moonslav59

...it's hard to argue with a worst-to-first season, and we remain well-set for the next few... I agree, but I felt the same way after 2013.

You're probably right. The one way I can see us getting Turner is if we trade Moncada and or Devers as part of the blockbuster needed to get Sale or Quintana.

If you look at our biggest three weak areas and the free agent market, which of these players has the best chance of being a Red Sox next year? RP: Jansen, Chapman Melancon 3B: Turner DH: Encarnacion, Beltran, Bautista

haw does not really have very much actual competition at third base until Sandoval begins to seriously redeem himself. Which he has not yet done. He lost his job to Hill and Holt. I do think he might be the best we got looking to next year, but certainly a guy who lost his job has competition going forward.

Holt was, unfortunately, well below average as a third baseman. His thing is about being able to show up at multiple positions without being a major liability in any of them, but third base is one of his weaker ones. There is simply other, better ways to use the talent that is Brock Holt. Shaw also outhit Holt on the season for what that's worth. Holt outhit Shaw over the second half of the season, and that's why he was given the job once Hill bombed out. What's weird about Holt, to me, is that his career UZR/150 at various positions is all over the map, and the positions you think he's not good at, look better on paper. Of course, some of these sample sizes are tiny, but here they are... Inn. Pos. UZR/150 798 3B -11.6 681 2B +3.9 610 LF -12.1 453 RF +16.4 212 SS +12.0 119 1B -2.0 76 CF -33.2 I'd say he should be better at 3B than SS and better at LF than CF. I do think his best position is 2B with maybe LF/3B tied for second.

Every number I've seen said that Shaw had an above average season playing defense at third. The only possible debate between the various metrics is how far above the average he was. Well, UZR/150 is one pretty respected metric. You have to go down to 550 innings to get a sample size of 32 players at 3B. You need 30 to determine what is "average", since there are 30 teams and 30 3Bmen in MLB. Shaw ranked 17th out of 32 at +1.6. That's slightly below average. If you go to 572 innings, the sample size is 30. Shaw ranks 16th out of 30- slightly below "average". Amazingly, he ranks 6th in DRS even though he ranks 21st in innings played at 3B. I'm okay with calling him slightly plus this year at 3B Defense, but I have to challenge those who are acting like his defense is so good, it makes up for his questionable bat. Now, when comparing him to Pablo, Holt and others, I have no gripe with anyone who ranks him number 1 right now as projected for 2017 opening day.

Shaw's got a good base of defense to justify his spot in the lineup while he works on his offensive approach. He's average, at best on defense at 3B. I wouldn't say being average justifies much, but when you're going against Pablo and Holt....

Maybe JBJ, Swihart and Pom.

I don't base my opinion on stats. Really, I don't. I played the game I love so much for many years. I watch every pitch of every Sox game. I draw conclusions based on my observations, but when it comes to comparative analysis I realize my observations are limited, so I look to stats to support or refute my observational conclusions. I get the argument on Dempster, and though I don't value the "great clubhouse guy" as much as some do, I don't discount it either.

I never said Lugo was great, but in 2007, he had plus range at SS. That was lost after 2007 due to injuries and decline. He was barely above replacement value that year, but he wasn't a negative. I can't believe I was defending Lugo after spending months arguing with softy the clown and his "He was the wire-to-wire SS for a championship club" rants. I stand corrected. He didn't play "well". he played "okay", but he certainly played much better than the folloing years,

Hard to let go when Miller is pitching so well, but your point is well taken.

Totally agree, and Lugo actually played well in 2007, including decent D at SS.

We could have also had ERod and Miller.

Assuming he's not just the second half Shaw for all of next year.

Even Dubon could be an in-season option.

