moonslav59

There's just not much out there on the RP'er FA market beyond the 3 closers. I hope we offer Koji a competitive contract. Incentives sounds good, but if he's looking primarily at guaranteed money, I'd go maybe $9M/1 with a $500K bonus for 35 IP pitched and another for 50 IP.

Yes, I understand. I'm no spring chicken myself!

I actually had a mini heart attack myself when I saw this thread at the top, then I saw it was my old one.

I don't think players' trade value fluctuate that much based on an injury that should heal to the point of not being an issue at all. GMs trust their scouts and evaluation analysis of a player. I'm not saying Swihart's value is as high now as it was last winter, but my point is that I feel it is significantly higher than Salty's was at the same age. People say I'm all about numbers, but I'm not. You can't compare vastly different sample sizes and circumstances. Harmony almost always uses WAR as his valuation methodology, but he didn't even respond to my point about how these two ranked in WAR at the same ages as Swihart is now. Salty had the worst WAR in MLB as a catcher, while Swihart places about in the middle. So, he goes to career wRC+ not what thier wRC+ was at the same age as Swihart is. Salty's numbers were greatly improved by his big 2013 season at age 28 and a little bit more by his 2015 season at age 30. Even if you expand his sample size from 2007 to 2012 (age 22-27), his wRC+ was 88 (.720 OPS), and he placed 37th out of 48 in WAR by catchers. If you increase the sample size PAs to 1500, he placed 27th out of 31 in catcher WAR. Swihart places 23rd out of 47 in the metric Harmony almost exclusively uses to compare players. Swi is average and Salty was close to the worst. They were not close to even at the same points in their careers. True, Salty was traded the following season- mid year, and I get Harmony's point about Swi's value going up or down based on how well or poorly he does over the first 3-4 months of the 2017, but I'm comparing what both guys were at the same time in their careers, and I think clearly Swi has more value. We all know Swihart's biggest weakness is defense, but from 2007-2009, Salty placed 37th out of 37 in catcher defense according to fangraphs. Swihart placed 40th out 48 from 2015-2016 (ahead of Salty, I might add, who's at #45). That's not great, but it's not the worst either.

I don't think we should really count on anything from Smith this year. I expect him to help maybe by July, but I don't think we should plan on it happening.

Kelly has looked really good a number of times in his career. He's had as many bad times too. He clearly has nasty stuff. I have hope in him as he enters prime years, but my point is that we should not count on him and plan on not getting an 8th inning pitcher (I think two), because of some strong confidence in him based on a month or two of good pen pitching late this past summer.

MLBTR... The Red Sox are showing “strong” interest in Holland, tweets WEEI’s Rob Bradford, who adds that the right-hander will take about six weeks off following his showcase before he resumes his offseason throwing program.

Could happen, but planning on it to happen is dangerous.

I feel like I'm talking to a robot!

The Fielding Bible does only award one award per position, but they do provide their scoring tally, which is very telling. HanRam got 2 points at 1B (13th). Pedey scored 114 points- 10 ahead of Kinsler. Shaw scored 22 points at 3B (9th). Bogey got absolutely zero votes at SS. (17 did.) He came in 11th last year. Brock Holt, yes Brock Holt, got 2 points in LF (16th) JBJ got 82 points in CF (4th) Betts got 116 in RF. Nobody had him below 2nd. Leon got 3 points (21st)

Yeah, it has gotten better. I guess I'll never get over the Palmeiro fiasco. I'm a big fan of The Fielder's Bible too.

In my opinion, we need 2 eight inning guys, and when Smith returns, we'll be deeper.

Still not really an answer.

I'd kinda like to get Hernandez some reps at 3B, but Moncada needs all the time he can get there.

My guess is the bidding will be less on Beltran than the longer term guys, so I think he should be our plan A and plan B- after we secure a RP'er or two, that is.

RP #1 need. Beltran high on list. Good read: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/red-sox-offseason-rumors-interest-carlos-beltran-encarnacion-morales-holliday-bullpen-fernando-abad-tender.html

I'm afraid the asking price will be way too high. I'm willing to overpay for greatness at the TOR, but there's a limit. I would not give JBJ, ERod & Swihart, but I might give that for Quintana and Robertson, or maybe just JBJ, Pom & Swi for Sale.

soxprospects.com has this projected for our AAA infield next year: C: Swihart 1B: Travis 2B: Hernandez 3B: Moncada SS: Dubon They have Devers and Kopech starting off in AA.

Agreed. I'm not for massive unbalanced trades, but when an ace is involved, I have to stop and consider it. I know Guerra has lost value, but I wonder if a JBJ, Margot, Espinoza & Allen trade would get us Sale or Quintana, or would JBJ, Devers, Owens and Espi get the job done? (Then, sign Beltran & Hill)

So, maybe the CWS are going to go into sell mode. This from MLBTR: What does seem clear is that the White Sox will not continue to pursue shorter-term, expensive veterans to build around their core. “We have taken the approach for a number of years that we were focused on a short-term success,” Hahn said, specifying that the team was no longer interested in continuing that course because it “realize a better position for the long-term is a more prudent path.” Hahn didn’t prime fans for a massive rebuilding effort, though. He suggested that the club still has hopes of winning next year, but that the offseason “targets will have a little bit longer fits in nature.” But there does still appear to be a real possibility of some deals involving the team’s veterans. Hahn explained: “Should we go to the position of selling off assets, looking toward a more long-term future, the market will dictate how deep of a cut that is. That would also be based on the return for some of our players. The market plays a huge role. … The other part is how your players are valued by the industry. We would not be just trading a younger piece for a younger piece. We would want to diversify the use of players, depending on the depth and strength of the roster. You may look at five or six spots to improve on.”

Yes, but the award is a sham.

Apples to Oranges. By the time Salty was 24, he had over 800 PAs and placed last in catcher WAR out of all catchers with 800+ PAs from 2007-2009. Number 33 out of 33 who qualified. His OPS at the time was .703 and he had a wRC+ of 81. Swihart has less than 400 PAs in MLB- spread over 2 seasons. Even with his tiny sample size compared to most catchers with over 350 PAss ince 2015, Swihart still placed 23rd out of 47 in WAR +1.9 (just ahead of David Ross) and has a wRC+ of 92 (T20th out of 47). Do you really think Swihart has the same trade value as Salty had at age 24-25?

I guess, if we lose out on plan A & B, he might be an option, but I think he stays with CLE.

I've never thought EE was a good idea due to the years and blockage of our prospects as soon as 2018.

If we were to sign these three guys to what MLBTR projects, we'd just be a little over the luxury tax: $17M x 3 Hill $14M x 1 Beltran $8M x 2 Ziegler I think we still might have to trade for another RP'er, but I'd be happy with these three.