at 3B. His play in 2014 was part of the reason we decided to sign Pablo in the first place. I am not counting on one inning from Papblo next year, but I am far from counting him out as well. We have no legitimate 3B man, so all hands on deck!

I think people's talk of knuckleballer's "volatility" and "inconsistency" is overblown. If you look at Price and Buch and ERod, all had horrible stretches this year as long or longer than Wright's, but Wright and Wake before have been singled our more often as being untrustworthy. All pitcher's go through good and bad stretches (except Porcello this year--all good). I'll take Wright's 2016 season 10 times more please (without the injury), and his total body of work this year blows away any other starter besides Porcello and Price. Just because he had a bad streak before the LAD game does not mean he had lost it for the remaining season.

I never get why K's are viewed as highly as WHIP and ERA-. Porcello's last start wasn't as good as most others, but his FIP improves and his ERA- and WHIP got worse. I get why people want a park and defense independent number, but it's just one small piece in the formula for determining who has done the best.

All you can ask is to try and have the best team on paper heading into the playoffs playing well on somewhat healthy. I like where we are right now. It's where I thought we'd be.

So sad. Prayers to his family. Rest in peace Jose.

Well, actually if you read the opening post of this thread, it's more about 2017. Really, this thread is about all things to do with the Sox, with emphasis on 2016. I've been in Cancun for a couple days, so I'll have to watch the last 2 games when I get home tomorrow. Nice to see the streak is still alive!

7 game series vs a club with a long history of heartbreak would be a classic. Wrigley Field and Fenway Park- WOW! Theo vs DD. All the ex Sox players- Lester, Lackey, Rizzo and D Ross... I wouldn't say we'd be favorites, but I'd give us a significant chance at winning.

Best player and best season may be different, but best season is what the MVP should go to. Clearly trout his having a better season. One could argue his OBP is inflated due to pitchers being able to "pitch around him" due to weaker players around him, but if you do that, then maybe you should add RBIs to his total for playing on a team wherre nobody gets on base in front of him.

9 in a row and 14-3 in our last 17. Way to go Sox!

If I recall correctly, Texas gets the tiebreaker, which after head to head record, goes on to interdivision record. It should be league record as that would mean Texas gets helped twice by playing in a weaker division. I think Texas would win that tie-breaker, but at least it's fairer. How about this? Tiebreaker is comparing both teams' records vs the other teams' division. We're 21-12 vs the AL West. TEX is 15-15 vs the AL East. Looks like had we switched divisions, we'd have had a better record.

I realize adding a PR'er to the playoff roster might not seem like much, but having a 12th pitcher (Kelly? Scott?) probably means less. With so many days off before the first 5 day series, and then 2 days off within the series, I can't see the need for a 12th pitcher. We'll have Pomeranz for long relief needs. Having Holt, Hernandez and Hill is clearly redundant, even with Holt's ability to play OF. I could see a time where we might want to PH Moncada for Holaday/Hannigan or even the lifeless Shaw or Hill, so maybe Moncada could be used more than just as a PR'er. I like my roster, but I'd have no issue with subbing Moncada for Hill. Hill is JF's guy, so I doubt it happens. If anything, they may sub Moncada for Hernandez.

No doubt Moncada looked awful in his 8 games here since being called up, but I think it's rather harsh to call any 20 PA sample size a "failure". I know his issues go beyond batting. He looked shaky in the field and on the base paths too, but this kid is better than what he showed in those 8 games. Sample size, sample size, sample size!

There's good reason to put several people on the playoff roster over Hill. He's 14th on the team in OPS over the last 28 days (.678) He's 14th on the teaam in 2nd half OPS at .563.

I haven't forgotten his great season, but Trout has been a beast,

I really don't like Hill on the playoff roster but have trouble making suggestions since no other one we have is capable there. I am flabbergasted why they haven't given Hernandez a longer look at 3B. What do we have to lose? I'm thinking even Holt is a better option than Shaw and Hill.

I'm not sure the 1.8 WAR that fangraphs has for Shaw is the "real Shaw". He's got 0.2 WAR over the second half of 2016. In the context of his last years in the minors, I'm inclined to lean towards thinking "the real" Shaw is the second half Shaw not the first half Shaw, or at best someplace in between or a strict platoon player. .781 2012 (2nd half) AA .736 2013 (all season) AA .954 2014 (1st half) AA .752 2014 (2nd half) AAA .674 2015 (1st half) AAA .813 2015 (2nd half) MLB .788 2016 (1st half) MLB .685 2016 (2nd half) MLB I always had doubts about Shaw. A .795 AA OPS in 870 PAs is nothing special for a corner IF'er. A .715 AAA OPS in 668 PAs is scary. Together, the sample size is over 1500 PAs with about a .760 OPS, but he's been below .760 in 5 of his last 8 half seasons.

