moonslav59

I actually like Madden.

If we had Miller, we could have traded Margot and others for something else. Even if we kept Margot, we'd be better off.

MN unload the guys they didn't want during the season. I guess they tried to move E Sanatan but wanted too much. No one will trade with SD this offseason. Not sure about that. They will be under a microscope. Do the Sox really want Votto from CIN? I don't see them moving any of their young arms. Agreed, but I would give Cincy Pablo as a salary balancer and a bunch of prospects for Votto. There aren't too many guys on ATL that I'd be interested in. Adonis Garcia for 3B? With Moncada and Devers, I think we may look for a shorter term 3B solution, if any. TB won't trade within the division. It's difficult but not impossible Sonny Gray is toast and the A's roster is meager at best. Gray may comeback, but I'd like to see it before we trade for him, and if we wait for that, his stock will go up. With all the changes in the front, I don't see AZ dumping many players. Though maybe they would be inclined to grab some Sox prospects that they are fond of? Could have inner track on this one. Jake Lamb will not be traded, but it's fun to dream. Goldschmidt is a dream, for sure. I don't see any pen pieces that jump out there. Greinke could be available, if they go rebuild mode, but can we afford him and Price? Do we want to pay that much? I think not. PHI has some great young arms, but I don't see them moving them at all. Well, maybe for some young bats like Moncada, Devers, Basabe, S Travis or Swihart. Would MIL want to sell high on Hernan Perez? He would be good IF depth. Does Zach Davies have a lot of upside? They do have some nice pen arms. I like Davies, but at 23, he'd be costly. Maybe if we take Garza off their books ($17.5M owed for 2017 and 2018 buyout), they'd lessen the return demanded. LAA only has Trout. Maybe Cam Bedrosian? COL has some great bats, but not at the position we would need. This team is on the upswing and I don't think they'd trade any young guys. I also don't trust offensive stats fro COL players, unless their road OPS care solid. CWS has two aces that we'll talk about all winter. They also have David Robertson and Todd Frazier, and if they go into rebuild mode, they'll look to trade their salaries and short-term commitments too. PTT has some intriguing pieces like Kang. I think they still see themselves as being in a window to win now with McCutchen. Too bad we couldn't get AM Does MIA want to move Stanton? Would Sox want that contract at DH? Probably No and No, but if we included JBj or Beni in the deal, he could play LF. KC has some great arms, but I'm not sold on them dumping what brought them a title. Word is they want to cut salary. Maybe Wade Davis?

What MLB teams are in "rebuild mode" and may have players we need? Here are the worst MLB teams by record (least wins): 59 MN 68 SDP, CIN, ATL & TBR 69 OAK & AZ 71 PHI 73 MIL 74 LAA 75 COL 78 CWS & PITT 79 MIA 81 KCR (apparently looking to cut salary)

Free Agent Options at Our Positions of Need Relief Pitchers: John Axford, Joaquin Benoit, Jonathan Broxton, Buddy Carlyle, Brett Cecil, Santiago Casilla, Aroldis Chapman, Jesse Chavez, Tim Collins, Aaron Crow, Wade Davis *, Michael Dunn, Dana Eveland, Neftali Feliz, Jason Grilli *, Luke Hochevar, Greg Holland, J.P. Howell, Kenley Jansen, Casey Janssen, Kevin Jepsen, Brandon League, Boone Logan, Javier Lopez, Brian Matusz, Mark Melancon, Joe Nathan, Josh Outman, Yusmeiro Petit, Cesar Ramos, Francisco Rodriguez *, Sergio Romo, Marc Rzepczynski, Fernando Salas, Sergio Santos, Joe Smith, Craig Stammen, Drew Storen, Josh Tomlin, Jordan Walden *, Brad Ziegler Third Basemen: Daniel Descalso, Martin Prado, Justin Turner, Luis Valbuena Catchers : Drew Butera, Jason Castro, A.J. Ellis, Ryan Hanigan*, Nick Hundley, Jonathan Lucroy *, Wilson Ramos, David Ross, Chris Stewart, Kurt Suzuki *, Josh Thole, Matt Wieters DH: (not all listed) Edwin Encarnacion (1B), Jose Bautista (RF), Carlos Beltran (LF), Mark Trumbo (1B), Kendrys Morales* (1B), Adam Lind (1B), Matt Holiday *(LF), Michael Saunders (OF)

If we do go for a DH type, I think it should be for as short a term as we can bargain for- maybe 1 or 2 years. That would likely exclude EE, but maybe Bautista or Beltran would fit the bill. Too bad Jose B can't play 3B anymore. (He hasn't since 2011.)

