moonslav59

They don't need to stay under next year. That's why we are trying to reset the level this year. We can go $20M over next year.

Better idea.

I still think the Dodger dump trade was one of the best deals any Sox GM ever made. He helped purge Theo's mistakes and make the team able to compete for many years afterwards. Uehara was maybe Ben's best get and re-sign. Also, I'd say the one year deal with bonuses attached for Napoli in 2013 was better than the Vic deal. He also trade Lowrie and Weiland for Mark Melancon. The Cody Ross signing was very good. Other good deals: Lars Anderson for Steven Wright Signed Rich Hill for dirt- twice. Acquired Mike Carp for cash. Signed Int'l FAs: Moncada (C Sale), Manuel Margot & J Guerra (Kimbrel), both Basabes, T-W Lin, and others- many used in trades by DD. Drafted & signed: Benintendi (7), Marrero (24), M Chavis (26), B Johnson (31), M Kopech (33), S Travis (67) and several others- many used in trades by DD.

At least Votto has shown no signs of decline or instability like HRam and Pablo did before their signings. Other than 2014, Votto has been between .947 and 1.021 every year since 2009 (8 of 9 seasons). He does turn 34 this September, so the future decline concern should be real. He will turn 40 his final year of his contract (2023). He also has a $7M buyout for 2024 (age 40-41) or a $20M option. His 6 to 7 year remaining deal seems like it's too long for a post-prime player, and we'd have to hope he doesn't turn into an Albert Pujols, but I think he's worth making a serious offer for. I'm not sure what it would take, so I'll hold off saying he'd be worth getting.

True, but no Vic- No ring.

Reed would be a great get but at what cost for a 2 month rental RP'er? To me, Groome & Chavis would be too much. I might give Ockimey or Travis plus Beeks and/or Lakins. We could add Holt (or Marrero/Lin). If they wanted Holt, we'd save some cash. They could flip Holt to someone.

They look at the formula, and with Bogey's decline this year from 2016, Boras will ask for what he thinks he might get from the arb hearing. The Sox will look at the formula and come up with their number. My guess is both will fall in the $7-11M range. (Note: I'm no expert on arbs, but I came pretty close last year.)

It comes down to the final cost Henry will have to pay. Looking at just 2018, assuming we reset the tax this year: A) Bring Castillo up. Pay him $11M. Luxury tax cost: $11M. Sign a FA for $5M/1 yr. Pay Castillo $11M + $5M for new FA= $16M plus luxury tax cost (12% of $16M= about $2M)= $18M The bigger problem would occur as we enter Castillo's 5th, 6th and 7th years of his deal. If he sucks, we cannot remove him from the luxury tax budget for the remainder of his contract, and the tax would go up to %20%, 30% and then 50%. Now, we're talking about calling him up probably being worse than signing a FA for those next 3 years. It's not a simple choice to make. DD and Henry will have to gauge the likelihood of Castillo being a plus for the remainder of his contract. That's a risk. 12% + 20% + 30% + 50% of $11M totals over $12M in additional luxury taxes that Henry would not have to pay had he left Castillo in Purgatory.

Pablo got $19M x 5. I think the Bogey numbers mentioned are for his arb number- not his FA number.

Then watch Votto steadily decline and eat up cap space.

It's Henry's call not ours. I love for us to blow by the luxury tax limit every year. Until I see it, even from "far away" Texas, I won't believe it. I think the plan is to re-set this year and then throw money at fixing the major problems with this team- most notably the lack of power. I also think we still have a good chance at winning this year too, but 2018 to 2019 should be better.

I'm not ready to fold in on 2017, but I agree. The idea was that we can blow by the luxury tax limit in 2018 and 2019 as long as we don't reach the second penalty phase. We can make a major signing next winter to boost the clean-up slot in our order. We may even be able to sign two big names.

edited with an addition

I have suggested replacing JF way back when. I am not against adding a big bat 1Bman, but think the luxury tax re-set is a higher priority. Some significant bats have been traded already that would not have put us over the limit or broken the farm. I'm not sure the hitting coach is at fault, but maybe a change there might help. I do expect some of our players to improve their numbers by season's end with or without any changes. I think some of our players are better than what they have shown so far, and I expect them to play like they are as we finish out this season. Could I be wrong? hell, yes, but we have players who have done very well for 1.5 or more years before 2017, and their numbers are just about all down this year. I get the loss of Papi argument. I get the "wish we had signed EE" argument, but we weren't lighting the world on fire when Moreland was hitting as well as EE for the first 2 months of 2017. I'm not sure there is any single element to the wide spread declines of virtually all of our batters. I'm not sure there's much we can do about it besides maybe trying to light a spark by firing JF or trading for another bat beyond Nunez. My guess is, we just ride it out and hope the first 4 months of 2017 were the outlier and not 2016.

