moonslav59

That's about the most and longest I'd even consider, but I think he gets much more. Not that it matters, but wouldn't Papi get a little peeved to see EE get $20M x 4, when all he could get was $16M x 2?

Nobody is arguing standing pat. There are more ways to improve a team by just trying to replace an outgoing stud's offense. I do think DD will go after Beltran or Turner- not a big named player seeking 4+ years. Here's another way to look at it: instead of trying to replace Papi's 600 PAs or 1.000+ OPS offense, we could replace these PAs with more from Beni (.865), Swihart (.720), Young (.894), Moncada, Leon (.891) and Holt (.717): PAs Player OPS 177 Vaz .580 124 Hill .554 110 Hanigan .463 64 Brentz .690 31 Holaday .459 12 Marrero .350 23 others going 3 for 36. That's about 550 PAs of putricity. I'm not saying this will make up for losing Papi, but it's a big step in the right direction. Add a couple strong set-up men in the pen, maybe upgrade a SP'er, pick up a Beltran or Turner, and we may come close to making 8up for Papi's loss without gambling on EE.

I think minimum, he gets $80M/4. I think some GM might offer $95M/5....like what the Sox gave Pablo!!!!!!! I bet he gets more than either of those offers, but if use papi's $16M as a benchmark, then maybe I'm way off..

Papi's best years: OPS+ 2012 173 2007 171 2016 165 2006 161 2013 159 2005 158 2011 154 2004 145 2003 144 2015 141 2014 140 10 of his 18 "real seasons" were over 140. 3 of those 11 have come after age 38! 6 of the 11 have come after age 35. SLG% 2006 .635 2016 .634 2007 .621 The only year he has led the league in OPS is 2016. 1.037 is his 3rd best career OPS. His .403 OBP is his 4th time over .400. wRC+ in 2016: Trout 171 Ortiz 166 Murphy 156 Donaldson 153 Votto 153 Papi "must be Buttah- cause he's on a roll!"

I'm working on what our current roster minus Papi might look like next year. I'm fine with this.... Swihart starts the season in AAA to get over his injury and get in stride. Moncada goes Winter League and spends ST'ing seriously learning to play 3B. He, too, starts the season in AAA at 3B. These are our 13 positional players on opening day: C- Leon & Vaz 1B HanRam 2B Pedey 3B Shaw SS Bogey LF Beni CF JBJ RF Betts DH Young v LHPs/ Pablo v RHPs Utility: Holt & Hernandez No Pablo? then who? It makes sense to me to have a bat like Swihart or Moncada on the 25 man roster. I guess we could pick up a cheap th OF'er for the last slot. minor league depth: C- Swihart (Butler/Romanski) --Holaday is out of options 1B- Swihart? S Travis, Witte 2B- Moncada, Rutledge, Marrero 3B- Moncada, Rutledge SS- Dubon, Marrero, Rutledge LF- Swihart, (Castillo), Brentz, Ramos, Tavarez CF- none - we have 3 OF'ers who can all play CF (Castillo) RF- none - (see CF)

I share your feeling, but I'm acting on an assumption that might be totally wrong- we will not make a major acquisition to replace Papi. I'm working on what our current roster minus Papi might look like next year. We may need to put tradition behind us for a short time, so we can put the best hitting team on the field next year. I see the great advantage of putting top athletes in AAA to improve their defense, if there is no starting role on the 25 man roster. That's a long-standing tradition that has a lot of merit. However, our offense may need help, and right now, I see Moncada and Swihart (along with beni in LF) as the leading candidates to greatly increase their MLB PAs from 2016 to 2017. They are ahead of Pablo, Hernandez, Holt, Vazquez and maybe even Young (vs RHPs anyway) on offense. The issue is how to get their bats into the line-up without severely limiting our defense. Moncada looks to need much more time at 3B to be decent on defense. Playing DH and practicing 3B on his off time may not be the ideal chocie, but if his bat can help us win, we may have to put him at DH for a while anyway (vs RHPs). One major reason I suggested Swihart learn 1B or 3B was so he wouldn't have to DH. I have no idea how Sox management views his possibilities as a corner IF'er, and I defer to their judgment on that one. I don't see Swihart beating out Leon next year, and I'm not sure even healthy, he's above Vaz on the depth chart. Putting him in AAA might be a good idea, but we'd need Leon or Vaz to get hurt or suck for him to ever get out of AAA, unless he just totally started raking AAA pitching. This is one reason, I have discussed trading Swihart. Clearly, other teams have greater needs at catching than us. I'd love to keep Swihart. If he could play 1B and HanRam DH, or 3B and Shaw 1B and HR DH, then he could get is PAs at the ML level easily. It would also be nice to have a 3rd catcher for late inning moves. That's why I prefer trading Holt over Swihart, even with the return for Swihart being greater. Plus, Swihart does give us catcher depth, in case of injury or implosion. I don't like the idea of DH'ing Swihart or Moncada. I'd prefer HanRan DH vs RHPs and Young vs LHPs, with Swihart and Moncada pushing to win a corner IF job away from Shaw or HanRam (who could DH full time). There may even be competition from Pablo, but I'm not counting on that.

