moonslav59

I agree, the Porcello signing was not "long term", but my point was about how much of the contract is within prime or just barely post prime. I was "not for" the Price signing, but I realized that FA gambles have to be made in order to save the farm. Signing mid level free agents to 2-4 year deals is less risky, but the impact has less of a chance at helping as well. The 2013 championship showed that theory can work, but it's still hard to justify the Vic and Dempster signings. Stanton is a once in a generation type player. He is signed from ages 28-37. To me, that is only maybe 2 seasons past prime, 2 seasons barely post prime, and 6 in prime. At $25M a year against the luxury tax, I could envision him giving us 4-6 $30M+ value seasons and maybe even a couple $40M+ value seasons. That would more than make up for his post prime seasons. My biggest concern is his injury history, not a flop. The other downside to Stanton is that not only are we risking a decline from Stanton, and taking up $25M on the luxury tax for 10 years, but we'd lose the rest of our current farm top prospects. I am not "for" trading for Stanton at any cost, but I think we need to look into it. Betts will be 25 next season. If we extended him this winter to 10 years, we'd have him from ages 25 to 34. Virtually every season would be in prime or 8 in prime and two is barely post-prime years. This is way different than any 8-10 year FA deal ever signed. Way different. I'm not saying both of these deals don't have a high risk, but I'd look into both, especially Betts. In my opinion, Betts will not sign this winter after a "bad year", although maybe he will be thinking "what if,..." and go for the security. Who knows. I'd kick the tires on both.

Of course, disagreeing with a choice here and there is fine. In an overall sense, this pen has way over performed, and it's one reason we are in first place. Blaming JF for our pen's season performance just doesn't make sense to me.

His whole MLB career is a tiny sample size. His sample sizes at each slot are teenie-weenie.

Yes, I am glossing over a 3 game sample size- good or bad. It doesn't mean it is meaningless, and if we continue losing I'll begin to get worried, but this team is not this bad. They likely are not as good as the 16-4 stretch Sox as well. If I had to choose which team we are closer to- the last 3 days or the 20 games before, I'd choose the 16-4. I think they are somewhere in between, hence the term "gray area". I hope we get healthy for the playoffs, and if we are, I will not look back at these 3 games and stress over them.

I'm glad it's the O's. We won't have to face them in the playoffs.

There is a lot of gray area between ignoring a 3 game sample size and proclaiming the end of the world as we know it.

Okay. Based on3 games, we suck and will always suck forever.

We just won 16 out of 20 games before dropping two games, and that shows "zero life"? Wow. You guys are tough.

I get it, but you are assuming 3-4+ 3-4 IP each and every 4 games. And, when one fails to go even 1 IP, you're stuck with just 4 pitchers to end the game and be ready for the next one. You'd probably need one of the 4 to be a 2-3 IP type RP'er leaving just 3 short guys.

More than just Kershaw...

I'm one of the biggest supporters of avoiding large and long contracts. I've posted countless threads shwoing how most of each year's biggest contracts not only failed to meet expectations, but they often fail right out of the gate. That being said, I loved the Porcello extension, because all the years fell within prime. Extending Betts for 10 years would place most of the years in prime and the rest near prime. Stanton is different. He's 27 and has 10 years left. The luxury hit is only $25M though, and he'll be be 33 during the 6th year of the deal. That's about 5-6 years in prime, 2-3 years close to prime, and the final 3 years at ages 35-37. That's not great, but it's not 38-40 either. The injuries are worrisome, but to me, Stanton is like Sale. These opportunities only come along once a decade or so, and I feel we should at least kick the tires.

I suggested, what I called, "tandem starters" a few years back, but mostly as an idea for maybe the 4 and 5 slot only. The idea of having 8 tandem starters on a roster seems too problematic, unless one or two of them could be used more than once every 4 days. The plan would only work, if you were pretty much sure the tandem would get you to the 8th or 9th inning very often. I'm not sure how realistic that is. Having only 4 short relievers could be big trouble, if they don't get you at least into the 7th inning just about every game.

Has anyone ever done a study? Remember the year we swept the Rickies in the WS, they had an incredible hot streak just to make the playoffs, then they ona nd on, until they met the Sox. I realize that is just one example, but I am wondering about studies on this matter.