Projecting ahead Xander becomes FA in 2020, JBJ and Betts the following year. Pablo's and Hanley's contracts will go away after 2019 season, $5M buy out on Pablo's. That will release $40M in annual contracts. Rick Porcello will be a free agent for 2020 season along with Xander. I'm thinking $40M 'savings', adjusted for mlb 'inflation' (I'm not talking about cpi for your nerds out there) will cover Xander and Porcello. Porcello signing maybe more critical than Xander's at that point. We may have other options. Beni, Moncada, Devers all maybe in their prime by then as they go through their arbitration years. Sox will still be locked into Price's contract until 2022, $32M per year. No way we'll not resign Betts. I would love it but I just don't think we can afford to have EE's contract if it goes beyond 4 years. Too much money will be needed to keep our current youngsters on the roster by then. That is why I won't be too upset if we don't do much this winter. Yes Moon, we'll need to shore up our bullpen but we can do it without giving up the farm. E Rod needs to be given time to develop into upper echelon starting pitcher (ie DO NOT TRADE HIM). Who knows if he'll get there but you don't trade away a guy with his potential. At a comparable age, 2017 season would have been Lester's break out year (something similar to what Porcello did in 2016). Guys like Wright and Pomeranz also need to be retained. They come cheap. I don't disagree with anything here. I do think we can keep all the kids, if we don't get wrapped up in any deals that go beyond 2019. I'm not worried about the 50% penalty if we are going over the limit by $20M at max. That's only a $10M penalty. It's just cash at that point. We paid $30M penalty on a $30M signing. And what was the posting fee for our friend from Japan? 50% penalty on say $10M? I'll speak for John Henry. In my best imitation of Matt Damon to Johnny Chan in movie Rounders, "Don't sweat it, Moon". I really don't care, if we go over, but I've always gone on the assumption we won't go over by much, since we never have. This past season was the most, and we have to also look at the fact that Henry is also paying for Craig and Castillo, so that $10M tax is amplified. I'd be happy, if we signed EE and Jensen, as long as we planned to lock up our kids when the time comes. I looked at last winter as a one time splurge to get us back to significance with the idea that we'd reset the luxury tax this winter or next, and if it was next winter, we wouldn't go over by much this winter. I could be wrong. I have been before.

Agreed, but it gets a little foggy when you talk about Julio Lugo, Jake Peavy and Ryan Dempster.

Vic's $13M in 2014 and $13M in 2015 sure didn't help, but I'm okay with the "if you win a ring" argument as long as the player clearly had a significant role in the championship. There's a lot of nostalgia over the Theo and Tito years, and mush is well founded, but there were clear reasons why both are gone right now. Do I wish we had Tito back? Yes. Was I against his being shown the door? Not really. Do I wish we had Theo instead of DD? Yes. Can we look at his total body of work since the Nomar trade and see that much was not so bright and sunny? There was a lot of good Theo did. We won another ring in 2007, we added some good young talent and we stayed competetive just about every year after 2004. Here are some of the head-scratchers: Renteria (We paid essentially $30M for that one year here.), Arroyo>Pena, Wade Miller, Matt Clement (injury), Julio Lugo, Dice-K, Penny & Smoltz, Rizzo> AGon, Carl Crawford, Reddick> A Bailey (injury) Beckett extension, not moving Andrew Miller to the pen earlier... There's probably more, and there's certainly a lot of good things I failed to mention, but let's remember, even Theo admitted he had "lost sight" of best way to build a team. I get the pining for the good ole days, but let's not forget the significant issues this team had when Theo and Tito left.

I was against the signing. It was not a "mistake". Vic was a big part of our 2013 ring. One could argue he helped contribute to our last place finishes afterwards. In hindsight, I'd do the deal again, but I was against it at the time.

You worded it to insinuate that Ramirez, Dempster & Victorino were all mistakes. I've been against many moves, but I'm not right all the time. I liked the HanRam deal better than the Pablo deal. Some said HanRam could have gotten more money. Had we done HanRam without Pablo, I'd have liked it better. Originally, I thought HanRam at 3B was the better idea. First base turned out to be much better- clearly much better than LF. I liked Vic a lot. His overall play in 2013 was an essential part of our championship. I did not like the deal because of the 3 years. In my opinion, I was right, but the deal was not a "mistake". We won a ring, and his $39M was part of the cost. I don't feel like bringing up the Dempster argument. I didn't like it, but I wouldn't say it was a mistake, especially since he did us a favor by retiring year 2. I meant that in the context of the alternative of him returning when he didn't really have his heart in it... and as a year older. He ate innings. He didn't embarrass himself. He was a positive clubhouse guy. I can't change the fact that I was against the deal at the time. The Masterson deal was a mistake. Even the staunchest Sox brass supporter (or apologist) has to agree there, even if just on the hindsight view.

No, but I do feel it was a symptom of Beckett's loss of a winning "attitude". Maybe some rubbed off- maybe not. It's the age old question: did the bad attitude cause the collapse or did the collapse cause the bad attitude? Maybe neither..

Bringing in a knuckler might work to throw off the opps timing, but I think Wright could prove to be too good to be in the pen.

I was one of Wake's biggest defenders vs the softy the clown's onslaught on that "other site". I have always wanted Wright to get a solid chance at starting. I was bummed when he got hurt last year after 9 pretty good starts. Too many people right off knucklers (pun intended). Wright had a great first half to 2016. I think he deserves an inside track to the rotation.

It wasn't a "story": it was real. So was the Shoppach's text from AGon's phone.

I never said Vic and Ramirez were mistakes. I said I was against both signings. I do think Dempster was a mistake but understandable. We lucked out when he retired.