You could seriously rebuild the pen by signing Chapman or Jansen and then adding someone like Melancon. Adding a decent pitcher like Hellickson couldn't hurt. You could take a flyer on Brett Anderson, but you're right, there really isn't much on the FA market pitching-wise. Maybe you could trade McCann and/or Garnder for a decent #3 slot innings eater- perhaps with a big contract.

Projected season ending stats (1.067 x current numbers): Papi .318 38 130 Betts .317 33 116 HanR .292 30 114 Bogey .296 21 94 JBJ .276 28 93 Shaw .249 17 75 Young .285 10 23 Leon .328 8 36

Quintana has an extra year. One reason I prefer him over Sale.

What a game! What a team! What a season! Let's keep it going.

On Holt: I love the guy and recognize the high value for having a guy that can play 7 positions. His role on a 25 man roster allows the manager to make other moves feeling safe that Holt is always there "just in case". However, with the departure of our DH only DH, and the addition of Hernandez, Swihart, Beni or Moncada will push Holt down the depth chart at a number of positions. He's already just the 5th OF'er, and he might be the 6th with a healthy Swihart. He might be the 4th or 5th option at 3B next year, depending on Pablo and Hernandez being on the 25 man roster. He may have slipped behind Moncada as the first back-up 2Bman. (Hernandez can play 2b too, like tonight.) He should never play 1B with HanRam, Shaw and maybe a newly trained Swihart. I prefer Hernandez at SS over Holt. Dubon is rising quickly. Where will Holt be the first guy off the bench, if any one single player goes on the DL? Maybe 2B depending on Moncada's readiness? This Holt-less roster has a lot of flexibilty and depth: (parenthesis not on this version of 25 man roster) Current projected starters in BOLD by me C- Leon Vaz Swihart (We can PH for our catchers late in the game with Swi on the roster.) 1B- HanRam, Shaw, Swihart? (Pablo, Travis) 2B- Pedey, Moncada, Hernandez, marrero (Rutledge) 3B- Shaw, Moncada, Hernandez, (Pablo, Rutledge, Marrero) SS- Bogey, Hernandez, (Rutledge, Marrero, Dubon) LF- Beni, Young, Swihart, Shaw CF- JBJ, Betts, Beni, Young RF- Betts, JBJ, Beni, Young DH- Swihart- Young, HanRam, (Pablo) looks deep and strong

I don't see Swihart riding the bench for too long with the Sox. If he's healthy next year, he's got as good a shot as anyone for the FT DH job, or at least vs RHPs (450 PAs a year there alone). If he can get a few scraggly PAs at catcher, PH'er when not starting, and some in LF, then he'd get over 500 or 550 PAs. I wouldn't call that a "utility" player in the true sense of the term. My call for him to maybe learn 1B or 3B was not meant as a road to a utility role, but more as a way for him to win a FT or major role in that one position. 3B is up in the air right now. Maybe the Sox want HanRam to DH next year. That would open up Swihart to have a good chance at winning that position. I realize the value piece that being a catcher entails. That's one reason I have suggested Swihart as a possible trade cadnidate, since his value as a catcher for another team is probably higher than his value to us as a DH, 1Bman, 3Bman or Lf'er... or "utility". Of course, I have not given up on him as our catcher of the future, and I have not anointed Leon as our catching savior, but with 3 pretty well-regarded major league ready catchers on the roster, I can see why a Swihart trade could be in order. I'll talk about Holt in my next post.

I know I'm being selfish, but I'm still hoping Papi has so much fun this year, his feet feel good at season's end, and he decides to come back for one more year. It really would work well with giving Beni and Moncada one more year without pressure to make up for much (some) of his loss.

Lot's of supposition and conjecture, but the event could have triggered the demotion. With how poorly Hanigan did, it makes me wonder what might have happened had Leon crapped out.

EE turns 34 in January. There's little doubt this is his last big chance to cash in. He's made under $30M for the last 3 years combined. At his production level, my feeling is, he's going to want to maximize his vale. I could be wrong, but why would he sign a 2 years deal that brings him to age 36? I suppose he could sign for 4 years at a higher rate than some GM's 5 year offer, but even a 4 year deal seems scary when he approaches 38 in his final year. Not every player is like Papi. Papi is a freak of nature. I'd love to have EE smack in the middle of our line-up, but these large and long deal have been killing us, and this one seems like there are red flags going up every where. He's basically a DH only. If he plays 1B in NL parks, we have to sit HanRam. That's not good. Even Papi didn't make $24+M. He barely made 2/3rds of that! Hes' right- handed....further "unbalancing" our team. If we truly have just $30-35M to spend, signing EE and taking Buch's option means no money left over for the pen. If we don't take Buch back, our rotational depth is weakened. Plus, just $10-12M might not be enough to add 1 quality RP'ers. My guess is we go after Beltran (bats S), Adam Lind (L), Martin Prado ®, K Morales(S), or Justin Turner (R but .915 OPS v RHPs this year) Maybe we can expand on a trade for an ace with the White Sox and get Abreu or Frazier. It doesn't seem like anyone sticks out as an obvious target.