I've been highly critical of JF for a while, but there is no way he should get any flack for his pen decisions. Before the year started, I felt our pen was our biggest weakness, and that was before Thornburg and Ross went out for the season with injuries, and Carson Smith's scheduled return moved from about June to possibly September. I'm not sure if JF deserves much of the credit, but he certainly should not take any blame for how this pen has performed this year. Getting a close to A performance from a pen that includes these IP'd by these RP'ers is something to be commended: 60 Barnes 54 Hembree 36 Abad 30 Scott 28 Boyer 27 Workman 17 Tayloer 35 Others Pitchers with brighter expectations: 54 Kimbrel 0 C Smith 0 Thornburg 9 R Ross 42 Kelly Our pen ranks 6th in RP'er WAR. Considering what JF had to work with, who can complain? 5th in xFIP (3.88) 5th K/BB (3.01) T4th WHIP (1.20) 2nd ERA- (71)

Yeah, it's a small sample size, but Bogey does have a hit in 8 of his last 10 games and reached on a BB in one of those two oh -fer games. He's 12 for his last 35 ABs and has reached base in 18 of his last 41 PAs. Let's hope this has been more than a blip.

There's a stark difference between signing HRam and extending Betts/ trading for Stanton: age and/or recent production

I had hoped we signed him to play 3B, but then I heard about Pablito. I didn't really like the signing, but I felt it was a good attempt at filling a very high need without trading away top prospects. HRam is still young enough to have a long stretch of high productivity. I'm hopeful, but I would not project greatness going forward.

In theory, yes, but pulling a pitcher who is doing well after 4 IP might be hard, especially after you might not have much confidence in the next guy. Also, one has to expect the second guy might do poorly and need to be yanked after .1 to 2 IP putting a big strain on the 4 short guys.

I doubt we sign any RP'ers beyond the Boyer types. Maybe I'm being too hopeful with pitchers returning from injuries. We could be deeper than this year: Closer: Kimbrel RP2: Smith RP3: Thornburg RP4: Kelly RP5: Barnes RP6:Workman RP7: Hembree (out of options) RP8: R Ross RP9: Wright (if Price is starting) RP10: R Scott RP11: B Taylor RP12: A Maddox RP13: K Martin Others: Johnson, Beeks, Velazquez, Cosart, Haley, Elias, Owens, Poyner

Interesting concept. Finding 8 decent SP'ers might be tough, and having just 4 short guys could be highly problematic.

Hot & Cold are hard to project. I'm worried mostly about our health. Pedey JBJ Nunez Price Barnes (C Smith)

Our bullpen is over worked... We've been overworked at times, but our starters are 3rd in MLB in IP'd and 2 IP from the 2nd most. Our pen has pitched 34% or all out IP'd- one more percent than last year. Nobody hoped or expected Barnes and Hembree to have to pitch so much. 3-4 pitchers seem to be taking most of the IP (see 2016 below). Pen IP 60 Barnes 54 Hembree 54 Kimbrel 42 Kelly 36 Abad 30 Scott 28 Boyer 27 Workman 17 Taylor 9 Reed 9 Ross 7 Velazquez 6 Fister 5 N Ramirez 2 Martin 1 ERod In 2016, our pen pitched 33% of all the IP'd, but it was more spread out at the top: 6 guys from 47 IP to 67 IP 67 Barnes 55 Ross 53 Kimbrel 51 Hembree 50 Tazawa 47 Uehara 30 Ziegler 29 Layne 23 Buch 18 Kelly 13 Ramirez 13 Abad 24 Others

I smell trouble, too, but with so many injuries to the pen, the "mirage" did occur, and I'm giving JF some credit for that part of his job. Considering our #2 (Smith), #3 (Thornburg) and #5 (Ross) RP'ers have been out all year, our pen has done way better than expected.

Last 28 Days OPS 1.082 Vaz 1.019 Moreland .965 Devers .962 Beni .928 Nunez .892 Young .749 Bogey .705 JBJ .700 Leon .674 HRam .610 Betts .581 Holt OPS Against-- 30+ PAs unless indicated otherwise: .485 Abad (20 PAs) .507 Kimbrel .604 Fister .665 Pom .673 ERod .684 Sale .704 Barnes .714 Workman .728 Porcello .778 Reed .823 Hembree .838 Kelly (29 PAs) .892 Scott (24 PAs) 1.548 Boyer (17 PAs)

Looks like Bogey may have snapped out of it on his own.