The number one weak area going into next season is relief pitching. That has to be addressed due to losing 3 free agents and the weakness of some we had hoped better from, such as Abad. We have a lot of promise in the pen, but most is speculative, at best. Does anybody really have a lot of faith in Barnes, Hembree, Kelly, Scott and the returning Carson Smith? We had a lot of issues with our pen this year. It looked okay at the end of the season, but let's not kid ourselves. Our pen was not good overall. Subtract from that the probable loss of... Ziegler 30 IP 1.52 ERA Uehara 47 IP 3.45 ERA Tazawa 50 IP 4.17 ERA That's 127 IP out of 470 IP or 27%. Our pen had a 4.8 WAR. Ziegler (0.8), Uehara (0.6) and Tazawa (0.2) accounted for 33% of the RP'er WAR. Zeigler and Uehara were in our top 4 and accounted for almost 30% of our pen WAR. This is clearly our weakest link. This is what our pen looks like with no additions: Closer: Kimbrel RP2: R Ross (until C Smith returns) RP3: Kelly RP4: Barnes RP5: Hembree RP6: Scott RP7: Abad (out of options) Others: (maybe Buch or Pom), Elias, Workman, Martin, N Ramirez and possibly Owens or Johnson converting from starters. I would rate 3rd base as our second weakest area. Shaw didn't get it done last year and is likely to be marginal at best. I doubt Sandoval can return to that position and he may be more apt to fit the DH role against RHP if at all. I also now doubt Moncada based on what has been happening. Is he the second coming of Castillo or a true ML player in the making? We can get by for a while but I would go for a legitimate ML third baseman and not pin hopes on so many iffy scenarios. Trade the ones we have if need be. I see no reason to imply Moncada may be comparable to Castillo. Moncada's sample size in tiny, and most of his issues are with defense and striking out. My biggest worry is his defense and how long it might take him to become ML ready on defense. That's why I have mentioned DH for him, until he learns a position. I know that sounds like a contradiction, but MLB players do learn things in practice too. DH is also in need of change. If we could get Beltran, then we would have an excellent ML talent with some power to fill the bill for a while. Others, like Young and or Sandoval might help there. If we significantly improve the pen and find a one year fiz at 3B, I think the DH spot might be okay with a Pablo-Young, Swihart-Young or Moncada-Young platoon. If they struggle, DH's are easier to find mid season than anyone else. Catching is also in need of improvement as probably both our main catching talents are likely to put up weak hitting numbers. Maybe we look within at Swihart. I rate that as our 4th weakest area. I do think our catcher offense is likely to be a weak point, but with 3 catchers showing promise, I think we'll go with what we got. If we end up trading Swihart, we may pick up a vet for a short term deal. SP is not a weakness except when we get into the playoffs. Then only Porcello and perhaps E-Rod can do the job. If a chance comes up for DD to snare a good young SP prospect, without giving away the store, why not take it? Clearly the likelihood of that happening is low but to be competitive in the POs we need some help. I'm always for exploring ways to improve the rotation from or near the top, but with Buch likely returning, we'll have 6 guys that finished in the top 30 in ERA- for one half or the other in 2016. None seemed like a fluke, so I think we'll stand pat here, unless Quintana or Sale become available. Even then, the return cost cannot be too high.

I said I'm think what they'd want for Frazier is too much. I'm not for giving up too much for Frazier. If we could get Robertson too, who is signed through 2018, then I'd think about overpaying. I would not give Swihart for Frazier. I do not think TShaw, Barnes and Owens is a significant overpay. I'm sure Harmony would say it's a massive underpay. I'm using Frazier as an example, because he is a one year fix that would cost less than a multi-year fix. I'm not a huge Frazier fan, but I'll take him over Valbuena.

And, as of right now, he's plan C for 2017. A- Leon (or Leon/Vazquez platoon) B- Vazquez (or Vaz-Leon platoon) C- Swihart as part of some sort of platoon.

For what we ended up paying Price, we could have had both.

I'm not penciling him in either.

He's got an .829 OPS in 24 ABs in the AFL. 10 Ks.

He's got one year left on his deal at $7.5M. Who they want back might depend on how they are approaching 2017. If they want to try hard to win in 2017, they will want ML talent. If they go into rebuild mode, they might take prospects. They may try to play it both ways and take 4 years of team control of T Shaw plus maybe Matt Barnes and Henry Owens. I'd like to see us try to get David Robertson as well, so maybe we can offer Pomeranz, TShaw and Owens for Robertson and Frazier. That may be too much to give, but I'm not sure about this either: Swihart, T Shaw, Barnes and Johnson.