I agree on Gardner, but I'm not sure how much they'll get for him. I agree on the going all out for youth movement and had hoped the Sox took that route when they had their big sell- off. That doesn't prevent them from trying to win in 2017 by signing a couple key players.

You get 450-500 just being a straight platoon who plays against all RH'd starters. If they can make him a LF'er, they can make him a DH- either FT or vs RHPs only as Young plays vs LHPs. Since Swihart is a switch hitter who seems to hit well from both sides, he should get some more PAs vs LHPs when an OF'er or HanRam needs a rest or is hurt. I'm not sure he could ever become a decent defensive 3Bman, but hat could also be an option. He'll have plenty of chances to win a FT job, if he can hit as advertised. He has much more offensive upside than Holt.

Like Is aid at the start of the season, all AL teams have bigger and or more weaknesses than us. They also had less in-system options through depth to try and fill those holes. Now, those weaknesses are coming to the forefront. Imagine if we were playing like the Jays right now! This place would be going ape s***. The O's have survived on smoke and mirrors long enough. The Rangers and Guardians look comparable on paper, but they have holes still. The injuries suck for the Guardians, but we lost our first half ace and our number one set up man was out all year. Our 4-5 starters lost their jobs. Our 1-2 catchers sucked or got hurt. Our 3Bman was beaten out. Lots of things went wrong for us, but we had the depth to cover just about every weakness, and the Pomeranz trade was insurance. We haven't clinched anything yet. There's a long way to go, but I wouldn't change places with any AL team right now, just as I wouldn't have day one this year.

I'm not doubting you, but I wish you could find the link.

I doubt they trade Swihart coming off an injury, but you never know I guess. I'm not sure an injury like his will significantly affect his value, but I can see us waiting on Swihart before making a deal. (That's one reason I mention Holt as a trade piece so often.) They definitely won't turn him into a utility player at this stage of his development. The only way he makes the big league roster coming out of spring training is as the starting catcher, which is obviously unlikely. He'll play every day somewhere. My guess would be the starting catcher in Pawtucket. I do think he starts the season at Pawtucket. I'm not sure the Sox are locked into making him their catcher. (That's one reason I have mentioned trading him.) I still think they like Vazquez more than Swihart, and Leon has knocked them both down a notch. Assuming Swihart gets healthy and he's living up to his offensive expectations, and he could learn to play 1B, I think he could get 500+ PAs without owning a position. Anytime an OF'er gets hurt or needs a rest, Swihart could play LF or DH (where ever Young does not play). He could DH or play 1B vs RHPs (where ever HanRam does not play). Even if he doesn't play 1B, he could DH vs all RHPs, if he proves he can hit well enough. If he can't, then trading him won't be a huge loss in the long run. He could catch here and there. I'd prefer to keep Swihart over Holt, but I doubt we trade either of them.

No, he's not. It's definitely a different mentality playing with the Sox rather than the Marlins or Dodgers. HanRam has matured a lot since the days we traded him.

I'm not for handing them away for nothing. I'm for trading from an area of duplication for an area of high need. We have Vazquez and Holaday. We have Hernandez, Young, Rutledge, Shaw, Moncada, Pablo and maybe eventually Dubon and Travis. We need better pitching.

Beni is left-handed. Or, were you thinking Pedey, Bogey, Betts, HanRam? We could try to stick JBJ in the top 4 somehow next year. Counting on Beni or Moncafa to be successful in a top 4 slot may be asking too much, at least to start the season. How's this? Pedey Bogey JBJ (vs RHPs) Betts HanRam\ we could slide Betts to 3 vs lefties and Young to 4th.

I'm not sure why we haven't used Hernandez more. He's shown he can hit everywhere, but has not had a large enough ML sample size to know. I think we keep Leon and Vaz, but we might have Swihart as the #3C and #5 LF'er plus maybe teach him 1B. He could DH, if his bat progresses. Shaw makes the team unless traded. I'd put him at 3B, until Moncada is fully ready to play there. I suppose Pablo could beat him out, but I seriously doubt it. So, counting Young as the DH/4th OF, Vaz and Swi, that's 11. That leaves room for 2 more out of Holt/Hernandez and Moncada/Pablo with Sam Travis as a possible mid season addition. I think it makes sense to trade Holt or Swihart, but not both. I suppose we could trade Moncada in a package to get an ace, but I don't see that happening.

I don't think we need to spend big money to replace Papi or to upgrade our rotation, besides, there's no top quality FA starters on the market. I think we can spend the money on the pen and maybe only the pen. That might mean we don't have to trade for a pen arm. I get what you are saying about the "crap shoot" aspect of acquiring relief pitchers, but getting RP'ers with better histories does improve the chances they do well with us. Stockpiling a few extra can't hurt either, since many of our pen arms still have options, so we can start them in AAA for later use. I'd still like to see an upgrade at SP'er. I like Pomeranz, but he wasn't my idea of a building from the top type move. I think we might see a trade involving one of our starters plus Holt or Swihart and maybe Devers or Moncada for a much better, proven SP'er under team control for several years. I could see something like ERod, Swihart, Devers and maybe Dubon or Owens for Sale or Quintana.