I didn't mean to imply we should have brought them all back, and at the time, I was not for bringing any back at even less than what they ended up getting. My point was we needed to replace their 2016 numbers and guys like Kelly, Barnes and Hembree were not instilling uber confidence in us fans back last winter and spring. We all felt our pen needed additions. S5 was right about our tendencies towards revisionist histories. Here are Shaw's numbers by halves before the trade: '16 .619 MLB .788 MLB '15 .839 MLB .674 AAA (YES, just .674 before his call-up!) '14 .752 AAA (Again, not very good for AAA.) .954 AA '13 .721 AA (Not good) .744 AA (Not very good) '12 .781 AA (Okay for first half after promotion) .957 A+ (Note: second half is listed first, and TS had a long history of dropping off in the second half, although several year he was promoted to a higher level mid season.) Let's not pretend that Shaw was a sure bet to have an OPS over .790 this year, let alone over .940. He wasn't even over .790 the first half of 2016. In his 9 half seasons before his trade (all at AA or higher), Shaw had these OPS: 2 over .790 4 from .722-.789 1 from .676-.721 2 under .675 7 of 9 halves were under .790. He had as many seasons under .675 as over .790, and both were in his last 4 half seasons.

Certainly 2016 numbers for some of our younger players might end up being outliers or career highs, but normally players continue to improve from ages 22-26 or 27. Not everyone does, and there are usually some ups and downs along the way. The striking decline from 2016 to 2017 by every single Sox player, except Vaz (who still sucks at the plate) is what is at question. We don't have any hitters older than 33. Even HRam, Pedey, Moreland and Young are not significantly post-prime, and yet all of them, except Moreland who wasn't here last year have declined from 2016. The "career norm" numbers for younger players often skews the total downward due to struggles in the earlier 1-2 years of their career. That is part of the reason we continue to see players do better than their career norms as they progress from year 2 to year 4 or 5. But, the other part is that players normally improve from year-to-year until ages 26-29. Of course, there are players who do not follow the age curve norm. Some have great starts and never come close to those numbers again. Some improve after age 30. Some players moved from one age group to the next, but these numbers are telling for our pre-prime and prime year players: Age group OPS 2016>2017 18-25: .807 (1917)> .769 (1468 PAs) 26-30: .759 (1968)> .658 (1237) 31-35: .796 (1809)> .761 (1335) 36-45: 1.021 (626)> N/A Nobody expected every young player to improve on their 2016 numbers, but I do think it was reasonable to expect a couple to do so, of that the aggregate numbers of our players under 30 would be someplace close to 2016 numbers. The full season from Beni could have made up for some drop-offs by others.

Yes, and with Devers on the rise and over $10M in cap space, the idea was that we could fix the problem mid season, if we needed to. Our pen has over performed, and I think people forget that we lost Uehara, Ziegler and Tazawa and the belief was we needed a guy like Thornburg to boost our staff. I can just imagine how fans would be reacting, if our pen blew up after great starts by Sale and others. They'd have roasted DD alive for not seeing the need for building up the pen.

There are penalties beyond just financial for going significantly over the limit. We will be hitting that wall in 2-4 years. Re-setting the tax level this year (or next) is a high priority but not necessarily 100% necessary, but that all depends on how much Henry wants to commit to the win now vs later philosophy. By re-setting the tax this year, I think the idea is to go up to the higher penalty limit without going over. This would allow a very significant amount of more money to be available for 2018 and 2019 and maybe even 2020. Win now means 2017, 2018 and 2019 (maybe 2020) not just 2017.

Nobody is disputing that Papi helped the line-up.

Pretty amazing that our OPS leader is only at .810, and even after tonight's game we only have one guy over .791: .810 Betts .791 Pedey .790 JBJ .784 Nunez (2 teams) .782 HRam .756 Beni .752 Bogey .726 Moreland .719 Young .684 Leon .654 Vaz I guess the good news is that none of our top 7 PA players are under .752. For those who wanted "balance", you got it! 7 of our top playing players have an OPS within a range window of .058, and our top 8 batters by PAs have an OPS window of just .084. (Top 9 window is .091)

On the farm... Brentz, Travis and Lin all with 2 hits for Pawtucket Chavis was 1 for 3 with an HR and a BB. He now has 25 HRs in just 350 ABs. OPS leaders on the farm (290+ PAs): .977 Chavis .966 Barfield .955 Devers .875 Brentz .857 de la Guerra .839 Ockimey .824 Castillo ERA (65+ IP) 2.05 Velazquez 2.56 J Beeks 2.75 Olmos 3.12 Jimenez 3.25 D Gonzalez 3.38 Walden

MAYbe this win will light the spark that seems to to have been missing all season.

I'm a big believer that Chris Sale will have a cascading effect on the whole team. Certainly, it looks like we should have kept Travis Shaw or acquired a big bat instead of Moreland, but there is still time to pullt his team together to win it all this year. I would like to see us pick up a solid hitting 1Bman in the next couple days, but even if we don't, I think we can still win it this year and/or the next 2-3 years as well.

No, they were not. The Sox made a lot of mistakes that went back even before Ben. We paid the price. I will say that few expected last place finishes with those rosters, especially 2012's.

I never really saw Papi as a clubhouse leader. He led by example and certainly had an influence on all who played with him, but to see every single player decline from 2016 to 2017 is mind-boggling.