I have to think DD will fill the pen hole(s). The other holes are DH and 3B, but with Moncada and Devers so close to ML ready, I can see waiting it out a bit. Beltran might be a short term option for DH, since he can play LF at NL parks, but maybe finding a one year 3B (Todd Frazier) fix might be in store.

It is hard to find great pitching in the draft after the top 5 or 10 picks.

At the time, I thought the $36M/4 for Andrew Miller was a good deal for the Yanks and thought we should have out bid them. We could have has ERod and Miller.

I once caused a kid to blow a chunk of tomato from his Italian Sandwich out his nose.

Man oh man, I wish we had signed Andrew Miller!

I had soda coming out of my nose on that one!

Totally agree. There is one area that modern winning teams all seem to excel at: the bullpen. Why can't we ever have guys like Andrew Miller?

The team was a 98 Win team, according to its Pythagorean W-L, with the worst 3B and the stinky pen. I agree that both of those areas are areas of weakness that can be upgraded. I don't agree that they are 'glaring' weaknesses. 30th in WAR at 3B is a major hole not just a hole. Our stinky pen is losing three of its best pitchers: Ziegler, Uehara and Taz. Worse than "stinky" is a hole. The pen issues will be addressed by DD, and Buch or Pom will be part of the pen, barring injury to a SP'er.

If there is a hole, it's at DH. If Hanley is DH, then there's a hole at 1B. If Shaw is at 1B, there's a hole at 3B. We cannot count on Shaw to fill a hole at 1B or 3B. Shaw is a hole right now. He may bounce back, but how can you call a guy who lost his job to Hill/Holt/Moncada anything but a "hole"?

You're focusing way too much on offensive OPS at 3B. We've got enough offense elsewhere on the team that a weak hitter at 3B is tolerable. And Shaw is an elite defender, he returned a lot of defensive value as a third baseman. That's why despite his poor bat, he returned average value by bWAR at 3B last year and why 3B is not a hole. It's an area for potential improvement, that's not the same thing as a "hole." Shaw is an "elite defender" at 1B NOT 3B! He's average at 3B at best. He was 17th out of 33 third basemen in UZR/150 (+1.6). The team placed 15th in UZR/150 at 0.0, so it's not just about offense and OPS at 3B. Look, I said we could still win with some "holes" in the line-up, but that doesn't mean it's not a hole. We had a massive hole at 3B this year. We were clearly the worst in MLB, and it wasn't close. How much worse did the have to be for you to call it a "hole"? I've also said that our two best prospects play 3B and we have Pablo returning. We should improve at 3B, even if we don't make any acquisitions there, but as we look right now, I'd say we rate to finish in the bottom 20-25% in 3B WAR next year. We can argue semantics on whether that is a "hole" or not, but we do look to be weak at 3B in 2017, unless Moncada progresses quickly or a Pablo miracle materializes. I'm fine with not making any 3B additions. I agree we can absorb a couple holes and still have a top 3 offense next year. We'll probably be below average at 3B, C and DH, assuming we add nobody on offense. As for the bullpen that's the same thing. We can improve there. If we don't make a major move our bullpen should probably still be adequate however. Unlike 3B I do predict DD will make a move or two to brace up the middle of the bullpen. I diagree. Losing Ziegler alone is huge. Uehara and Taz will also be missed. Carson Smith is a big question mark and may not return until June. Kelly, Scott and others looked good in September, and maybe Buch or Pom will be in the pen next year, but I'm not thrilled with Kimbrel, we lack a seriuos #2 RP'er who can close, if needed, and we are relying too much on Ross, Barnes, Hembree to not take a step back. I agree that DD will address the pen "hole". The question is, by how much.

When you're in a pennant race, urgency does change some priorities. The injuries to Young and Holt forced the need for a LF'er. Since Swihart's defense as a catcher seemed to be a major issue for the Sox brass, one can easily see why finding another position for him made sense. He may never be our catcher of the future, and we needed a LF'er badly. I can see the point being made about impeding his progress as a catcher, but we were looking to win, and I still think Swihart will never pass Vaz on the catching depth chart due to the defensive disparity. We thought we had Beltran at the deadline, but a last minute change by the Yanks left us high and dry in LF. That's why Beni was "rushed". I had no issues with that call at the time. Our putrid play at 3B through August and September did make calling Moncada up an easier choice. Yeah, he looked bad in his tiny sample size, but I think he learned some lessons. He's playing in the fall league, so I don't think we slowed his growth by calling him up.

Andrew Miller is the man!