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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    With close to $10M to spend, we could get some top talent at the deadline and still stay under. Only a third of the player's salary would be charged to us.
  2. moonslav59
    If we could trade Abad (saving $2M) and get Holland at a reasonable rate, we'd be taking a risk, but we'd have an upside that could be enormous. I'm not saying I want to do it, but something like this could be worth it, if we'd still leave some wiggle room for the deadline.
  3. moonslav59
    It's not "base salary" that is used for luxury tax purposes. The average yearly salary of the contract is the number used. Alex Speier has us at $179.4M plus $1M for incentives and $4M for mid season depth call-ups to put us around $184M. https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/12/07/red-sox-have-some-payroll-flexibility-but-not-lot/8kxd3dJOmnTWjEbsCODbfO/story.html That leaves us $11M in flex spending. That's plenty for the deadline to acquire 2 guys making $30M combined (seasonal), since the prorated cost would be $10M. We reset the tax for next year and then can go over without paying a 50% tax. I think our next self imposed limit will be to stay under the $20M over the limit amount where a separate set of penalties kick in. I think we can do that pretty easily and pay all the key arb raises and maybe acquire one significant FA (or extend a star). If we hadn't signed Moreland, I could see justifying going after JB, but not now.
  4. moonslav59
    True, but resetting this winter is easier than I the next few
  5. moonslav59
    He'll be a FA under the new CBA.
  6. moonslav59
    It's my understanding that no player can be given a QO twice. I wouldn't sign him to even $9M/1
  7. moonslav59
    We should be able to acquire some top talent at the deadline, if needed, and we can still stay below the limit. Resetting the tax this year makes too much sense to give up on. We will be able to extend our stars and or sign stars in a plentiful market next winter and beyond.
  8. moonslav59
    I'm basing my projections on where teams stand right now. I do think the al east will be the best again in 2017 but not like 2016.
  9. moonslav59
    I disagree. What's the odds on this example player's projected next 100 or 1000 PAs? .000 .333 .167 .310? I'd project closer to .333 than anything else, unless the player is old or the original sample size was not large enough, or a long trend was under way before the 0-20 slump.
  10. moonslav59
    I'm still not convinced, and the proof I asked for is just the creator saying it is the best. There is no adjustments made for pitchers with low k rates who consistently get hitters to hit into outs. Again, I respect the attempt to minimize the impact of fielders on a pitcher's success, but by totally removing it from the equation, the low k great pitchers are penalized. They have Wright as below avg while his ERA- was tremendous. That's a metric that also accounts for several factors.
  11. moonslav59
    I think 98 wins is pretty accurate. It would probably have been 103 had Papi not retired.
  12. moonslav59
    Some positions, like RF, get way less action than a position like SS. So, a season sample size for a SS is more telling than just a season from an OF'er.
  13. moonslav59
    Please provide the link to the study that proves this to be the best predictive metric out there. I refuse to respect metrics that are biased against low k rate top pitchers.
  14. moonslav59
    Agreed. Maybe this tweak will be enough to keep him out of the games, but not affect his season with the sox.
  15. moonslav59
    Ten bounce back pitchers still on the market: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/10-bounceback-pitcher-candidates-still-available-in-free-agency.html
  16. moonslav59
    I get your concern, but plenty of US players play in the Olympics and risk hurting their team. There ahs been debate about that situation as well, and ERod playing anywhere else except Boston worries me, but I can't fault a guy for being patriotic.
  17. moonslav59
    There are countless pitchers with low K rates that consistently got guys out and had lower ERAs than FIP. They get screwed by the metric. It's a giant hole. Pitchers who get batters out should not be penalized because they lack a high K rate. I get the reasoning behind trying to get the fielders out of the equation, and FIP has a use, but the giant bias needs to be corrected before I pay it much heed.
  18. moonslav59
    If we could trade Abad and save $2M, I think we could afford to add a RP'er making $4-6M and still have enough wiggle room to add a decent player at the deadline, as we'll only be on the hook for 1/3 of his salary at that point in the season. That means if we have $5M to spend at the deadline and still stay under the limit, we could acquire a player making about $15M on the season as a whole.
  19. moonslav59
    Because he started 30 games to Wright's 24. Like I said, it's close, and I'm fine with either choice. My point is that even if you call them equal as starters, Pom has shown he's much better in relief than Wright, so that's the tipping poiint in my opinion- not the slight advantage Wright has as a starter both in 2016 and over their careers.
  20. moonslav59
    I'm more worried about Beni's somewhat fragility or injury risk than his performance level risk. With Young, Swihart and Holt/Moreland as emergency LF'ers, I think we'll be fine in LF. I see a major increase in LF production and defense next year.
  21. moonslav59
    From what I hear, we are about $14M under the limit, but every time we call up a minor leaguer and pay him a MLB salary, we add a little. That means we really might have about $9-11M of flex space. Your numbers leave out the player benefits payment of about $13M that counts against the luxury tax budget. Plus, payroll is different from average salary cost of each player.
  22. moonslav59
    Yes, he deserves a chance to show what he can do. I will mention that I see little evidence from his long history to show he has the skills to build a very good farm system.
  23. moonslav59
    Even if you look at 2016 only (both suffered injuries that may have affected their late season numbers): ERA+ Wright 137 Pomeranz 128 ERA- Wright 75 Pomeranz 79 Wright faced tougher teams in the AL East, a DH most of the games, and pitched in a hitter's park. Pom faced easier opponents and pitched many games in one of MLB's best pitcher's parks.
  24. moonslav59
    Because he has a much better record in relief than Wright, and they are both pretty even as SP'ers. I actually like Wright's SP'ing numbers slightly more than Poms. His percent of games allowing 0-2 or 0-3 ERs is better than Pom's. It's a close call. Either way is fine with me.
  25. moonslav59
    Jeter went from being near average to being one of the worst defensive SSs in his time.
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