1. Trout 2. Betts + .074 in OBP + .015 in SLG Mookie's better on D and base running, but not by enough to make up for Trout's batting.

I'm not big on K's but the one K stat that matters to me is K/BB ratio: 6.0 Porcello 5.7 Tomlin 5.0 Sale 4.8 Price (Kluber is 9th at 4.0)

Wins should not be a major factor in winning the Cy young award. ERA- 69 Porcello 72 Kluber, Tanaka, A Sanchez 75 Wright, Verlander 76 Sale, Happ WHIP 0.98 Porcello 1.01 Verlander 1.03 Sale 1.05 Kluber 1.08 Tanaka 1.13 Estrada 1.15 Quintana 1.17 Happ 1.18 Price WAR 5.2 Kluber/Sale 4.9 Price 4.7 Porcello/Tanaka 4.6 Quintana Wins (and losses) 21-4 Porcello 17-8 Price 18-9 Kluber 14-4 Tanaka 16-9 Sale 12-11 Quintana Porcello is first in the numbers that mean the most to me: ERA- and WHIP. The 21-4 record seals the deal for me.

we're "settling" this year, but I'm not sure about next. Maybe Pablo and his salary will prevent us from trying to get another 3Bman this winter, especially when two of our best prospects, Moncada and Devers, play 3B and would be blocked if the deal is long. Shaw's a much better fielder than HanRam at 1B, but his bat is not even good enough to play 3B, let alone 1B.

I'd go with this... SP (4) Price, Porcello, ERod, Buch RP (7) Kimbrel, Ziegler, Uehara, Ross, Tazawa, Pomeranz, Abad C (2) Leon, Hanigan (Holaday?) 1B (1) HanRam 2B (2) Pedroia, Holt 3B (2) Shaw, Hill SS (2) Bogaerts, Hernandez LF (2) Benintendi, Young CF (1) Bradley RF (1) Betts DH (1) Ortiz Since Holt, Hill and Hernandez are somewhat redundant, I might swap out one (Hill) for PR'er Moncada. I can see the argument for Holaday over Hanigan, but I doubt it makes much difference. Leon will likely start all playoff games, except maybe two within the two consecutive three game stretches. I don't see any advantage of going with 12 pitchers with so many days off. If we did, I might go with Scott over Barnes or Kelly.

Here's something amazing about Papi's 2016 season: Most XBHs in a season 91 (2004) 88 (2005) 88 (2007) 86 (2016) Counting the HR and 2B tonight 85 (2006) It's possible he breaks his personal best this year. Having his second best XBH season is likely.

I know some of you are not big fans of WAR. I know their are issues and concerns. I have some of my own, but for argument's sake, let's use comparative positional WAR to see where are strengths and weaknesses are. Position Season WAR ranking (2nd half ranking) RF: 1st (2nd) DH: 2nd (6th) CF: 5th (14th) 1B: 6th (5th) SS: 7th (19th) LF: 9th (13th) 2B: 11th (9th) C: 13th (15th) 3B: 25th (26th & below replacement player level) SP: 9th (1st) RP: 9th (11th) Clearly 3B is our biggest issue, with RP'ing, C and LF as possible areas for improvement this off season. The retirement of Papi puts the DH position into the spotlight as well. The good news: our top prospects, Beni, Moncada and Devers all play a position of need (3B and LF). Devers is too far away to influence 2017, but perhaps Sam Travis, Pablo, Shaw, MOncada or Hernandez can carry us at corner IF until he's ready. A Mix of HanRAm, Young and others might lessen the hit we take at DH with the loss of Papi. Our rotation might not need "fixing" at all, as they have been the best in MLB over the second half. If we bring Buch back, we should have the depth we need. That leaves the pen as one big area of need. It won't be easy to replace Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa. Carson Smith may help some, but picking up two decent RP'ers seems like the right thing to do. One other solution might be to sign Justin Turner. He's a decent fielding 3Bman, soon to turn 32, and coming off 3 straight .800+ OPS seasons. I know that would further block Moncada and maybe Devers, if we sign him to over 2 years, but I'd prefer doing this than signing a DH. We might be able to later trade Moncada, Devers, Shaw or Pablo due to having him on the roster.